OT -Scheffler's Dominance

[David_Tepper]

I don't follow the PGA Tour that closely any more and I have never been much of a stat nerd. This article about just how dominant Scottie Scheffler has been lately is eye-opening.

https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/needtoknow/2024/04/17/the-five-absurd-stats-that-explain-scottie-scheffler-s-dominance

[Rob Marshall]

He's an amazing golfer and appears to be an even better person.

[David Harshbarger]

Hot takes:


There’s a non-zero chance Scottie packs it in mid career to spend his time as a family man.


Scottie and Ludvig are going to define the next few years.  Not Rory. Not Rahm. Not LIV boys. Scottie & Ludvig. It will be the most congenial rivalry.

[Jeff Schley]

I like Ludvig, but would put Morikawa there, followed closely by Hovland and Homa.

[cary lichtenstein]

Remarkably consistent!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Pete_Pittock]

What about Nelly Korda's dominance? And in the 15 year old category there is Miles Russell who was T20 on the Korn Ferry Tour with rounds of 68-66-70-66 (-14)

[David Harshbarger]

I like Ludvig, but would put Morikawa there, followed closely by Hovland and Homa.

Collin has 2 and Viktor and Max winning a major wouldn’t surprise and certain would be fan favorites. I just don’t see any of those three stepping up to a level of consistent excellence to push Scottie.


My snap takes are that Collin loves the trappings of success too much and doesn’t have the grit to maintain excellent play, Viktor has a mercurial short game, and Max just isn’t quite at the Scottie level to push consistently.


Nelly certainly doesn’t have a rival at the moment. Healthy, she could keep this run of high finishes (prolly not wins) going for some time. For the time being she’s going to be fighting the weekly shooters who get hit and there’s no doubt there’s a talent galore on LPGA from slow play artistes the Henderson sisters, a host of euros, a host of Chinese, Vu, Ko, Green, Hull, now Woad, on and on. Lexi’s still around, Rose is contending and could become a force like Nelly, and it’s not like Nelly is absolutely obliterating fields. She’s just getting leads, keeping the door closed, and if she slips up and lets someone get a foot in, she slams the door back shut.

[Kalen Braley]

David,

There are 232 major winners in golf history, and less than 20% (46) have won more than 2.  Of that 46, only 2 or 3 have a realistic shot at winning another with the rest either past their prime, long retired, or passed away.

So yea I'd say there isn't much in front of him. However, before Scottie is anointed, he still only has 2. 

[David Harshbarger]

David,

There are 232 major winners in golf history, and less than 20% (46) have won more than 2.  Of that 46, only 2 or 3 have a realistic shot at winning another with the rest either past their prime, long retired, or passed away.

So yea I'd say there isn't much in front of him. However, before Scottie is anointed, he still only has 2. 

Echoes of Jack commenting on Tiger around 2011-12 iirc: it sure looked inevitable that Tiger would pass Jack, but as Jack said, until he does it, he hasn’t done it.

[David_Tepper]

"My snap takes are that Collin loves the trappings of success too much and doesn’t have the grit to maintain excellent play"

David H. -

I am curious as to what gives you that impression. I  don't think of him in that way at all.

DT

[David Harshbarger]

"My snap takes are that Collin loves the trappings of success too much and doesn’t have the grit to maintain excellent play"

David H. -

I am curious as to what gives you that impression. I  don't think of him in that way at all.

DT

The puppy booties from Full Swing started it as he and his GF got off a PJ to go over the clothing options a sponsor had prepared for him.


Then just an accumulation of petty observations - collapse in Hawai’i, fail to threaten in Augusta, body language on mistakes, nothing scientific and all filtered through my biases.

[Keith Phillips]

Scottie's run is impressive and his stats are off the charts.  He could be the next big thing or he could be like Rory, Jordan, DJ, Jason Day, JT, etc. - all had a run but none has become the next Tiger.  Scottie's stats are the most impressive but there is a lot of talent coming behind him.

[David_Tepper]

David H -

CM has always struck me as a mature, thoughtful young man. He had a strong winning record as an amateur. He went to one of the top academic universities in America and graduated. He married his long time girlfriend.

He was the first player since Bobby Jones to win 2 majors in 8 or fewer starts. He was the first player to win 2 majors in his first appearances. My guess is he is one of the youngest players to win 2 majors.   

Maybe he peaked too soon. Time will tell.

DT

[David Harshbarger]

Scottie's run is impressive and his stats are off the charts.  He could be the next big thing or he could be like Rory, Jordan, DJ, Jason Day, JT, etc. - all had a run but none has become the next Tiger.  Scottie's stats are the most impressive but there is a lot of talent coming behind him.

Betting the under on “Majors won” could be just another way of betting on the future.


Andy Johnson has observed that golf is becoming more athletic, which could have the effect shortening careers. If youthful athleticism maintains its premium then could the eras of durable stars be done?


I think of Byron Nelson playing pro golf to fund his dream of a ranch, and once he had won enough to build it and get the livestock he hung up his spikes.


