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Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #125 on: August 05, 2005, 08:55:30 PM »
RG...Miss Wie probably has little desire to have a tour card. But if she should decide she wants one, I for one will not bet against her.

But that was not my question. How do you think she'll do on the PGA tour?
No one is above the law. LOCK HIM UP!!!

rgkeller

Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #126 on: August 05, 2005, 09:04:12 PM »
RG...Miss Wie probably has little desire to have a tour card. But if she should decide she wants one, I for one will not bet against her.

But that was not my question. How do you think she'll do on the PGA tour?

Ms. Wie will make cuts on the PGA Tour. She will never win a PGA Tour event. The novelty of her playing on the PGA Tour will wear off and because she won't have a card, her appearances on the big Tour will diminish. She will never reach the career height of, say, Morris Hatalsky.

Brent Hutto

Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #127 on: August 05, 2005, 09:14:14 PM »
Let's talk about the shovel. OK. Team Wie opts to avoid amateur match play competition that include Wie's age pears. That's a fact -- not spin by me.

Once again, "Team Wie" is your phrase not mine but she certainly opted not to enter any junior events this year. Yessir, you got 'er dead to rights there. Pure fact, stick to that kind of thing and we're perfectly in agreement.

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Another fact -- Wie would be overwhelmingly the favorite in such events. Why the ducking?

I can't address "why the ducking" because that's a term you seem to like for its negative connotation. You see "ducking" and I see "bigger fish to fry". Both are just our individual interpretations of her not playing junior golf any longer. Just like you might see a golf course as "a fair and solid challenge" and I might see it as "just plain old ugly and hard". The same course, two different responses.

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Another fact -- Team Wie (Dad and the folks at IMG) are carefully orchestrating this parade of events and what will happen. If you don't think this is happening then you are in major league denial land. Ask the folks at McDonald's if they had any discussion with Michelle's Dad concerning her exemption into a previously LPGA pro event only.

What does "carefully orchestrating" mean exactly? I'd think those words mean they deliberately sat down months in advance and planned out Michelle's summer schedule to take advantage of as many big tournaments (including all four majors, not just the McDonald's) as possible. If that's what you mean then I'd imagine you're correct. You seem to be implying some sort of nefarious conspiracy when in fact I've not heard any denial that Mr. Wie did indeed talk to the sponsors of the McDonald's and many other events in planning this summer. What's wrong with that?

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Oh, of course Brent -- I'm spinning more BS when I say that marketing and the $$ that will come her way has anything at all to do with this. There is an objective reality and I have address it -- because it differs with your take is not my concern or problem.

I agree that much money will come to her on the day she gives up her amateur status. That's maybe not a fact but it surely comports with external reality and would be a major, major shocker if it doesn't come to pass. As for "has to do with all this" I'd say that most of "all this" is coming from you. The Wie family's stated position is that they want her game game to progress as quickly as possible by playing against the best players in the world every chance she gets. The money will come and I've not heard them deny that but when they claim that the competition and her learning are the main priority and there's no objective reality that contradicts them where do you get off screaming Liar, Liar, It's all about the money!

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Brent -- The Wie camp sees amateur competition and avoids it. Better to play in another stroke play events that provides the appropriate cover. I salute Michelle's talent but I know a dodge ball game when I see it. Maybe you're the one who needs to take off the dark glasses and see the motives that are taking place.

Well, she didn't play in amateur events other than the (men's) Publinks so that's a fact. The part about "dodge ball" is made up by you and has no particular basis in fact. As for my seeing those sinister "motives" you talk about, it sounds like you have on those X-ray glasses they used to sell in the back of Boys Life. I have no idea what the Wie family's motive are and neither do you. You're just imagining it and then asserting that your imaginings are reality. Whatever floats your boat, buddy, but it's nothing that anyone but you can logically discuss.

