A lot of replies, many asking me questions or responding to me, so I apologize again for how I tend to "multi-quote." It's just how I have always used forums, and I think it beats posting more frequently to respond to things individually. I've tried to limit it to some main points.
Do you have any stats around the clubs chosen from the tee that represent driving stats?
The PGA Tour chooses holes on which the vast majority of players hit driver. And PGA Tour players hit more drivers than ever these days, so it's not too difficult. But they pick long par fives or par fours where players are almost certainly hitting drivers.
But it seems to me that guys are hitting it much longer than they did 10 years ago.
Unfortunately, how something "seems" to you is not a fact nor a convincing argument.
I think the reason the average drive hasn't gone up much is because guys are hitting less club off the tee and bringing their average down. There is another stat that may prove this to be correct; % of drives over 300 yards.
Not on the measured holes. Do the longer players occasionally hit 3W on these holes? Sometimes (still rarely). But the median player basically doesn't. They're hitting driver more often. They understand now more than ever the added value of being a few yards closer to the green than they can get with their 3W.
For average driving distance, Erik brought up median so lets look at 63rd place. In 2017, 63rd place hit his drive over 300 yards 46% of the time. This compares to only 36% of the time in 2007.
Median is 95th as there were 190 qualifying players. Jason Dufner is 95th with 35.14%.
I could make the case that these stats, combined with driving distance, speak to the idea that players are hitting more drivers than ever, and hit 3W more frequently in 2007 than they do now. That also backs up the experience I have in working with some of the guys on Tour, or talking with the instructors of other guys. They understand more now than ever the value of getting closer to the hole.
The reality is more complicated than that. In 2007, we were in the middle of the prime Tiger Era, when he was so feared that PGA Tour golf was still easy to see as a two-class system: Tiger and everyone else. The "everyone else" consisted largely of entrenched players who were still older and still playing more of a control-based brand of golf.
Exactly. The modern player is more aware than ever of the value of hitting it far.
Once again, we're seeing the golf ball blamed for a trend in elite golf on which the ball has had little to no effect. So I'll repeat the point I've been making: if you look at the evidence of what has gone on in the last decade or so in golf technology, the case for rollback and/or bifurcation just isn't that strong.
It's not a strong case, I agree. We get arguments like how it "seems" to people, not very many actual facts.
But Tim: you and Erik keep referencing 'the last 10 years', as if that's the key point in the argument. But is it, really? (I mean, what's special about the last 10 years as opposed to, say, the last 20?)
It's just the point in time I chose. Going back to 1907 seems a bit ridiculous, right? 1917, 1927… 1937… all kinda silly, right? So any point chosen is somewhat arbitrary. In 2007, my memory is that those calling for a roll-back were much smaller in number… yet that number has grown since then. Yet players aren't hitting it farther than 2007.
Practically speaking, I like 2007 over 1997 because the "genie" of solid balls was out of the bottle. I think putting it back in would prove nearly impossible. So, I pick a time year after about 2002, and a decade is a nice round number.
Maybe they have - though clearly not before an almost 8,000 yard course was designed and built and hosted a US Open, and not before TW designed and built a 7500+ yard private course solely for members play.
What percentage of golfers need to play the 7500+ tees at either of the courses to get a good challenge?
Which is to say: the dramatic distance gains over the last 20 years (perhaps, I'd guess, equal to or greater than all the gains achieved in the 50-60 years before that combined) have already impacted/influenced both the professional and amateur games
I don't really agree that it's affected "the amateur game." One set of tees at a TW course that virtually nobody will play doesn't mean much. Avalon Lakes in Ohio is 7551 yards, used to host an LPGA Tour stop (not from 7551!)… and almost nobody plays those tees, ever. Our conference championship was at about 6700 yards.
and will continue to do so.
If they want to spend their money doing that, what's it to us? 90%+ of the golfing public is probably served with 6500 yards or less.
Tim said it better a few times already: if a club tries to "keep up with the Woodses," that's their business.
Or do we instead listen to golfer-architects like Tiger and Jack when they say that the distance the pros are currently hitting it is (negatively) influencing all levels of the game by fostering the design/re-design of golf courses that are too long and too expensive to maintain and that require too much time to walk/play and too many inputs?
Who anointed either of those guys the spokesman for "all levels of the game"? Who says Tiger knows what play is like at "all levels of the game." His exposure to "all levels" might be limited to roughly 15 pro-am rounds with rich CEOs per year. You likely give their opinions more weight because they agree with yours.
