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RJ_Daley

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #100 on: January 04, 2011, 11:24:12 AM »
i'd have to agree, Adam.  Something is very strange about that 5.5Mm when the debt cost at 5% on a muni rate (very high figure) is about 1.2 and dedicate 1M to retirement paydown, and 1.5 to maintenance.  Methinks the management co is walking away with about 1.8 or so...

At those prices per round for a muni with all the attendant extra costs mentioned from travel for out of towners to caddie fees along with comparative public golf costs for that market, one could only see those number of rounds decrease.

You would think a sharp operator could come in and take over a gen manager position and make it go handsomely on 5.5 in sales/rev.  Maybe, I'm just naive...  ::) :)
No actual golf rounds were ruined or delayed, nor golf rules broken, in the taking of any photographs that may be displayed by the above forum user.

Greg Chambers

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #101 on: January 04, 2011, 11:28:19 AM »
$175 for a muni course is insane.

If $175 is insane for Chambers Bay, then $250 is insane for Bandon.
Have you played the course?




Bandon is a destination golf resort with four courses on property.  CB is a stand alone muni.  I haven't played the course, and I don't have to to say that $175 for a muni is insane.
"It's good sportsmanship to not pick up lost golf balls while they are still rolling.”

John Kirk

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #102 on: January 04, 2011, 11:41:45 AM »
i'd have to agree, Adam.  Something is very strange about that 5.5Mm when the debt cost at 5% on a muni rate (very high figure) is about 1.2 and dedicate 1M to retirement paydown, and 1.5 to maintenance.  Methinks the management co is walking away with about 1.8 or so...

At those prices per round for a muni with all the attendant extra costs mentioned from travel for out of towners to caddie fees along with comparative public golf costs for that market, one could only see those number of rounds decrease.

You would think a sharp operator could come in and take over a gen manager position and make it go handsomely on 5.5 in sales/rev.  Maybe, I'm just naive...  ::) :)

I know for a fact that your estimate of $1.5M for maintenance costs is high.  As of 2008, the number was considerably less.  $1M is a better estimate.

It's hard for a Pacific Northwest course to get more than 30,000 rounds.

$21M is just too much to spend on a golf course.  The chances of financial viability at that cost are slim at best.

Speaking of maintenance, the course will be more attractive once fescues are better established in the waste areas. 

Lou_Duran

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #103 on: January 04, 2011, 11:43:39 AM »
Lou Duran,

I feel compelled, out of the goodness in my heart, to call you on this one.  I just checked the Forbes 400 list of wealthiest Americans for the years 2000 and 2010.

According to Forbes, Gates was worth $63B in 2000, but only $54B in 2010.  So he's down 14% or so over the last decade, like the rest of us.

The S&P 500 was around 1450 in September, 2000, and is around 1250 now, which is also a 14% drop in value.  He would have to take some significant capital gains to diversify (now 15%), but Washington state has no state income tax.

Bless your good heart Mr. Kirk.  Maybe after planning his estate and taking many billions of his hard earned dollars from the reach of the "Death Tax" Mr. Gates is now comparatively poorer at $54 Billion.  Mind you, I bear no grudge against the man- I actually greatly admire him but for one thing: his well-publicized desire to codify his preferences on the dispostion of wealth into law.  And I have no dog in this fight as I will inheret nothing of significant monetary value or will likely leave an estate to my heirs that would warrant the attention of your sort.  Not only from  a "fairness" perspective, but more so from a moral foundation, I claim no right to the fruits of anyone else's wealth, their property, and to do as they will with it.

That said, perhaps my thoughts on Mr. Gates' expanding wealth are misinformed.  However, using available metrics, he remains near the top of American wealth.  Even without any necessary adjustments for his expenditures and charitable giving, you suggest his wealth "declined" in step with the economy (using the S & P as a proxy).  As of closing yesterday, I am down 36% on my MSFT investment, with the largest part of it being made in the mid-late '90s as I recall (reinvesting dividends for most of that period).  Again, I am not assigning blame to Gates; no CEO ever put a gun to my head and forced me to buy stock in their company.  If I am frustrated, it is of my own doing, and regret bringing it public here.  Sorry.

