[Matthew Hunt]

A 350 yard par 4 followed by a 450 yard par 4 or 2 400 yarders in a row.

This is assuming they are all flat and same with of Fairway ect.

[Kevin_Reilly]

Like consecutive flips of a coin, aren't the holes independent events and need to be judged as such?

[Brian Noser]

For me assuming all things equal all flat no wind etc. I would have to say the 350 then the 450. If you strech that 450 out to 470 or so it becomes a no brainer either way with out streching I am hitting wedges or 9 irons into the green.

[Jason McNamara]

Depends on how far one's average drive travels, or how much one likes hitting longer irons/hybrids.

[Pete Lavallee]

They are of equal difficulty, due to their equal total length.

For example, assume the golfer hits his drive 230 yards. Through his research, Dave Pelz proved that every golfers swing creates a miss percentage which holds true for every club in the bag. The best golfer he charted was Lee Trevino, who's miss percentage was 5.03%; meaning he'd, on average, miss a 100 yard shot by 15 feet and a 200 yard shot by 30 feet. So let's assume this golfer has a 10% miss percentage.
He would have 120 and 220 yard second shots for a total miss distance adding up to 34 yards of putts in example 1. He would have 2 170 yard shots or 34 yards of putts in example 2. Now you can see why course rating so closely parallels overall course distance.

Edited to removed faulty mathematics.

[Phil Benedict]

Pete,

Your Pelz references are great.  A good Pelz reference should be the end of the discussion.  Any attempt to dispute his, and therefore your, conclusion can only be based on muddle-headed subjectivity.

However, I not sure the math is right in the Trevino example.  He'd be 30-feet away from 200 yards, not 60 feet with a 5.03% miss percentage.

[Pete Lavallee]

However, I not sure the math is right in the Trevino example.  He'd be 30-feet away from 200 yards, not 60 feet with a 5.03% miss percentage.

Thare's that fine Mass. education showing through again.

[Chris Cupit]

I think it depends.

The bogey golfer might like the 350 and 450.  The 350 he has a chance for par since he can reach the green.  On the 450 he has little chance for 4 but it should be an easy 5.

With 2 400 yarders, he can't reach either green.  His short game usually sucks so the odds he gets up and down are close to zero.  He makes two 5's.

For the scratch player I think he likes the two 400 yarders--driver and wedge to both which should leave two 8-12 footers for birdie.  The 350 he probably lays up and has another wedge he should hit 8-12 feet or if he tries to get close he has an awkward 75 yard shot that he's not likely to get closer than a full wedge.  But at 450 he may hit a 3-7 iron in and then he's looking at outside 15 feet for sure--outside the Pelz zone so to speak.

(I'm assuming the bogey golfer drives in the 170-200 yard range and the scratch player hits it in the 250-280 range)

[Kyle Harris]

Pete,

Your Pelz references are great.  A good Pelz reference should be the end of the discussion.  Any attempt to dispute his, and therefore your, conclusion can only be based on muddle-headed subjectivity.

However, I not sure the math is right in the Trevino example.  He'd be 30-feet away from 200 yards, not 60 feet with a 5.03% miss percentage.

Dave Pelz, mixing poorly designed experiments and a chaotic system to sell books for 20 years.  

[Kalen Braley]

I think it depends.

The bogey golfer might like the 350 and 450.  The 350 he has a chance for par since he can reach the green.  On the 450 he has little chance for 4 but it should be an easy 5.

With 2 400 yarders, he can't reach either green.  His short game usually sucks so the odds he gets up and down are close to zero.  He makes two 5's.

For the scratch player I think he likes the two 400 yarders--driver and wedge to both which should leave two 8-12 footers for birdie.  The 350 he probably lays up and has another wedge he should hit 8-12 feet or if he tries to get close he has an awkward 75 yard shot that he's not likely to get closer than a full wedge.  But at 450 he may hit a 3-7 iron in and then he's looking at outside 15 feet for sure--outside the Pelz zone so to speak.

