The mood is very depressing here of late.....
I don't think the answer is 1,000 1 man do-it-yourself shops around the US, or Europe. The more likely result will be GCA's finding jobs in other careers..... golf is basically dead in the US.... There will always be work, but not enough to sustain the numbers we have now.
Plus, those architects who have no construction experience aren't going to be able to jump on a machine and start learning in this economy. Where are they going to practice? And how much longer are they going to spend on a machine vs. a shaper who's been running a dozer for 20 years..... I'm sure the client will be getting just as good of a value from the experienced operator and the architects supervision. Time IS money.... and the going rate for shapers is falling, falling, falling.......
American designers are going to have to travel, and travel a lot further then they have before if they want to stay in the business.
Blockbuster was a monopoly, nobody ever liked Blockbuster.... it was a terrible and overpriced service, mangled with late fees, and memberships, a terrible model that people put up with because it was the only available option. Technology killed Blockbuster..... and the fact that it was still trying to hang on to a failed model while waiting too long to adapt.
I think everyone is forgetting that architects "design". Design can not be replaced.... its a creative process that is undertaken by people who have an information advantage.... There is more value for what you know, then what you can physically do.... Anyone can learn to run a bulldozer, but someone needs to tell them what to do...... Someone needs to give the client a plan, or sell them an idea.
If anyone seriously thinks architects will get replaced by "shapers" I feel bad. If an architect feels they are not valued by a client, I think its time for them to move on. I don't think America is going to sell out to cheap and easy, people here value quality and will pay for it. There will be less projects, of course, and smaller firm. Design-build will have its place, probably a bigger share, but experienced contractors are still valued, as are architects and their DESIGN.