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Steve_ Shaffer

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2021, 08:35:36 PM »

No doubt about it. My age restricted, gated development in the West Valley of Phoenix is experiencing a boom of potential buyers. New houses range from the upper 300s to about 1M with golf course lots at 200+. The developer can not build fast enough as  house sales are selling quickly. It used to take 6 months from signing to move in ready, now it it's 12-14 months. Resales are few and at a premium even though houses are significantly higher with bidding wars at times. At build out, we will have almost 6000 units, mostly single family houses and some attached villas. No high rise condos are allowed.


It's the amenities here that sell the houses. We have 3 golf courses, 2 clubhouses with restaurants,  3 outdoor pools and 1 indoor pool, 2 fitness centers, 1 400 seat theater, 20 pickleball courts with 16 more to be built, 8 tennis courts, bocce courts, meeting rooms for clubs, a softball field and a creative arts center. Golf is reasonably priced without any trail fee  or locker fees. One owns their own golf car. There is 1 director of golf and 2 head pros.  We do about 125,000 rounds/year.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2021, 12:11:49 PM by Steve_ Shaffer »
"Some of us worship in churches, some in synagogues, some on golf courses ... "  Adlai Stevenson
Hyman Roth to Michael Corleone: "We're bigger than US Steel."
Ben Hogan “The most important shot in golf is the next one”

Tommy Williamsen

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2021, 09:26:23 PM »
There are very few homes for sale at the golf/ski resort at which I live. Young families from DC, northern VA, and MD have been buying second homes like crazy. There are kids on the golf course again and all over the lake, tennis courses, and pool. It’s nice to see.
Where there is no love, put love; there you will find love.
St. John of the Cross

"Deep within your soul-space is a magnificent cathedral where you are sweet beyond telling." Rumi

John Emerson

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2021, 07:32:57 AM »
I’m trying to understand how anyone who has 40+ years left to live would move to the southwest.  Ie: southwest Arizona, Southern California valley etc.  It is steadily getting hotter and water access will be a major issue before the end of their life.  Without water, land is useless and worthless.  Seems extremely risky to me. 
“There’s links golf, then everything else.”

Niall C

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2021, 07:46:01 AM »
John

Perhaps it's a case that this pandemic has taught people to think more about the here and now ?

Niall

Jason Thurman

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2021, 09:30:42 AM »
I would say it's more that the pandemic has revealed a huge swath of the population that simply chooses not to believe in trite concepts like science. And also a huge swath of population that struggles to calculate risk. And also a huge swath of the population that believes all things can be accomplished if we just hold the Bezoses of the world upside down and shake the money out of their pockets.
"There will always be haters. That’s just the way it is. Hating dudes marry hating women and have hating ass kids." - Evan Turner

Some of y'all have never been called out in bold green font and it really shows.

Adam Lawrence

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2021, 09:55:10 AM »
I touched on this in an article in the current issue of GCA.


https://www.golfcoursearchitecture.net/digital/magazine/issue65/48/



Rob Day of master planners WATG says that he suspects the average age of residents in golf communities will go down, as the move towards home working means younger families don't need to live close enough to the office to allow commuting.


This, he says, will force communities to rethink the amenities they offer, and will be less seasonal, more full-time.
Adam Lawrence

Editor, Golf Course Architecture
www.golfcoursearchitecture.net

Principal, Oxford Golf Consulting
www.oxfordgolfconsulting.com

Author, 'More Enduring Than Brass: a biography of Harry Colt' (forthcoming).

Short words are best, and the old words, when short, are the best of all.

Kalen Braley

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2021, 10:30:08 AM »
I’m trying to understand how anyone who has 40+ years left to live would move to the southwest.  Ie: southwest Arizona, Southern California valley etc.  It is steadily getting hotter and water access will be a major issue before the end of their life.  Without water, land is useless and worthless.  Seems extremely risky to me.


Its not limited to those areas, you can throw in most other parts of California, Nevada, New Mexico, parts of Colorado, and Utah.

Ian Mackenzie

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2021, 12:04:37 PM »
Couple of other factors:


1. The new "Work from Home" possibilities have many Boomers (and others) saying to themselves: "why dont we live someplace nicer?"


2. Many young people in NY, MA and IL (at least) are fleeing to states with lower taxes and golf course communities offer instant infrastructure, recreation and immediate social engagement.

Steve_ Shaffer

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2021, 12:07:53 PM »
In my community, there are many who work at home. Even though it's an age restricted community, if you're under 55 with no children under 18, you can buy. The HOA rules allow up to 20% of residents to be under 55.