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I just believe it would be nice to see Michelle earn a national championship through the USGA and the Girls Junior and Women's Amateur would be wonderful be vehicles to demonstrate that she can win when played against the peers she will be competing against for the long haul.

OK, that's clear enough. I wouldn't notice if she won or lost at the Girls Junior. I've never cared about that tournament before and wouldn't care about it if Michelle Wie was playing in it. But if that would be cool for you to see, that's your preference. I'd rather have seen her with at Birkdale. Winning a junior tournament is "dog bites man", winning a grown-up major would be "man bites dog" in spades.

Brent Hutto

Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #128 on: August 05, 2005, 09:17:22 PM »
Ms. Wie will make cuts on the PGA Tour. She will never win a PGA Tour event. The novelty of her playing on the PGA Tour will wear off and because she won't have a card, her appearances on the big Tour will diminish. She will never reach the career height of, say, Morris Hatalsky.

I'm not sure Morris Hatalsky is but Keller's guess is pretty much the same as mine. Assuming her game improves even a modest amount over where it has been in 2005, she's likely to make a couple cuts given that she'll be getting lots of sponsor's invites over the next few years. The only way she beats the likes of Tiger Woods or Chris DeMarco or a field of 100 players like Zach Johnson is if her long game keeps improving and she learns to putt like...well, Zach Johnson. Unlikely.

peter_p

Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #129 on: August 05, 2005, 09:23:02 PM »
If someone sets up a women's tournament at 7000 yards and you were an bookmaker, what odds would you set for Annika, for Michelle and for the rest of the field.

Brent Hutto

Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #130 on: August 05, 2005, 09:30:37 PM »
Well, to be precise I'm imagining an LPGA Tour event played at Colonial as it was set up for last year's PGA Tour event. Full field event, four rounds of stroke play, both Annika and Michelle in the field.

Picking just the straight matchup Annika-vs-Michelle I'd give odds of 5:4 in favor of Sorenstam. Experience and putting will make up for the difference off the tee.

In addition, I'd say there's at least a 60% chance that one of the two of them wins the event. So that's akin to saying that Sorenstam has about a one-in-three chance of winning the tournament and Wie has about a one-in-four chance of winning the tournament. As in any tournament there will still be at least a dozen other players in the field who can win the tournament if they have a hot week.

Jim Nugent

Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #131 on: August 05, 2005, 10:31:05 PM »
"Somehow playing lesser competition, on smaller courses with less of a spotlight is a riskier proposition than taking on and beating the best in the world in the most important tournaments on earth? "

When measuring the risk of her marketing value, absolutely.

If she fails on the big stage, her marketing value plunges to zero.  The flip side is that so long as she keeps getting better results on the LPGA and PGA, her value soars higher and higher.   And that is where she plays.  Not the minor league of womenīs amateur golf.   The crem de la crem, where she is one of the most feared players on the course.  

Ty Tryon got his million dollar contract because it looked like he could play the PGA tour at 16.  Not because of any amateur results.  In fact Tryon never won any USGA events.  He turned pro the day after shooting 80 at the U.S. Amateur and failing to make it to match play.  

The world, including the marketing world, is much more interested in how Wie does against the big boys and girls.  If she plays better in 2006 than she did in 2005, her marketing value will leap upward.  If she stagnates, or gets worse results, her marketing value will fall.  

IMO this whole argument misses the point, though.  Wie is not so worried about her net worth.  She knows she is a multi-millionaire the second she turns pro.  She wants to become the greatest golfer of all time.  THAT is what drives her.   So while the girls were playing the U.S. Junior Amateur, she was playing the top pros in the world at the Evian Masters -- and finishing 2nd.  While Pressel and the others were getting ready for the womenīs amateur, she was playing the British Open, where she came in third.   Without those results, she is worth nothing in the marketing world.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2005, 10:33:29 PM by Jim Nugent »

rgkeller

Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #132 on: August 05, 2005, 10:45:50 PM »
The question was which is riskier.

