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Mark Chaplin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #75 on: May 26, 2020, 02:10:12 AM »
David Davis your numbers give a 6% mortality rate.
Cave Nil Vino

Mark Pearce

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #76 on: May 26, 2020, 02:11:30 AM »
You can moderate the second wave just as you moderate the first, if people understand that there will be a need to bring back restrictions at some point.  Unfortunately neither the UK or US governments appear to be preparing their people for the need to re-introduce restrictions and I fear that when that happens, they won't be followed.


viruses exist now and forever, QED



"moderate" a viral wave?


was the first "moderated"?


"need" for restrictions based on what data?


"fear", based on what


obviously a wee bit late in the evening for you and possibly a few beverages imbibed


cheers
Oh dear.  Trying to be clever again?  Yes, the first wave was moderated.  Without the steps taken death tolls would have been far greater.  Countries that acted faster saw better moderation.


The likely need to re-introduce restrictions comes from epidemiologists, not me.  And the "data" comes from patterns of previous viral epidemics.  Rather than waste your time trying to be clever, you might want to Google the Spanish flu.  My fear is based on listening to behavioural psychologists in part, and politicians arguing against restrictions based on a failure to listen to the science.


If you're going to stalk me and try to be clever, please do better.  Alternatively, you could do something radical, like actually posting an opinion on GCA, rather than some vapid "+1".  This is the last time I reply to one of your posts, I have better ways to waste my time.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2020, 08:12:39 AM by Mark Pearce »
In June I will be riding the first three stages of this year's Tour de France route for charity.  630km (394 miles) in three days, with 7800m (25,600 feet) of climbing for the William Wates Memorial Trust (https://rideleloop.org/the-charity/) which supports underprivileged young people.

Jon Wiggett

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #77 on: May 26, 2020, 04:22:10 AM »

Mark,


it is an unfortunate effect of the effectiveness of the measures taken that because the number of cases is dropping some think that the whole thing was overblown. What is more saddening is that had the UK government locked down earlier the figures would have been dramatically better but the naysayers even louder. Without the measures we would have been looking at half a million to a million deaths in the first wave and as historically the second wave of a pandemic is worse who knows what the figure would have been.


As it is it is still early days. The virus has been in circulation for about 6 months but such pandemics usually last a couple of years so there is a long way to go. As for William G you are spot on. He has yet to make a serious post about anything let alone GCA. A right 'clartyhead' as we say in Yorkshire  ;D 

Tony_Muldoon

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #78 on: May 26, 2020, 04:36:40 AM »
As for William G you are spot on. He has yet to make a serious post about anything let alone GCA. A right 'clartyhead' as we say in Yorkshire  ;D


+1.  ;D
Let's make GCA grate again!

Mark Pearce

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #79 on: May 26, 2020, 08:11:26 AM »
As for William G you are spot on. He has yet to make a serious post about anything let alone GCA. A right 'clartyhead' as we say in Yorkshire  ;D


+1.  ;D
;D
In June I will be riding the first three stages of this year's Tour de France route for charity.  630km (394 miles) in three days, with 7800m (25,600 feet) of climbing for the William Wates Memorial Trust (https://rideleloop.org/the-charity/) which supports underprivileged young people.

John Mayhugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #80 on: May 26, 2020, 09:37:04 AM »
I think that a lot of the frustration in the US and elsewhere comes from inconsistent communication and goals.

The restrictions imposed here were explained as necessary to "flatten the curve" and thus prevent overwhelming the health care system with covid patients. Where I live (Kentucky), hospitalizations have been quite low. But rather than adjust restrictions to this new reality, the focus seemingly changed to one of ensuring few people get infected. A noble goal, but not realistic IMO. Since policies are set by edict under "emergency powers," this sort of change in goals occurred with no debate.

The lack of state and national discussion about what we are trying to do is what creates most of the friction and frustration that I see. I, for one, think that after two months, there is no longer a need for authoritarian decision making. We have enough information to debate and set policies, and perhaps reset/re-clarify goals. I can live with what a more representative government decides, but not with having a king doing what he thinks is right. This applies to both my state and national "leadership."

