[Phil McDade]

RJ:

I'm about 99 percent certain that all of the land under consideration is west of state Highway 13 (and almost certainly west of 13th Avenue, which if you travel north of where you were cuts directly through the Lake Arrowhead courses); east of 16th Avenue; south of Archer Avenue; and north of Badger Avenue. (Adams County, WI, for those looking at maps at home.) Aspen Avenue runs east-west west of Highway 13 through the property , and 15th Avenue runs south from Aspen Avenue through the property. The best land appears to be the stuff directly on either side of 15th Avenue, and either side of Aspen Avenue.

I doubt (speculating here) Mr. Keiser wants to go near Dorro Couche Lake, or any of the nearby wetlands, given DNR oversight of that land for fishing and other activities. The land under consideration has little that I can tell of navigable/fishable waters, and is all (or nearly all) sandy based land.

I agree with your mailbox from nowhere sentiments, however.

[Steven Blake]

Yes I believe the land in question is west of hwy 13.

RJ and Phil,

I disagree with your belief that the land in question is not all that good. Miles and miles of open ATV trails is a great way to view the property. I thought it was very good!!  

1. Lots and lots of sand. The sand has a different texture than many of the sands you will find it Wisconsin. It doesn't appear to be as loamy and almost looks as if native sand could be used for bunkers once stone where removed.  Warning the back roads are made from sand ... be careful if you have a small car!
2. Large blow outs in spots.
3. Good movement in the land albeit some spots may be too steep.
4. Lots of open area with minimal clearing ... in some cases.

I do agree that the location is in the middle of nowhere but so is Bandon Dunes Resort and Streamsong.  I pretty sure the land is much better that what you find in the Pinehurst area and a couple of those courses are highly regarded.

If Tom builds it ... they will come! Had to throw that from my favorite baseball movie!

[Phil McDade]

Steven:

I've never said the land there is not good; quite the opposite, in fact (see posts 13, 38 ((sort of)) and 40 in this thread). My questions have centered around building a public destination course near not much of anything in one of the poorest parts of the state.

Bandon Dunes overlooks the Pacific Ocean; Pine Valley (to which this project has been compared, by Tom Doak) sits in the middle of the nation's 6th largest metropolitan area (and is private); Streamsong's financial success is hardly assured.

[Steven Blake]

Phil

Your right I lumped you in with RJ ... my condolences!  

Yes time will tell if a resort in that area in a 6-7 month golf season can work as sucsessfully as bandon and streamsomg where golf can be played year round.

[RJ_Daley]

Also just to clarify, I admitted I got the wrong sections and looked at three sides of the land bounded by Badger, hwy13 and O.  I misremembered the cross roads.  So, if the land changes dramatically in a few miles or less, west of what I saw, then I hope that is the case.  What I did say is IMO, what I saw was unremarkable scrub land, and surely no Pine Valley.  I know land can change dramatically in a short distance.  As a matter of fact, places like Wild Horse (one of my most favorite courses anywhere, sits next to relatively unremarkable land flat land, but itself has very nice rolls and just the right amount of elevation changes.  And of course, there is the sand...

I also do believe that developing a market of destination golfers, regionally is a tall order, even for a Tom Doak course.  Just look at High Pointe for a comparison. It was reasonably priced golf.  That was a nice piece of land (particularly the back 9) and located on the edge of a nice city in Traverse City, and across the road from another highly developed more pricey resort, yet the market and circumstances didn't stand up to the forces of that situation.  

There has to be more to the project than just a great golf course, IMHO.  Bandon does have an ocean and great resort facility, and Cabot Links does have same with the St Lawrence Gulf and Atlantic Ocean upon a unique remote destination vacation area.  

Adams County, not so much...

