Is there a destination golf bubble forming?

[Wayne_Kozun]

I think some of these resorts can make sense.  For those of us that have real winters and want to do a winter golf trip to Florida, where can you go for quality golf?  There is lots of mediocre places, but very few resorts or even cities that have world class courses.  Streamsong came along and kind of filled that void, and now we have Cabot Citrus about to join it.

[Steve_Roths]

https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/D4D16AQEzvHdeGvIk6Q/profile-displaybackgroundimage-shrink_350_1400/0/1706709611811?e=1725494400&v=beta&t=xIRgzZDI6Xmsgxeq-jFchBK56o3NJ2Kd3E0tzW1cHUI

This appears to be one of the few pics of Fall Line out there.

[Steve_Roths]

https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/D4D16AQEzvHdeGvIk6Q/profile-displaybackgroundimage-shrink_350_1400/0/1706709611811?e=1725494400&v=beta&t=xIRgzZDI6Xmsgxeq-jFchBK56o3NJ2Kd3E0tzW1cHUI[/font]This appears to be one of the few pics of Fall Line out there.[/size]

[Tom_Doak]

Philip:


I am pretty sure Te Arai will be okay.  They sold every lot for NZ$millions and sold a lot of NZ memberships to people who wished they’d joined Tara Iti.


It’s possible the price will come down eventually, but New Zealanders seem to love the place and it’s on the rota for international visitors.

[Cal Carlisle]

Hermes actually grew sales in 2009 - spenders are going to spend. The recent concentration of wealth is going to insulate most, if not all, of these destination resorts from any meaningful pain. In a recession, these top tier destination resorts might not have the tee sheets booked out as far as they do now, but I doubt very seriously you see prices recede. The pain is going to come is going to be felt by mid and lower tier resorts that rely on those with far less discretionary income to spend on the frivolity of golf (or a Birkin bag).

[Chris Hughes]

In a recession, these top tier destination resorts might not have the tee sheets booked out as far as they do now, but I doubt very seriously you see prices recede.
I remember when Pebble dropped the hotel stay requirement and was actually marketing discounted tee-times to Northern California Golf Association members.  The tee sheet was wide open during prime time/s on almost a daily basis.

The pain is going to come is going to be felt by mid and lower tier resorts that rely on those with far less discretionary income to spend on the frivolity of golf (or a Birkin bag).
This premise reminds me of Sea Island, they went bankrupt chasing that 5th Forbes Star.

[Rob Marshall]

I was thinking of going to Pebble next year because I haven't been there in about 20 years. I was willing to swallow the green fees but saw that a room was $1000 a night. I won't be going there.

$1k to stay at the Lodge or Spanish Bay?

I went Pebble around 15 years ago. $2200 for a round at Pebble and Spyglass. Two nights at the lodge and a $200 pro shop credit. Sounds like it’s doubled over that time period. Had a LPGA pro friend that won the California Am there a number of times. She told me the entry fee was $25. Shelly Hamlin if anyone is from the Fresno area.

[Rob Marshall]

What will be interesting to see is what happens to Innisbrook with Cabot Citrus Farms opening up. Innisbrook is tired. The Copperhead is great but the Island and the South are nothing special and the North was shut down to build houses.

[Chris Hughes]

What will be interesting to see is what happens to Innisbrook with Cabot Citrus Farms opening up. Innisbrook is tired. The Copperhead is great but the Island and the South are nothing special and the North was shut down to build houses.

Who owns Innisbrook now?

Earlier someone mentioned Streamsong as having filled a luxury void in the publicly accessible destination golf market in FLA and my immediate thought was "World Woods always suited me just fine"...appears that is no longer an option.   

No joking, I was told Streamsong charges $4.50 for a cup of ice -- could this possibly be true?

[Frank M]

Mike: I agree with you. Destination golf resorts are becoming way too expensive and way to gimmicky for me. I like discovering new things, and after the very few trips that I have made to these places, I started to know exactly what I was going to get. I started to feel like I was seeing the same things and even seeing the same people over and over again. I don't know. It's just not for me. But I think the real issue will be the cost these places are now charging. It puts them far out of reach for far too many people.