Don’t know if Scottie has a ranch in mind but his saying golf doesn’t define him suggests he could leave the game early or at the top. And, if he does dominate for a few years he may just reach a point he doesn’t want to deal with the pressure any more, or maybe the satisfaction of winning becomes hollow.


Scottie has left almost all the ad space on his body unsold. Nike got its spot; and TaylorMade, the bag. I assume he has concluded the obligations of sponsorship are not worth the money. He may have even concluded that taking the sponsorships earlier in his career would have made on course success more difficult, so foregoing them was the smart move for overall success. If he’s willing to leave money on the table over sponsorships, he might be willing to leave pro golf as well.


OTOH he says he’s just really competitive and for a lot of folks that’s bred in the bone.


All of that makes him more interesting to me.

[David Harshbarger]

David H -

CM has always struck me as a mature, thoughtful young man. He had a strong winning record as an amateur. He went to one of the top academic universities in America and graduated. He married his long time girlfriend.

He was the first player since Bobby Jones to win 2 majors in 8 or fewer starts. He was the first player to win 2 majors in his first appearances. My guess is he is one of the youngest players to win 2 majors.   

Maybe he peaked too soon. Time will tell.

DT

David T - I was drawn to Collin from the time he and Wolfe battled for his first win. Later, the eagle at Harding Park on 16? was special, very special.


No doubt he has shown talent and I think that’s colored my thinking as well. After his electric start he fell off, occasionally popping into contention but not regularly winning, more less dominating.


His college resume feeds into my take as well. He is extremely marketable in the executive/sports segment. Accomplished, educated, well spoken, handsome, he must be in demand for corporate events, and he doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who would shy away from those earning opportunities.


So piecing together new demands and earnings with on course drop off plus a dash of vibes I get to distracted by success.


No doubt this could just be a point in time and Collin comes out and wins and contends regularly. He’s got the talent.

[Jeff Evagues]

I remember when Sergio finished behind Tiger at the 1999 PGA the "experts" guaranteed he would win majors left and right. It took him 20 years.

[Tom_Doak]

Scottie's run is impressive and his stats are off the charts.  He could be the next big thing or he could be like Rory, Jordan, DJ, Jason Day, JT, etc. - all had a run but none has become the next Tiger.  Scottie's stats are the most impressive but there is a lot of talent coming behind him.

I noticed none of the commentators on PGA TOUR broadcasts have considered the possibility that the field of competitors is somewhat diluted these days, and that would make it easier for a great player at the peak of his game to win several tournaments in a row.

[/size]You forgot to mention a few of them yourself.  In fact, of the last five major championship winners, before Scheffler, three of them are no longer competing against him on the PGA TOUR.  None of them could beat him two weeks ago, but in the rest of those events, the competition was not as strong.

[mike_beene]

One thing that might matter is travel for a Byron Nelson was much more difficult. Scheffler lives in Dallas five minutes from the FBO terminal. He is door to door a couple of hours to a number of tournaments. Travel is a curse, but less of one in that instance.

[Pete_Pittock]

Scottie's run is impressive and his stats are off the charts.  He could be the next big thing or he could be like Rory, Jordan, DJ, Jason Day, JT, etc. - all had a run but none has become the next Tiger.  Scottie's stats are the most impressive but there is a lot of talent coming behind him.

I noticed none of the commentators on PGA TOUR broadcasts have considered the possibility that the field of competitors is somewhat diluted these days, and that would make it easier for a great player at the peak of his game to win several tournaments in a row.

You forgot to mention a few of them yourself.  In fact, of the last five major championship winners, before Scheffler, three of them are no longer competing against him on the PGA TOUR.  None of them could beat him two weeks ago, but in the rest of those events, the competition was not as strong.

Doak's comments, readable font

[Tom_Doak]

Doak's comments, readable font

Fixed now, thanks Pete.

[Jerry Kluger]

Just look at Rory - he certainly looked even better than Scottie does today but it has been a long drought since Rory has won a major and there is nothing which would indicate that he is about to win one now.  Scottie should ride it as long as a he can and realize that there is another great player in his rear view mirror and sooner or later he will be surpassed so take it for everything he can while he can. (Tiger was in a league of his own and Scottie has a long way to go before even being mentioned in the same sentence.)

[Pete_Pittock]

article today with strokes gained stats.  It's Tiger, Scottie and then a drop-off
Tiger Woods breaks down Scottie Scheffler's dominant run on PGA Tour: 'He's just that good' (msn.com)

[Ken Moum]

My favorite part of this, other than the fact that I was his walking scorer at Karsten Creek 13 years ago, is the fact that his putting resurgence coincides with removing the cheater line from his ball.


Shivas would be proud.


Now we only need the USGA to start enforcing their own rule. 😇

[Craig Sweet]

Wasn't there a guy that won 10 times in a season that included three majors?

[Craig Sweet]

Scottie is a Christian so it does not surprise me that he says "golf doesn't define me".