[Jud_T]

Kohler seems to be doing fairly well with a shortened season in the semi-middle of nowhere.  This place is perfect for a long weekend from Chicago, Milwaukee and Minneapolis/St. Paul, not to mention Green Bay etc.  Roughly 18 million people within a 4 hour drive.  What percentage of those play golf? 10%? What percentage of that 1.8mm is a luxury market player?  10%?  So using this back of the envelope calculation, there's 180,000 potential visitors.  Say they each come once every 4 years and play 2 rounds per visit to be conservative.  That's 90,000 rounds per year, and we haven't even discussed folks coming in by air if the place ends up with 2 highly rated courses of distinction.

[RJ_Daley]

Jud, will this market of potential players come without a world class lodge, i.e. "the American Club"?  And, if some excellent facility is built, it needs to have great on-site amenities, it seems to me.  Would you say the Bandon Resorts is more like camping, or high end lodge with amenities?  

On one hand we have TD telling us part of the consideration is that the land is priced right, which implies a low budget.  Then we consider if that 180,000 potential you talk about that would have to drive from TC, Mad, Milw, Chi and would they be content with a grill and very modest sleep motel, and not too much in the way of great food?  

BTW, if the idea is to have "amenities" of good lodging and food, I have to believe that such an F&B operation requires a pretty stiff check - no matter how cheap you get the land.  And, I don't care how great the sandy barrens might be, they won't build a course that doesn't start out pencilling out a green fee of less than $50.  But, I think we both know if it has TD or C&C cache, it isn't going to pencil out at a green fee of $50!  So, if I were to suggest a modification on how you arrive at the 180,000 potential golfers; perhaps begin with out of the 1.8 million, how many are 1%ers, then whittle down your potential market from there.  

Look at Green Lake and Lawsonia.  It is an established century old resort haven of tradition for the wealthy up from the cities and a serene retreat for the ABA to this day.  It is a beautiful established resort area down in town, with the famed Heidel House and several other famous establishments.  And, you can play a world class classic like the Links or a very nice woodland resort course for as little as $30-75!   And, they aren't actually breaking any profit records over there.  

But, a pox on me for suggesting all this negativity.  I'd love to see Mr. Kaiser hit a home run.... again!  He can do something spectacular, if he wants, I suppose.    

[Jim Nugent]

Jud, I read the golf season in WI is about six months: May through October.  To get 90K rounds per year, the course will have to average 15,000 rounds per month.  Is that realistic, for a single course hours 2-to-3 hours away from the major population centers?  

I also read that golfers played 115,000 rounds on Rancho Park in 2005.  That's playing 12 months a year, in the second biggest metro area in the U.S., on one of the nation's busiest courses.    

I'm guessing the 90,000 figure should be way lower. Maybe take Bandon Dunes' early figures, before PD opened, and cut them nearly in half, for a ball-park guesstimate.  

[Jud_T]

Jim,

I meant potential rounds for 2+ courses.

[David Schofield]

From the tone of some of the comments, you'd think this place was in the middle of the Canadian wilderness, inaccessible by anything but seaplane.  Let's face it, it'll be more accessible than either Bandon Dunes or Cabot Links.  True, it won't have oceanfront scenery, but there's cows, corn fields and cheese curds for as far as the eye can see.

[Jim Nugent]

David, it seems to me one main thing it won't have is a full golf season.  While Bandon is open 12 months, this will probably only open for six.  Seems like that has to affect the financials.  

[RJ_Daley]

True, it won't have oceanfront scenery, but there's cows, corn fields and cheese curds for as far as the eye can see.

There is scarce dairy farms in this area of WI.  I don't believe I saw a cow within 50 miles of this area on my recent drive around there.  It is a lot of scrub land, some row planted timber for pulp, some Christmas tree farms, and mostly scrub woodsy thicket or low wetland for miles around.  Two courses?  They already have two courses at Arrowhead.  They do not do half of 90,000 rounds a year.  I would be willing to say there is no golf course in WI that does 45,000 rounds a year.  This area of WI arguably has 4 months of decent golf weather, and 2 months of dicey weather.  The realistic window of even passionate golfers that would drive regionally to this area is June to mid Sept.  

