This thread interests me because an underlying theme to many of my recent thoughts is golf statistics.
I liken the comparison to the assumption made by Sabermetricians in baseball:
It is not the job of Albert Pujols to hit singles, doubles, triples or even homeruns. It is the job of Albert Pujols to generate runs for his team without spending outs.
Sabermetrics are based on the idea that a team spends outs to generate runs. To wit: the out is the currency of the game.
In golf, a stroke is the currency of the game and strokes are spent to overcome distance.
One could then extrapolate that it's not the job of Luke Donald to hit fairways, or greens or even to make putts, but instead to spend strokes to overcome distance in the most efficient manner. Therefore, it really doesn't matter if the player hits the green or not, what matters is that the player finds the areas around the green from which a minimum of subsequent strokes need be played.
Kyle,
Very interesting. What are the implications for golf stats? Essentially keeping your ball in play, scrambling, sand saves and putting? Is there some new stats you can think of that might be more appropriate? How about percentage of green misses on proper side (i.e. the non-short side stat). side to side and front to back? Are these stats equally robust at TOC and Sawgrass? Can't wait to take my son to see Moneyball next week.
Jud:
How about shot efficiency?
Distance the ball traveled/raw hole distance (direct line from tee to hole)
divided by:
Distance the ball traveled/centerline hole distance (card yardage of the hole)
Tells us how effectively the player managed the distance of the course through strokes.
Average distance per shot:
Score/total distance ball traveled
This last stat would be skewed a bit for players leaving the ball short of the hole on approaches. Furthermore, the more putts one takes, the lower the average would be since each instance of a putt adds a substantially smaller number to the average.
Either way, the idea is to judge and predict how effective a player can play a shot. Since each shot is played in order to substantially increase the odds of holing the next shot or for holing that next shot, (the transition of attitude from the former to the latter is a KEY to golf architecture, IMO) there is little to no value in actually determining where the ball ends up except in the context of how the ball is maneuvered to decrese the distance needed to be overcome.