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Erik J. Barzeski

  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #350 on: October 11, 2024, 11:35:54 PM »
You really are your own biggest fan, aren't you.  Honestly, it's pretty obnoxious.
I think comments like that right there are pretty obnoxious. But I like to stick to the topic, so… I'll do that now.

I suspect both Erik and Molinari are thinking of elite level golfers playing courses that are less than fast and firm while from my perspective, that of an undoubtedly average golfer playing on courses that are usually a good bit firmer than they are looking at, their contention simply doesn't hold water.
The PGA Tour typically plays firmer course setups (particularly at the greens) than the average golfer faces. The data from hundreds of millions of shots doesn't align with what you're saying here.

I don't care to engage him on that level (or at all, really).
And yet…

The manner in which he consistently behaves on this board is simply obnoxious.
Says the guy doing the name-calling. ;)

In the interest of addressing the actual topic of this thread, I will say that the aspect of golf performance that the data-driven experts seem to ignore (or at least not consider enough) is psychology. For logical players, conclusive data should instill confidence and lead to improved performance. In many cases, it does. However, for many of us, something changes when we step over the ball. For some, thoughts race, countless swing thoughts shuffle through their brain. For others, the mind goes blank, causing a momentary loss of any semblance of how to hit the pending shot. As a mid-handicap player for 30+ years, I have proven many times over that I am capable of hitting the necessary shots to score well, but doing so consistently evades me. I work with heavy data and analytics all day every day, so I understand and endorse its potential power, but for that to translate to performance requires effective, flexible instruction as well as a receptive, capable audience. Banging people over the head with data rarely works.  I can speak from extensive experience.
I don't see how that really addresses the topic at all.

Some here would tell you to aim for the left-center of the fairway and to challenge the bunker to give yourself the best angle to the green, data would tell you to aim away from the bunker a bit, toward a spot just in the right-center of the fairway perhaps.

Either way, you're just talking about a point to aim at. That's all this is. Psychologically, a player is often more comfortable not aiming close to trouble, and can take comfort in knowing the data says they're making a smarter play.

And the word "consistency" is perhaps the most over-used word said by golfers taking lessons. Literally everyone wants more consistency; it's a given. If you could hit your 7I 150 yards and into a circle 10 feet in diameter (and all of your other clubs comparatively accurately), you'd win every PGA Tour event ever played, despite a (relative) lack of length. You're a mid-handicapper because you're as (in)consistent as you are. Your swing produces a wider variance of shots than a golfer with a lower handicap, in general. You hit some good shots, you hit some bad shots. So do pros… it's just that their bad shots are WAY better than yours, and their good shots are all generally a little bit better, too. Their distribution is a lot narrower.


Nearly everyone playing golf for awhile hits an occasional "pro-level" shot. It doesn't "prove" what you may think it proves; yes, you're capable of it, but it's an exception when you hit it, and it's closer to the rule when a Tour player hits it. It's like saying you won $200 on a scratch-off ticket once and saying "you've proven you're capable of winning money playing the lottery." It doesn't hold up over the long term at your ability level.

Guys-What you have to remember about Erik is that he participates on GCA in an effort to sell you something namely his data driven “Lowest Score Wins” system and not to participate in the frank discussion of golf course architecture.
Yeah, that's not remotely true. If it was, I'd be earning, I don't know, two cents an hour, tops? What you just said is not accurate in the least. But I sense that it's a convenient way for you to ignore some things you don't like.

Hear hear. Big Data Golf dumbs down the game in certain ways because it implies that golfers should play against their instincts even in what they know to be potentially high-stress, high-leverage and high-downside situations. Every single golf shot contains so many variables that could lead to going against the data that stripping the individual golfer of his or her agency can be destructive. The data is by no means useless, but it's nowhere near all-knowing.
Understanding the data is but one factor in a player's decision on where to aim, what type of shot to hit, etc. The players we work with learn these kinds of things. They learn when to perhaps be a bit more aggressive or a bit less. They learn to understand normal variance, and manage expectations. If you think it's a purely formulaic endeavor, without consideration for the player and the situation… you don't really understand what we do.

But, in general, as Edoardo said… angles don't matter. Chasing them is often folly. He said on 99% of golf holes or courses, and I would not go quite that high… but he's also mostly talking about PGA Tour players.

The "Angles Don't Matter" narrative is starting to become extremely exhausting at this point because it relies on the made-up straw-man concept of "chasing angles." Aiming down the right half of a fairway isn't "chasing an angle" so much as it's an attempt to adjust the spray-pattern of shots in such a way that the golfer, with self-knowledge and agency, knows is going to benefit him or her.
Oh boy, no. There are a ton of examples where golfers are encouraged to chase an angle "for a better angle on their approach shot" or whatever. They're not hard to find. They're almost always going to lead to a higher scoring average than not chasing the angle.