My only real fear of travel is getting stuck somewhere. I understand that the spread of a virus can be unpredictable and that a second wave could cause issues. But surely a more understandable playbook (including fixed goals) can be developed and shared. It's a lot lower risk traveling to a place that is focused on curve flattening than it is one that wants to keep everyone from getting sick.

Lou_Duran

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #81 on: May 26, 2020, 12:32:57 PM »
John Mayhugh,


At least since Teddy Kennedy decided to bork Bork, whatever civil discourse we enjoyed began its slide down the proverbial slippery slope.  It gained unstoppable momentum when Mrs. Clinton thought she had gamed the election, quit working, and the unthinkable became a reality.


I agree with most of what you write, but I don't think the frustration is due to "inconsistent communications and goals". It is the content of these, communications and goals, that for many of us see as being in conflict with the "science", the "data", and the so-called stated goals.


No matter what Trump says or does, half of the elected government, most of the bureaucracy (whose pay is guaranteed and role is expanded), the opinion makers (the networks, Times, Post, etc., Hollywood and entertainment, and the Academy), and many of those who are not directly hurt today (some who are receiving more money for not working than if they returned to their jobs) rail with ferocity against him.  Like the president should be responsible for New York's and the northeast corridor's lack of respirators and virus specific test kits.


As to William G and the responses from the UK trio. I never met the guy but I am told that he is greatly involved in golf and this site, including attempting to revive the King Putter by hosting the event at Bandon.  If I have the right guy, he is a dentist, so his knowledge and understanding of "science" and the "data", especially as these relate to health issues, probably outstrip by a substantial margin those of professionals working with patents, watering and caring for decorative plants, and growing turf grass for golf. Just because he may not bat from the Left doesn't make his OT comments any less valuable or out of line than those from that side.  I am just saying, among friends of course!  ;)


Asserting how much worse of we would have been had the government not shut our countries down is speculation at best.  There are "data" suggesting otherwise, e.g. Sweden's experience, American states that didn't take draconian measures, areas that didn't condemn sick seniors to nursing homes where they spread the virus and were left mostly to fend for themselves.  An enterprising PhD candidate without a festering statist bias might consider as a thesis topic the correlation of C-19 deaths to the major source of funding for various levels of assisted living and nursing homes.  My bet is that Medicaid dependent facilities have a vastly disproportionate mortality rate.


In our treatment of the elderly, I am with Mr. Kavanaugh.  We should all hope to be loved and cared for like he does for his dad.


Lastly, I am unaware of a service or facility where I could go to be infected with C-19 and cared for through the illness.  I doubt that my insurance would cover it, but I'd be willing to pay a reasonable amount out-of-pocket to remove any chance of infecting anyone else and have the travel restrictions lifted.


This may sound whacky, but I found it odd when I visited the Ohio State Scarlet course while being renovated circa 2006 and learned that the majority of the elderly alumni were up in arms because it meant more than a year of golf lost during construction.  The course had only had minimal changes since opened in the late 1930s and it was overgrown with junk trees and suffering from extremely poor turf conditions.  The renovation was sorely needed.  Over a decade later and in a similar demographic, I am now much more sympathetic to their POV.






 




 


 

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #82 on: May 26, 2020, 12:57:09 PM »
I took Dad to both church and his favorite breakfast spot this morning. He understands the risk but loves Jesus and a cute waitress more than the long wait to die. Now if he could just shit it would be one hell of a day.

Jon Wiggett

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #83 on: May 26, 2020, 12:57:49 PM »

Lou,


Sweden currently has the highest death rate per head in the world at the moment. Had the US the same rate you would be adding another 50% to the number of deaths.



Peter Pallotta

Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #84 on: May 26, 2020, 12:58:04 PM »
Some good exchanges.
From where I sit, and in most every jurisdiction you care to name, the public policy missteps have been many and varied. That's not to criticize anyone or play Monday morning quarterback: everyone was scrambling to understand this virus and do their best. But it is to suggest that, moving forward, political leaders and health experts might be wise to better acknowledge and/or explain and/or open up a fuller dialogue with those who disagree with them re: the complexities involved. Whether we like it or not, policy and politics and personality will be increasingly intertwined in the months ahead. The ethical injunctions and deference to data that some political leaders have relied on up to this point will only resonate now with those who already agree with them (and have all along).
Peter

« Last Edit: May 26, 2020, 01:00:29 PM by Peter Pallotta »

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #85 on: May 26, 2020, 01:03:54 PM »
Does anyone really believe that we could have cancelled the Super Bowl? I was already insisting, with no resistance, on single rider carts long before the game. My daughter had just returned from China. So let's not pretend only the politicians knew what was going on.

