[Tom_Doak]

There are alternatives to using freshwater - effluent and desalinization - that are presently keeping golf courses alive in places like Turkey, the middle east, the Canary Islands, Mexico, and so on.

Improved turfgrass varieties like seashore paspalum and ultra-dwarf bermudagrasses are allowing better conditions with less fresh water than even ten years ago. Researchers and breeders are still hard at work and I can't wait to see what they come up with next.

Resort courses especially count on green surfaces to attract customers. That won't change in a generation.

Even if water and pesticides do become more restricted, it won't affect bunkers, which only need an input of sand and labor. Where labor is cheap, bunkers will thrive.  

I see kids from 5-25 playing golf every day. Maybe golf isn't booming but, to borrow from Sam Clemens, reports of its death are greatly exaggerated.

Steve O:

While I agree with you that golf is not going to wither and die, I do worry about desalinization being seen as a savior for the golf industry.  Desal water is very expensive and very energy-intensive.  It may be workable for places with lots of money to burn and not enough water, but is hard for me to see it as a sustainable solution.  [There is also tremendous misinformation about it, witness Wayne's post about using sea water for irrigation.]

Effluent water is a completely different story.  If golf courses can use treated effluent that isn't good for growing crops or household use, that eliminates the two issues that everyone has with golf as a water hog.  It isn't the ideal source -- frequently golf courses wind up having to irrigate more than they need, because they have to use up the effluent supplied -- but we'll certainly take it.

[Ian Andrew]

Effluent water is a completely different story.  If golf courses can use treated effluent that isn't good for growing crops or household use, that eliminates the two issues that everyone has with golf as a water hog.  It isn't the ideal source -- frequently golf courses wind up having to irrigate more than they need, because they have to use up the effluent supplied -- but we'll certainly take it.

It's being done here, but the issue remains the build up of salts in the soil.

[John Kirk]

Jim:

Thanks for the great link.  People are always making predictions, but it's far too rare for anyone to call them out on their past predictions.

Hi Tom,

I read some of the 1982 news article.  My first thought is that since 1982, there's been a proliferation of expensive and elaborate golf developments, but owners simply file for bankruptcy protection when they can't recoup their investment.  How often did this happen with $10M+ golf developments?  30%?  Or is it 70%?

[Peter Pallotta]

In 2040, golf courses will be much farther away from me, but much closer to where other people live.  The courses currently near me will have been sold for housing developments, but new courses will have been built where there are few homes now but where in 20 years there will be a lot more. In short, and God willing, my child or grandchildren will have the same conveniences re playing golf that I currently have.Their local courses, though, will in general be much better than the ones I play; they will also be browner -- but no one will mind that.

Peter

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