Pebble Beach Pro-Am

[Michael Moore]

Had he listened to me on the last two holes of a USGA Senior Open Qualifier, he would have played in that too.

Pat -

Were you able to convey this information without breaking rule 8-1(a)? If so, how? If not, did you report yourself?

As always, just curious.

[jeffwarne]

Can somebody explain to me how these (sh)amateurs can possibly be shooting these scores?

Here are the top 3 finishers:

Pro/sham      total   pro   sham
Points/ Murray    -35   (-15)   -20   -5/day
Taylor/ Mycoskie    -33   (-4)     -29   -7.25/day
Bowditch/ Miller    -33     (-8)   -25   -6.25/day

So somehow these jokers are shooting 5,6,7 shots better than thier handicaps for 4 consecutive days on PGA Tour greens.

According to the USGA this is FAR BEYOND THE REALM OF REASONABLENESS…

What am I missing??

http://www.usga.org/Content.aspx?id=25502

Now, once in a while you will hear about someone shooting an incredible tournament score, such as a net score of 59. What are the odds of shooting a score like that? These tables from the USGA's Handicap Research Team have figured the odds of one exceptional tournament score up to ten strokes better than the Course Handicap.

For example, the odds of our example player with a Course Handicap of 14 beating it by eight strokes (-8 net) once is 1,138 to one. Put another way, the average player posts 21 scores a year. That means that to score this well, assuming the Handicap Index is correct, would take 54 years of golf to do it once. The odds of a player beating his Course Handicap by eight strokes twice is only 14,912 to one. That's 710 years of golf for the average player -- odds far beyond the realm of reasonableness.

Scott, as I understand it, you're a fine player.  Let me give you a few words of advice:  never play in any net events - unless and until you are 100% committed - actually, make that 10,000% committed - to not wasting a single second of your time worrying about this or trying to figure things like this out.  You will drive yourself insane.  Give up.  Seriously.  It's in the best interest of your mental health.

Just accept the fact that as a low-handicapper, you have no chance of ever winning low net unless it's low net in your filght.  You will NEVER win low net against an entire field.  Ever.  

Please, please please, do yourself a favor and never ask what the odds of a 22 handicapper shooting 164 are.  Don't ask what the odds of a 7 handicapper shooting 290 are.  You will just drive yourself straight to the koo-koo farm.  You'll thank me for this advice in about 20 years...

Please don't take this the wrong way as I am a Bill Murray fan,
Bill Murray is a classic example of how the handicap system can be flawed.
He grows up in the game and develops a beautiful swing and game.
gets busy working and doesn't play too much, but when he does goofs off and makes acouple pars/birdies and a bunch of 7's and 8's.
For years he played off 18 and I used to say the same thing, yet he never contended.

Suddenly he focuses a bit and perhaps plays and practices a bit more.
he still knows how to think and what shots to hit-and all of a sudden he can do it again.
He played beautifully over the weekend-good for him.
Also, somebody's got to win(hopefully by playing over their head) and it's much more credible when the winning am has the low pro-and good weather certainly helps the ams.
You start to wonder when the pro misses the cut yet his team's in contention,

I see a lot of ex-pros who play off 7.
They play sporadically and make a couple big #'s, three putt often and shoot 84 during their infrequent outings.
Then they get invited to a member guest, they practice for a month(particularly on their short game) and still think very well.
By the time the event rolls around they're playing like a 2 and make 5 natural birdies each round. then they go back to their sporadic infrequent rounds and the cycle repeats.

[Brent Hutto]

I think Jeff has it right. They need two tables of probabilities. One for someone playing off, say, 13 and that's the best they've ever played in their life and another who plays off the same 13 but was 3 or better when they were 20 years old.

I think having been really good at some sport or another prior to age 20 really improves your upside potential at golf later in life. And having been really good at golf prior to age 20 means on any given day you have the potential to play far, far better than your current so-called "ability".

[Bill_McBride]

two things.First,congrats to Ryan,DA,etc.I actually skipped a seventy degree golf day to watch since I had someone to pull for.Second,the quality of golf around Belair from the celebrity types is very good and the game is respected at the Belair and Lakeside type places as much or more than anywhere.I am sure there are exceptions,but the norm is very refreshing.

Mike, no DVR?

The DVR solves two problems.  Three in the case of the AT&T!

Play golf and watch the recording later.  FF the commercials.  Bonus, FF the celebs!

[William_G]

two things.First,congrats to Ryan,DA,etc.I actually skipped a seventy degree golf day to watch since I had someone to pull for.Second,the quality of golf around Belair from the celebrity types is very good and the game is respected at the Belair and Lakeside type places as much or more than anywhere.I am sure there are exceptions,but the norm is very refreshing.

Mike, no DVR?

The DVR solves two problems.  Three in the case of the AT&T!

Play golf and watch the recording later.  FF the commercials.  Bonus, FF the celebs!

+1, had my wife record on VHS while I took the kids out all afternoon to play and swim with friends. She loved not telling me who won when we all enjoyed the replay over dinner, the eagle, the great curving putts, the Cinderella story, the missed chest pump, the LEGO belt buckle, great day! Hilarious and beautiful!

[Bill_McBride]

Bummer watching Steve Marino self-destruct on #18.  He was on the tee at -13 with eagle to tie and some long hitters home in two. 

