Mark, it's not just the cost of Golf that has soared over here. While there will be aficionados who will always seek to do a grand golf tour I believe the main target market falls into different categories. 'Young' people are increasingly taking a 'gap year' and they are no longer heading for Europe (which was always the place of choice for my age group) but to far flung places. Don't believe the B++++++’+ they talk about doing it to learn about new cultures. They go to the Far East and drink beer and watch football on satellite TV - they go because cheap = more time abroad. The alternative is to do like Chris Kane and find a job that allows you to spend a year in St Andrews. I do predict that Golf trips will be shorter in future. The only market that might buck this trend is the wealthy retired - but do they like spending a long time away from home? However with Golf’s demographics and the way the market is going the ‘grey pound’ will become more and more important as visitors.
I think if you are planning a once in a lifetime trip one thing would be irresistible- courses you (and your mates) have heard of, giving you an exceptional experience and bragging rights. (Excepting the diehard architecture fans of course of whom it can be scientifically proven there are less than 1500 worldwide at any one time). Open rota courses are a given but I presume that they have their financial problems solved, in part at least, by a large kickback from the R&A. In future the second tier courses will have to fight against the big organisations who market themselves abroad. E.G. Kingsbarns and the proposed Trump hotel in Scotland, any number of Luxury Hotels in Ireland with a Niclaus/Palmer/Montgomery course – all need the dollar to survive. This will be quite a challenge for them and they will need funds just to keep their profile up unless they are prepared to accept a slide down the pecking order.
So far the only 'classic' course over here that is really run as a business is Wentworth and they won't be getting my money. As far as I can see it's always packed and the West Course charges (I believe) the steepest green fee in GB&I - I think it's now £220. A friend of mine took two clients and a staff member for a day recently. After a long slow round they sat down to a late lunch and it became clear the clients had no intention of finishing their ‘experience’ early. As a driver he had to sit and watch them quaff his Champagne all evening – he was lucky to get away with £1600 for the day. Wentworth does what any successful business does - charges a premium for its USP -history and fame. I’m sure lots of clubs watch them very closely.
As the pressure on inflation for staff wages (the old courses mostly own their land) increases I think the old clubs will have to become more businesslike. So the members will want to maximise revenue for minimum disruption. Add to this increased disposable income means a few wealthy people can afford to have multiple memberships (and GB&I clubs are ridiculously cheap compared to US and other new markets.). As the tone of the membership changes, and more new money comes in, the new members will approve of the move to business like principles.
I see a combination of the following happening.
1
Any renowned course (classic or not) will become more market savvy and will want to hike its prices to attract the ‘top dollar’. (Or Yen or whatever). And further limit availability and access.
2
The discriminating punter will realise that if (s)he wants
- ready access and particularly at weekends.
- Is looking at retiring and having more time in the not too distant future.
- Wants bang for the buck
These people will see the advantages of having county/country membership, particularly while they remain so cheap and available. In the last year I’ve made a few enquiries, Country membership of some of the favourite Scottish courses involve waiting lists of 4-10 years but once in the cost can be as little as £200 pa as long as you don’t live there for more than 3 months. I can see increased demand pushing both of these up.
3
Clubs will need more money and will change how they obtain it. (Mark what you say about the pay off in catering and pro shop revenues is very interesting i.e. if my model is right Green Fees for visitors will have to go up disproportionately.) The priority will be to get it from outside of the core membership who runs the place. Queenwood and the new developments at Archerfield will show these clubs just how much people will pay for the right kind of experience. St Andrews have pioneered market segmentation, where you can get access whne you want if you buy a package from Philip Prowse – I believe someone calculated that if you strip down the package it costs you about £700 for one round on the old course (a bargain compared to being a member of a country club in the snow half of the USA.)
I believe we’ll see new kinds of deals and all kinds of new segments. How much would one of the big city banks pay Royal St Georges for free access on 3 Sunday afternoons a year? A king’s ransom - for minimum disruption at a time when any member present is fast asleep in the library. It will be much harder for the second tier of clubs to get their hands on this kind of money. I can see more courses banding together to give access e.g. a pre booked tour giving a few best times to North Berwick, Prestwick and Western Gailles. (At the moment in high Summer North Berwick reserves early and late times for members so 36 in a day becomes very difficult to plan for visitors.)
It’s the expectation of future high paying clients that leads the Hotels to pay so richly for hosting the Ryder Cup. But these organisations have a head start in providing the commensurate customer service that people expect to go with a high fee (not to mention course conditioning). The course that seeks to appeal to the traditionalist will be walking a difficult path, costs vs. expectations of visitors and members.
It’s only 30 years since you could play TOC next day for a few quid. Extrapolate these trends forward another 30 years and I’ll be celebrating my 75th Birthday on a local muni paying £150 each for the privilege. This market is evolving fast, so get your name down now for your favourite course if you want to play it when you like, at reasonable price, in 10 years time Trump would think twice about the cost of a three week tour to play all the top courses in GB&I.
I welcome the tourists who come and play the new courses they leave access possibilities for us. But I do think the top end (however you define that) will go much higher still in its pricing.
(Glad to have got that off my chest)