How could Pacific Dunes debut at #16?

[Tom_Doak]

If that's where it is, as Matt Ward reports, I'm pretty surprised myself.

As for the naysayers, perhaps I should explain the process of the rankings, since I designed the process 15 years ago.

GOLF Magazine ranks the courses according to the AVERAGE vote they receive from each panelist who has SEEN OR PLAYED the course.  No one would have rated Pacific Dunes based on the pictures.

The problem with ranking by average vote is that if only one panelist had seen Pacific Dunes, and they'd ranked it among the top 10 in the world, it would have a 4.0 average and it would be #1 in the world.  So, years ago we had to establish what constituted a quorum of votes which would make a course eligible.  We decided on ten votes.  But we also designed a loophole into the system so that a course with less than ten votes could get in.  [Otherwise, we felt that several out-of-the-way courses, like Cape Breton Highlands, might never achieve a quorum.]

The loophole is the same one they use to determine a baseball batting champ:  if a player falls ten at-bats shy of the minimum number necessary for the title, but he would have won the title even if he'd gone 0-for-10, then he gets the title.

So, if a course has 7-9 solid votes for the top 100, the computer automatically averages in a few "E" votes [not in the top 200 courses] to get it up to a quorum, and ranks the course on that average.  A couple of courses have qualified for the list that way in the past, including Crystal Downs its first time.

I do know for a fact that at least eight GOLF Magazine panelists got to Pacific Dunes before the deadline.  A couple of them played it when there were only 11 holes and the others were being grassed; the rest got there between January and April and played all 18 in its roughest form.  Those panelists included Ran, Norm Klaparda from Riviera CC, Marvin French from Pumpkin Ridge, Bill Shean from Chicago, and Mike Hurdzan's partner Dana Fry.

I also know that 4-5 more panelists have been there since; I don't know if they figured in a couple of their votes after the deadline.

For Pacific Dunes to rank 16th in the U.S. [or 25 to 30 in the world], the eight panelists would all have had to vote for it among the top 50 courses in the world.  [I doubt anyone put it in their top ten.]

Let the fallout begin.  But note that the only ones criticizing its placing are those who haven't seen it yet.

[TEPaul]

Well exactly, so why bother to question it? Are you questioning it's impressive ranking?

Didn't Crystal Downs first hit the list as something like #59 and then climb swiftly up to something like #9?

Let me ask you something; If you were the editor of Golf Mag (and obviously you hadn't built Pacific Dunes) what would you say about its ranking if you had not seen it? And what would you say if you had seen it?

[Gib_Papazian]

I've played most of the top courses listed. Pac Dunes ought to rate even higher.

And I am not just trying to be nice. . . . we all know me better than that.

[aclayman]

I am curious as to why you designed the rating system. Does a rating directly or indirectly effect the success of GCA's?

[TEPaul]

You bet your ass it does--or at least they all think it does! And the owners probably think it does more than they do. As for the golfing public--well that ain't good either!

"Wow, I just played the 9th ranked course in America!" "Well, what did you think of the architecture?" "Huh, I don't know, what do you mean by that?"

[Mike_Cirba]

Particulars of the "Golf" rating system aside, if Pacific Dunes is really THAT good then two thoughts come to mind...

1) Congratulations to Tom Doak and I can't wait to see what he can do with his own routing at his next course at Stonewall.

2) The fact that I recently decided to forego a trip to Oregon later this year now stings all the more.

As Casey Stengel used to say, "just wait til next year!"

[Casey Stengel]

It was Charlie Dressen that had to say "Wait until next, year!"  Every year.

You could look it up.

[John_McMillan]

Tom,

There's another statistical factor at work - economists call it "selection bias" - that accounts for the phenomonon of courses debuting high in rankings then falling (Shoal Creek, Kiawah Island, Shadow Creek).  

Bandon Oregon is a difficult place to get to, so those that have played the course in its first few months have made some effort to get there and see it.  Golfers who would have known about the course, and been willing to buy a plane ticket to Portland, then rent a car for the drive to Bandon are likely to be predisposed to having a favorable impression of the course.  The average rating of the course is not from golfers in the general population, but from those who have made the "pilgramage" to Bandon.  As an analogy, if I sat in Bethlehem on Christmas morning and took a poll, I would find the world was composed of a surprisingly large percentage of Christians.  

The interesting numbers to watch for Pacific Dunes will be the ratings in the next 10 years.  If it keeps its rating, it will be because it has "converted" the masses to its ideals of design.  

[Joel_Stewart]

Tom:
Pretty good explanation of the voting process for Golf Magazine.  

I don't think the masses understand that Golf Magazine panelists only vote either A - B or C.  An A means top 10 in a catagory (World or US) and they can only vote for 10 courses with an A.  If they want to give an A for a new course (example- Pacific Dunes) they have to drop one from their previous ballot to a B.  B is 11-50 and C is 51 to 100.  A panelist does have some latitude in voting A+ or A- also.  I like this concept.  The other interesting thing about Golf Magazine is that they don't have any criteria or catagories to judge.  Just give the course one-single letter grade - period.

[David Wigler]

John,

At least for me, the destination ranking tends to be lower.  I fall victim to the "Kid in a candy store" syndrome and more frequently than not end up disappointed and overly critical.  Places like La Costa, and Wild Dunes that I had heard so much about and decided to travel to bore and extra burden when I found the courses so disappointing.  Conversely, when I stumble upon a course like Whispering Pines or work in a course as part of a business trip that had me in the area anyway like Barona Creek, it does not have to bear the burden of justifying the trip.  I have not yet played Pacific Dunes but Bandon Dunes was one of the very few courses in the country that had a whole trip built upon playing it and still managed to exceed every one of my expectations.