The long-term effect of waves on Bandon's courses

[Dan Herrmann]

Very interesting article from NOAA:  "The Wave of the Future:  Higher Waves Increase Erosion and Flooding Along the Oregon Coast"

http://www.noaa.gov/features/03_protecting/index.html



That said, what could be the impact to the Bandon courses?  Could PD #11 eventually need to be moved east?  Or - are the courses high enough above the beach that impact would be minimal?

What about increased wave activity on other seaside courses around the world?

[Michael Dugger]

I can't imagine the waves rising enough to affect the Bandon courses, that would be catastrophic.

[JC Jones]

If they eat away at the base of the bluff for a long enough time it could potentially cause a problem.

Didn't a part of Trump's course in LA fall into the sea?

[Pete Lavallee]

Didn't a part of Trump's course in LA fall into the sea?

Whoa, don't try to compare these two sites! The Palos Verdes site is in a geographically unstable area; the nearby Portegeses Bend section of Palos Verdes Drive used to move 6 inches per year before it was stabilized. The strata of the cliffs all tilts towards the Ocean there and can easily slip over a layer and tumble into the sea. I don't believe this is the case at Bandon; although I could be wrong.

[David_Tepper]

My understanding is that much of the Pacific Ocean coastline in the U.S. is relatively new in geological terms. Several of the holes at the Olympic Club (in San Francisco) that sit on a bluff well above the the ocean shoreline (similar to Bandon) have experienced damaging landslides over the past 30 years.  The 4 holes of the Ocean Course (built west of Skyline Blvd. in the mid-1990's) had to be abandoned due to a major landslide.  The green on the 4th hole of the par-3 Cliffs Course (built in the early-1990's) has twice been lost due to erosion.  

Very little in nature lasts forever.

[Pete_Pittock]

Dan,
  My brother installed wave and tide gauges along the Oregon coast and elsewhere in the 60s and 70s for the Coast & Geodetic Survey (now part of NOAA) so his data represents the early reference points. The height of the Bandon courses above the beaches is not a gamesaver since the bluffs would erode away from the beach and gravity takes care of the rest. A perfect solution would allow BDR to place riprap along the length of the courses, but that would be a prohibitive cost. I have not been down on the beach to see what transpires at the base of the cliffs. Any breaks in, or at the ends of, the riprap would accentuate erosion at those points. A great study of coastal erosion in Oregon happened when a speculative destination resort at Bayview, south of Tillamook was destroyed by wave action. That occured because the jetty (ies) at the Tillamook bar (bay entrance) were extended and that changed the flow of the ocean currents so they now hit shore at Bayview.
  Wave heights may be increasing, but that could be because the original data represented a natural low point, but it is probably cyclical and will likely tend to diminish as more data is obtained. A rising sea level is a different matter altogether.
  

[Richard Choi]

We had a erosion study done a coastal property and they said nothing on the west coast is going to be around in ten to twenty thousand years. But should be fine for our lifetime!

[David_Tepper]

I should also add that, here in the SF Bay Area, we have seen houses and apartment buildings built on bluffs sitting well above (and, at one time, well back from) the coastal shoreline destroyed as the ground beneath them has given way due to heavy rainfall and the pounding of the ocean.  In the past 20 years, it has happened south of San Francisco in Pacifica and north of SF in Bodega Bay.

[Carl Rogers]

Dear Thread Participants,

There is a clearly understood fact that the sea levels are rising.  The impact will vary from region to region.  

Can clear facts be separated from speculation?  Is course management at Bandon doing any measurements?

[David_Tepper]

Carl Rogers -

I don't think the damage I have seen to the coastline in the SF Bay Area is primarily attributable to rising sea levels. I think it is more a consequence of the power of the Pacific Ocean, the storms it generates and the relative "newness" (geologically speaking) and instability of many of the landforms along the Pacific Ocean coastline. I don't think there is a whole lot that can be done to stabilize coastal cliffs and bluffs that are 100, 200 or 300 feet or more in height. Nature is the most powerful force of all.

As Richard Choi has noted, the Pacific coastline is liable to look quite a bit different in 10,000 years.

DT
 
   

[Tom_Doak]

Well, I am in Bandon tonight, and I would never underestimate the power of the Pacific Ocean.  We named our first course after it in the hope the ocean would be kind to us.

But, I don't know of any erosion along the coastal holes in Bandon in the eleven years since the resort opened.  Honestly, I have never seen the waves here get up to the base of the cliff ... it's a big, wide, tilted beach.  I am sure it will happen with regularity someday, but I am guessing that won't be until long after we are all gone from the earth.