We are not private and their is no initiation fee,etc. However, residents have priority for tee times. We  do get many plays in the summer from locals as many residents here are "snow birds. "


Toll Brothers, a NYSE company,  is building a new gated residential golf community nearby without age restrictions. The " Nicklaus Design" course is open and will be private eventually. I understand that over 100 memberships have been sold. In the meantime, public play is allowed. Eventual build out will be about 2200 units. Their 30000sf clubhouse will open soon.


As far as water problems are concerned, we are planning for the future.


Don't forget that Florida and the Carolinas have many residential golf communities.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2021, 01:21:26 PM by Steve_ Shaffer »
"Some of us worship in churches, some in synagogues, some on golf courses ... "  Adlai Stevenson
Hyman Roth to Michael Corleone: "We're bigger than US Steel."
Ben Hogan “The most important shot in golf is the next one”

Lou_Duran

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2021, 05:41:07 PM »
Not long ago there was great concern that as the boomers downsized and died off, there would be a glut of suburban housing because younger, smaller generations tended to prefer higher-density urban areas and the flexibility of renting.  As a wealthier nation our fertility rate has continued its decline to below population replacement levels, further impacting the ownership of homes.


What has changed?  With all the gripes about modern golf on this site, it certainly can't be that golf has all of a sudden made a sharp 180° turn to became cool again.  Perhaps an answer is a politicized Federal Reserve "printing" money like a drunken sailor to enable out-of-control federal, state, and local governments to spend like there is no tomorrow?  "Free" walking-around money so we can sit on our butts and not only produce much of nothing, but consume whatever was inventoried with no concern for the emptying supply chains?


Is the beginning of the mother of all inflation here already?  I just had a meeting with my insurance agent to review why my home policy which went up 24% and my auto policies (on depreciating assets) up 15%.  Real estate is seen as a great hedge against inflation- home prices in many areas are up 20-50% year-over-year.  I suppose that there is some logic to buying a home especially on a golf course while interest rates are at historically low points.  But what happens when the economy crashes from the weight of debt and low productivity and people lose their jobs?  Placing bets on modern monetary theory bailing us out?


A benefit of youth is the innocence of not having experienced as many of life's up-and-downs over an extended period of time.  I see it often when relatively common weather events when viewed in an appropriate time horizon are instead attributed to "climate change".


Young folks do have more time to overcome mistakes.  Maybe the recognition/belief of the putative existential threats referenced in this thread may serve to reverse current migration trends to northern, cooler, wetter,  blue cities and states where "smart", "science-based" policies are creating Utopian living environments.  I am big on eating my own cooking.  My only wish is that I could live long enough to witness this migration.


   

Tom_Doak

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2021, 07:52:59 AM »
Lou:


You got it half right.  It’s the banks that create money nowadays, and they have been loaning it to “worthy” borrowers at historically low rates, which has driven up the price of assets.


Young families look at what their mortgage payment will be, and think they can afford a house, or a second house.  But the interest rate has artificially inflated the price of the house.  If interest rates ever go back to something more normal, house prices will drop in concert (because buyers can’t afford higher payments), and all these nice folks will be stuck with paying off a 500k mortgage on a home now worth 350k.


Haven’t we seen this movie recently?

Lou_Duran

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2021, 10:34:52 AM »
TD,


I am glad that you've discovered that home prices behave similarly to those of bonds, i.e. when interest rates go down, home and bond values go up.  Unfortunately, Newton's findings also apply to the social sciences.


After nearly a decade of ultra-low interest rates, might we expect a reversal in the not too distant future?  Typically, when inflation heats up, the response is for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.  But in this spend, borrow, and tax political frenzy with a compliant "independent" Fed already scratching at the bottom of the toolbox, what's going to give?  Price controls have been disastrous every time.  Repudiate interest payments and debt obligations, ultimately?


Please do explain to me how banks are creating money- maybe the half I don't get?  It was my understanding that the Fed was paying them a couple of points to hold large reserves (which with near zero interest rates paid on demand deposits, along with all the nickel-and-dime fees they now charge normal retail customers, it probably gives them the spread typically needed to cover variable costs).


I was under the impression that the primary way money is being created, electronically, is the Fed's expansion of its balance sheet by purchasing the bulk of the federal debt and other assets which carry high risk.  I've asked for someone to take me through the T-accounts (debits and credits) of how this works, but so far I just received general narratives (even an email to the research staff at the Dallas Fed a while back went unanswered).


Another likely contributor to the subject of this thread is related to the Fed interest squeeze, i.e. in its approach to accommodate spending and debt thereby punishing savers, mostly seniors, it has pushed people into much higher risk equity investments.  I know that there is not much sympathy for short-sellers among the general population, but there are many really crappy companies whose escalating stock prices can't be explained by past, current, and expected future performance.  The shorts are being covered, feeding further fuel into the stock market, and portfolio values continue to grow.