Joe Zucker

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #86 on: May 26, 2020, 01:13:55 PM »

Lou,


Sweden currently has the highest death rate per head in the world at the moment. Had the US the same rate you would be adding another 50% to the number of deaths.


Jon, what is your source for this? Johns Hopkins is showing Belgium as the largest per capita with Sweden 6th on the list at half their total.


https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Ulrich Mayring

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #87 on: May 26, 2020, 07:31:34 PM »
The real problem with Sweden can readily be seen in the data, but you have to stop over-simplifying and looking only at one or two isolated numbers. The death rate appears to be high, but it's gotten a lot better recently: right now you have a 55% chance of surviving hospitalisation. It used to be below 10% and I'm not shitting you. So, does anyone really believe that Swedish hospitals went from "totally deadly" to "you've got half a chance" in a few weeks? Are Swedish doctors all quacks?

Of course not. The worst performers in Sweden aren't the doctors, but the bureaucrats in charge of the data. They absolutely haven't the faintest idea what goes on in their country, except that their economy tanks anyway, because there is so much uncertainty about the future. Sweden had its place in the sun, when the world locked down and the Swedes could still move about freely in blissful ignorance what the virus was doing. Now Sweden is going to a dark place, because the world opens up again, but Sweden has made absolutely no progress whatsoever. They still don't have a clue, their curve is neither flattening nor steepening, because frankly, they don't have the right to even paint a curve from their abysmal data.

But the Swedish people sense that their situation hasn't improved and I believe that's a biggie. For all other countries, they've been through hard times, some have been through hell, but they now feel they're getting better. But there's nothing that Swedes can be optimistic about - their fate is to carry on blindly until a vaccine is found. Do not underestimate the psychological effect on a nation that feels it has no control over its situation.

And I'm not saying that lockdowns are inevitable. In fact, I think that most countries could have avoided them, had they been on top of their data. South Korea and Taiwan were and both did not need lockdowns and are in great shape. China did not need a lockdown either, but they had it anyway. Why? Because they could. There's a law in South Korea that cancels all privacy rights in times of a pandemic and that tells you all you need to know about how to avoid lockdowns. Masks are the other component you need and perhaps travel bans and cancellation of huge events. That's all, folks.

The entire point of a lockdown is to give you time to learn from others how to avoid one. Some countries have used that time to good effect and should be able to mitigate a second wave without harsh lockdowns. Sweden, however, has not deemed it necessary to learn.
Golf Course Exposé (300+ courses reviewed), Golf CV (how I keep track of 'em)

John Mayhugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #88 on: May 26, 2020, 08:44:40 PM »
As to William G and the responses from the UK trio. I never met the guy but I am told that he is greatly involved in golf and this site, including attempting to revive the King Putter by hosting the event at Bandon.  If I have the right guy, he is a dentist, so his knowledge and understanding of "science" and the "data", especially as these relate to health issues, probably outstrip by a substantial margin those of professionals working with patents, watering and caring for decorative plants, and growing turf grass for golf. Just because he may not bat from the Left doesn't make his OT comments any less valuable or out of line than those from that side.  I am just saying, among friends of course!  ;)
Perhaps William G has vast knowledge of the subject, but his posts often read like poorly formed sound bites. Combine that with an unwillingness to post under his full name, and I don't place much weight on his opinions. I'm generally happy to listen to someone that explains their ideas, though. You may disagree with Pearce, Muldoon, and Wiggett, but they do at least try to discuss a topic.

Following your logic about superior subject matter knowledge & scientific understanding, then clearly you would defer to professionals in the field like Dr Fauci. Or are you thinking that a dentist that supports the KP is a better source of analysis?

Confirmation bias infects so much of the discussion of data related to this virus. It's mostly politics now, as you alluded to.

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #89 on: May 26, 2020, 09:05:21 PM »
I don’t think anyone who has continued to work in an essential business has the right to judge the opinions of those who have not.