Eight shots and $327K later, he's in the house at -10.

He grew up at my old club in Northern Virginia, Country Club of Fairfax, and is said to be a good guy.  It was painful to watch.

[William_G]

Bummer watching Steve Marino self-destruct on #18.  He was on the tee at -13 with eagle to tie and some long hitters home in two.  

Eight shots and $327K later, he's in the house at -10.

He grew up at my old club in Northern Virginia, Country Club of Fairfax, and is said to be a good guy.  It was painful to watch.

yes, it was a long way for him to hit it, especially as he plays a cut, and it was into the wind and the temp. was dropping, not sure he was worried about the 327K anyway, plus it seemed like all who were there knew he couldn't reach in 2 shots? still wonderful to watch Pebble.

[Pat Burke]

Played in a number of AT&T 's
My best finish in the pro-am portion was a t-3 with Tom Candiotti, who was still pitching at that time.
Tom was playing off an 8.  He didn't play a lot, but really could play.  He was the perfect partner. 
Competitive, fun, and not afraid to "get the ball".
More than anything, Tom WAS a true 8, but one of those "athlete" eights.  He played 13-14 holes like a 1 handicap (and was long)
and didn't finish the other holes.  Since I was pretty much a par maker, his blow up holes had little effect.

I also played with "typical" 11-14 handicappers, who scraped it around, and struggled to play the courses.
They had no chance to make the cut.  Not enough tournament ability to survive the atmosphere and courses.
I always had fun partners though.  It was always an interesting week

[Bill_McBride]

Bummer watching Steve Marino self-destruct on #18.  He was on the tee at -13 with eagle to tie and some long hitters home in two.  

Eight shots and $327K later, he's in the house at -10.

He grew up at my old club in Northern Virginia, Country Club of Fairfax, and is said to be a good guy.  It was painful to watch.

yes, it was a long way for him to hit it, especially as he plays a cut, and it was into the wind and the temp. was dropping, not sure he was worried about the 327K anyway, plus it seemed like all who were there knew he couldn't reach in 2 shots? still wonderful to watch Pebble.

That was his third shot in the water, first he blew his drive way short right in a bunker I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone in before!  Blasted out, then hooked into the big water hazard, dropped in the bunker, up short, on in six, two putts, easy snowman.  

[George Pazin]

Please, please please, do yourself a favor and never ask what the odds of a 22 handicapper shooting 164 are.  Don't ask what the odds of a 7 handicapper shooting 290 are.  You will just drive yourself straight to the koo-koo farm.  You'll thank me for this advice in about 20 years...

Haven't ever really played in a net event, so I'll ask:

Does a 22 have to shoot 164 to win in a fourball event?

Back when I played an ok amount, I was a 22 (it was the second summer I played). It wasn't at all uncommon for me to have a handful of pars and even the occasional birdie - I'd just slaughter a bunch of other holes. I think one round I shot 57 on 13 holes and 54 on the other 5. If you get a little lucky on both the slaughter holes and the par/birdie holes, you can shoot some crazy numbers in a fourball, no?

(As always, apologies to JakaB for taking up space on here, hopefully he won't read this, and hopefully I haven't damaged golf too much with my playing or questions.)

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Regardless, if every week were like the Pebble Pro-Am, I'd definitely quit watching golf. But I can take it once or twice a year (especially since I don't generally watch the other one, the Hope).

(Sorry again to John for even more space, don't mean any harm to golf.)

And Bogey, you weren't the only one who thought that about Raymond.

[Steve Kline]

 I despise this tournament and avoid watching it like the plague. Nothing worse than watching a bunch of amateur hacks and people trying to be funny. If you want to watch sucky amateurs play just go to your local muni. Why would I care to watch Kevin Costner or Ray Romano play golf?

Steve, You are wrong to associate the whole tournament with the CBS coverage.

The whole tournament is not about these guys. It's about much more.

And,,.. You can't argue with the drama the golf provides on Sunday when the majority of distractions are gone.

My only association with the tournament is the CBS coverage. That being the case, what more is it about?

[Adam Clayman]

Steve, I'm sure I don't even know everything, but let's start with the charity aspect. Stan Dodd once defended the tournament pointing out that their giving, has helped the PG high School do things for the kids, enhancing their life experiences, that they'd never have had without the generosity.

There's the fun and camaraderie that I personally experienced when I caddied for one of the groups, that was nowhere near the TV cameras. As a spectator, it was always a different feeling from all the other tour events I've been to elsewhere. Plus all the  positive stories I have heard from others. Mostly volunteers, but also from people that have lived there their whole adult lives.

Then there's the Volunteers party. I never went, but, it is legendary.

While I only lived on the peninsula for 5 years, I sensed it was just a great week to be there, be a resident, or even a visitor. Juxtapose that to an Open week, which can be a week from hell. 

I see the difference between CBS's horrible Saturday coverage and what the real Tournament is like. I highly recommend going sometime in person. You'll likely feel the difference too.

[Doug Wright]

A good friend of mine who plays with me in our club's annual match play tournament played in the Pebble pro am this week off his Colorado GHIN handicap plus course adjustment, so from that info it seems that they do try to be accurate at least for the non-celebrities. His team missed the cut by 3-4 strokes.

[PCCraig]

I was very happy to see the local guys take home the pro-am! Congrats to D.A. and Bill!