Ben:
Ballyneal cost less than $3 million to build, even with an all-star team of construction guys. At Stone Eagle, the construction budget was more like $10 million, and that didn't include a bunch of landscaping. So, you are comparing apples and oranges in your question. The only way Stone Eagle would become an affordable public course is after bankruptcy, whereas Ballyneal could be an affordable course, if it was a bit closer to a bit more people and had a bit longer playing season.
Like it says on my web site, some of the most acclaimed courses of the last 20 years have been some of the least expensive to build.
Common Ground actually cost considerably more than Ballyneal to build ... it has a much bigger irrigation system, there was some red tape and bureaucracy to deal with, and my shapers make more than they used to. It's a $40 to $50 golf course because the land cost was zero and they are happy to operate out of a temporary clubhouse until the business needs something more than that. I'm sure there is an architect out there who could've done it for even less, but we budgeted to the funds they had raised, and managed to throw in a few holes for the kids' course while staying on the number.
I think Jeff is right in general that it's a hard business to figure out at any level ... just like blackjack, the odds are similar whether the chips on the table are for $2 or $25 or $1000. And our clients might be in an even tougher business than we are.
As for your numbers? I'm sure Jeff B. has a better sense of the totals than I do. The only numbers I know are that both Jack Nicklaus and Tom Fazio each built 175-200 courses in the USA between 1980 and 2008 (and Jack did another 100-125 overseas). I started a bit later than that, but have now churned out 30 courses (25 in the USA) in twenty years. I have no idea of the total number of courses which opened ... at the peak it was 400, but the peak didn't last too long.