Lou_Duran

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #90 on: May 26, 2020, 10:53:44 PM »
Thank God I mostly agreed with you John Mayhugh!


Which Dr. Fauci are you speaking of?  The one who just a short time ago was espousing strict long-term government controls all the way until the end of the year, or the one who now says we should be opening the economy consistent with the experience of regions and locales?


I know a few doctors personally and have heard many others take very different positions.   Of course, my logic has me being equally skeptical of scientists and doctors on the payroll of the government as I am of those in the private sector.  Having worked in both spaces for significant periods, I never noticed that the former had a monopoly on angels and the latter on self-serving, greedy types.


Ulrich- have you offered your expertise to those dumb asses running the great socialist utopia we know as Sweden?  And here I thought that the lock-down was to flatten the curve.  If such a progressive mecca is so slow to learn, we are screwed on coming up with a vaccine.  Maybe I can get into Trump's hydroxy stash!  ;)   I do have an appointment with my cardiologist in a couple of weeks.

Jon Wiggett

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #91 on: May 27, 2020, 04:18:26 AM »

Lou,


Sweden currently has the highest death rate per head in the world at the moment. Had the US the same rate you would be adding another 50% to the number of deaths.


Jon, what is your source for this? Johns Hopkins is showing Belgium as the largest per capita with Sweden 6th on the list at half their total.


https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality



It was a Telegraph article Joe which looked at total number of excess deaths not those assigned to Covid-19. In the end it is the total excess deaths above the average that will be the important figure as reporting of Covid-19 deaths is so different from country to country as to be useless for comparisons.


Jon

Ben Stephens

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #92 on: May 27, 2020, 04:48:06 AM »

Lou,


Sweden currently has the highest death rate per head in the world at the moment. Had the US the same rate you would be adding another 50% to the number of deaths.


Jon, what is your source for this? Johns Hopkins is showing Belgium as the largest per capita with Sweden 6th on the list at half their total.


https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality



It was a Telegraph article Joe which looked at total number of excess deaths not those assigned to Covid-19. In the end it is the total excess deaths above the average that will be the important figure as reporting of Covid-19 deaths is so different from country to country as to be useless for comparisons.


Jon


I echo Jon as I saw that article re Sweden where they didn't do a lockdown and number of cases are rising likewise in nearby Russia. The centre of the pandemic is now moving towards from North America to South America which I fear will be hit really hard.

Mike Hendren

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #93 on: May 27, 2020, 09:25:16 AM »
For me it's simple:  Is life precious and sacred?   

Lou, we get it - you are a conservative.  Let it go, buddy.

Bogey
Two Corinthians walk into a bar ....

Joe Zucker

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #94 on: May 27, 2020, 12:19:17 PM »

Lou,


Sweden currently has the highest death rate per head in the world at the moment. Had the US the same rate you would be adding another 50% to the number of deaths.


Jon, what is your source for this? Johns Hopkins is showing Belgium as the largest per capita with Sweden 6th on the list at half their total.


https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality



It was a Telegraph article Joe which looked at total number of excess deaths not those assigned to Covid-19. In the end it is the total excess deaths above the average that will be the important figure as reporting of Covid-19 deaths is so different from country to country as to be useless for comparisons.


Jon


Thanks for sharing Jon, that makes sense.  I agree that is probably the most reasonable way to measure what is going on given how bad most of the data is.


I also think it's important to consider how framing affects our perceptions.  On another blog, it was asked if we would be willing to wreck our economy and endure lockdowns to cut the heart disease death rate by 15-20% (I saw this a few weeks ago so the numbers may not be accurate), which is comparable to the US deaths due to covid? Asked another way, would we be willing to divert trillions of dollars to a researcher who claimed to be able to achieve this reduction?  I think most people would conclude it's not worth the cost.


On the other side, would we be willing to pay this to avoid all the pain that came with the deaths in Vietnam, terrorism, and school shootings combined? Many people would think the tradeoff would be worth it in this scenario.  When we talk about ten thousand, a hundred thousand, or a million, humans are really bad at interpreting those numbers.  They are all "a lot" and we tend to focus on what is most visible, regardless if it's truly the biggest issue.  I know this is not a perfect comparison because of the externalities associated with a virus, but I thought it was an interesting way to frame the question.