Quote from: Jim Nugent on Yesterday at 07:45:13 PM
According to the News Tribune, "Chambers Bay finished 2009 with a deficit of $1.3 million on revenue of $5.5 million.  One reason: fewer golfers willing to pay up to $169 for a round of golf.

According to its latest financial report, golfers played 31,834 rounds in 2009 – 17 percent fewer than the previous year. The course budgeted for 36,372 rounds in 2009.  In addition, food and beverage sales declined 15 percent. Merchandise sales were down 22 percent."

Average revenue per round was around $172.  That includes food, beverage and merchandise sales.  But they needed another $40 per round to break even.  Interesting that even the 36,372 rounds they budgeted would still have brought a loss, assuming peripheral sales stayed the same per person.  

At costs of $6.8 million, we can figure out how many rounds they needed in 2009 to break even at various price points.  The prices include food, beverage and merchandise sales.  I'm assuming costs stay the same, no matter how many rounds they handle.  (They may not.)  

At $100 a round Chambers Bay needed 68,000 rounds.  At $75, it needed over 90,000 rounds.  

$6.8 million in costs seem real heavy to me.  Wonder what that includes, and how they could bring the figure down.  


Great information here Jim.  Like our budget problems at various levels of government, the focus should be on the spending side, yet the inclination is to focus on revenues.  A return to a more normal economy will help revenues, but not nearly enough to reach BE.  It would indeed be interesting to have an unobstructed look at the books, but as Archie Struthers noted in another thread, the transparency we should demand of public expenditures and are required of publicly traded companies is not likely.  My bet is that the $6.8 Million includes a bunch of non-golf related political functions as well as others that do little to contribute to the bottom line.

I am astounded that the course did over 38,000 rounds in 2008.  Maybe ratings do drive volume, but then it is up to the course to capture those first time players.  I wonder if this figure includes non-revenue rounds, and what percentage is attributed to corporate outings.  I would have thought that 38,000 rounds would be at the upper end of the range once operations are stabalized.  In that environment, I can't see much upside on # of rounds, so essentially variable pricing strategies may be counterproductive, which means that revenue measures are nearly impossible.

One other consideration is that the course will one day need a permanent clubhouse.  If the course in its current form cost $21 Million- though we don't know how much of this includes the cost of remediation and site preparation- how much will the new clubhouse set the good folks of the community back?    

« Last Edit: January 04, 2011, 11:47:49 AM by Lou_Duran »

Phil McDade

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #104 on: January 04, 2011, 11:49:55 AM »
Where's Choi when we need him? ???

Everyone keeps throwing around this "$21 million" figure for "a golf course," and I have yet to see anything that suggests that's what the county spent on the CBay golf course in and of itself.

Wasn't this a 900+ acre site? Used to be a mine? Bought by the county some 10 years prior to the golf course being built? Aren't there other recreational uses of this property?

I'm not trying to defend CBay here, or its inability to lure more golfers. Just trying to get some context into the discussion.

John -- 30,000 rounds seems low. How long is the (practical) season there? It's gotta' be more than six months.

Greg Chambers

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #105 on: January 04, 2011, 12:00:47 PM »
$5.5 million in revenue should be plenty to operate an 18 hole facility in the black.  Something stinks here, and it stinks real bad...
"It's good sportsmanship to not pick up lost golf balls while they are still rolling.”

Garland Bayley

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #106 on: January 04, 2011, 12:04:51 PM »
$175 for a muni course is insane.

If $175 is insane for Chambers Bay, then $250 is insane for Bandon.
Have you played the course?





Bandon is a destination golf resort with four courses on property.  CB is a stand alone muni.  I haven't played the course, and I don't have to to say that $175 for a muni is insane.


Bethpage Black is $130 weekdays, $150 weekends, and was built with federal money during the depression.
I guess insanity runs rampant on the coasts.

Everyone keeps saying Bandon makes it because there are four courses. How conveniently everyone forgets they started with one, and were not suffering for a lack of golfers.

