[A.G._Crockett]

No no, seriously...how much help am I getting?


If my 40 footer is going 10 feet by, how often does it go in if it hits dead center? How about if it hits on an angle? On that angle, how for away does it go?

Jim,

You know enough golf to know that there is no way to give one answer to your questions; there are just too many variables.   How fast was the ball moving when it hit the stick?  What is the slope around the hole?  How about grain?  What about how fast the greens are?  Fiberglass vs. metal flagsitck?  Hell, for that matter, the hole could be cut poorly; after all, it may have been done in the dark by somebody half awake, and mistakes are made.  No two pitches or chips or putts are necessarily going to react the same way.

But that doesn't change the basic calculus here, which is that every study ever done, from Pelz 20 years ago to the present, indicate that a flagstick slows the ball down and makes it more likely to go in on ANY kind of shot, including a putt.  It's pretty simple physics, isn't it? 


Does EVERY ball that strikes a flagstick go in?  Of course not.  Will there be shots that might have gone in that somehow do not because of contact with the flagstick?  Of course.  But none of that changes overall averages of this decision.

[John Kavanaugh]

Erik,


If I play about 40 rounds a year...my estimate for the number of times I would hit the pin on a putt going more than 4 feet past the hole is 0.25.


Of those 1 putt every 4 years, you’re telling me the pin will help how much?

Finally, evidence of a scratch golfer who putts better than a touring pro. Now if we can find one more of you Erik can start building that Ark.

[JESII]

EDIT:


Per Year...

[John Kavanaugh]

Given 80 lip outs you hit the hole 800 times a year. In all those putts you only roll one hard enough to roll 4 feet by. Really Alice?

[Jim Hoak]

Read all this good advice.  Had an important 30 footer on the last hole in a club tournament yesterday.  No wind.  Left the pin in.  Hit it well--probably would have gone by 2 feet or so.  Hit the pin squarely--and bounced a few inches out.  I know one example does not mean anything, but it was discouraging!

[John Kavanaugh]

It only takes once and you're done for life. We've all seen the exact same thing on chips.

[JESII]

Given 80 lip outs you hit the hole 800 times a year. In all those putts you only roll one hard enough to roll 4 feet by. Really Alice?

No...we're off kilter.


I fly over the center of the hole once every 4 years on a putt going more than 4 feet by...I hit plenty of putts well by and hit plenty of putts online but very rarely both at the same time...

[Pete_Pittock]

I think one of these as premium factors.
One is the relative stiffness of the flagstick at green height. The more stiff, the more rebound, and less likely that the ball will no in.
Two is the constructive material. Wood has less rebound than steel.
Three is flagstick diameter.


You can make yourself happier by approaching the green committee and get them to purchase the flagsticks which most likely will allow a holed putt.  The change in rules might make them more amenable.

[Kalen Braley]

In case anyone is interested in a more general but simple answer as to the why...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflection_(physics)

[A.G._Crockett]

Read all this good advice.  Had an important 30 footer on the last hole in a club tournament yesterday.  No wind.  Left the pin in.  Hit it well--probably would have gone by 2 feet or so.  Hit the pin squarely--and bounced a few inches out.  I know one example does not mean anything, but it was discouraging!

Jim,


You are assuming that the putt would have gone in without the stick, and that just isn't knowable.  And even if it IS true, going from the instance to the generalization is almost certain to be a logical fallacy.


If you pick up this month's Golf magazine, Pelz is asking for help accumulating macro data about this.  In addition to helping him, you'd be figuring out macro answers for yourself.

You know what this reminds me of?  A basketball player misses a dunk, and fans, if not commentators, say that he should have just laid it in.  And of course the simple fact is that FAR more layups are missed than dunks; the missed dunks just get a LOT of attention.  Coaches know better, and only tell players to do it differently when they miss the dunk because they were doing something for a highlight video. 

[John Kavanaugh]

Jim,


At 40 rounds you still have to make 720 putts. You are saying that all but one have perfect speed. 4 ft isn't very far on great greens.

[JESII]

AG, (and Erik I suppose),


It's not like a dunk versus a layup. They are both missed shots due to your own failing.


Matt Cohn on page 1 and now Jim Hoak cite examples this week of how the pin have hurt and they're both challenged as to whether they could possibly know if the ball would have gone in. We've all hit enough putts to know when the speed is right and when hitting the pin was helpful.


My question that you both scoffed at was based on the fact that it may take 4 years to make up that lost stroke...


Based on Erik's research, the number of putts impacted by this is so small that hardly anyone can calculate it, even BDC...


If it helps pace of play (which I think it will), great and if it helps depth perception...also great.




Maybe because of the same intellectual weakness that tells me par matters on half par type holes, having something else inside the hole means there's less room for my ball so I'd like to get it out of there...

[JESII]

Jim,


At 40 rounds you still have to make 720 putts. You are saying that all but one have perfect speed. 4 ft isn't very far on great greens.

