I'm surprised to have not seen any commentary on Mark Broadie's most recent white paper
Impact of Distance Changes in Professional Golf, With a Focus on the ShotLink EraA few bullet points from the study, but the TLDR:
While the importance of every other category has fallen, the importance of driving has increased over the last two decades
Scoring and breakdown by shot category over the period 2006-2022Round score and course yardage trends
• Round scores declined at a rate of 0.43 strokes per decade
• Average actual yardage increased at a rate of 40 yards per decade
• Yardage increase slowed round score decrease by 0.17 strokes per decade
• Round scores at the same yardage would have declined 0.60 strokes per decade
Decomposition of constant-yardage score trends by shot category
• Round scores: −0.60 strokes per decade
• Driving: −0.26 strokes per decade
• Non-driving shots: −0.34 strokes per decade (approach: −0.18 strokes per decade; short game: 0.02 strokes per decade; putting: −0.18 strokes per decade)
Scoring advantage of top players by shot category over the period 2006-2022Top 40 SG total players scoring advantage over the period 2006-2022
• Driving accounts for 28% of the scoring advantage of the top players
• Approach shot accounts for 36% of the scoring advantage of the top players
• Short game and putting accounts for 36% of the scoring advantage of the top players
• Round scores at the same yardage would have declined 0.60 strokes per decade
Trends in the scoring advantage of the top 40 SG total players
• The scoring advantage due to driving has increased by 4.5% per decade (and is statistically significant)
• The scoring advantage due to approach shots has decreased by 2.4% per decade (and is statistically significant)
• The scoring advantage due to short game and putting has decreased slightly (and neither is statistically significant)