[Pete_Pittock]

I heard there was at least a land slump between Bandon Dunes' 6th green and the ocean, but that it is "restored" and marked GUR.
 

[Tom Jefferson]

Pete;
The slump you refer to did in fact occur, just to the north of the greenside bunker on #6 at BD.  An engineered wall has been installed, with fill and turf in place above that structure consistent with the shape found there previously.
It was a 'top down' event, meaning it was local to the top of the cliff, and not caused by wave events at the bottom of the cliff....the topic of this thread.

Much of the base of the cliffs at BDGR is protected by low dunes, which effectively keeps the high tides away from the base; it is as Tom D stated, broad and tilted, with a bit of dunes to protect.  However, there are also sections where the highest tides combined with winter storm waves do get quite close to the base.

There are some small sections of hole #13 at PD that are undercut by several feet, i.e., there is a dense sand layer several feet thick located a couple of feet underneath the playing surface there, with softer sand below that layer that is eroding somewhat; we do expect to see a small slump or two at some time.............again, a 'top down' event.

The strata underneath all the bandon property is essentially sand, different in origination and material from the slumps mentioned at the Olympic Club.  That cliff is typical of much of Northern California.....higher clay content and relatively youthful history....as others have mentioned the entire nw corner of nor cal is rising rapidly and has alot of serpentine soils....very slippery indeed.  Thus the many slumps along Hwy 1 from Big Sur north, including near Sharp Park and all the way north to the border.  Back when I played OC, in the early seventies, the Ocean course holes played across large slumps, suggesting a long history of the instability of that cliff edge.

That's what I know!....not much, but hope it helps.

Tom

[Pete_Pittock]

Tom,
Thanks for the reply about the slump, and glad it wasn't wave-related.

[Jim Nugent]

Dear Thread Participants,

There is a clearly understood fact that the sea levels are rising.  

At the dizzying rate of one foot per century.  This is a non-issue. 

[Craig Sweet]

Actually looking at something closer to 3-4 feet (1M) in the next 90 years Jim...There are several google maps available that can model the resulting possibilities. This is going to happen even if humankind disappeared from the planet tomorrow...and we know that ain't gonna happen, so maybe we should change our atitude from this being a "non issue" to what's our plan?

[Jim Nugent]

Craig, actual data shows 3.1 mm per year.  A rate that has slowed down the last five years.  In fact, sea levels retreated in 2006, and look like they may have in 2010 as well. 

Environmental models that claim they can predict what will happen 90 years from now are the joke of jokes.  They usually can't predict what will happen next year, next month or even next week. 

[Anthony Gray]

  Phuket has recovered nicely.I don't think it will a problem in Bandon,if so than years away.

  Anthony

[Dan Herrmann]

FYI - Here's the text of the article I referred to in post #1.  Keep in mind we're talking about monster waves, not necessarily increased sea levels here.


Monster Waves: A Very Real Threat
The researchers set out to recalculate the potential height of a massive, once-in-a-hundred-years wave. In the early 1990s, scientists thought, based on buoy data, that such a wave would be about 33 feet high. Then in 1997-98, the Oregon Coast experienced a series of waves 33 feet and higher. Those came during an El Niño year—when waters near the equator in the Pacific are warmer and waves higher.

“Data covering a period of more than 30 years now indicate that a 100-year wave could reach 46 feet or even higher,” says Ruggiero. Some local communities, like Neskowin, have installed walls of riprap, or loose broken stone, as a shield from the waves.

The riprap is a stop-gap measure while communities work to identify longer-term solutions. Oregon Sea Grant is playing a key role in bridging the research findings and community efforts to adapt to the changing environment.

NOAA Research Helps Communities Plan for the Future


To assess the effects of these large waves and sea-level rise on the coastline, Corcoran and Sea Grant colleagues are measuring the changing shoreline and assessing community vulnerability in light of a changing climate.

With this data, they are developing management tools and integrating the best available science into local decision making — focusing on Neskowin as a case community for adapting to the ongoing erosion problem.

The Oregon state Land Conservation and Development Department also is funding a pilot effort to draft a county hazards adaptation plan for Tillamook County where Neskowin is located. The NOAA Sea Grant work will generate invaluable information and hazard assessments for the adaptation plan.

“This is exciting to me because it applies Oregon State and NOAA research directly to a problem of pressing local concern,” says Corcoran. “It’s also exciting to see that so many partners are converging on this issue in this community at this time.”

Oregon Sea Grant is funded by NOAA through Oregon State University. Sea Grant is a nationwide network of 32 university-based programs that work with coastal communities. The National Sea Grant College Program engages this network of the nation’s top universities in conducting scientific research, education, training, and extension projects designed to foster science-based decisions about the use and conservation of our aquatic resources.

