Tiger's fatal flaw is his patience, something all of his critics lack.
He'll never be Tiger 2K again, but I don't know if anyone else will, either. He will win a lot more regular events, and more majors as well. Some sportswriter noted that the biggest thing Tiger and Jack did was constantly put themselves in the mix, which allowed them to come away with wins a good bit of the time. Tiger won't have 6-10-15 stroke victories in majors anymore, but he will put himself in the mix often enough to win a few more.
It's incredible how much criticism he takes for top 5s, and it's simply a matter of time before a few become top 1s. Then we'll see how all those guys who aren't intimidated by him anymore react.
George:
Tiger gets scrutinized (and even criticized) because he's not Ernie Els or Phil Mickelson; he's one of the two best golfers to ever walk the planet. His majors record is what matters, by his own doing; Tiger's the one who has said he wants to be judged on his record in majors, and considers his foremost goal in golf to beating Nicklaus' record wins in majors.
I think you raise a good point about being in contention. Let's take a look at the record.
Tiger won his last major in 2008, the US Open,when he was 32. Discounting, appropriately, the next two majors immediately after that because of his knee injury, Tiger has played in 13 majors (he missed another two majors in 2011 with his foot/leg injury), and will play his 14th since then in a couple of weeks. In those majors, he's had seven top-10 finishes, including five in the top-5, and one runner-up finish. Pretty solid. But he also had two missed cuts, and four other finishes outside the top 20.
Nicklaus won two majors when he was 32. In the proceeding 14 majors (through the 1975 PGA), he won three times, had two other runner-up finishes, and six other top-five finishes. He never missed a cut, and finished out of the top 10 once. (Amazingly, in the next five years after
that run, he had a record in majors just as good: 3 wins, 3 runner-up finishes, five other top-5 finishes, and only one missed cut).
In short, Nicklaus was able to win a bunch of majors after he turned 32 because he kept putting himself in contention. Tiger's record -- so far, since he won his last major -- is not as consistent in terms of putting himself in contention.
Winning several majors after age 32 or so is pretty rare; the list of golfers who have done so is slim, notably including Jack and Hogan. Of course, those guys are probably #1 and #3 on the all-time list of great golfers, and Tiger is certainly the only person of his generation that one can reasonably argue could match their majors record in his 30s. But he's now 36, and in the past few years has missed out on a bunch of majors at courses (Bethpage Black, Hazeltine, The Old Course, Sandwich, Pebble Beach) where he'd played well or won in past majors.
I was struck, after his three wins this season and putting himself into solid contention at the Open at Lytham, how tentative his play was, and how some of his course-management decisions seemed off. His talent alone will put him in contention for many majors to come, but to me he doesn't quite look like a guy who knows how to close the door on one.