[Tim_Weiman]

Mike: I agree with you. Destination golf resorts are becoming way too expensive and way to gimmicky for me. I like discovering new things, and after the very few trips that I have made to these places, I started to know exactly what I was going to get. I started to feel like I was seeing the same things and even seeing the same people over and over again. I don't know. It's just not for me. But I think the real issue will be the cost these places are now charging. It puts them far out of reach for far too many people.

Frank,


I visited Pinehurst in the Spring of 2023. The place was packed. What really stood out was how many young people were playing. 30 somethings I thought, not retired boomers with money.


Sure, I played Pinehurst in my 20s, but paid about $40 for #2, if I remember correctly, and staying at resort lodge wasn’t bad.


Apparently there are many people, including young people, that can afford the going rate.


Tim

[Joe Zucker]

I don't think the rabid growth we are seeing in destination golf travel and course creation is sustainable long-term, as there wont't be enough Millenials and Gen Z'ers replacing and or surpassing the ranks of the Boomers and Gen X'ers supporting the current destination resort golf boom now to feed it's continued growth.

Responding to this point specifically, Millenials and Gen Z are actually bigger generations that Boomers and Gen X. Whether they take to golf is debatable, but the raw numbers are there.  I'd argue the boom of the destination resorts for Bandon et al. is driven mostly by millenials. They are entering their mid 30s and 40s and are young enough to play 36, but finally have money to spend as they enter their peak earning years.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/797321/us-population-by-generation/#:~:text=Millennials%20were%20the%20largest%20generation,the%20population%20for%20many%20years. 

[Matt Schoolfield]

I don't think the rabid growth we are seeing in destination golf travel and course creation is sustainable long-term, as there wont't be enough Millenials and Gen Z'ers replacing and or surpassing the ranks of the Boomers and Gen X'ers supporting the current destination resort golf boom now to feed it's continued growth.

Responding to this point specifically, Millenials and Gen Z are actually bigger generations that Boomers and Gen X. Whether they take to golf is debatable, but the raw numbers are there.  I'd argue the boom of the destination resorts for Bandon et al. is driven mostly by millenials. They are entering their mid 30s and 40s and are young enough to play 36, but finally have money to spend as they enter their peak earning years.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/797321/us-population-by-generation/#:~:text=Millennials%20were%20the%20largest%20generation,the%20population%20for%20many%20years.

Joe is absolutely right here. Even gen alpha kids are now old enough to be taken to these resorts by their millenial parents. If you're over 45, you're probably not the target demo for these resorts, as shocking as that might seem.

[Tim_Weiman]

I don't think the rabid growth we are seeing in destination golf travel and course creation is sustainable long-term, as there wont't be enough Millenials and Gen Z'ers replacing and or surpassing the ranks of the Boomers and Gen X'ers supporting the current destination resort golf boom now to feed it's continued growth.

Responding to this point specifically, Millenials and Gen Z are actually bigger generations that Boomers and Gen X. Whether they take to golf is debatable, but the raw numbers are there.  I'd argue the boom of the destination resorts for Bandon et al. is driven mostly by millenials. They are entering their mid 30s and 40s and are young enough to play 36, but finally have money to spend as they enter their peak earning years.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/797321/us-population-by-generation/#:~:text=Millennials%20were%20the%20largest%20generation,the%20population%20for%20many%20years.

Joe is absolutely right here. Even gen alpha kids are now old enough to be taken to these resorts by their millenial parents. If you're over 45, you're probably not the target demo for these resorts, as shocking as that might seem.

Matt,


Yes, that does seem kind of crazy.


Tim

[Mike Bodo]

Mike: I agree with you. Destination golf resorts are becoming way too expensive and way to gimmicky for me. I like discovering new things, and after the very few trips that I have made to these places, I started to know exactly what I was going to get. I started to feel like I was seeing the same things and even seeing the same people over and over again. I don't know. It's just not for me. But I think the real issue will be the cost these places are now charging. It puts them far out of reach for far too many people.

Frank,


I visited Pinehurst in the Spring of 2023. The place was packed. What really stood out was how many young people were playing. 30 somethings I thought, not retired boomers with money.


Sure, I played Pinehurst in my 20s, but paid about $40 for #2, if I remember correctly, and staying at resort lodge wasn’t bad.


Apparently there are many people, including young people, that can afford the going rate.