Golfweek top modern has Chambers Bay ranked higher than Bandon Trails. So if you are willing to pay $250 to play Bandon Trails, you should be delighted to pay $175 to play Chambers Bay.

So Greg, if you have paid $250 to play Bandon Trails, I would have to wonder about your sanity. ;)
"I enjoy a course where the challenges are contained WITHIN it, and recovery is part of the game  not a course where the challenge is to stay ON it." Jeff Warne

Mike Sweeney

Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #107 on: January 04, 2011, 12:05:57 PM »
I am not sure why Chambers Bay is taking a hit here, as I loved what I saw on TV last summer. It seems like you can replace the words CB with just about any golf course built in the last 10 years outside of the Bandon Resort courses and the figures and numbers would probably be similar.

My guess is the debt did not match the true market time to payoff. It will make Lou crazy but as a muni, they will get as much time as they need to restructure as the county will not let this change their bond rating over $21 million.

Just for perspective of comparing leisure infrastructure, Disney is launching two cruise ships this year that EACH cost $1.0 billion dollars. Most cruise ships cost $600-700 million. I have no idea how long the payoff is on those cruise ships, but it is probably longer than a golf course and a golf course does not "wear out".

How many times did Fishers Island almost go bankrupt?
« Last Edit: January 04, 2011, 12:08:47 PM by Mike Sweeney »

Greg Chambers

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #108 on: January 04, 2011, 12:08:37 PM »
Garland,

You're comparing apples to oranges with the Bandon v CB.  Two completely different models.  The purpose of a muni is to provide affordable golf to the masses, and $175/round ain't that.

BTW, I haven't knocked the course itself at all.  From what I've seen, it looks like a great place.  But I am certainly questioning their business model.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2011, 12:13:27 PM by Greg Chambers »
"It's good sportsmanship to not pick up lost golf balls while they are still rolling.”

RJ_Daley

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #109 on: January 04, 2011, 12:15:56 PM »
I know we had some interesting discussion on here about the site development before construction even started, and the gents from the area weighing in on the rationale being thrown around to go forward with the project.  Jay Blasi and others near the project made a number of posts.  

I'm just not one to try and dig up the old posts, with this bauky search engine.  ::) ;D

As I remember, the cement company went under, and there was no funds available to clean up the site.  It strikes me that it was truly a waste site in need of clean-up, and I'm not sure why the EPA fund didn't come to bare.  Hell, even Kohler got $$ for clean-up aspects of Whistling STraits, but then he was a crony with GHWB and well wired...  ::) :o

But, as much as I love golf and to see great GCA go forward, it can't be at the cost of the local muni at these rates, it seems to me.  If a generous benefactor like an Allen or Gates don't come forward and gift something like this to the community, I really don't see how it could go forward at those projected costs.  But, it did, and with 5.5million in rev, I still can't see why this is losing $$$.   I also can't see that if they don't straighten out the answer to how to market this as is, and make it go, how they can sink more in for a speculation that upping the ante on food and bev will pull them out of the spiral.

Now, the real hard test seems to me to keep those that still would play at these high comparative prices to other public golf to keep coming back (no matter how good it is).  I know that my comments were high on maintenance costs and actual cost to pay interest on the bond, but just for consideration of the higher cost of the issue with fussy fescue management and wiggle room, it seems that there is still ample room to refigure a  budget that makes sense.  I bet a guy like 'big JIm Thompon could make it go, or I'd put Lou on the case, seriously!!! But, I'd keep him off the computer and out of local political chat rooms out there... ::) ;) ;D
No actual golf rounds were ruined or delayed, nor golf rules broken, in the taking of any photographs that may be displayed by the above forum user.

George Pazin

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #110 on: January 04, 2011, 12:23:43 PM »
...and with 5.5million in rev, I still can't see why this is losing $$$.

It's quite simple - when you play with OPM, you don't place the necessary priority on controlling costs.
Big drivers and hot balls are the product of golf course design that rewards the hit one far then hit one high strategy.  Shinny showed everyone how to take care of this whole technology dilemma. - Pat Brockwell, 6/24/04

Bill_McBride

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #111 on: January 04, 2011, 12:24:23 PM »
$175 for a muni course is insane.