[Andrew Buck]

David, it seems to me one main thing it won't have is a full golf season.  While Bandon is open 12 months, this will probably only open for six.  Seems like that has to affect the financials.  

It would certainly impact financials some, however if they are courses of similar caliber, you probably could charge a little more and shut the doors for November - March 15.  As pointed out, you have a very substantial population withing driving distance, and really no other world class "golf only" options like this.  It's pretty difficult for almost anyone to get to Bandon without spending at least $500 plus considerable time.

That said, I do understand the concern, and considering you could take a trip to Lawsiona, rent a house for 3 nights and play 4 rounds for under $400, it's reasonable to question if people will be willing to spend the $1,000 it will likely cost here (similar to Kohler).  I hope it works, but if I'm being honest not sure I'd want to be a main investor.  

[Jud_T]

RJ,

I'm just talking about potential golfers.  How many rounds does Whistling Straits do?  35,000?  at $360 a head?  that's $12.6mm.  Seems to me that 20,000 at $150 a head is more than enough to pay the light bill.  I'd invest in this in a heartbeat.  What Erin Hills and Whistling Straits have are difficulty and tournament cred.  While I love Lawsonia as much or more than just about anyone here, it's not built on sand and I've yet to have enough interest to even see the other course.  What Kohler brings is something far more interesting and valuable- a phenomenal experience for real golfers that is unavailable elsewhere in the local market.  How many people go to Whistling Straits to check it off their list and how many return year in and year out because they simply love the experience so much?

[Andrew Buck]

RJ,

I'm just talking about potential golfers.  How many rounds does Whistling Straights do?  35,000?  at $360 a head?  that's $12.6mm.  Seems to me that 20,000 at $150 a head is more than enough to pay the light bill.  I'd invest in this in a heartbeat.  What Erin Hills and Whistling Straights have are difficulty and tournament cred.  What Kohler brings is something far more interesting and valuable.  A phenomenal golf experience for real golfers that is unavailable elsewhere in the local market.  How many people go to Whistling Straights to check it off their list and how many return year in and year out because they simply love the experience so much?

All depends on the initial cash outlay for development.  

That said, if Mr Keiser is doing it, I'm sure he has a good feel it will be able to survive.  I don't know the man, so I have no idea if his passion for the game and bringing these opportunities enables him to take the risk for a lower ROI than what a typical developer would desire to take the risk.

[Brian Zager]

Hey guys, I'm a newly registered member but a longtime fan of this site.  The location of this is property is only about 15 miles from me/my hometown so I'm pretty excited about it and hopeful that it will happen.  I went out there three times on weekends in early September to check it out and take pictures.  I thought they might be of interest to everyone here.  I walked through different parts of the area each time.  There are 116 pictures.  I geotagged them and uploaded them to my Panoramio account so you can see exactly where they were taken.  Hope you enjoy them.

http://www.panoramio.com/user/3526258/tags/Future%20Golf%20Course%20Site%3F

[Phil McDade]

Brian:

Thanks a ton for posting these -- saves me a trip up there to do the same! I can see why Tom Doak has visions of Pine Valley in his mind -- some nice contouring to the land there.

[Eric Smith]

Brian:

Thanks a ton for posting these -- saves me a trip up there to do the same! I can see why Tom Doak has visions of Pine Valley in his mind -- some nice contouring to the land there.

+1

Look at all that sand! These pics are terrific and should remove any doubts about the potential of the site. 

Welcome to the site, Brian!

[PCCraig]

Thanks for posting Brian! The property looks incredible. Will be great to see what Mike Kaiser & Company do with it.

[Steve Burrows]

I imagine Aldo Leopoldo is rolling over in his grave.