There is a connection between high stock prices and the feeling of economic well-being even affecting those who have relatively little invested in the market.  Those buying in golf communities are not the average Joe or the barista at your favorite caffeine joint.  They are those who earn enough to save (some 60% of Americans spend more or the same as they make; around 30% of Americans are estimated to have 401k accounts).  I suspect that the beneficiaries of the long-running stock market are feeling pretty good about their situation, especially if they lack much of an understanding of economics and possess a short memory.


Doubtful that I will be in the market for a golf course residence in the future, but my bet is that there will be some fantastic  buying opportunities in the next five to 10 years.  I've seen this cycle twice before, albeit when things hadn't gone out of balance as much as they are currently.  The exuberance of the real estate and stock markets will not continue for long, at least not on a real basis. But who knows, maybe we will all be deci$-millionaires and the yuan or a form of bitcoin becomes the reserve currency.  Brave new world!   

John Emerson

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2021, 12:47:56 PM »
I understand that what everyone is saying, but IF there is no water, that trumps everything.  Without water, nothing else matters, not even money.  Water is the root issue.  TD et al are implying principles that are relevant to an economy/region that does not have a water issue.  Your comparison of a 500k home being worth 350k when the rates rise is assuming water is prevalent. if there is no water, which we are trending towards in the west, those same homes are worth 0$.
“There’s links golf, then everything else.”

Tom_Doak

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2021, 03:30:09 PM »
I understand that what everyone is saying, but IF there is no water, that trumps everything.  Without water, nothing else matters, not even money.  Water is the root issue.  TD et al are implying principles that are relevant to an economy/region that does not have a water issue.  Your comparison of a 500k home being worth 350k when the rates rise is assuming water is prevalent. if there is no water, which we are trending towards in the west, those same homes are worth 0$.


John:


I understand what you are saying, and I agree, generally.  If there is no water in southern California, it isn't just going to be the homes in golf communities that are worth zero.  But, clearly, that risk has not been priced in by the market yet, because most people are in denial that things could go downhill that fast.


That is just a different point than the one I was trying to make.

William_G

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Steve_ Shaffer

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2021, 06:55:32 PM »

Facing a Colorado River shortage, Arizona prepares for the pain of water cutbacks


Arizona preparing for cutbacks on Colorado River water amid drought (azcentral.com)


Cadillac Desert: The American West and Its Disappearing Water, Revised Edition

https://www.amazon.com/Cadillac-Desert-American-Disappearing-Revised/dp/0140178244

« Last Edit: July 31, 2021, 08:20:30 PM by Steve_ Shaffer »
"Some of us worship in churches, some in synagogues, some on golf courses ... "  Adlai Stevenson
Hyman Roth to Michael Corleone: "We're bigger than US Steel."
Ben Hogan “The most important shot in golf is the next one”

John Emerson

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #17 on: July 31, 2021, 07:42:41 PM »
I bought this book about a month ago, and plan on reading it soon. I think I got the recommendation from this site…can’t remember though
“There’s links golf, then everything else.”

Steve_ Shaffer

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2021, 08:27:43 PM »

Arizona is ready to deal with a water shortage ... except for one thingOpinion: Arizona has plans in place to lessen the pain of a Colorado River shortage. But a key component - wells for farmers - remains highly uncertain.





Arizona is ready for a water shortage, except for one thing (azcentral.com)






Water Shortage | Center for the Future of Arizona (arizonafuture.org)

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"Some of us worship in churches, some in synagogues, some on golf courses ... "  Adlai Stevenson
Hyman Roth to Michael Corleone: "We're bigger than US Steel."
Ben Hogan “The most important shot in golf is the next one”

Mike_Trenham

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #19 on: August 01, 2021, 08:50:09 PM »
The thing I loved most about this article was how it noted the new residents were unsatisfied with the amenities and are seeking improvements.  That’s asinine if you are a buyer, why would owners at a development with record pace sales believe they need to upgrade things for the recent buyers? As the log time president of my club would often declare “If you don’t like it leave”.



Proud member of a Doak 3.

Lou_Duran

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #20 on: August 02, 2021, 02:38:31 PM »
Amen!


I used to get a kick of the numerous New Yorkers who would attend Ohio State and constantly whine about what a cowtown Columbus was, yet never seemed to leave.  Though the average sensitivity of the community was lowered through this ungrateful migration, the upside was that we had any number of really good pizza and sub restaurants.


We now have a similar phenomenon in Texas with the invasion of Californians and northeast immigrants.  They complain about state politics, the lack of public transportation, poor inter-city schools, and the most absurd, how hot it is (as if this was news!).


In this time of discontent driving the lives of so many people, can someone please explain why they keep on coming to such a terrible place?  One would think that our open borders, state and national, should be experiencing great movement in opposite directions.