[Dan Herrmann]

Charlie - the abundance of tsunami evacuation signs speaks well to your concern.

I originally posted this with Bandon Dunes #16 in mind.  Perhaps PD #4 too - especially that spot right of the green which is, well, a cliff.  Granted, it's a fair distance from the cliffs to the ocean, but some of those Oregon waves can be amazingly strong.

I'm just saying that it'd be a good idea to create a contingency plan and tuck it away - hopefully never to be used!

[Anthony Gray]

  I was in Phuket Thailand a little time ago and there are no lasting affects of the tsunami.

  Anthony

[Craig Sweet]

Jim, i am not sure where you are getting your data, but 6 years ago the best data was looking at somewhere near 50-80 centimeters...but newer data looks at how quickly melting ice can discharge into the sea and the 1 meter is now thought to be very possible.

Jim, this isnt rocket science. The mass of available ice can be roughly measured quite easily. The current melt rate is easily measured. Projecting how much mass will melt over time, at the current rate is pretty basic science and math.

As better mapping is available, and geological land forms, slope, distance, soils etc. can be brought into the equation, better computer models are made...

Just as better telescopes allow us to see further into the past of our universe, boring deeper into the ice allows us to see our climatic past and how the earth has cooled and warmed over thousands of years....we are able to better understand how long these warm periods last...It all feeds into computer models...as our knowldge expands, or models get better. And the computer models, along with the science, are overwhelmingly saying our climate is getting warmer.


For you to say computer models are a joke is simply wrong.

[Niall C]

Craig

Maybe you are right that computer models aren't a joke but perhaps what Jim was getting at was some of the asumptions that have gone into them that are suspect. For quite a number of years we have had the man-made climate change lobby telling us that temperatures and consequently sea levels are rising, the latter as a result of melting ice-caps, and will continue to do so if man kind doesn't mend its ways. Hence, computer models based on this premis that if you follow it it to its logical conclusion, will have the whole of man kind eventually drowning.

More sober research in recent years however suggests that these things go in 60 to 70 year cycles over which the polar ice caps expand and contract, hence one of them, can remember which, is presently expanding.

Trends however don't cover random acts of nature such as large storms whose power I imagine could destabilise shore lines quite quickly. There was a series called Coast on the BBC which traced the coastline of the UK and in one programme it showed where waves had lifted very large boulders to the top of cliffs 50 or 60 feet high. Its not hard to imagine a one off storm reeking huge amount of damage to a seaside course such as Bandon, and it certainly wouldn't be the first.

Niall

[Steve Lang]

;<))

I am reminded of a famous quote of Archie Bunker, something to the effect of: "awwwww, God's just waiting for all the crazies to move to California before he let's the whole damn thing slide into the sea!"

But really, if those cliffs were to be knocked down or slide down a bit, wouldn't that create some great new topography?

[William_G]

Pete;
The slump you refer to did in fact occur, just to the north of the greenside bunker on #6 at BD.  An engineered wall has been installed, with fill and turf in place above that structure consistent with the shape found there previously.
It was a 'top down' event, meaning it was local to the top of the cliff, and not caused by wave events at the bottom of the cliff....the topic of this thread.

Much of the base of the cliffs at BDGR is protected by low dunes, which effectively keeps the high tides away from the base; it is as Tom D stated, broad and tilted, with a bit of dunes to protect.  However, there are also sections where the highest tides combined with winter storm waves do get quite close to the base.

There are some small sections of hole #13 at PD that are undercut by several feet, i.e., there is a dense sand layer several feet thick located a couple of feet underneath the playing surface there, with softer sand below that layer that is eroding somewhat; we do expect to see a small slump or two at some time.............again, a 'top down' event.

The strata underneath all the bandon property is essentially sand, different in origination and material from the slumps mentioned at the Olympic Club.  That cliff is typical of much of Northern California.....higher clay content and relatively youthful history....as others have mentioned the entire nw corner of nor cal is rising rapidly and has alot of serpentine soils....very slippery indeed.  Thus the many slumps along Hwy 1 from Big Sur north, including near Sharp Park and all the way north to the border.  Back when I played OC, in the early seventies, the Ocean course holes played across large slumps, suggesting a long history of the instability of that cliff edge.

That's what I know!....not much, but hope it helps.

Tom

thanks Tom, saw that slump last week. It is about a 100 foot drop almost straight down right there 15 yards left of the green. Reminds me of glacier caving. Lots of rain this winter has turned to lots of sun!

Hope that retaining wall holds.....

Sorry no pics, left my bag back by the walkway to 7. Next time.