I was interested to see that for a few of the years, the scoring average was lower for the layup crew than the go-for-it guys. In 2009 and 2013, those hitting it under 255 off the tee scored better than those who hit if further. In some other years, it was close to a wash: 2018, 2011, 2012, and 2014.
2010 was the only year where this data is kept where more layed up than went for it. Way back in 2008, 345 went for it vs 86 who layed up, so this isn't a super recent phenomenon.
One other factor that could complicate the analysis is that players tend to play to their strengths. So, the guys with less power and better wedge games may pick the layup strategy and the guys with power to spare, pick the go-for-it strategy. So if all those layup guys decided to go for it, they may actually have a worse outcome. Over time, the tour is getting filled will more power hitters, so if players play to their strengths, a larger and larger percentage of the field would find that strategy beneficial to them.
It's interesting looking at a guy like Furyk who has played in this tourney every year except 2016 in the data. He goes for it on this hole about 40% of the time. When he lays up, he averages 3.87, which is better than the portion of the field that goes for it. When he goes for it, he does even better with a 3.67 ave and has eagled it a couple times. He may very well be intelligently picking when the conditions suit one decision over the other (wind, turf conditions, pin position, etc).
Another example of an accuracy/ good short game guy is Brian Gay. He averages 3.86 on layups and 3.80 when he challenges it.