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Tom Zeni

The Open Weather At Oakmont....
« on: June 08, 2007, 05:55:24 PM »
Hey, don't put the kibosh on the Crazy 8 Ball. Yes, it's the one that has predicted that Tiger will never again win a major with his current swing.

However, as to it's weather predictions, there were hellish downpours at Oakmont in '73, in '83, and in '94.  The Crazy 8 Ball, notes a trend here.  The 8 Ball also notes a trend of high temps of +90*  that accompany the U.S. Open at Oakmont. With those temps, on that plateau, atmospheric stabilization is iffy at best. Those temps and accommpaning window shaking electrical storms are currently here today (Friday,) and will likely be hovering over Oakmont next week at this time.
 
However, to the delight of golf fans everywhere, the Crazy 8 Ball does see a precip clear weekend with rain most likely in the early rounds. It's best conjuring says Friday and into Saturday morning. So look for the lowest scores of the Open on Saturday, and somewhat drier conditions on Sunday.

The 8 Ball also reminds you to not go looking way over the watermark of "God Almighty Par" for a final score. In fact, if conditions become benign due to moisture, one or two under might be the number.
 
Remember, you heard it from the Crazy 8 Ball first.
 
Oh, check out the story on the hotel prices.
 http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07158/792244-382.stm
« Last Edit: June 08, 2007, 05:57:40 PM by Tom Zeni »

nandoal

Re:The Open Weather At Oakmont....
« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2007, 09:40:14 PM »
I live two streets away from Oakmont, and It rained buckets this evening as I was spending my kids college fund in the merchandise tent. At least an inch of rain in less than an hour.  But the rest of the week looks good I think.  Lowish temps too.

paul cowley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:The Open Weather At Oakmont....
« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2007, 09:42:10 PM »
Looks favorable for play..... :)
paul cowley...golf course architect/asgca

Adam Clayman

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:The Open Weather At Oakmont....
« Reply #3 on: June 08, 2007, 11:43:42 PM »
Here's the current ten day forecast for Pittsburgh
from weather.com
Quote
Thu
Jun 14  Partly Cloudy
 84°/64° 10%  
  84°F
 
Fri
Jun 15  Scattered T-Storms
 81°/65° 40%  
  81°F


Sat
Jun 16  Scattered T-Storms
 79°/66° 30%  
  79°F
 
Sun
Jun 17  Scattered T-Storms
 82°/64° 40%  
  82°F
 
"It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing your whole life." - Mickey Mantle

Jay Flemma

Re:The Open Weather At Oakmont....
« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2007, 08:22:25 PM »
"A storm out of the pages of the Last Judgment"...as Art Spander put it...ripped down part of the press tent.

That sunday ***insert choir signing ave marias*** Miller shot 63.

If it rains...TIGER SETS A RECORD OF SOME SORT.

TEPaul

Re:The Open Weather At Oakmont....
« Reply #5 on: June 09, 2007, 08:31:37 PM »
Oakmont has worked SOOO hard for the last few year to establish some really cool firm and fast "through the green" and on the greens, GOD PLEASE don't let weather take it all out at the last minute!!!

TEPaul

Re:The Open Weather At Oakmont....
« Reply #6 on: June 09, 2007, 08:34:35 PM »
Bob Ford was apparently asked what he thought would win the US Open and he responded there could be a wet score and a dry score. When he was asked what either might be he said he didn't know but whatever it was Tiger would shoot it.

Tom Zeni

Re:The Open Weather At Oakmont....
« Reply #7 on: June 09, 2007, 08:53:14 PM »
If Oakmont is wet, and the likely-hood decreases as the temps stabilize into the low 80's*, we'll find that Tiger is always the odds on favorite to go low, as was Palmer and Nicklaus in their day. However, we do have the likes of Zach Johnson, Jim Furyk, and a few others that can go low on a moisture filled day. A 63 kinda low? Never. But low nonetheless.

BTW, the Crazy 8 Ball still says Friday into Saturday morning will be the iffy days.

George Pazin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:The Open Weather At Oakmont....
« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2007, 06:44:47 PM »
So far weather looks good through Friday. Chance of thunderstorms tomorrow and Wednesday, but I'm not buying it. :)
Big drivers and hot balls are the product of golf course design that rewards the hit one far then hit one high strategy.  Shinny showed everyone how to take care of this whole technology dilemma. - Pat Brockwell, 6/24/04

Matt_Ward

Re:The Open Weather At Oakmont....
« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2007, 08:19:13 PM »
This year's weather will have to go a loooooooooooong ways to be the equivalent of the last two events played at Oakmont. The '83 championship was stormy and featured some serious duty lightning.

The '94 event was as hot / humid as I have ever encountered in covering major events. Simply beyond compare -- why Monty would wear black during one of the four rounds still escapes me.

Dan Herrmann

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:The Open Weather At Oakmont....
« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2007, 08:43:31 PM »
Here's the latest NWS forcast discussion, where you can see what the forecasters are thinking:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED TONIGHT ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY, THEN INCREASE SOME IN COVERAGE CLOSER TO THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SOUTHWARD OFF
THE EAST COAST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO CAUSE SCATTERED LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS THE LATEST GFS
MODEL RUN SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE BLOCKING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
FROM THE WEST. ONLY REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE
ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN MAY CAUSE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW THE MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS CAN RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD.
THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A FRONTAL-TYPE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME, HAVE
INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES AS INDICATED BY HPC AND GFS MOS VALUES.

&&

Tom Zeni

Re:The Open Weather At Oakmont....
« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2007, 09:33:22 PM »
The 8 Ball has decifered that analysis to read:

Thursday and Thursday Night
  Mostly cloudy. Highs around 80. Lows in the upper 50s.
 
Friday through Saturday
  Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. Lows in the upper 50s.  

Saturday Night through Monday
  Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 80s.

Michael Blake

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:The Open Weather At Oakmont....
« Reply #12 on: June 12, 2007, 11:16:19 AM »
in my best Chico and the Man voice:

"LOOKING GOOOOOD!"



Today
Jun 12  Partly Cloudy
 84°/62° 10%  
 9 Very Good
 
Carry an Extra Towel
 
Wed
Jun 13  Mostly Sunny
 82°/62° 10%  
 9 Very Good
 
 
 
Thu
Jun 14  Partly Cloudy
 82°/59° 10%  
 9 Very Good
 
 
 
Fri
Jun 15  Partly Cloudy
 80°/59° 10%  
 9 Very Good
 
Carry an Extra Towel
 
Sat
Jun 16  Partly Cloudy
 82°/65° 10%  
 9 Very Good
 
 
 
Sun
Jun 17  Mostly Sunny
 87°/65° 10%  
 8 Very Good
 

Dan Kelly

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:The Open Weather At Oakmont....
« Reply #13 on: June 12, 2007, 11:22:50 AM »
Oakmont has worked SOOO hard for the last few year to establish some really cool firm and fast "through the green" and on the greens, GOD PLEASE don't let weather take it all out at the last minute!!!

26,600 posts, and I'd never realized you were a religious man.

Yes, I know: There are no atheists in Church Pews.
"There's no money in doing less." -- Joe Hancock, 11/25/2010
"Rankings are silly and subjective..." -- Tom Doak, 3/12/2016

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