Mark Pearce

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #95 on: May 27, 2020, 01:03:50 PM »
The John Hopkins resource is excellent.  For those wanting really good statistical analysis of the position in the UK, Chris Giles is a statistician with the Financial Times and is on Twitter at @ChrisGiles_  His best estimate of UK deaths to date is 63,800.  The FT has various Covid material, including graphs of deaths in various countries and comparisons available free outside of its firewall.  Lou will be delighted to learn that, despite the fact he thinks I'm a Communist ( ;) ), the FT does not, unsurprisingly, have a left leaning agenda.
In June I will be riding the first three stages of this year's Tour de France route for charity.  630km (394 miles) in three days, with 7800m (25,600 feet) of climbing for the William Wates Memorial Trust (https://rideleloop.org/the-charity/) which supports underprivileged young people.

John Kavanaugh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #96 on: May 27, 2020, 01:09:15 PM »
Of the 63,800 how many were already discarded by society either emotionally or financially.

Dónal Ó Ceallaigh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #97 on: May 27, 2020, 02:06:45 PM »
I promised myself that I wouldn't discuss Sweden's approach to the COVID-19. As someone living in Sweden, I now realise, in general, how little the rest of the world really knows about this country (I mean no disrespect to anyone here that mentioned Sweden). With this crisis, you are now getting a glimse of what this country is really like. 


The Swedish approach is baffling, bizarre, surreal, frustrating, laughable, tragic, sad, arrogant, insulting, disrespectful, surprising, mysterious. I could go on and on with the adjectives.


Sweden's reputation has been damaged greatly. The neighbouring countries are not happy with us, and I totally understand their concerns and feelings. It looks like the Swedes will be holidaying at home this Summer. We will be persona non grata in many countries. Some of what has been written in the Swedish press has been scandalous, arrogant, nationalistic and so disrespectful to our European neighbours.


If you translate the following to English, you'll find it's quite interesting reading:
https://tegnellcitat.se/
https://twitter.com/tegnellsfaktoid
« Last Edit: May 27, 2020, 02:34:35 PM by Dónal Ó Ceallaigh »

Sean_A

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #98 on: May 27, 2020, 02:50:58 PM »
The John Hopkins resource is excellent.  For those wanting really good statistical analysis of the position in the UK, Chris Giles is a statistician with the Financial Times and is on Twitter at @ChrisGiles_  His best estimate of UK deaths to date is 63,800.  The FT has various Covid material, including graphs of deaths in various countries and comparisons available free outside of its firewall.  Lou will be delighted to learn that, despite the fact he thinks I'm a Communist ( ;) ), the FT does not, unsurprisingly, have a left leaning agenda.


That therin is the difference between US and GB politics. Mark as a commie bastard pinko is worth a laugh. Mind you, it is a very sad statement on US politics.


Ciao
New plays planned for 2024: Nothing

Sean_A

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: 14 Day Quarantine Upon Entering The UK
« Reply #99 on: May 27, 2020, 02:55:09 PM »
I promised myself that I wouldn't discuss Sweden's approach to the COVID-19. As someone living in Sweden, I now realise, in general, how little the rest of the world really knows about this country (I mean no disrespect to anyone here that mentioned Sweden). With this crisis, you are now getting a glimse of what this country is really like. 


The Swedish approach is baffling, bizarre, surreal, frustrating, laughable, tragic, sad, arrogant, insulting, disrespectful, surprising, mysterious. I could go on and on with the adjectives.


Sweden's reputation has been damaged greatly. The neighbouring countries are not happy with us, and I totally understand their concerns and feelings. It looks like the Swedes will be holidaying at home this Summer. We will be persona non grata in many countries. Some of what has been written in the Swedish press has been scandalous, arrogant, nationalistic and so disrespectful to our European neighbours.


If you translate the following to English, you'll find it's quite interesting reading:
https://tegnellcitat.se/
https://twitter.com/tegnellsfaktoid


Donal
I only know Sweden as hockey nation and they seem, contrary to normal beliefs, as fairly bullish. Mind you, the Finns are much more so...and all the admirable for it!


Ciao
New plays planned for 2024: Nothing

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