Tim

I think there are a lot of men 40 and under that come up with the cash (or pay via credit) for one lavish guys golf trip a year and the rest of the year their golf primarily consists of lower cost, local or regional public venues. There's a cahort of these individuals that belong to local private clubs, but I don't think it's the majority. Though I have nothing to support this.

That said, it shouldn't come as any surprise that according to a recent report from the Federal Reserve, Americans 55 and older possess 70% of household wealth, up from 50% in 1989. Boomers also account for 45% of US personal spending, up from 29% three decades ago, according to Moody’s Analytics.

As stated previously, this portends an ominous future not only for destination golf resort bookings and travel once the majority of "boomers" and older Gen X'ers have moved on, but resort and private golf club membership in general. These places should be stashing cash away now in their rainy day fund while the good times last, as they're likely going to need to tap into it sooner rather than later.

[John Handley]

Mike-


There is a lot of conjuncture here on your part about this perceived bubble.  But that's what discussion is all about.


One thing you may not be factoring into your opinion is that the wealth that Boomers have amassed and are currently enjoying, will be passed down to future generations.


Golf is expensive for the top courses and resorts and that won't decline unless there is a recession.  The smaller, less attractive ones might be the ones who feel more of the pain.  Pebble will still sell out all of their tee times

[Rob Marshall]

What will be interesting to see is what happens to Innisbrook with Cabot Citrus Farms opening up. Innisbrook is tired. The Copperhead is great but the Island and the South are nothing special and the North was shut down to build houses.

Who owns Innisbrook now?

Earlier someone mentioned Streamsong as having filled a luxury void in the publicly accessible destination golf market in FLA and my immediate thought was "World Woods always suited me just fine"...appears that is no longer an option.   

No joking, I was told Streamsong charges $4.50 for a cup of ice -- could this possibly be true?

Innisbrook is owned by Salamander which is owned by a women who along with her ex started BET.

[Matt Schoolfield]

That said, it shouldn't come as any surprise that according to a recent report from the Federal Reserve, Americans 55 and older possess 70% of household wealth, up from 50% in 1989. Boomers also account for 45% of US personal spending, up from 29% three decades ago, according to Moody’s Analytics.

As stated previously, this portends an ominous future not only for destination golf resort bookings and travel once the majority of "boomers" and older Gen X'ers have moved on, but resort and private golf club membership in general. These places should be stashing cash away now in their rainy day fund while the good times last, as they're likely going to need to tap into it sooner rather than later.

I will reiterate my thinking here again as I'm very confused about much of this thread...

In the high season, right now, I could theoretically book a round at Bandon for $400 and at Sand Valley for $300 without even staying at the resorts. That is pennies compared to a private membership. It's even pennies compared to Pebble Beach, which is $1625, minimum, for the round and the required night stay.

It is very, very obvious to me that these courses are specifically providing options for more frugal (read: younger) players.

Yes, boomers and gen x have more capital, but these resorts do not require high net worths. Equity clubs require high net worths. Equity clubs should be extremely concerned about cash flow shocks in the relatively near future as many of their members (likely a majority) are all on the same actuarial table and younger folks might balk at the costs involved.

These resorts, however, allow for a huge diversity of players. They allow for a kid making a starting salary to play once a year if they're willing to drive 8 hours and stay in a motel a half-hour away. They also allow for the successful business owner to play a different course every day for a week at $500+ per night. Their business model as I see it, and as Mike Keiser seems to be fairly open about, is to capture Scottish/Irish club visitor fee income that American clubs don't offer.

I know less about Streamsong and Cabot, and I don't understand the Florida market at all (it seems fairly saturated), but I understand that I'm being marketed to, constantly, by destination resort courses. Every single golf blogger/youtuber I follow ends up at every new course that opens up. Pretty much all my golf friends have heard the name "Sedge Valley" even though it's only been open for a week.

[Charlie Goerges]

I will reiterate my thinking here again as I'm very confused about much of this thread...

I get what you are saying, but it's not really practicable to go to Bandon to play a single round of golf. Yes private club costs are exponentially higher in the US, but I know (read: am close with) like maybe 2 people personally (Edit: under 45) who could afford to go to Bandon. I'm close enough to consider driving to Sand Valley to play a single round, and I probably will at some point, but I can't justify all the time and expense to get to Bandon to play a single round of golf. It's probably a different calculus for you being in San Francisco though.