"Chasing angles" is not a straw man. Y'all are on a roll with your easy ways to try to ignore something that's inconvenient to your views.

Of course, I agree it is all in the hands of the user.  That said, proponents of the system say that you need to be disciplined and NEVER allow your instinct to override the stats, except perhaps when an all or nothing situation in your match makes you.  Even Erik says this.
Yep. If you're driving it really well on a given day, you can narrow up your Shot Zone (or poorly, then that may require an adjustment). Or if a wedge shot really suits your eye, we help players understand how they might shift from taking the "straight data" approach in a situation like that.

If you're two outside the cut line with five holes to go, we teach our players how to maximize their chances of making the cut — what are the best opportunities to make birdie in the next five holes (and if they get down to three holes… how to further shift the GamePlan…).

Like I said up above, it's not "100% always follow the data." It is when we're talking generalities, because we can't know the exact situation or the player playing. So it leads to things like Edoardo saying "99% of the holes, angles don't matter." Generalities. There's no other way to have a conversation, reasonably, unfortunately. Unless you get a BUNCH of specifics, and even then, it's just about that ONE thing. That one situation or shot. Change one of the many variables there, and it might change the best option.

If the Angles Don't Matter moniker bothers you, how about "Avoid the hazards first and foremost" as a substitute?
Yup. (Generally…) Penalties are shots lost. Bunkers are worse than the rough, and they're both worse than being in the fairway from the "wrong" side.

It's really not a complicated thing, but neither is "NBA players should take the easy layups or shoot threes. The mid-range jump shot is inefficient." (I'm not a basketball fan, but I think that's at least a half decent summary of the shift in how the game is played these days?) Is that ALWAYS the case? No. But in general, the game of basketball is played differently now. So are MLB games. So are soccer games. So are football games - look at how many teams go for it on fourth down these days. Look at how many teams choose when to go for 2. Etc.

If angles don't matter, does it also mean we stop building them?
No, I gave a bunch of reasons or times when angles matter at the end of my presentation last year.

Just noticed this.  As an octogenarian high handicapper, I say that angles matter a lot.
I've always said that they begin to matter when the ball is rolling. You probably aren't flying it and stopping it relatively quickly, so yes, they likely matter more to you than me.
Erik J. Barzeski @iacas
Author, Lowest Score Wins, Instructor/Coach, and Lifetime Student of the Game.

I generally ignore Rob, Tim, Garland, and Chris.

Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #351 on: October 11, 2024, 11:59:35 PM »
I am always amazed when a pro hits a drive and you watch it bound along the fairway and it comes to rest in an area surrounded by 50 divots.  Wow! They hit the ball there, apparently for a reason...all of them.  Is it the best percentage location for the next shot? Is it the best angle for the next shot?  Did someone (course set up guy, course designer???) dictate that location as the best place to hit your ball?
No one is above the law. LOCK HIM UP!!!

Erik J. Barzeski

  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #352 on: October 12, 2024, 12:02:15 AM »
I am always amazed when a pro hits a drive and you watch it bound along the fairway and it comes to rest in an area surrounded by 50 divots.  Wow! They hit the ball there, apparently for a reason...all of them.  Is it the best percentage location for the next shot? Is it the best angle for the next shot?  Did someone (course set up guy, course designer???) dictate that location as the best place to hit your ball?
You should email that one with Edoardo.
Erik J. Barzeski @iacas
Author, Lowest Score Wins, Instructor/Coach, and Lifetime Student of the Game.

I generally ignore Rob, Tim, Garland, and Chris.

Jeff_Brauer

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #353 on: October 14, 2024, 02:38:22 PM »
Random thought over the weekend.....for those who are angered by the phrase "angles don't matter" even though it is statistically proven, how about "Statistically, going for the pin isn't a wise play?"  That is basically the context, i.e., no matter where you are in the fw, even with what you deem a more favorable angle, shot dispersion patterns now tell us it is a low % play to aim close to the edge of a green with a tucked pin....which has long been told to us ams as the best way to play a hole. 


Basically, low handicap players need to get within 8-10 feet to have a statistical 50% chance making a birdie putt but only get within 10-12% of the approach distance to the cup.  At 160 yards, that is 48-54 feet from the cup, almost 5-7X more likely.  Over time, the bogeys simply outweigh the birdies (I think we can all get behind that observation) no matter where you approach from.


