[John_McMillan]

I think that wind conditions - as they apply to both golf design and strategy - is one of the less understood areas.  I've been developing some thoughts, and after some further polishing, may post some deeper analysis.  A quick summary is that current understanding about wind revolves around its direction and strength - which ignores the important aspects of shifts and lulls.  As any sailor can tell you, these are predictable, and have characteristics which vary with geographic features.  For scientific reasons, there is a big difference between a 10 mph wind on Long Island (a cooled wind, moving over a body of water), and a 10 mph wind in Kansas (a gradiant wind).  In terms of golf strategy, there is a big difference between playing the 12'th at Augusta, where a current wind is likely to change at any moment (and knock a shot into Rae's creek), and the 17'th at Kiawah Island (where the wind blows more consistently).  

What sailors have known for a long time, and golfers have yet to figure out, is that wind shifts and changes are consistent and predictable.  About the only real golfing insight I have seen in this area is from Beh Hogan, who said when playing the 12'th at Augusta, he always waited for the wind to change before playing his shot.  This acknowledges that wind shifts have a specific periodicity, and that by waiting for the change, another is not likely to follow quickly.

[Rich_Goodale]

John

You may be right regarding the predictability of wind shifts on a macro basis (i.e. a sailor entering the "horse latitudes" will know not to expect hte same sort of conditions as he or she would if entering the "roaring 40's"  However, on a micro basis, i.e. for an indiivudal sailor in a specifiic location on a specific day, wind shifts are anything but predictable, or at least that was the case 40 years ago when I did a lot of racing on Long Island Sound with and against some extremely good sailors.  Perhaps technology has changed this fact.  Is it so?

I'm also struggling to see the relevance of this concept to golf, except perhaps to help one choose the most propitious tee time for their game.  Am I missing something?

Cheers

Rich

[John_McMillan]

Rich -

Perhaps that's why you never made tactician on an America's cup crew  

Yes - they are predictable on what you call a "micro" level.  There have been scientific advances in the last 40 years, but I think to a great degree, they provided a formalization for what a lot of sailors had been previously doing by intuition.  A good scientific description as it applies to sailing is Frank Bethwaite's "High Performance Sailing."  

As far as the predictability, Bethwaite gives an example from his experience as a pilot -

"In the late 1940s a New Zealand airline ran a tenuous service across the Southern Pacific.  One morning in Papeete, Tahiti, I awakened before dawn for flight preparation.  The weather had turned foul overnight.  It was monsoonal with a strong westerly wind (directly onshore) and heavy continuous rain ... As I dressed, the rain eased briefly.  I slipped outside and noticed in the half-light that while there were still heavy clouds to the north, the wind had eased and veered to the north-west.  Two minutes later the rain was thundering down again and the wind was strong and back in the west.  I noted the time from habit.  At breakfast, the same interval repeated.  The heavy rain and the strong westerly eased but only for one or two minutes.  The interval had been 43 minutes.  I spoke with my first officer and my flight engineer.  At the met. briefing at the weather office, the three of us and the forecaster awainted the next clearence.  It came, right on the forty three minute interval.  The forecaster regarded the idea of rythm as ridiculous.  I left him to his belief.  At Customs, all the civil authorities assumed that I would cancel in the appalling weather ... Another of the tiny clearences occurred, and on time.  Nobody else seemed to notice it.  We started engines, slipped moorings, and taxied south ... The west wind was way above the cross-wind limit for take-off ... as we reached the southern end of the cleared channel ... the rain cleared briefly, and the wind eased and veered momentariliy north-west.  I pushed the throttles open and ... lifted clear of the water and airborn and away."

As an illustration of the science of wind changes and shifts, crouch level with a cup of coffee, and blow across it.  What results are ribbons of waves on top of the coffee.  The same thing happens when less dense air higher in the atmosphere moves across more dense air closer to the earth's surface - with the waves representing periods of higher and lower wind speeds.  The specific pattern of waves on the coffee is the same as a periodicity to higher and lower wind speeds.  

[Rich_Goodale]

John

One of the guys I sailed with regularly in those days was the navigator for Bill Ficker when he won the America's Cup.  He couldn't read the wind shifts on LIS any better than I could!

Cheers

Rich

[John_McMillan]

Rich -

Until about 1980, the US retained the America's cup through a large advantage in sail and hull technology - maybe they didn't need the best tactician.  I will guaranted that today there is much effort spent in studying race areas to chart and predict changes in wind velocity and direction.

From a golfing point of view - say you were faced with a 175 yard shot to a Redan green, into a 15 mph headwind.  Would you be interested to know that in 20 seconds, it was going to change into a 5 mph cross-wind, say from left-to-right, was going to remain that way for another 45 seconds, then shift back to the 15 mph headwind?  One thing's for sure - you wouldn't start your swing 19 seconds from now - which is the Hogan advice that he always waited until just after the wind changed before playing a shot to the 12'th at Augusta.