[Matt Schoolfield]

I can't justify all the time and expense to get to Bandon to play a single round of golf. It's probably a different calculus for you being in San Francisco though.

Right, but my point is that there are at least 18 million people within an 8 hour drive of Bandon¹, and it's by far the most remote course. If you bump that number to 10 hours, you can add the 2.6M in Vancouver.

Yes, the idea that Bandon puts out there is that it's a destination resort that the elite will fly to and spend buckets of money at, but isn't actually what they are asking people to do. That's what Pebble requires, or the Wynn or Shadow Creek, but it's not actually what these destination resorts require at all. And, given the fact that the resorts have significantly more tee time capacity than they do accommodation capacity, I suspect that regional play is part of their business model, even if they're not saying it out loud.

As I said previously. They're far enough away to not be dominated by local play, but close enough to make local play not only feasible, but entirely practical for those who do not have the means to play equivalent elite courses. It's long-tail economics, but there is often just as much money in the long-tail as in the head of the distribution, and I suspect they are trying to capture both by allowing a bit of effort-based price discrimination.   

---

¹Seattle Metro: 4M -- Oregon 4.2M -- Bay Area: 9.7M

[Mike Bodo]

Mike-


There is a lot of conjuncture here on your part about this perceived bubble.  But that's what discussion is all about.


One thing you may not be factoring into your opinion is that the wealth that Boomers have amassed and are currently enjoying, will be passed down to future generations.


Golf is expensive for the top courses and resorts and that won't decline unless there is a recession.  The smaller, less attractive ones might be the ones who feel more of the pain.  Pebble will still sell out all of their tee times

John, I agree with many of your points, but between pending increased capacity and possible decline in golfer numbers, I question if there will be enough new on-course golfers entering the ranks to fill the void? That said, I was encouraged to come across a stastic that on-course male golfers in the 21 - 35 age demographic comprised 31% of all male U.S. golfers. So, perhaps this is much ado about nothing? I'd love to find a graph that breaks down U.S. on-course golf participation in 2023 by gender and age group, but they're hard to come by for some reason. On a personal note, I recently came back from a trip to French Lick Resort and would say most of the guys I saw playing the Dye and Ross courses there were 40 and younger, which echoes Tim's point. At 59, I felt pretty old. LOL!

[Mike Bodo]

I will reiterate my thinking here again as I'm very confused about much of this thread...

In the high season, right now, I could theoretically book a round at Bandon for $400 and at Sand Valley for $300 without even staying at the resorts. That is pennies compared to a private membership. It's even pennies compared to Pebble Beach, which is $1625, minimum, for the round and the required night stay.

It is very, very obvious to me that these courses are specifically providing options for more frugal (read: younger) players.

Matt, you raise excellent points and I suspect destnation golf has huge appeal to the younger set vs. private (equity) club membership given how prominently it's promoted and featured on social media (think of Good Good, NLU, Foreplay Golf and others). However, I feel there's an over exuberance of companies and individuals trying to cash in on the gold rush. Before long the market will be oversaturated with resorts trying to appeal to this finite cohort of golfers and will be subject to financial headwinds. Where the tipping point is at this time is anyone's guess, but given the number of new resort courses set to come online the next several years I don't think we're far off. While this development has been great for new course development and golf course architects, I don't see it lasting.

[Kalen Braley]

Charlie,

I agree.  Even a Bandon trip on the cheap (assuming 4 or more hours away) would be a 2 day affair with ideally at least two rounds of golf.

When you also factor in a one night hotel stay, 5-6 meals, potentially a tank or two of gas, incidentals, etc., that would easily run north of 1k per person for a weekend trip.

Certainly not a trivial amount for anyone on a fixed budget.

[Wayne_Kozun]

If these resorts continue to be successful then you will see them making fewer tee times available for non-resort guests, just like Pebble. So there will be fewer options to play these courses, and it will more likely be in the off-season when there is less demand from the customers dropping the big money for golf, accommodations and F&B.

[Matt MacIver]

I called Pinehurst this Spring to inquire about their stay & play requirements and was told #s 2, 4 and 10 will all require at least one nights’ stay, and these three courses won’t take daily walkups.