Ditto for "challenging a fw bunker." Birdie out of the fw hazard drops to near zero, I would think, whereas bogey from a hazard chances go way, way up.  If your dispersion pattern is 10-12% off the tee for, say 280 yards, that is 28-34 yards.  And, despite many last generation pros believing it, there is no way you can "take one side out of play."  No matter where you aim, it is still 28-34 yards, total, with misses on both sides.  If you aim within 28 yards of that fw bunker, you take a chance on getting in it. 


Again, that is over time.  You can occasionally make a birdie by playing the angle at a crucial point in the match, but you should never expect it.
Jeff Brauer, ASGCA Director of Outreach

Charlie Goerges

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #354 on: October 14, 2024, 03:13:03 PM »
Random thought over the weekend.....for those who are angered by the phrase "angles don't matter" even though it is statistically proven, how about "Statistically, going for the pin isn't a wise play?"  That is basically the context, i.e., no matter where you are in the fw, even with what you deem a more favorable angle, shot dispersion patterns now tell us it is a low % play to aim close to the edge of a green with a tucked pin....which has long been told to us ams as the best way to play a hole. 


Basically, low handicap players need to get within 8-10 feet to have a statistical 50% chance making a birdie putt but only get within 10-12% of the approach distance to the cup.  At 160 yards, that is 48-54 feet from the cup, almost 5-7X more likely.  Over time, the bogeys simply outweigh the birdies (I think we can all get behind that observation) no matter where you approach from.


Ditto for "challenging a fw bunker." Birdie out of the fw hazard drops to near zero, I would think, whereas bogey from a hazard chances go way, way up.  If your dispersion pattern is 10-12% off the tee for, say 280 yards, that is 28-34 yards.  And, despite many last generation pros believing it, there is no way you can "take one side out of play."  No matter where you aim, it is still 28-34 yards, total, with misses on both sides.  If you aim within 28 yards of that fw bunker, you take a chance on getting in it. 


Again, that is over time.  You can occasionally make a birdie by playing the angle at a crucial point in the match, but you should never expect it.




I get that, but it's also sort of like the old argument we'd have on here about whether only good players can take advantage of strategy (especially angles). I disagree, but I also believe that the statistics might show that angles don't matter in part because there isn't much strategy built into most courses (and it's pretty weak when it is included).


The course I grew up on had very little difference in approach difficulty from any given location as long as the distances were equal (i.e. left rough at 150 yards vs right rough at 150 yards being equally difficult). And the majority of the type of courses I've played in my life have been similar to that. But the relatively small number of times that I encounter real strategy (challenge the hazard to have an easier subsequent shot) it's been refreshing, even when I can't quite execute.
Severally on the occasion of everything that thou doest, pause and ask thyself, if death is a dreadful thing because it deprives thee of this. - Marcus Aurelius

Erik J. Barzeski

  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #355 on: October 14, 2024, 05:59:19 PM »
Random thought over the weekend.....for those who are angered by the phrase "angles don't matter" even though it is statistically proven, how about "Statistically, going for the pin isn't a wise play?"  That is basically the context, i.e., no matter where you are in the fw, even with what you deem a more favorable angle, shot dispersion patterns now tell us it is a low % play to aim close to the edge of a green with a tucked pin....which has long been told to us ams as the best way to play a hole. 

Basically, low handicap players need to get within 8-10 feet to have a statistical 50% chance making a birdie putt but only get within 10-12% of the approach distance to the cup.  At 160 yards, that is 48-54 feet from the cup, almost 5-7X more likely.  Over time, the bogeys simply outweigh the birdies (I think we can all get behind that observation) no matter where you approach from.

Ditto for "challenging a fw bunker." Birdie out of the fw hazard drops to near zero, I would think, whereas bogey from a hazard chances go way, way up.  If your dispersion pattern is 10-12% off the tee for, say 280 yards, that is 28-34 yards.  And, despite many last generation pros believing it, there is no way you can "take one side out of play."  No matter where you aim, it is still 28-34 yards, total, with misses on both sides.  If you aim within 28 yards of that fw bunker, you take a chance on getting in it. 

Again, that is over time.  You can occasionally make a birdie by playing the angle at a crucial point in the match, but you should never expect it.
It's a good post, Jeff. Dispersion off the tee is normally bigger than the 10-12%, too. I don't necessarily go with Scott's 60-65 yards, but even at 40 yards, or 45… the math shifts even more in favor of the tiny or more-often-than-many-here-would-believe non-existent reward not being worth the often substantial risk.