I will take your lack of an answer to mean you do agree that the architects who designed the courses the PGA Tour play on did not intend for them to have it quite so easy!
I didn't answer because I don't really care about the 0.001% of the golfers. But if you need an answer… how about Oakmont? The average U.S. Open contestant doesn't hit wedges into half of the par fours there, even though several of the holes were designed to be short: 10, 2, 14, 17. And I didn't even have to leave my state… just a quick drive down I-79.
As the NRA would say they are not better, just better armed!
No, the game's best have gotten better. It's foolish to think otherwise. In every other sport, athletes have gotten bigger, faster, stronger. The same is true in golf.
The notion that distance gains have hit a ceiling because some dubious statistic hints at that through the last decade is simply naive at best.
Funny how the stat is great when it supports your arguments, but "dubious" when it does not. It's a measure of driving distance. It's a pretty good stat.
One could have said distance gains had been maximised ten years after the introduction of the Haskell, only to see the entire game change later. Erik and Tim's position could have been adopted some time between 1970 & 1990 - again erroneously.
No. They couldn't have.
There was no ODS when the Haskell was around. There were no limits on CoR in 1970. It didn't take much imagination - at all - to imagine that longer, lighter drivers could hit the ball farther. That optimizing launch conditions could launch the ball further. That a PGA Tour pro playing a Pinnacle could launch the ball further. Actually, what did the Long Drivers hit back then? They weren't balatas.
Rocky Thompson used, what, a 50" driver, right?
Conditions are different now. We understand how to maximize launch conditions. We have the ODS and CoR rules. We have a rule governing the length of clubs. Materials will probably get a bit lighter (but lighter clubs lead to tougher to control clubs, so the tradeoff likely won't wander too far from where we are now - the lightweight drivers aren't at all popular on the PGA Tour). But we can't do much more to optimize launch conditions. Driver faces can't get bigger. The ball can't travel faster.
Will we look back in hindsight and say "oh man we missed that?" Maybe. But I'd suggest not, because the conditions are not at all the same as they were in 1910, 1940, 1970, or 1990. Neither are the rules. Physics and the rules are effectively capping things.
Why hasn't driving distance increased in the last 10 years, despite our increased knowledge of materials, equipment, launch, fitness, the importance of distance to making millions of dollars for 0.0001% of golfers, etc.? Why?
The distance many many players hit the golf ball in this day and age is simply too great.
Matthew, as you know, that's only your opinion. Mine's different. I disagree with not only your definition of "too great" but also your definition of "many players."
I live in the Philadelphia suburbs and cannot think of a 7,500 yard course within 100 miles of here. I'm sure there's one, but I think you set up a false hypothetical.
Because 99% of golfers don't need 7500 yards, and those courses realize that.
Jim: perhaps I did, I'm not sure - but with the class of vintage courses in the Philly area that might not be a good example either; and I did go and check the yardages at some of JN's recent resort courses in Cabo and of TW's Bluejacket course, as I thought these two 'types' of courses would be good barometers for what the public has come to expect (or at least what developers think they've come to expect): both of them over 7500 yards. That's a heck of a long golf course...
You're talking about one or two courses. And those tees were made because they had the land, and they wanted to build them.
Nobody has given any evidence to show that a majority or even a large minority of courses in the U.S. are expanding to even 7000 yards, let alone 7500.
and then there's this...https://mygolfspy.com/blue-oceans-balls-the-story-of-oncore-golf/
What about that, Jeff? The OnCore balls - at about 2x the cost of a Pro V1, and 3-4x the cost of a Snell, Vice, etc. - don't go any further. They're just another premium golf ball.
Let's suppose that football becomes verbotem due to concussions (a real possibility) and Tiger's comeback is crazy good-inspiring many.
Suddenly we have elite and large(would be) linebackers, defensive ends, running backs, quarterbacks from all over the country starting golf at age 6.
We already have that. Tiger already inspired a bunch of those players, and your plan not only hinges on the NFL going away, but also on the fact that "stronger" = "faster" which it does not. Jamie Sadlowski won long drive contests because he was FAST, not because he was 230 and could bench 500 pounds (or whatever).
Again, apologies for the long post. I'll gladly drop out of the conversation if y'all wish. I've not really said anything new, and Tim is saying similar things far better than I have. If you'd like me to drop out, please, just stop quoting me or asking me questions. If you're okay with me replying, keep doing those things.I too care about golf. I just disagree that the massive disruption and change of bifurcation OR a roll-back - each with as yet unknown and unintended consequences - is at all worth it.