It's too simple, really. The pros and other minus cappers don't play courses for the same reasons most of us do. They play to make a handsome living. And the game itself does not lend itself to certainty in that regard, particularly not when the charm of chance and quirk and the ground game, which most of us may relish, f....s with their chance of a staightforward par or better. Horses for courses. Look for the winner to be self-possessed, aware, and confident enough in their skills and affinity for the game to cope with the chance, adapt to the quirk, and solve the ground game to prevail.