[Patrick_Mucci]

670 yards, dogleg left.

How close will they get ?

370 yard drive followed by a 300 yard 3-wood ?

Is it possible ?

And if it occurs, will the USGA come to grips with the distance issue ?

[Joe Bausch]

If someone does it, I'm guessing it will be Dustin Johnson.

At the AT&T tournament at Aronimink a few years ago, I thought nobody could reach the 9th in two, playing 609 yards with the last half uphill.  Wrong.  DJ reached it with driver/4 iron.

[Melvyn Morrow]

With Technology, anything is possible, but is it good for golf and golfers

[Tom_Doak]

Patrick:

John Daly hit the 630-yard 17th at Baltusrol [with cross bunkers in front of the green], 19 summers ago.

And what did they do about that?

[David_Tepper]

Article on par-5 holes #16 & #17:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/06/12/SPVM1P05CN.DTL

[Will Lozier]

I don't think they'll get more than two cracks at it from the tips, but I would guess Bubba has the best chance.

[Jason Thurman]

If anyone hits it, they'll be celebrated. It'll generate a buzz just like the first ace of the tournament will. For the USGA, that will be seen as a good thing.

No way they're going to have someone reach a 670 yard hole in two and then start rolling the ball back. Imagine how unimpressed we'd all be if 10 years from now some commentator wanted to sell us on how amazing it is that Elroy McMickelwatson reached a 560 yard hole in two with a balata ball and a steel shaft.

If someone reaches in two, they'll just play the 18th at Erin Hills from the beyond-tips (over 700) in a few years. The big ball is exciting. No one will be reigning it in.

[George Freeman]

This past weekend Rory hit a 300 yard 2-iron.

My bet is that someone will reach it, or be pin high in two (as long as it doesn't play into the wind both days).  How is the fairway?  Severely canting and impossible to hold?  Or long and straight where a perfectly struck ball can roll out?  That is a big factor.  As will be dry conditions.

[Patrick_Mucci]

Tom Doak,

You're right about John Daly, but I think he was viewed as an anomaly.

I watched the Remax long driving Championship about a week ago.

They were carrying the ball over 380

Yikes

[Ron Csigo]

There will be a few that might be able to hit it into the greenside bunkers but I'd be stunned if someone will be able to hold the green coming in with a 3-wood/hybrid/long iron.  If I remember correctly, the green isn't all that big either.

Plus, there's something about the air at Olympic.  It's heavier and the actual yardages seem to play somewhat longer then usual.  

[Phil McDade]

Tom Doak,

You're right about John Daly, but I think he was viewed as an anomaly.

Maybe at the time, but Daly was really the forerunner of the "bomb-and-gouge" philosophy adopted by many players after his success at Crooked Stick.

[Kirk Moon]

There will be a few that might be able to hit it into the greenside bunkers but I'd be stunned if someone will be able to hold the green coming in with a 3-wood/hybrid/long iron.  If I remember correctly, the green isn't all that big either.

Plus, there's something about the air at Olympic.  It's heavier and the actual yardages seem to play somewhat longer then usual.  

The opening at the front on 16 is very narrow.  The course is playing fast and firm, so players will probably get quite a bit of roll and could conceivably reach the green, but they will have to be pinpoint perfect (read lucky) to thread the needle between the front bunkers.  

We are having a bit of a warm spell right now (started this weekend after some rather heavy wind and fog during the preceding week or two).  Beautiful sun.  Warmer than average temps.  Some wind (mostly in the afternoon) but not nearly as much as we have had in the last few weeks.  Looks as though it could be picture perfect weather for the tournament.  As is typical for SF at this time of year, however, things can change in a matter of a few hours so nothing is certain.  If the warm, sunny weather hangs in there the "heavy air" that we are famous for might play a bit less of a role although even on these nice sunny days there is a crisp, cool moistness in the air right near the coast that will impact distances hit.

[Ron Csigo]

My bet is that someone will reach it, or be pin high in two (as long as it doesn't play into the wind both days).  How is the fairway?  Severely canting and impossible to hold?  Or long and straight where a perfectly struck ball can roll out?  That is a big factor.  As will be dry conditions.

George - The hole is shaped like a boomerang.  If I remember correctly, the fairway is relatively flat.  Given the routing of the hole, the pros will want to hit it down the left side of the fairway (over the trees when standing on the tee box).  If you hit it far enough and get some roll out, you will likely end up center-to-right side of the fairway.  The second shot will still require a big draw for a righty or big fade for a lefty to a tiny green.  I'll give Bubba Watson the best chance of reaching the green in two given how far he hits it and his ability to shape shots.

Kirk - Thank you for your update.  I'm hoping the players will get to play both the "warmer air" and "heavy air" to see how much it impacts distances.

[Ron Csigo]

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=8033103&categoryid=2378529

[Bryan Izatt]

The new tee looks bizarrely placed between two greens.  I'd imagine that tee would be a logistical nightmare.  The hole is only 670 yards from the very back edge of the tee and following the centerline of the fairway.  I imagine it would play a little bit shorter playing to the inside of the dogleg.

