I think Sean, JC, Jason and Jim all have viable ideas, and it is very market and region dependent based on the regional economy.
But, Jim you did say:
Let’s say you’re a course operator faced with the uncertain economic future that is sweeping through the US and the Mid-West in particular. Manufacturing companies, the backbone of all economic activity for the last 60 years, are either, closing, moving or reinventing themselves and a course operator has to make it to the end of that economic transition tunnel. What would be your recession/depression playbook?
This is specific to a region and particular type of economy and demographic. It is a semi-blue collar sort of economy that was once good, and folks had jobs, leisure time, and weren't working day and night or looking for anything to tide them over and no discretionary income to spend on golf. Many of those folks are actually fleeing the area. When and what will bring THAT SCENE BACK? You as an operator can try many things described above. But, at the end of the day you might have to face the prospect that the whole scene and whole economic situation of jobs and prosperity are not coming back in the forseeable future as it relates to that "manufacturing back bone of that economy for the last 60 years". That simply isn't a scenario that you can as an operator tweak here or there and hold on til it gets better, UNLESS A SEA CHANGE OCCURS THAT CAUSED THE PROCESS TO CHANGE FUNDAMENTALLY. Jim, you may not like that as politics, we always have great discussions on that. But the demographic can't just come back without the proper stimulus. A lot of people banked on free trade and much lower taxes as the cure all for the last 8 years. Where has that led? Those so-called benefits of that methodology is now exhausted.
Is your demographic better off and have enough leisure time and discretionary income? Are they even soundly employed, with any sense of security?
Golf comes after feelings of security within the people. No social security and safety nets, no good jobs, wage disparities and ever widening shifts of wealth to top 1% coming out of your demographic (the middle class recreational guy), and guess what? No structural change and your recreational facility that runs on discretionary income that comes with the econmomy that was for 60 years and now isn't, and the course operator is whistling past the graveyard with small fixes in marketting.
So, in a way I can go along with Jim K, if you believe the set back is short term and will come back and incomes and discretionary spending will again rise due to some miraculous shift to a new high tech prosperous economy and fiscal tweaking with national accounting slide of hands. Then I'd say maintain your pricing, add in the most givaways and incentives you can, so that the expectation that comes with lower prices in hard times won't be killed when you raise them again and possibly create bad will.
But, if you decide the economic situation is structurally long term fried, and no prospects to shift a large demographic back to a renewed economy and productive environment for the large middle class who are your customers; then punt. Give it up, move on and try to reorient yourself in career and location, sell the course or land if you can come out with cap gains or profit, and avoid the death of a 1000 slices.
Taxes are as low as we've ever seen and seems to be no stimulus nor incentive to re-invest profits of anyone benefiting in the high end from the joy times that have been created in that strata's hoarding and house flipping and money sheltering and such. Manufacturing is gone to the 3rd world, and all those traditional fiscal conservative fixes since Reaganomics have been exhausted.
Why is golf in Sweden on the upswing?