As to the water issue, necessity is the mother of invention.  How does Israel handle its scarcity?  Our "progressive" friends believe in a Jetsons scenario for green energy.  The Romans built extensive aqueducts thousands of years ago.  Where is all the new technology to capture billions and billions gallons of rain water that flows down the drain?  Doesn't climate change and green energy orthodoxy spell significant upsides for desalination and food production?  I won't be moving to AZ, but do we really think that all the people who are lack brains and common sense?     

Jerry Kluger

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #21 on: August 02, 2021, 05:40:21 PM »
Yes, the banks are loaning money at low interest rates but the difference now is that they actually look at the borrower's ability to pay the mortgage which should reduce the likelihood of a housing market crash.  Those who choose to move for a new job etc., and will have to sell their house are the ones who are going to suffer.  The younger generations have for quite a few years now insisted on living in cities for everything that they offer but now they see how much better their life would be for their family outside of that city. 


Lou: they aren't moving to Texas for the weather - they are doing it for the cost of living.


I thought that climate change was projected to raise the earth's temperature by one degree Celsius over a period of time.  The current excessive heat and rain seems hard to point to as an affect of climate change.  I also just heard on the news that the vast majority of wild fires are caused by humans and there is no question that there has been a lack of forest management.  BTW: I watch ABC news and their weather reports always show actual temperatures in the west while they show the heat index in the east - probably done for effect but misleading.

Steve_ Shaffer

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #22 on: August 02, 2021, 07:47:33 PM »
People are moving from high tax states to states with lower real estate and state income taxes . NY & NJ  residents, for example  are paying high real estate and high state / local income taxes. PA, depending on where one lives, can pay high real estate taxes but has a low flat rate state income tax of 3%, although some counties ( Philadelphia & Allegheny, for example)  can add on  wage taxes.   California has a high state income tax but people are leaving to AZ, TX , NV where only AZ has a graduated state income tax maxing out at 4.5%. TX & NV have no state income tax.


In my AZ community, we and others are seeing a large influx of Californians.


As to amenities, AZ has a quirky law that a developer can control the HOA for up to 35 years from start. Consequently, amenities were built as the community grew. Sometimes, less than needed for a large community so we're now planning an expansion of the dining area in one clubhouse and 16 more pickleball courts. We now have 3  golf courses .   The HOA will transition to members soon.  Toll Bros is planning a 10 year building for their new residential gated golf community.


Mike Trenham's experience  doesn't apply in my community and I'm sure in Toll Bros new community. It's a business, not an old line club : That’s asinine if you are a buyer, why would owners at a development with record pace sales believe they need to upgrade things for the recent buyers? As the long time president of my club would often declare “If you don’t like it leave”.     
« Last Edit: August 02, 2021, 07:53:58 PM by Steve_ Shaffer »
"Some of us worship in churches, some in synagogues, some on golf courses ... "  Adlai Stevenson
Hyman Roth to Michael Corleone: "We're bigger than US Steel."
Ben Hogan “The most important shot in golf is the next one”

MKrohn

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #23 on: August 02, 2021, 10:58:05 PM »
Regardless of the tax advantages, you would need to drag me kicking and screaming to live in a community that is made up of members from my golf club. The amount of committees for a start would be mind blowing.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2021, 02:59:02 AM by MKrohn »

Sean_A

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Re: OT - "Young People Are Moving To Golf Communities"
« Reply #24 on: August 03, 2021, 02:39:16 AM »
Amen!


I used to get a kick of the numerous New Yorkers who would attend Ohio State and constantly whine about what a cowtown Columbus was, yet never seemed to leave.  Though the average sensitivity of the community was lowered through this ungrateful migration, the upside was that we had any number of really good pizza and sub restaurants.


We now have a similar phenomenon in Texas with the invasion of Californians and northeast immigrants.  They complain about state politics, the lack of public transportation, poor inter-city schools, and the most absurd, how hot it is (as if this was news!).


In this time of discontent driving the lives of so many people, can someone please explain why they keep on coming to such a terrible place?  One would think that our open borders, state and national, should be experiencing great movement in opposite directions.


As to the water issue, necessity is the mother of invention.  How does Israel handle its scarcity?  Our "progressive" friends believe in a Jetsons scenario for green energy.  The Romans built extensive aqueducts thousands of years ago.  Where is all the new technology to capture billions and billions gallons of rain water that flows down the drain?  Doesn't climate change and green energy orthodoxy spell significant upsides for desalination and food production?  I won't be moving to AZ, but do we really think that all the people who are lack brains and common sense?   

There isn't much need for invention to solve water issues. It takes political and population will power. Recycling water, using less water, using brackish water, upgrading pipelines work at the edges, important edges, but edges. Desalination plants by the dozens will be needed in the US.

Ciao
New plays planned for 2024: Nothing

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