I also believe that the statistics might show that angles don't matter in part because there isn't much strategy built into most courses (and it's pretty weak when it is included).
That doesn't bear out. Over the years I've been sharing what the data shows, I've asked for people to give me examples. I think I may have given more examples of holes where it can matter (the first at Royal Melbourne in the Presidents Cup) than others.
But the relatively small number of times that I encounter real strategy (challenge the hazard to have an easier subsequent shot) it's been refreshing, even when I can't quite execute.
This is often demonstrated to be wrong for two reasons:

First, the benefit is often not nearly as large as people perceive. I've shared the charts from PGA Tour players showing their play from the "better" side of the fairway to a tucked pin, and the scoring is almost exactly the same as they do from the bad side and the center of the fairway. The data is consistent with even 10 handicappers, too. The fairway — anywhere in the fairway — is almost always about the same, and better than anywhere in the rough (comparing the same distances, that is).

Second, nobody's even really saying the first thing, because sometimes there is an advantage to being over there. The problem is, by aiming for that side, you're bringing more trouble into play. Let's say it's just a fairway with rough: you're better off aiming for the middle, and accepting your fortune when your ball finds the "better" left side over the "worse" right side. But even on that hole, if you aim for the left side, you're going to end up in the rough more often, and the rough from the "better" side is still often worse than the fairway from the "worse" side. The risk is often not worth the reward.

Angles matter… visually. Artistically. But, in terms of scoring, angles matter very seldom, and almost exclusively when the ball is rolling. This requires either firm conditions, lower ball speed players, recovery shots from bad places, extreme width, or a combo of two or more. A rolling ball interacts with the architecture.
Erik J. Barzeski @iacas
Author, Lowest Score Wins, Instructor/Coach, and Lifetime Student of the Game.

I generally ignore Rob, Tim, Garland, and Chris.

Mike_Clayton

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #356 on: October 14, 2024, 06:02:51 PM »
4. You have always possessed a great analytical mind for dissecting a course and figuring out how to get the ball in the hole in as few a shots as possible. What tactical advise do you offer?
Hitting for the centre of greens is uncommon these days. It is said to be throwing money away and no way to win. Doing the opposite is one certain way to miss cuts and throw tournaments away.

Peter Thomson  GCA Feature Interview.
I well remember him impressing on us as kids you aimed at the flag with a wedge - the rest you play for the middle. Very unfashionable at the time.

Erik J. Barzeski

  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #357 on: October 14, 2024, 06:21:25 PM »
I well remember him impressing on us as kids you aimed at the flag with a wedge - the rest you play for the middle. Very unfashionable at the time.
We've learned a bit since then, Mike. But it sounds like he was close.

(FWIW we rarely advise people to aim at the middle of the green with a wedge. But we rarely advise people to aim right at the hole, either, depending on where it is.)

Every sport has changed due to analytics. The way we play basketball, baseball, football (both versions), hockey… it's all shifted.
Erik J. Barzeski @iacas
Author, Lowest Score Wins, Instructor/Coach, and Lifetime Student of the Game.

I generally ignore Rob, Tim, Garland, and Chris.

Mike_Clayton

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #358 on: October 14, 2024, 08:16:25 PM »
In fairness to Peter, I'm probably misrepresenting him a touch. More likely it was - 'it's ok to play at the flag with a wedge'


This is what's changed from the 1950s and 60s when he was at his best.


5. Anything else?
The main thing about golf is to get your first shot onto what used to be called fair ground, now called fairway. It does not matter a lot if you are 50 metres on or 50 metres back. That will be taken care of by the next shot. Getting the ball into play – or as I call it, serving the ball into court – is vital. I first came upon this when I played the US Open in the early 50s. In those days, the US PGA made fairways we thought were ridiculously small. They were only 20 metres wide and all the players complained. It was so very different to every other tournament we played, but it became widespread. In any championship worth its salt, the targets were pretty small.

Jeff_Brauer

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #359 on: October 17, 2024, 10:00:25 PM »

Basically, low handicap players need to get within 8-10 feet to have a statistical 50% chance making a birdie putt but only get within 10-12% of the approach distance to the cup.  At 160 yards, that is 48-54 feet from the cup, almost 5-7X more likely.  Over time, the bogeys simply outweigh the birdies (I think we can all get behind that observation) no matter where you approach from.

Ditto for "challenging a fw bunker." Birdie out of the fw hazard drops to near zero, I would think, whereas bogey from a hazard chances go way, way up.  If your dispersion pattern is 10-12% off the tee for, say 280 yards, that is 28-34 yards.  And, despite many last generation pros believing it, there is no way you can "take one side out of play."  No matter where you aim, it is still 28-34 yards, total, with misses on both sides.  If you aim within 28 yards of that fw bunker, you take a chance on getting in it. 