(I'm assuming the bogey golfer drives in the 170-200 yard range and the scratch player hits it in the 250-280 range)

I'd have to agree here on this one chris as I tend to fall in that category.  I'd much rather play the odds and have a shot at going 4,5 over those two holes instead of the likely 5,5.  

[ed_getka]

[quote

Dave Pelz, mixing poorly designed experiments and a chaotic system to sell books for 20 years.  

I don't care what Pelz says, I take the pin out of the hole unless I have a screaming downhill chip.

[Kyle Harris]

[quote

Dave Pelz, mixing poorly designed experiments and a chaotic system to sell books for 20 years.  

I don't care what Pelz says, I take the pin out of the hole unless I have a screaming downhill chip.

Ed,

I'm with you there.

[Matthew Hunt]

2. Now you can see why course rating so closely parallels overall course distance.

I think Tightness and Hazards are as just as important

[Phil Benedict]

Pelz flies around in a private jet.  It's just astounding to me how he's leveraged an obscure specialty into such a lucrative career.  I think his insights are generally pretty valid and they are based on real data, but who has the time to do some of the drills he recommends?

[Pete Lavallee]

I think Tightness and Hazards are as just as important

To determine the course rating here in the good old USA, the rating team assigns a number to the hole first based on its' yardage, then modify it due to hazards and the like. So distance is the primary factor while hazards and tightness are secondary.

I too am amazed at the lack of respect Pelz gets here. You have to admit he's collected more data in one week than Kyle's compiled in a lifetime. Now exactly what you do with it is another matter.

[Phil Benedict]

Pete,

You favor the Chargers over the Patriots?  Would you side with the Padres against the Red Sox?

I had dinner in Boston a couple of nights ago and everyone agreed that the Patiots will never receive the love the Red Sox get, despite their success in the last few years.  Do you miss the intensity of major league baseball in the Northeast?

[Pete Lavallee]

Phil,

I have adopted the Chargers, mainly because it was so difficult to follow the Pats in the 80's and 90's if you lived on the West Coast.

Nothing can replace my love for the Red Sox or Celtics, however. A Red Sox, Padres World Series would be win win for me; I'de still root for the Bosox though. I miss the genreal intensity of sports fans period from the Northeast; people out here are too laid back to care that much.

Certainly the Pats were as much the loveable losers as the Red Sox for many years; OJ never would have that 2000 yard season if the Bills didn't play the Pats twice that year. You are quite right though, even if the Pats won ten in a row, they'll never replace the Red Sox.

[Jim Sweeney]

Phil:

I've never heard a Benedict mention love and the Red Sox in the same sentence. Are you all right? Things getting a little quiet on the Street? I think Palm Desert looms in in the not-to-distant future for you. Hang on!

[Kyle Harris]

Pelz flies around in a private jet.  It's just astounding to me how he's leveraged an obscure specialty into such a lucrative career.  I think his insights are generally pretty valid and they are based on real data, but who has the time to do some of the drills he recommends?

Of course the data is valid, it's not like he made it up. I just don't see how he can draw the conclusions he draws in both of his bibles based on the experiments shown.

[Phil Benedict]

Jim,

I played Waterbury last week!.  The super is leaving the pins in this winter.  I might play tomorrow if it doesn't rain.  Palm Springs 6 weeks from tomorrow.

[Cassandra Burns]

As far as I'm concerned, any 400 yard par 4 is a hard hole.  So I'd say two 400s are more difficult than a 350 + 450.

Beyond that, I'd say the 350/450 combo would be more *fun*, which I think is much more important.  They provide variety, the shorter 4 is a better scoring opportunity than any 400, the 450 is hopefully an easy 5 - and it'll be listed as a par 5 for me anyways, so it's a good scoring opportunity too.  (I'd even prefer a 300/400 setup to a 350/350 setup, as far as that goes.)

I also think the hypothetical bogey golfer would prefer the 350/450 as well.  I bet he'd get plenty of birdie opportunities on the 350, and only rarely on the 400s.  Who doesn't want more birdie opportunities?

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