Finally McBride, you clearly don't understand what a Microsoft millionaire is. You insinuate that is executives that made out like bandits. In reality, Microsoft millionaires come from across the company. A very high percentage of the technical people that joined the company early enough are Microsoft millionaires. If you bought the stock during the early years, there was a good chance you could become a Microsoft millionaire. The company went from nothing to being valued at one point as the most valuable company in the world if my memory serves me right. If you got in at the beginning you were going to make out like a bandit. Clearly Lou got in after the growth peaked.


That's "Mister McBride" to you!

Nothing tough to comprehend about "Microsoft millionaires."  People who work/worked for Microsoft and cashed in stock for a fortune.  I didn't say it was a pejorative.

What happened to that "Gambers Baysound" guy?   ???

Well, I recon I'll start referring to you as Mister McBride when you start referring to me as Dr. Bayley. As far as comprehending Microsoft millionaires is concerned, you earlier claimed it was "insiders" which would mean certain high level execs and members of the accounting or financial departments. Now it is just "people" employed by Microsoft. You are still leaving out those with the insight to buy the stock of a company with a bright future.

Gambers Baysound is that guy that is trying to give up this addictive habit.


Here's my original quote, I never said anything about "insiders."

"Lou, I was amazed, several years during a college reunion on Orcas Island in the San Juans, to learn that virtually all the large homes, either new or under construction, were built by the so-called "Microsoft Millionaires.""

I think calling me "McBride" is pretty rude.

Garland Bayley

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #112 on: January 04, 2011, 12:24:39 PM »
Where's Choi when we need him? ???

What do you need Richard for? He's somewhat expert on playing the course, not necessarily on the history.

Everyone keeps throwing around this "$21 million" figure for "a golf course," and I have yet to see anything that suggests that's what the county spent on the CBay golf course in and of itself.

I organized the GCA.COM pre-opening outing at Chambers Bay. If my memory serves me right, 21 million is the figure that RTJ II, Inc. gave us as the cost to build the course, buildings, and walking path. A significant portion of that went to remediation of the site as I posted earlier.

Wasn't this a 900+ acre site? Used to be a mine? Bought by the county some 10 years prior to the golf course being built? Aren't there other recreational uses of this property?

As I mentioned, there is a walking path (paved) through the golf course starting on Grandview Drive, which is most appropriately named. Clearly far more people use the site for free every day than use it to play golf. They can walk the length of the course on the walking path off Grandview Drive, and then down through the course and back to their starting point as they exit the course grounds.

I'm not trying to defend CBay here, or its inability to lure more golfers. Just trying to get some context into the discussion.

John -- 30,000 rounds seems low. How long is the (practical) season there? It's gotta' be more than six months.

The season here is 12 months minus perhaps at most two weeks for a few weather closures like frozen grounds for a few days, or snow on the ground for a day or two. Very similar to Bandon. I had friends take a trip to Bandon around Thanksgiving, and they were not allowed on a course for one whole day, because of frozen turf. However, the vast majority of golfers choose not to play perhaps six of those months due to the rain.

« Last Edit: January 04, 2011, 12:26:50 PM by Garland Bayley »
"I enjoy a course where the challenges are contained WITHIN it, and recovery is part of the game  not a course where the challenge is to stay ON it." Jeff Warne

Garland Bayley

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #113 on: January 04, 2011, 12:30:58 PM »
Lou, you mentioned the "drift to socialism" in the context of the MSFT insiders making fortunes while you didn't, so I'm not sure exactly where Madison and the "drift to socialism" come into the picture.

Bill,

Which part of that does not say "insiders"?