I answered and you avoided the question.

But you did use more words.

John_Conley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Wie/Tiger
« Reply #133 on: August 05, 2005, 11:14:24 PM »
For all the comparisons and contrasts where Shivas and Matt have talked Wie this, Tiger that... some perspective is in order.

Not only didn't Tiger Woods win or make cuts in Tour events as an junior amateur, he really didn't have any decent showings in Majors while in college.  That's right, all the way up through age 20.

What Song, Wie, Pressel, Lang, etc... have done is very impressive.  Similar performances on the men's side are rare.  Baddeley won the Oz Open, Tryon made a few cuts at 16.  Not much else.

Matt will be glad to know Sports Illustrated has a great interview with Morgan this week.  A sweet little girl she's not!  The possibility for an unreal rivalry is there.  The two are so different.

Mike Benham

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wie/Tiger
« Reply #134 on: August 06, 2005, 01:42:37 AM »
The two are so different.


One is robotic, void of expression or creativity ...

The other is fiery and opinionated, wears her emotions on her sleeveless blouse ...


Annika and Dottie ...


And JC, please change your signature.  I don't want my wife or kids reading over my shoulder, seeing your message and questioning my behavior ... ;)
« Last Edit: August 06, 2005, 01:46:42 AM by Mike Benham »
"... and I liked the guy ..."

Jim Nugent

Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #135 on: August 06, 2005, 06:02:54 AM »
The question was which is riskier.

I answered and you avoided the question.

But you did use more words.

If she strikes out on the LPGA and PGA tours, she is of no interest to Nike or anyone else.  Those multi-millions she has in line for herself -- strictly due to her play on the big tours -- vanish.  Continuing results against the top pros impact her far more than play in any amateur event.  

Itīs true that reasons take a bit more space than one-liners.  


rgkeller

Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #136 on: August 06, 2005, 08:11:20 AM »
The question was which is riskier.

I answered and you avoided the question.

But you did use more words.

If she strikes out on the LPGA and PGA tours, she is of no interest to Nike or anyone else.  Those multi-millions she has in line for herself -- strictly due to her play on the big tours -- vanish.  Continuing results against the top pros impact her far more than play in any amateur event.  

Itīs true that reasons take a bit more space than one-liners.  



You articulate the reasons why Ms. Wie and her handlers will cash in this fall when Ms. Wie will turn professional and sign with Nike.

Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #137 on: August 06, 2005, 09:53:36 AM »
Rg....

"You articulate the reasons why Ms. Wie and her handlers will cash in this fall when Ms. Wie will turn professional and sign with Nike."

And that's a good thing! I hope she makes a lot of money and can afford membership at Sand Hill, National or any golf course she wants to join. I hope she has lots of money so she can send her kids to the finest schools and she can live in the best neighborhood.

This is America and this little girl can JUST DO IT!!!!
No one is above the law. LOCK HIM UP!!!

Brent Hutto

Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #138 on: August 06, 2005, 10:31:36 AM »
It's seems like a very straightforward process: learning the game, getting some opportunities to play at a high level, having success in those opportunities and then eventually being richly rewarded for that success. What's a mystery to me is why some people try to couch it in terms more appropriate to some kind of criminal consipiracy.

I suppose when Tiger Woods came along there were people acting as though he made a deal with the devil to sell his soul in return for endorsement contracts. I don't really recall. Just what is the objection to Michelle Wie? That she gets to play in professional events as a amateur? That her wears funny looking earrings? That she'll likely be rich and famous one day? That her father isn't a very good caddy? That she doesn't do fist pumps and scream goddammit every time a shot misses by five yards?

Craig Van Egmond

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #139 on: August 06, 2005, 02:45:30 PM »
Brett,

   I'm with you on this, I don't understand all the fuss and anonymousity.

   Oh and you forgot about Tiger spitting all the time.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2005, 02:46:21 PM by Craig Edgmand »

Jim Nugent

Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #140 on: August 06, 2005, 03:08:43 PM »
The question was which is riskier.