[Jeff_Brauer]

John,

You've given Sergio Garcia a new reason to delay his swing.

[Rich_Goodale]

John

The yacht club I grew up at not only had my next door neighbor and future America's Cup navigator, but also 2 winning America's Cup skippers (Bob Bavier and Bus Mosbacher) and several other sailors who used to beat those two regularly in club races!  In those days, finishing in the top 3 of the Noroton Yacht Club annual Lightning championship was far more difficult than beating some hapless Brit 4-0 in the Ameirca's Cup.  Partly due to technology, for sure, but these guys knew Long Island Sound like the back of their hands.

Given this, I am astounded that what you say in your last post is possible, although I do not at all doubt what you say as it has been a very very long time since I last lay flat on the becalmed bow of a Lightning and tried to look out over the waters outside Larchmont harbor and for subtle changes in the ripple patters of the waves........

However, like Jeff, I very much hope that what you say is NOT true, although if it is, it might force Sergio to hit his shots in under 20 seconds to take advantage of that upcoming wind shift...........

[Patrick_Mucci]

Rich Goodale,

I think a course Like Shinnecock is a perfect example of a course designed for the prevailing wind.

NGLA has that element as well.

Trade or prevailing winds are usually a luxury afforded to special sites.

Even GCGC has a mild prevailing wind.

Some prevailing winds might be 80-95 % of the time,
others might be 51 % of the time.

[Rich_Goodale]

Patrick

When we played Shinnecock the 18th was into the wind.  Was that the "prevailing" one?  If so, was it that way when Pavin hit his famous shot?  If so, he's a longer hitter than I imagined!

PS--there are places on this planet where the wind can blow from more than 2 directions.  In those places, the "prevailing" wind may occur only a 1/3 of the time, or even less frequently.

[Patrick_Mucci]

Rich Goodale,

One of the many neat things about Newport CC, and other courses, is the prevailing wind in the morning, and the changed prevailing wind in the afternoon.  Two different courses in one day, making 36 a must.  How lucky are those members ??

[Matt_Ward]

Rich:

In answering your question, I was there at greenside during Pavin's famous approach to 18 at SH. The wind was blowing from right to left out of the southwest (the prevailing wind during summer months) thereby assisting him in working the ball towards the hole.

Pat is 100 percent correct in that SH usually features a predictable (should I dare say that) wind on most days during th eplaying season. That can change obviously.

Both #9 and #18 head in relatively the same directions. The problem becomes when the wind comes from the northeast -- the storm wind as in the first round in ther 1986 Open at SH. As you may recall the leading score for the first round was even-par 70 -- believe by Bob Tway.

What people probably don't remember about the '95 Championship was that rain fell for the practice rounds almost continously and then all of sudden dry weather took hold from the first round through to the conclusion. It's probably fair to say that without the extremely dry conditons the likelihood of Pavin reaching the winner's circle would have been most difficult. Alas -- that did not happen, much to the regret of Greg Norman.

[John_McMillan]

Patrick M -

Much like eskimos whose language describes many different types of snow, sailors describe different types of wind.  What seems on this board to be a "prevailing" wind is probably more accurately described as a gradient wind - produced by the heating of air near the earth's equator and movement towards the poles, and complicated by the rotation of the earth.  (These are also called trade winds, if they're over a major body of water).  

Things get more interesting on pieces of land located close to bodies of water.  In warm seasons, the land heats up more than the water, inducing another source of air movement.  In these cases, the orientation of the gradient wind and the coastline produces different types of patterns.  I suspect this is the case at the example you cite at Newport CC - the gradient wind can blow in one direction in the morning, the sea breeze  in a different direction in the afternoon.  Since these patterns are fairly consistent and predictable, I'm not sure I'd use the label "prevailing" to refer to either of them - but their combination does make golf interesting.

[Rich_Goodale]

John

I mentioned in an earlier post on this thread (before I got sidetracked into trying to remember my sailing days ) that winds in GBI (particularly Dornoch) tend to shift 180 degrees with the changes in the tides.  Does this fit with your knowledge and understanding of gradients, etc.

Patrick

What is really lucky at Dornoch (and I would suspect Newport) is going out with the wind, catching the tide change at the 9th, and then riding the wind back on the way in.  Of course, the opposite can occur too........

[GeoffreyC]

Matt

I was at Shinnecock on Monday and Tuesday of the Open in the wet and mist.  On Tuesday I followed Cory Pavin for a while and he got to #12 and hit two good shots that left him well short of the green. I couldn't take seeing this and waited at 12 for a couple of groups and saw Norman and Tiger playing together.  Norman needed 3 wood to reach the very front of the green and Tiger hit a long iron.  I distinctly remember telling my brother and another friend that this was simply TOO MUCH golf course for Cory.