"I enjoy a course where the challenges are contained WITHIN it, and recovery is part of the game  not a course where the challenge is to stay ON it." Jeff Warne

Tim Nugent

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #114 on: January 04, 2011, 12:31:31 PM »
Through the haze, I'm beginning to see.
The county bought the property 10 yrs ago - 900+ acres, (that's a pretty hefty chunk of RE)
As a Brownfield, it was in need of some restoration/cleanup - but that could cost a lot of money.
Soooo, it can't be just a passive park, it needs to have some Revenue producing component to pay for the cleanup.
Hey, a Golf Course makes money and can be made as part of the cleanup.
But, $35/round, like the other Muni's won't make it fly - we need to charge more, a lot more.
Let's bring in a BIG NAME architect who will attract a National audience. Then we can charge whatever we need to pay for everything. And all those travellers will have to rent cars, buy meals and stay in hotels - everybody wins.
Coasting is a downhill process

Bill_McBride

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #115 on: January 04, 2011, 12:33:23 PM »
Lou, you mentioned the "drift to socialism" in the context of the MSFT insiders making fortunes while you didn't, so I'm not sure exactly where Madison and the "drift to socialism" come into the picture.

Bill,

Which part of that does not say "insiders"?



Read a little farther back, I was responding to Lou.

Richard Choi

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #116 on: January 04, 2011, 12:44:04 PM »
OK, let's dispense with a lot of the speculations around here and let's get to some facts.

Here are the budget costs for Chambers Bay via Pierce County's published budget reports:

2004: $607,520
2005: $4,517,230
2006: $14,378,220
2007: $7,456,640

For 2007, the revenue was $2.4 million and the operating expense was $1.7 million, but I believe that included the cost of buying the equipment. There is a bond payment of about $900k, so for them to be profitable, the revenue needs to be $1 million over expense. I believe they should expect about $2.1 to $2.5 million in revenue yearly, which means they need to keep the operating expense at $1 million and lower. Whether or not that is realistic, I will leave to others who know better.

As to the construction cost. You have to remember that the entire property is close to 1000 acres and they had to do some significant earth moving just to get rid of all the damage done by the sand/gravel mine that existed before. It would not surprise me if that alone took a huge chunk of the $21 million budget. There are also a public bridge, footpath, and two separate public park areas. Not usual construction items you see on a golf course. My guess is the course probably cost around $15 million to build.

As to the green fees. That was set by Kemper Sports, not the county, based on their experience with other similar properties (i.e Bandon Dunes). So, if you want to blame someone for that, blame the private enterprise that set it, not the government officials.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2011, 12:51:53 PM by Richard Choi »

George Pazin

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #117 on: January 04, 2011, 12:48:38 PM »
As to the green fees. That was set by Kemper Sports, not the county, based on their experience with other similar properties (i.e Bandon Dunes). So, if you want to blame someone for that, blame the private enterprise that set it, not the government officials.


Sorry, Richard, the buck stops with the owner.

At any rate, it's interesting how different your figures are from the earlier numbers tossed around, thanks for digging them up.
Big drivers and hot balls are the product of golf course design that rewards the hit one far then hit one high strategy.  Shinny showed everyone how to take care of this whole technology dilemma. - Pat Brockwell, 6/24/04

RJ_Daley

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #118 on: January 04, 2011, 12:52:50 PM »
George, PingWOPM at unseemly risk seems to be the way of the world in all sectors of the economy, with the few odd exceptions, no?

Wall st plays with other people's money.  And, I guess you are correct, they don't pay much attention to costs or risk, as we painfully see, since their skin don't actually seem to be in the fire with bonus's even if there is failure.

Relating this to the decisions at CB, I think the important point to be investigated is, did certain people in the decision process improperly or disproportionately benefit from playing with other people's money, or money other people may have to continue to pay in subsidies to the original bonding concept, to keep this going?  The bonding process and mechanism is one thing, based on issuance and bond buyers taking risk.  Wouldn't a little due diligence by those bond raters find that the whole set up does not make economic sense based on the numbers of the known market that could be supported? It seems to me if a simple SOB like myself, and many others who have weighed in and can sense up front it is too much borrowing to be supported by an unproven and unlikely market, then I'd have to think a few geniuses that actually rate these issuances could figure that out.  But, now after the fact, the burden to taxpayers on the ongoing basis seems to me to be a folllow-on question to be answered.  