I answered and you avoided the question.

But you did use more words.

If she strikes out on the LPGA and PGA tours, she is of no interest to Nike or anyone else.  Those multi-millions she has in line for herself -- strictly due to her play on the big tours -- vanish.  Continuing results against the top pros impact her far more than play in any amateur event.  

Itīs true that reasons take a bit more space than one-liners.  



You articulate the reasons why Ms. Wie and her handlers will cash in this fall when Ms. Wie will turn professional and sign with Nike.

Thatīs right.  She will cash in because she has done great on the pro tours (plural).  She risked her financial future by leaping onto that stage.  She risks it every time she plays there: if she does not live up to expectations -- which other than for maybe Annika are the highest of any woman alive -- the fat Wie marketing contract gets a whole lot thinner.  

THAT is where her risk is, marketing and in development of her game.  Not on the minor league of amateur golf.  

Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #141 on: August 06, 2005, 03:18:18 PM »
NBC is showing a tape of this years USGA Junior Girls Amatuer tourney...Morgan Pressel said winning this tournament is "her biggest goal in golf"....somehow I don't hear those words coming out of Wie's mouth...ever.
No one is above the law. LOCK HIM UP!!!

rgkeller

Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #142 on: August 06, 2005, 03:29:25 PM »
>>She will cash in because she has done great on the pro tours (plural).<<

Great for a fifteen year old.

>>She risked her financial future by leaping onto that stage.<<

More accurately she ensured her financial future by playing reasonably well at a young age.

>>She risks it every time she plays there: if she does not live up to expectations -- which other than for maybe Annika are the highest of any woman alive -- the fat Wie marketing contract gets a whole lot thinner.<<

She had no big contract potential before going to the pro tours. It was her modest success there at a very young age that made her marketable BECAUSE of those expectations. The expectations are not a burden, rather the expectations are the source of her value.

The Wies have taken a very calculated and very intelligent path to maximizing Ms. Wie's marketability and her income. The path was intellligent because Ms. Wie is a true prodigy and can really play. It was calculated because the path chosen has avoided direct confrontation with other teenage girls who might - MIGHT - have shown that Ms. Wie is not the only teenage girl with abnormal potential.

We shall see how Ms. Wie's golf game progresses. Certainly, with Nike, IMG, Leadbetter and others on her team, she has every opportunity to become a great golfer and not just a great teenage golfer. What she will not have is the reservoir of experience of a long string of victories at a young age. The others will get their experience on the pro tours. Ms. Wie has passed on experiences that now she will never have.

Brent Hutto

Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #143 on: August 06, 2005, 03:36:54 PM »
What she will not have is the reservoir of experience of a long string of victories at a young age. The others will get their experience on the pro tours. Ms. Wie has passed on experiences that now she will never have.

It depends on whether you think playing against the best players in the world on national television "at a young age" or winning junior tournaments "at a young age" is better experience. I doubt very much that as a 20-year-old playing in her fifteenth or twentieth professional major she will be at any disadvantage not being able to recall winning multiple US Girls Junior championships.

rgkeller

Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #144 on: August 06, 2005, 04:59:20 PM »
"It depends on whether you think playing against the best players in the world on national television "at a young age" or winning junior tournaments "at a young age" is better experience."

No, it does not depend on what I think or what you think. It only matters how Ms. Wie reacts versus how the others react to their early chances at winning.

Joe Hancock

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:The Wie Marketing Plan
« Reply #145 on: August 06, 2005, 06:49:27 PM »
Brett,

   I'm with you on this, I don't understand all the fuss and anonymousity.

Craig,

Bear with me on this....is "anonymousity" something to do with an angry rodent who doesn't want anyone to know about it? ;D

I know, another poor attempt to bring levity to an otherwise entertaining thread. I'm hoping it kills it, though.

Joe
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