We saw the course change dramatically on Thrusday to Sunday.  Next to my personal experience playing in Scotland and Ireland, it was the best lesson I had about just how weather affects scoring and changes the RELATIVE ability of different players do well.  Shouldn't the PGA and USGA learn that lesson when they lengthen courses, soften greens etc.  They are non-randomly stacking the deck in favor of certain players and styles of play.

[John_McMillan]

Rich -

I'm not aware of anything which would link tides and winds.  What is the periodicity of the wind changes and tides at Dornoch?  If the tides change in the afternoons, the wind changes may be tied to changes in sea breezes (the warming of air over the land).

[Peter Goss]

John McMillan - I agree that wind conditions are one of the lesser understood areas in strategic golf architecture -  certainly not well documented. I hoped this thread may produce intelligent and confronting debate about the thought processes of some professionals and enthusiasts in the field of golf architecture in accounting for a prevailing wind yet allowing the design to remain interesting, thought-provoking and fair if the wind changed. I look forward to you developing your thoughts on wind and design.
Jeff Brauer- thank you for your most interesting account of dealing with wind in design particularly about the green. You didn't mention diagonal hazards - I thought they would be ideal in the reverse wind days - or on courses such as Newport.
I think your comment on wide fairways is particulaly pertinent and maybe that is part of the success of courses such as StA Old course where on some holes you may choose one of 4 different routes to the hole depending on the wind direction. It also seems to have bunkers that occasionally "come into play" with varying winds. Greg Norman may remember such a bunker on the 18th at Royal Troon. Do golf course architects still occasionally place such bunkers or other hazards to purposefully come into strategic play on occasional opposite wind days?

[Patrick Mucci Jr]

Rich Goodale,

For years it puzzled me how the McBride boys, good golfers though they were,  managed to post such consistently good scores qualifying at the NGLA singles tournament every year.

Then I figured it out.

I used to get out to NGLA later in the day, teeing off at about
2:00 or so.

I learned that by teeing off at about 8:00 am, you reached the tenth tee at about the same time the wind turned, so you played out with the wind, and then back in with the wind, a nice combination if you can get it.

Now, if I can, I get out the night before, and try to tee off at
8:00 am or so.

My learning curve has picked up pace too.

[Rich_Goodale]

Patrick

The good and smart players used to do that at the Carnegie Shield in Dornoch, too.  There, at that time of year (early August) the early morning times most often guaranteed calm conditions.  About 5 years ago, so many people had figured this out, and the scramble for dew sweeping spots had become so fierce that the club went to a formulaic approach to the assignment of tee times which took away this advantage.

John

Thakns again.  The tide-influenced(?)wind shifts that I've expereince at RDGC tend to be around noon, at the time of year that I have most often been there (mid-July to mid-Aug).  The times for the tides change daily,there, as they do in most places in the world.

PS--do you REALLY think it is possible to predict wind shifts for the next 20 seconds?  It sounds ridiculous to me, but I'm pretty gullible at times, and you sound VERY convincing........

[John_McMillan]

Rich -

Sounds like what's going on at Dornoch (and probably at NGLA also), is the replacement of the gradient wind with a sea breeze, the later of which is timed to the building of heat differentials between land and water (and thus happen in the afternoon, after the land has had time to "heat up).  

Re the predictablitity -

Potentially, yes, shifts of that periodicity are predictable.  However, much depends on the type of wind - determined by the individual location.  In addition to gradient winds and sea breezes, there are also funneling winds - created by geographic features other than a flat ocean.  The wind you actually feel on your face is a combination of all of these types of wind.  The combination of these is different in Long Island, NY and Dornoch Scotland.  There is a periodicity and pattern to wind changes - and if you measure one, it's usually going to repeat itself.  If that periodicity is 20 seconds, then  you can predict at that interval.

[Rich_Goodale]

John

I'm impressed!

Do you think that the USGA/R&A would allow one to carry an anemometer (or whatver equipment you might need to conduct your prediction calculations) in his or her bag?

Cheers

Rich

[Dan Kelly]

You wind freaks (no offense intended, I assure you! I'm a nae-wind/nae-golf type, myself -- though you can nae the rain any time and you'll find me nae naesayer!) should check out the Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the United States, at http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/atlas_index.html .

I don't think it'll tell what the wind will be 20 seconds from now -- but I haven't looked at every link.

{{Edited to put space between html and the period. It works now.}}

[John_McMillan]

Rich -

Carrying an aneometer while playing is a breach of rule 14-3.  However, there is no rule against using one prior to a round to figure out the general patterns of wind at a course.  As an alternative, a sailing club located near a course has probably at some time recorded a wind trace which would suggest general patterns at the golf course.

Dan -

I get a "404 / Page not found" error at your link.

[Dan Kelly]

John -- Try http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps.html#3-3

[Rich_Goodale]

Thanks John

I should have read my rule book...... (this is the "What a stupid I am!" face).  BTW, what is this "Page 404?"  I get this error message too, from time to time.  Is it like "Area 51" in Nevada?

[John_McMillan]

Rich -

"404" is the error code when a browser cannot find the url entered.

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