Again, that is over time.  You can occasionally make a birdie by playing the angle at a crucial point in the match, but you should never expect it.

It's a good post, Jeff. Dispersion off the tee is normally bigger than the 10-12%, too. I don't necessarily go with Scott's 60-65 yards, but even at 40 yards, or 45… the math shifts even more in favor of the tiny or more-often-than-many-here-would-believe non-existent reward not being worth the often substantial risk.



Erik,


My mistake. I had been working with the USGA Slope guide, where they measured the 2/3 probability of hitting a target, where as users of the stat system measure 99% probability in width, equating to 60-64 yards at 300, or 20+%, plus or minus.


I wonder what the stats tell us when going from a 66% chance to a 99% chance of hitting a target doubles the required target width?
Jeff Brauer, ASGCA Director of Outreach

Chris Hughes

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #360 on: October 17, 2024, 11:28:21 PM »

I guess I need some clarification on the OP.  Is the claim really that angles don’t matter for any player in any situation on any course?  Or just that it doesn’t happen often enough to be statistically relevant?
The 8 words quoted in the original post are, well, stupid...
Who is it CRAIG SWEET wants to "LOCK UP"...??

Chris Hughes

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #361 on: October 17, 2024, 11:44:28 PM »
4. You have always possessed a great analytical mind for dissecting a course and figuring out how to get the ball in the hole in as few a shots as possible. What tactical advise do you offer?
Hitting for the centre of greens is uncommon these days. It is said to be throwing money away and no way to win. Doing the opposite is one certain way to miss cuts and throw tournaments away.

Peter Thomson  GCA Feature Interview.
I well remember him impressing on us as kids you aimed at the flag with a wedge - the rest you play for the middle. Very unfashionable at the time.
For many years I kept my handicap at an MGA club. 

The MGA has a terrific monthly (or 6 times per year?) magazine.

Once a year they list the course record at every club in the section. 

As a part of this, every page or two they'd have a quarter-page box highlighting the details of said course record.

I can't remember the course, or the name of the guy who posted the record score...

...but it was (i) a private club, (ii) the round was recorded on a Monday when the club was closed, (iii) the assistant pro posted 61, and (iv) the score is notable because there were no flagsticks in the holes.

Make of it what you will.

I caddie regularly for a number of very very good players and that story always resonates with every one of them.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2024, 09:56:38 AM by Chris Hughes »
Who is it CRAIG SWEET wants to "LOCK UP"...??

Chris Hughes

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #362 on: October 17, 2024, 11:50:44 PM »
I am always amazed when a pro hits a drive and you watch it bound along the fairway and it comes to rest in an area surrounded by 50 divots.  Wow! They hit the ball there, apparently for a reason...all of them.  Is it the best percentage location for the next shot? Is it the best angle for the next shot?  Did someone (course set up guy, course designer???) dictate that location as the best place to hit your ball?

Hey, who are you suggesting should be "locked up"?
Who is it CRAIG SWEET wants to "LOCK UP"...??

Chris Hughes

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #363 on: October 17, 2024, 11:53:51 PM »


The manner in which he consistently behaves on this board is simply obnoxious.
Says the guy doing the name-calling. ;)

THAT statement, really is something...  ;D
« Last Edit: October 18, 2024, 12:26:08 AM by Chris Hughes »
Who is it CRAIG SWEET wants to "LOCK UP"...??

Michael Felton

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #364 on: October 18, 2024, 08:55:32 AM »

Basically, low handicap players need to get within 8-10 feet to have a statistical 50% chance making a birdie putt but only get within 10-12% of the approach distance to the cup.  At 160 yards, that is 48-54 feet from the cup, almost 5-7X more likely.  Over time, the bogeys simply outweigh the birdies (I think we can all get behind that observation) no matter where you approach from.

Ditto for "challenging a fw bunker." Birdie out of the fw hazard drops to near zero, I would think, whereas bogey from a hazard chances go way, way up.  If your dispersion pattern is 10-12% off the tee for, say 280 yards, that is 28-34 yards.  And, despite many last generation pros believing it, there is no way you can "take one side out of play."  No matter where you aim, it is still 28-34 yards, total, with misses on both sides.  If you aim within 28 yards of that fw bunker, you take a chance on getting in it. 

Again, that is over time.  You can occasionally make a birdie by playing the angle at a crucial point in the match, but you should never expect it.

It's a good post, Jeff. Dispersion off the tee is normally bigger than the 10-12%, too. I don't necessarily go with Scott's 60-65 yards, but even at 40 yards, or 45… the math shifts even more in favor of the tiny or more-often-than-many-here-would-believe non-existent reward not being worth the often substantial risk.