No...I'm saying only 1 of the putts I hit way past the hole was also right on line with the hole...which would allow the pin to help stop it. How often do you putt it right over the center of the hole?

[John Kavanaugh]

Rarely but I make a ton of putts that would have gone more than 4 ft by. Bullets don't bend.

[Kalen Braley]

All my years of playing I can barely remember more than a few putts that squarely hit the hole and didn't go in due to too much speed.  The vast vast majority of the time it burns the edge or partially lips out, where a pin wouldn't have helped anyways.

Most of my pin assistance memories are thinned chips that hit the pin and kept it from going off the green on the other side...

So I'm inclined to agree with Jim in concept for how often it may actually help you during play, even if the math says you always leave it in.  Its kinda like that first job where they give you a 5 cent/hour raise.  Sure its more but it ain't helping much. 

[A.G._Crockett]

All my years of playing I can barely remember more than a few putts that squarely hit the hole and didn't go in due to too much speed.  The vast vast majority of the time it burns the edge or partially lips out, where a pin wouldn't have helped anyways.

Most of my pin assistance memories are thinned chips that hit the pin and kept it from going off the green on the other side...

So I'm inclined to agree with Jim in concept for how often it may actually help you during play, even if the math says you always leave it in.  Its kinda like that first job where they give you a 5 cent/hour raise.  Sure its more but it ain't helping much. 

Kalen,

Over the years, how many putts have you hit that lipped out instead of falling?  Might some of those have dropped with just a little bit of diminished speed due to hitting a stick that had remained in the hole?

Of course, the problem is that you don't have any data for that; only impressions, because the flag stick was ALWAYS out on putts.  But we've all seen chips that DO stop on the side of the hole, wedged in between the lip and the pin; there's even a rule to govern how a ball like that should be dealt with.  How many times would that have happened on putts in all those years if the stick had been in?  Quite a few, I'd guess.

We don't really have to worry or wonder about all of this; as we are arguing, there are studies being done all over the place; data is sure to follow.  I'm tempted to offer to eat the first one that is published showing that it's better to have the stick out, but I think I'll just wait on that degree of certainty for awhile yet.

[JESII]

AG - are you sure lip ins/out are impacted in these studies? I though Erik said they were not...

[Kalen Braley]

AG,

I think that's a good point.  I've certainly had my fair share of 90-360 degree lipouts where its far more likely the ball would have hit and stuck on the pin or slowed enough to drop.

To reiterate, i'm not doubting the physics and math that long term its better to keep the pin in, I only question how often it will work in ones favor. One saved stroke per round is interesting, but 1 in 30, not so much.  I suppose for better players who have closer misses, it might benefit them more than a hack.

[Erik J. Barzeski]

Finally, evidence of a scratch golfer who putts better than a touring pro. Now if we can find one more of you Erik can start building that Ark.

Tour pros aren't awesome putters, John. They're just not.

Based on Erik's research, the number of putts impacted by this is so small that hardly anyone can calculate it, even BDC...

I'm not sure how that's "based on my research." Clarify this?

Over the years, how many putts have you hit that lipped out instead of falling?  Might some of those have dropped with just a little bit of diminished speed due to hitting a stick that had remained in the hole?

No, because unless the stick is wide, a ball that's not entirely within the circumference of the hole will not touch the flagstick.

I stand by the advice I shared on the LSW site. It's common sense and simple math.

[Peter Pallotta]

This kind of reminds me of why Lee Trevino never had a teacher -- he'd never met one who could actually beat him. How can I argue against the stats? I can't. But if I needed a putt at the Masters to save my life, I'd rather have Crenshaw with the pin out than Pelz with the pin in.

[JMEvensky]

This kind of reminds me of why Lee Trevino never had a teacher -- he'd never met one who could actually beat him. How can I argue against the stats? I can't. But if I needed a putt at the Masters to save my life, I'd rather have Crenshaw with the pin out than Pelz with the pin in.

Same here. Don't you hate it when EB keeps bursting popular misconceptions with actual statistics?

[Peter Pallotta]

 
What can I say, J - I'm a sucker for golf's intangibles. Confidence, imagination, will. Maybe the tests/stats don't even factor in the power of telekinesis! 

[John Kavanaugh]

Finally, evidence of a scratch golfer who putts better than a touring pro. Now if we can find one more of you Erik can start building that Ark.

Tour pros aren't awesome putters, John. They're just not.

What would happen to golf course architecture if the best players in the world learned to putt?

[JESII]

Erik, you verified my memory inside the same post you were challenging me on...maybe I should have used "comments" instead of "research"...




Now, how can you state Tour players are not great putters? I'm reading Broadie's book now and he claims it but it seems an empty claim. Are you relying on him? Or some other resource?

[JESII]

BTW...I'm still trying to get my hands around "Bullets don't bend"...but I laugh each time I try...

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