In the case of Wall st bailouts and the like, as was argued earlier, someone who has played and is playing with OPM is getting handsome bonus and undeserved benefit from all of US for failure and cavallier attitudes about OPM.  The OP whose money or whose strength of our money system via fed reserve machinations is being put on all of our shoulders is grotesque and unconscionable, IMHO.

 At CB, is OPM being spent now to subsidize failure and yet going to unduly enhance the management co.?  

I don't know the correct answer.  But it seems several of us on this discussion smell something rotten and fishy emanating from the shores of that Sound.  
No actual golf rounds were ruined or delayed, nor golf rules broken, in the taking of any photographs that may be displayed by the above forum user.

George Pazin

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #119 on: January 04, 2011, 01:01:19 PM »
George, PingWOPM at unseemly risk seems to be the way of the world in all sectors of the economy, with the few odd exceptions, no?

There is a world of difference between playing with public tax money and playing with investment capital, but each have their own built-in hazards.
Big drivers and hot balls are the product of golf course design that rewards the hit one far then hit one high strategy.  Shinny showed everyone how to take care of this whole technology dilemma. - Pat Brockwell, 6/24/04

Jud_T

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #120 on: January 04, 2011, 01:08:30 PM »
ok- I propose that going forward anyone who makes a non-golf related eco/political comment on this board, including myself, buys the first round of drinks at the next gathering of 2 or more GCA folks....wherupon we can engage in a drunken heated eco/political discussion....
Golf is a game. We play it. Somewhere along the way we took the fun out of it and charged a premium to be punished.- - Ron Sirak

RJ_Daley

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #121 on: January 04, 2011, 01:36:38 PM »
Jud, OK, but what do we do with the fiscal-political and socio-political topics?  ::) :)  It seems to me that golf is all about eco/political and in this case at CB, fiscal/political.  How can you ignore a key aspect of the topic and continue to discuss the issue?

I am sure a comment like mine, or the one that set you on your long series of debating points on investment and risk and whose money and all that gets your dander up.  But, your plea for diversion from sticky topics and retiring to the next communal 19th hole won't really be any more effective than the last 10000 pleas for same over the many years here on GCA.com. We just can't help ourselves.  ;D
No actual golf rounds were ruined or delayed, nor golf rules broken, in the taking of any photographs that may be displayed by the above forum user.

Garland Bayley

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #122 on: January 04, 2011, 01:39:02 PM »
Garland,

You're comparing apples to oranges with the Bandon v CB.  Two completely different models.  The purpose of a muni is to provide affordable golf to the masses, and $175/round ain't that.

BTW, I haven't knocked the course itself at all.  From what I've seen, it looks like a great place.  But I am certainly questioning their business model.

Greg,

The masses are paying $49 green fees right now. For the quality of golf there that is pretty affordable.

Off hand I know of only one other municipality that has regular munis and a premium muni. That would be Bismarck ND, where the regular munis are getting an $18 green fee, and Hawktree is getting $70. Don't know exactly what the green fee goes to for the summer at Chambers Bay, because the information is not on their website. They do give $75 for April and May.

If you go to Chambers Bay, you did not put up any of the money to build the place, you are not obligated to carry any of the debt through your water and sewage district, so your playing there is very much analogous to your playing at Bandon. The quality of the golf is comparable, so where's you reluctance for paying $175 coming from?
"I enjoy a course where the challenges are contained WITHIN it, and recovery is part of the game  not a course where the challenge is to stay ON it." Jeff Warne

Tim Leahy

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Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #123 on: January 04, 2011, 02:31:03 PM »
No carts, no cash!
I love golf, the fightin irish, and beautiful women depending on the season and availability.

Garland Bayley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Chambers Bay Struggling Financially
« Reply #124 on: January 04, 2011, 03:08:54 PM »
No carts, no cash!

Don't worry Tim. They take credit cards at Chambers Bay just like they do at that other cartless place in the PNW, Bandon Dunes.
"I enjoy a course where the challenges are contained WITHIN it, and recovery is part of the game  not a course where the challenge is to stay ON it." Jeff Warne

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