Tom,
I'm not offended by your disagreeing with me. If I'm getting hot under the collar, it's because I'm not expressing myself clearly...as perhaps expressed by the following response of yours:
I just happen not to agree with the general line of your thinking that you (or let's say most people) can glean that much about a course due to a particular champion from yesteryear or many decades ago that they have never seen or seen play and consequently know little about.
It's PRECISELY my contention that you can't glean much about a course from the people who have won golf tournaments at it. Matt's original contention is that great courses produce great champions. My rebuttal is that great courses can produce mediocre champions, just that mediocre courses can produce great champions...and that the laws of probability are such that any given course's list of champions is too short to tell us anything about the course's quality. To prove that thesis (quickly, for I don't wish to gain a doctorate from my contributions to this website, nice though the thought of such a degree sounds!) , I've been trying to place certain champion golfers in their historical context of greatness.
I say that in a general sense though since I've never even met you and you just may be someone who has an unusual facility to somehow intuit those things. And I think I remember that you are a Harvard man, right, and many of the Harvard men I've known are very bright and the rest of the Harvard men I've known who aren't all that bright still think they are anyway.
And furthermore if you're trying to tell me that you can somehow analyze lists, courses and statistics and tell more about the golfers that Snead spent a career playing against than he can, then I've got to tell you Darren that I really do think you're wrong about that and more than a little arrogant to even think it. But I still don't take offense--it's just your opinion and that's fine by me!
All I offered to do better than Snead is place the champion golfers of history into their historical context from a statistical perspective. Maybe I can't, but my historical knowledge and analytical prowess will stand me in very good stead when attempting the task, and my very distance from many of the golfers involved is likely to make me a more dispassionate judge of historical virtue than Snead is. (Similarly, I trust the judgments of your average sabrematician far more than the Veteran's Committee in determining which major league ballplayers actually belong in Cooperstown, because they use reasoning techniques untainted by subjective biases. I grant that your mileage may vary....)
Matt,
Let's not forget that just because the top player in the world at that particular time did not win they often placed very near the top in second, third and so forth.
Shall I go back and tell you everyone who finished second at the Opens of St. Andrews? (Gotta love that 1995 Open, with a Top 4 of Daly, Rocca, Steven Bottomley and Mark Brooks.) Or the Masters of Augusta? Or the US Opens of Pebble? The pattern will be quite similar to the list of winners: there will be lots of great golfers in the Top 3 and the Top 5, but you'll also get a number of eccentricities. I don't deny that upsets happen in sports - they're what make sports fun for me, in fact. My fundamental point is that with such small sample sizes, it's impossible to tell the difference between a great course upon which a couple of upsets took place and a mediocre course which produced mediocre winners. (Ditto the great course which produced great winners and the mediocre course at which great winners won.)
However, lest you think that I'm in full attack-dog mode, here....
Flip the subject the other way -- if you played the game's biggest events at the Hope Classic or some other birdie rich site does anyone not believe that the door is opened for just about any to tour player with one week of hot putting?
This is a very compelling point. Grant that the USGA would raise the roughs at Indian Wells to 5 inches, of course, and add the pressure of a "major championship" into the equation, and it would be tougher for the average tour pro to win with a hot putting week alone. But you're probably right that a great golf course tests the field in ways that lesser courses don't, and in theory this test should be more difficult for the lesser player to pass. Now, if only someone would write a computer program which allowed you to simulate a major championship at a given course 10,000 times in the blink of an eye, and maybe we could get somewhere!
Cheers,
Darren