Erik,


My mistake. I had been working with the USGA Slope guide, where they measured the 2/3 probability of hitting a target, where as users of the stat system measure 99% probability in width, equating to 60-64 yards at 300, or 20+%, plus or minus.


I wonder what the stats tell us when going from a 66% chance to a 99% chance of hitting a target doubles the required target width?


Hi Jeff - I think you're mixing up two different measures. 10% error rate is 10% either side of the target. An error of 28-34 yards is the same thing as hitting into a space 56-68 yards wide, which is pretty close to the 60-65 yard window. If you actually mean hit it into a 10% wide window, then the approach shot error should be 5% either side, which is more like 24-27 feet either side of the target in your example. 5-7% error is I think what you'd call a "good shot" on tour. It's a little hard to tell because their pin positions are so often cut so close to the edge of the green that they're not aiming at the pin. That means you have to guess where they were aiming to figure out how much spread they had and they won't all have the same target.


Fawcett does have some pictures floating around of an island green par 3 where the pin was right in the middle of the green. I think it was about 180 yards and the shot pattern covers the entire green with some in the water. Those ones in the water are clearly (by tour standards) poor shots, but even excluding the obvious outliers, the scatter is surprisingly big.


65 yards wide at 300 yards for PGA Tour players is roughly 95%, not 99%. They will on average miss that window around 2-3 times in a 72 hole event. The idea is that when those shots happen, you take your medicine. Avoiding that ever happening would be too conservative and you'd give up too much in approach shot differences on the other 50-55 shots

Jeff_Brauer

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #365 on: October 18, 2024, 09:29:24 AM »
Michael,


The % I am referring to is the entire width of the dispersion zone, not the % of times you might miss.  But you are correct in that if I deem my tee shot width dispersion as 64 yards, I will aim 32 yards away from a hazard in the LZ.


I will also agree that a player using this system might not use their entire dispersion pattern as a guide, i.e., some might use 95% vs a near absolute certainty of 99% in picking their own level of "outlier" shots.  99% is probably not used all that often.
Jeff Brauer, ASGCA Director of Outreach

Charlie Goerges

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #366 on: October 18, 2024, 10:55:48 AM »
I also believe that the statistics might show that angles don't matter in part because there isn't much strategy built into most courses (and it's pretty weak when it is included).

That doesn't bear out. Over the years I've been sharing what the data shows, I've asked for people to give me examples. I think I may have given more examples of holes where it can matter (the first at Royal Melbourne in the Presidents Cup) than others.

This is where I have some trouble with the data as described. And please bear with me here, because this is hard to put into words. I feel like we're talking about two very different datasets here and that there are multiple possible interpretations.

The first one, and what I was referring to above is that larger dataset of large numbers of golfers playing many different golf courses that is often referred to as "millions of shots". This is that vast dataset you refer to. I accept these numbers and your general interpretation of them, with the caveat that most golf courses don't feature a lot of strategy at all, so, to me, of course it will show that angles don't matter (very much).

Now your rejoinder to that was that even on what most would consider a highly strategic hole like the first at RMGC Composite, there is no statistical advantage to angles shown in play in the Presidents Cup. Again, I believe your statistics are accurate and believe your interpretation to be accurate. But my issue is the population of golfers represented in the data. These are the most elite golfers imaginable. Nothing like average golfers on average courses that represent the vast majority of the millions of shots referenced above. In other words, it's not quite an apples to apples comparison to me. (In still other words, for the elite players, yes angles don't matter in most cases)

So, what would be most convincing to me is if we could be shown the statistics of the millions of shots of the whole spectrum of golfers only on holes that are clearly built to the strategic style. I don't know if that has been done yet or if it can be done yet. I realize someone would need to decide what holes are truly strategic, I'd trust any of the architects on this board to make that determination.

Whatever such data would show, I understand that angles matter somewhat less than I used to think they did, and I'm using that knowledge to play more consistent golf now by being more cautious, suffering fewer penalty strokes and making fewer dumb mistakes and shooting similar scores to what I did when I was a better player. And yet, because I'm a low-ball, low-spin player (rolling ball) at this point in my life, even on the low caliber of courses I tend to play, I come across one or two shots a round that could really be considered strategic and I greatly enjoy playing them, even when I'm not really able to always take advantage, which is what I referring to in the item below.



But the relatively small number of times that I encounter real strategy (challenge the hazard to have an easier subsequent shot) it's been refreshing, even when I can't quite execute.