[RJ_Daley]

Yup, that land is 1000% better than what I mistakenly thought was the sections about 1.5 miles due east.  The land apparently changes there abruptly.  In fact, it appears it may be a similar situation of land changing fairly abruptly like BallyNeal.  BallyNeal is in deed an island of great golf course terrain amid a sea boringness.  And, perhaps this is like BallyNeal in that it is in a remote part of NE CO, and a fairly long drive from a major city in Denver.  So, maybe we have a market of potential customers regionally and national membership potential like BallyNeal.

It is just that I don't think so....  

I have little doubt Doak could actually design a world class golf course there.  In fact, on great land, it would be harder for for him to design something off the mark than it would be for him to tease a great routing and course from that terrain.  The question is will they come, that far into a relatively undeveloped area, and for what else?  

Just for giggles, consider this:  We have talked for years and sung the praises of Lawsonia.  We have had many threads and raved about the course, and how special it is in fall.  We even had a minor GCA gathering there as a broader weekend of Langford and Morreau tribute.  We  have several other smaller gatherings.  It has some rank of public classic courses on some of the magazine lists.  And for all that reputation and ranking, Pete Pittock and I played there last week on a dead solid perfect fall day, and we literally had the course to ourselves and maybe two other groups anywhere on the course in sight.  And, Green Lake has other attractions!  It is closer to population centers.  Now, consider Adams County and what it has to offer.  

Frankly, to continue on my pessimistic bent, consider that Sentry World with all its purdy flowerbeds and long time reputation as a road trip for regional golfers to go see it, is in the process of nearly a complete remodel.  Their customer base has dried up from apparently having seen it once or twice and now yawn at the prospect of driving to play there.  Why?  And, I'd even go further and say that of the regional market of folk looking for a day or weekend trip to go play somewhere nice, a huge number of said people, if given the choice of going to play a Tom Doak masterpiece in the pine barrens, or go where they have them purdy flowers, would go to Sentry World.  

Welcome to GCA Brian.  Do you live in Rapids or Point, or other?  Where do you play most of your golf?  

[Jud_T]

It's a good thing RJ wasn't the analyst in charge of deciding whether he should go ahead with Bandon.

[Phil McDade]

It's a good thing RJ wasn't the analyst in charge of deciding whether he should go ahead with Bandon.

...which overlooks the Pacific Ocean...

[Jud_T]

Phil,

How many people live within a 4 hour drive of Bandon?  How many live within a 4 hour drive of this site?  Lawsonia is a red herring.  They have 1 Doak 6 course, they have no lodging to speak of on site and they didn't even sell beer till last year.  Chicago has 1 Doak 8 that virtually nobody can access.  Whistling Straights and Erin Hills are both overrated IMO.  How many Doak 8's are there in Milwaukee and Minneapolis again?  And oh yeah, exactly zero of these courses are built on sand.  Put 2 Doak 8's on a sandy site with quality room and board in this location and you and RJ will be flipping burgers and brats for me at the turn from here to eternity...

[Phil McDade]

Jud:

You're talking to a constituency of about 1,500 people -- coincidentally, roughly the same number of posters as we have here on GCA.

I won't repeat my previous arguments on this thread about the potential viability of this project. But I'd suggest it didn't take a genius to think building a golf course on sandy soil and beautiful terrain on cliffs overlooking the Pacific Ocean might work. Keiser's genius wasn't the site selection; it was his ability to stitch Bandon together, working with skeptical locals and wary environmental officials, and he had the luxury of time (i.e., money) to do so.

In many respects, I'm guessing he has even fewer hurdles to overcome in building a golf course(s) in Adams County on this land. But that's not really the issue, is it? Nor is it the quality of course that could be built up there; heck, give R.J and I some topo maps and a few months, and we could probably come up with something passable (Doak 4? )

But your view that there is a large group of golfers out there parsing the difference among Erin Hills (a public U.S. Open course, by the way, of which there is exactly one in the Midwest), Whistling Straits (a public Ryder Cup course, of which there is exactly one in the Midwest) and Rome/Pine Valley -- and choosing the latter over the other two -- is one I'm skeptical of.

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