Just adding a bit of info.
THE SITE:
- I've seen various descriptions of the site that CBM had to work with at the Lido. Some referenced 15-20 feet of water over most of the site. I'm sure that there were some parts that were sticking up, but I really don't think that there was anything there to prompt an idea for the 4th. He logically used the length of the property for 3 of the 4 par 5s, so my guess is that he wanted to use the width of the property for at least one of them. The South end was the better end with the Ocean and the starting point was sort of in the middle of that section- therefore I think that the North end was a better spot for it. Following that logic, it was much more realistic to put an interior body of water on that side. The lagoon had doors (or whatever they would have been called) to open it and close it from Reynold's Channel.
I'm attaching a few pics that show the initial site and then some of the construction work on the 4th hole. I think that they prove that there was nothing there that was found at all. 100% CBM's manufactured design.
THE INSPIRATION:
CBM- "The discussion which raged throughout the United Kingdom in 1901 and 1902 as to which was the best one-shot, two-shot and three-shot hole, showed that a large majority of the first class players considered this (the Alps) the best two-shot hole in the world and time has not in any measure altered that opinion. ...
I might say here that it was this "best hole" discussion in 1901 and 1902 that gave me the inspiration to build a classic golf course, the result being the National Golf Links of America. My experience in that undertaking, my study of golf construction, and heed of the criticisms of those entitled to criticize, all are expressed in the construction of the Long Beach course. This seems to me to answer a lot of the questions being posed here. He got the idea to do templates from the 1901-02 debate in the UK and he viewed the Lido as his chance to outdo his work at NGLA with additional experience and feedback.
Regarding the templates vs original holes:
1) sort of a Narrows template, but I'd argue that it's just the 2 bunkers that make it so. As far as I know, everything else on the hole is unique. The fairway contours are amazing, the green is one of a kind w/ vertical waves through it, and the drop off beyond is a key element.
2) CBM claimed that the green is a double plateau and was built after one of the prize greens selected by the judges. We don't have that entry. But the green is insane. If it really was taken from an entry, then the principal's nose is really all that is template like. The blind drive over the ridge with a speed slot seems like a CBM designed element here.
4) As mentioned in this thread, he got the spark of an idea from the 16th at Littlestone (a 460+ yard dogleg left), but then added a major twist to improve it in his mind by adding a fairway in the dunes as a short cut. CBM's version doglegs to the right and is so different overall with the water element, that I think it should qualify as his own hole. It became just about the most famous hole in the US and not because of any relation to Littlestone.
6) Original hole, but from JC Walsham. CBM mentioned that the green was like a mirror image of the road hole, but I think Walsham's submission was basically that as well. I still don't know if he ever credits JCW anywhere.
7) It has a hog's back in the fairway, but is there anything else about the hole that is templatey? He originally designed the hole without the fairway spanning trench bunker, but added that in the final plans. The sunken crescent bunker short and left of the green is a key element.
11) He called it a composite hole. I would think that means that he took elements from holes that he admired, but he never referenced them.
12) It has a punchbowl green, but the rest of the hole seems unique. There is some question as to whether he used MacIver's contest entry (3rd place), which had a diagonal carry and a substantial bunker short of the green (attached).
15) Simpson's design, mirror imaged.
17) CBM called it a composite hole, "based chiefly on the principle of the bunkers in echelon". But it was called Long and seems to resemble the 14th at TOC in certain ways, mainly with Hell bunker.
18) Mackenzie's entry. CBM put up the money himself for the contest and seemed to really like the hole. He said "As a finishing hole, I know of none that will give a golfer whose opponent has him one down a better chance to retrieve himself at the last hole than this one, unless it be the eighteenth at the National." If this was his true motivation for closing with it, he really valued giving the underdog a chance at a comeback on the 18th.
MacIver's 3rd place entry- has certain key elements that look like the 12th hole... if so, CBM just substituted in the punchbowl green instead. MacIver's concept for the bail out left and the additional room on the angle to the green over the cross bunker if you hug the water was pretty clever though.