This is often demonstrated to be wrong for two reasons:

First, the benefit is often not nearly as large as people perceive. I've shared the charts from PGA Tour players showing their play from the "better" side of the fairway to a tucked pin, and the scoring is almost exactly the same as they do from the bad side and the center of the fairway. The data is consistent with even 10 handicappers, too. The fairway — anywhere in the fairway — is almost always about the same, and better than anywhere in the rough (comparing the same distances, that is).

Second, nobody's even really saying the first thing, because sometimes there is an advantage to being over there. The problem is, by aiming for that side, you're bringing more trouble into play. Let's say it's just a fairway with rough: you're better off aiming for the middle, and accepting your fortune when your ball finds the "better" left side over the "worse" right side. But even on that hole, if you aim for the left side, you're going to end up in the rough more often, and the rough from the "better" side is still often worse than the fairway from the "worse" side. The risk is often not worth the reward.

Angles matter… visually. Artistically. But, in terms of scoring, angles matter very seldom, and almost exclusively when the ball is rolling. This requires either firm conditions, lower ball speed players, recovery shots from bad places, extreme width, or a combo of two or more. A rolling ball interacts with the architecture.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2024, 11:05:41 AM by Charlie Goerges »
Severally on the occasion of everything that thou doest, pause and ask thyself, if death is a dreadful thing because it deprives thee of this. - Marcus Aurelius

Ally Mcintosh

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Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #367 on: October 18, 2024, 02:53:33 PM »
Far too balanced a response for this thread, Charlie.

Ian_L

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Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #368 on: October 18, 2024, 03:31:15 PM »
Charlie, I had nearly the identical thought today, thank you for taking the time to write it out more currently then I would have.


I would love to see this for a course like Pacific Dunes. On #6, I'd have to imagine that a tee shot played down the right side of the fairway would yield a significant advantage over a shot down the left. That hole is probably a true outlier and an extreme example of angles actually mattering.


I'd be even more curious to see results for holes 2, 3, 4, 9 (upper green), 12, 15, 16, where I perceive there to be a distinct "better angle" from one side of the fairway, in the traditional sense. I'm guessing that some but not all of these holes would show an advantage for one side of the fairway that might be worth at least shading towards when aiming off the tee. Probably not worth aiming closer to the cliff on 4, but might be worth aiming down the right side on 9 to an upper green.


I think links golf and lower trajectory hitters make it much more likely that angles matter, at least on a few holes in a round.

Ira Fishman

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Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #369 on: October 18, 2024, 03:59:50 PM »
Charlie, Ally, and Ian,


100% spot on, particularly the point that lumping all courses together is both a quantitative and logical error. Erik inevitably will tell us that angles do matter for shots on the ground, certain wind conditions, and the like. In other words, the exceptions swallow the rule, but the rule is the rule because the data is the data, except when it is not.


Ira

Ian_L

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Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #370 on: October 18, 2024, 05:46:21 PM »
Thanks Ira, although I don't think anything I am saying is refuting Erik's points. That said, I haven't read all 15 pages of this thread...

I believe Erik acknowledges that angles very rarely do matter in high-level golf. And that they matter more, although still very little, the more the ball runs (due to turf or type of golfer). I am just hoping there is more specific real-world data to help us figure out where that line is for the average-ish golfer. Presumably Arccos and others have a few thousand rounds on a course like Pacific Dunes (or pick another course with lots of strategic interest).

Ira Fishman

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Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #371 on: October 19, 2024, 02:34:48 PM »

From our friend Peter Pallotta:


Set aside for a moment the question of whether there are strokes to be gained by *intentionally* aiming for one side of a fairway over another.
The question remains: is there any advantage to be had, on occasion, from *accidentally* finding oneself on one side of the fairway instead of the other?
Well, to that point: since for most of us, dispersion is a reality both in terms of left-to-right misses as well us short-to-long misses, I would much rather be approaching a green from the angle at which it opens up to me rather than from the one the forces me to fly my approach shot over a bunker or pond.
In the first case, if (as is a common occurrence) I hit it slightly fat or misjudge the strength of the wind against or the degree of elevation change, I will end up short -- but still on or near the front of the green, and so a two putt par is still possible; while in the second case, that same (common) mishit or miscalculation will mean I land in the bunker or the pond, which makes a bogey quite likely.
Which means that, for me, an average golfer, angles *do* matter, and can lead to me shooting lower scores, even if I got to the better approach angle *accidentally*.
But, and this is the essence of it all: IF those ideal approach angles that matter and that can lower my scores are accessed accidentally, then they also must matter and serve as potential stroke savers if accessed intentionally.
That is: the green contours and green-side hazards don't change one tiny bit, nor care one iota in any way whatsoever, whether I am hitting my approach shot from a helpful angle on purpose-and-through-skill, or merely by happenstance-and-a-lucky-break.The golf course design does not judge my character or choices; it only embraces or rejects the shots I actually hit. 
Whether one particular golfer should, in any specific instance, actually try to get his tee ball to one side of the fairway instead of another is a totally different question. I can always look at a golf hole from the tee and *hope* that I will find my tee ball having come to rest at an ideal angle of approach.