I'm sure some could get green high if the stars all aligned, especially if it's down wind.  The wind forecast for the next few days is for strong north or north west winds over the ocean. Does that translate as far inland as the course.

 


 

 

[John Chilver-Stainer]

Only 21 yards more and they can call it a Par 6

http://www.usga.org/Rule-Books/Handicap-System-Manual/Rule-16/

[Kevin_Reilly]

That tee will be NLE before long.

Pat, in the 2007 US Amateur, John Hurley (who has been talked about on here before by TEPaul) was greenside in two from tees that were in the range of 600 yards.  I then watched him reach #17 with driver, 8-iron.  He was freakishly long.

Back in 2007 many players took a line to the left over the trees.  See Jamie Lovemark's play here...he didn't reach the green even from the shorter tee used for that match, but there is no doubt that this year with the rock-hard fairways that it would have been reachable at the shorter distance...I guess we will find out on the two days that the 670 tee is not used.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqoAbIcq9iU

[Link Walsh]

Just heard Bubba say in his press conference that he hit driver, driver from the back tee in his practice round and was still 50- 60 yards short of the green.

[George Freeman]

Just heard Bubba say in his press conference that he hit driver, driver from the back tee in his practice round and was still 50- 60 yards short of the green.

Well that settles it!

That is unless there is a huge helping wind...

[Matthew Essig]

Only 21 yards more and they can call it a Par 6

http://www.usga.org/Rule-Books/Handicap-System-Manual/Rule-16/

They could but they wouldn't call it a par 6. Like how the 8th at Oakmont is 30 yards over the guideline; it should be a par 4 but it is still a par 3. it would be funny to have a par 6, though.   

[Will Lozier]

Only 21 yards more and they can call it a Par 6

http://www.usga.org/Rule-Books/Handicap-System-Manual/Rule-16/

John,

Remember, these are only guidelines - terrain and conditions are to be taken into consideration. Remember that the 500+ yard par-4 is now very much commonplace for these guys.

Cheers

[Kris Shreiner]

Ron and Kirk,

Bang on with the "heavy air!" Very underestimated. Unless everything is right, that leap from 600 to 650+ is HUGE under normal SF conditions. I'm not saying it can't be done...but they better have the needle and swab ready unless the conditions are VERY favorable to reach. It will require two world class bombs to make that green in two. But it is possible for a couple in the field.

Cheers,
Kris

[John Chilver-Stainer]

Matthew and Will,

Yes it would be highly unlikely nowadays in a Major Championship that even an 800 yard Hole would be called a Par 6.

It just illustrates how the ball and equipment have moved on since these rules were originally established, and the dimensions of the golf course desperately trying to comply.

[Kirk Moon]

Just got home from an extremely enjoyable day out at the O Club.  Sun with a dappling of broken fog over the Western part of the course in the afternoon.  Light breeze in the morning, stiffening slightly in the afternoon.   Essentially perfect weather.  Hope it holds. 

NO ONE that I saw got even vaguely close to the green on 16 in two.  The hole dog legs left and the fairway has been mowed to hug the left, leaving the right half of what is usually fairway (under normal play) rough which is several inches deep.  The best place to be for an approach shot into the green under normal circumstances is in the right half of the fairway, but the rough is so deep that guys who hit into it were having a tough time just moving the ball a reasonable distance up the fairway.  Most of the golfers I saw were driving in the short grass but ending up 300+ yards out and the trees along the left hand side of the hole blocked a direct shot to the green, mandating that they either lay up their second shot a bit or hit a really pronounced draw/hook.  The green isn't visible from where they were landing.  The closest ones I saw were still a good 80-100 yards out after two and some were much farther out than that.

Barring VERY unusual circumstances, NO ONE is going to get anywhere near this green in two.

On the other hand, lots of guys seemed to be able to hit the 17th green in two without too much drama.  I saw Ricky Fowler hit a mid iron in with no muss or fuss.  The short grass to the right of the green is wicked and anyone unlucky enough to dribble right after hitting the green is going to be facing a VERY tricky shot back to the green from 60-80 feet out, up the steep slope, with several large cypress trees partially blocking the way.  Long is tough (short grass).  Hitting out of the new bunker will be challenging.  Guys didn't seem to be having too much trouble hitting out of the greenside bunkers.  Things were getting dry enough on 17 that they were out there in mid-afternoon watering down the green and the short grass slope to the right of the green.   Looks like they are determined to avoid another Shinnecock disaster. 

[TEPaul]

It's a good question and the answer in play will sure be interesting.

Personally, I would break a question like this into two parts from a distance perspective, and the other hole I'm thinking of is Merion East's #4 which can probably play 650-660 in the 2013 US Open:

1. Is it possible for them to reach a hole of that length in two-shots, period?

2. Even if they can possibly do it, what is it about a hole of that length that will stop them from trying even if they can reach it in two shots?


I think the smallish creek fronting Merion East's #4 would dissuade a number of players from going in two even if reaching it distance-wise is possible. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? In other words, should a hole like that be shortened enough to tempt more to go in two and make mistakes?

Risk/Reward!! It's all about RISK/REWARD and risk/reward can be a very tricky and nuancy thing. Is it the essence of great golf architecture?

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