Mike_Clayton

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Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #372 on: October 19, 2024, 07:00:52 PM »
Not sure how relevant this is - but Hal Sutton recently did a Golf.Com interview.


"I have some regrets and made some mistakes when I first started. I started out hot with a PGA Championship and a Players title but a veteran player I respected told me I didn't know how to play for money. I asked him what he meant and he said I didn't know how to play percentage golf and earn good checks when you didn't win




"How did that affect you?"


"I took my foot off the accelerator on the course and put my foot on the brake and stated to play percentage golf, which I regret. As a result I shot a lot less scores in the 80s but nobody really cares about that. I didn't win as much."

Ally Mcintosh

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #373 on: October 20, 2024, 03:56:17 AM »

From our friend Peter Pallotta:


Set aside for a moment the question of whether there are strokes to be gained by *intentionally* aiming for one side of a fairway over another.
The question remains: is there any advantage to be had, on occasion, from *accidentally* finding oneself on one side of the fairway instead of the other?
Well, to that point: since for most of us, dispersion is a reality both in terms of left-to-right misses as well us short-to-long misses, I would much rather be approaching a green from the angle at which it opens up to me rather than from the one the forces me to fly my approach shot over a bunker or pond.
In the first case, if (as is a common occurrence) I hit it slightly fat or misjudge the strength of the wind against or the degree of elevation change, I will end up short -- but still on or near the front of the green, and so a two putt par is still possible; while in the second case, that same (common) mishit or miscalculation will mean I land in the bunker or the pond, which makes a bogey quite likely.
Which means that, for me, an average golfer, angles *do* matter, and can lead to me shooting lower scores, even if I got to the better approach angle *accidentally*.
But, and this is the essence of it all: IF those ideal approach angles that matter and that can lower my scores are accessed accidentally, then they also must matter and serve as potential stroke savers if accessed intentionally.
That is: the green contours and green-side hazards don't change one tiny bit, nor care one iota in any way whatsoever, whether I am hitting my approach shot from a helpful angle on purpose-and-through-skill, or merely by happenstance-and-a-lucky-break.The golf course design does not judge my character or choices; it only embraces or rejects the shots I actually hit. 
Whether one particular golfer should, in any specific instance, actually try to get his tee ball to one side of the fairway instead of another is a totally different question. I can always look at a golf hole from the tee and *hope* that I will find my tee ball having come to rest at an ideal angle of approach.


I miss Peter’s contributions here.


But this thread has always just been about the second shot. The reference to the drive is that it’s not worth chasing the better angle for the second shot. It doesn’t matter if you end up in the “correct” spot by skill or by luck, as Peter correctly states.


Angles just matter less than we think for the second shot (they can matter).


I would even argue that the pre-occupation with angles for the approach shot has - counterintuitively - led architects to produce any number of boring course layouts chasing strategy 101. I.e. repeatedly using “bunker inside dogleg, bunker outside angled green” on par-4 holes…. Of course, it’s all in the execution but a lot of true strategy comes about by chance or by extreme cases.


All of the above doesn’t mean architects should stop building angled strategy in to their approach shots, just that they shouldn’t be a slave to simple notions of it. Also, just because angles actually matter less than we think for scoring, I suspect we reach that scoring average in different ways (hard angle plays more conservative, easy angle plays more aggressively, sometimes winning, sometimes losing but averaging the same). I know for sure that at Portmarnock, it still matters mentally to me where I come in from, even if I realise I’m probably over-emphasising the effect.




Mark_Fine

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Re: “Angles Don’t Matter”
« Reply #374 on: October 20, 2024, 08:48:54 AM »
Crazy to see this thread up to 15 pages  :o


Of course angles matter especially on any well designed golf course from the time one tees off until they hole their putt.


We have all seen golfers (or done so ourselves) tee off from one side of the teeing area vs another!  We have all seen golfers (or done so ourselves) short side our approach shot to where getting up and down is extremely difficult.  We have all seen golfers (or done so ourselves) left ourselves with a putt on the wrong side of the hole or on the wrong side of a particular green contour that makes the putt far more challenging.


Angles matter and all good courses are designed with them in mind from tee to green surface.