[Derek Deschler]

      In the next one hundred years, sea level is predicted to rise over two feet along U.S. coasts, storms are predicted to become worse, and soil erosion will become greater because of global warming. (USEPA 2003)  Links courses will most definitely be effected negatively if these changes occurr as predicted.  Are greenskeepers and superintendents of links courses worried or prepared for these changes?  And are there any preventative measures or strategies to combat the negative effects?  Are these predicted changes of great significance in the minds of links course greenskeepers?

[A.G._Crockett]

Derek
You may have asked the wrong group for an answer to this.  Most of the patrons of this website believe that global warning is at best a rumor, and at worst a vast liberal conspiracy.

Now, if you'll excuse me, its 75 degrees here in Georgia on Nov. 21, and I'm going to play golf.

[blasbe1]

Since Earth Science in the 8th grade (approximately) 18 years ago I've heard that within 50-100 years Fire Island (barrier island between long island south shore and a. ocean) would be gone.  The storms do their damage to homes over their but I don't see anyone heading for the hills just yet.  Please understand I have no scientific info. on the subject.  

[Steve Lang]

 

I'm not in denial about global warming, or man's impact on speeding it up.. its just that its been happening for about the last 10,000 years..

[Kelly_Blake_Moran]

Trying to hold back a 2 foot rise in sea level would be something to witness.  I think it bodes well for golf course architects!  Here's to restoring Classic Courses!

[A_Clay_Man]

While PBGnotLinks may not be fit the category, the Japanese did build a lovely retaining wall along the ninth and tenth. It is mostly invisible.

But seriously, what about the effect of the earth's magnetic field in the midst of reversal of polarity?

[Steve Lang]

   

Adam,

You mean when the water goes down the drain spinning in the opposite direction than it had for each hemisphere?  

[A.G._Crockett]

Derek,
I told you so...

[Steve Lang]

 

AG get out of the office and go play.. I'm right behind ya!

[ChasLawler]

Derek - a topic similar to this was discussed a little while ago. Do a search on global waming on the search page, and you'll find some info.

Here's something I found:
http://www.golfclubatlas.com/forums2/index.php?board=1;action=display;threadid=6056;start=msg115246#msg115246

[Dan Kelly]

Most of the patrons of this website believe that global warning is at best a rumor, and at worst a vast liberal conspiracy.

Now, if you'll excuse me, its 75 degrees here in Georgia on Nov. 21, and I'm going to play golf.

A._G._C... --

Not to be a smart-aleck, but ... well, OK, being a smart-aleck:

I certainly hope the scientific analysis that convinced you of the reality of "global warming" was somewhat more rigorous than the research (!) that led to your proclamation about the views of "most of the patrons of this website," and somewhat less anecdotal than your thermometer readings there in Georgia!

No longer being a smart-aleck -- and asking not just you, but anyone who's convinced of the reality of global warming (I, personally, haven't yet felt qualified to draw any firm conclusions):

What was the research that led you to that conclusion?

Dan

[A.G._Crockett]

Dan
"Most" could exclude anyone who feels that they want to be excluded, but it was really just intended to be a lighthearted warning to a new poster about the RELATIVELY conservative view of environmental issues vis a vis golf courses and golf course construction that TENDS to hold sway on this site, at least by raw numbers of posters.  The current temperature here is indeed anecdotal, and was intended for humor through irony only.

One recent example of evidence for global warming, however, would be the NASA report that the Artic ice sheet has been reduced by over 60%, and their estimate that we are only a few years away from NO Arctic ice sheet during the summer months, with concommitant rise in sea levels.  (I wish that I could remember the exact number of years; a number was given in their report.) That does NOT speak to the causes of global warming, only to the reality of it, especially given that NASA would rarely be identified with the Sierra Club, Greenpeace, or other such groups on the left end of the political/environmental spectrum.

[Mike Vegis @ Kiawah]

If you look at the numbers from the time that records have been kept, you'll see a noticeable upswing.  The reason--we're still coming out of the last ice age.  The relative small impact that humans can produce, one way or another, won't change the normal oscillations of the world's weather patterns over the long term...

[RJ_Daley]

With all of the loss of the ice sheet already reported, where is the corresponding rise in ocean water levels?  When that big sheet broke off Antartica a few years ago and was floating away and melting, was there any measurable rise in water levels?  What if all the polar ice melted?  Could it disapate into the fissures at the ocean floor, and be absorbed by the earth and other earth processes?  If I put icecubes in my drink, it rises the level, but it doesn't get more full as time passes by and the cubes melt...although not that much time generally passes in my drinks...

[James Edwards]

Welcome to the website Derek..  Hows the Masters programme coming along?

My opinion is that you can't beat nature at its own game..  What will be will be..  You may be able to postpone the inevitable but it will find a way around our feable attempts to contain sooner or later..  

[astavrides]

Dan,

Let me answer your question as well:

The theory is that the earth is warming due in large part to man's increased release of so-called greenhouse gases (CO2, methane, etc.)  into the atmosphere.

In science, one cannot prove a theory, but can only provide data that supports it (e.g., the aforementioned polar ice loss, 1998 being the hottest year on record and the top 10 hottest years of the 20th century being after 1980).

So the simple answer is that nobody has provided much peer-reviewed data that refutes it.  in fact, there is a scientific consensus (e.g., national academy of sciences 2000 report, 1995 UN sponsered effort of 2500 climate scientists, etc) that believes it will not be refuted.

the fossil fuel and nuclear industries among others have large financial interest in creating doubt about the global warming theory.  the global penalty is much higher for waiting too long to do anything about it, than it is for potentially erring on the side of caution.   besides, links golf is the best golf around.

[astavrides]

  Antartica is, of course, a rocky land mass above sea level, covered by very thick ice.  If the ice on top of it melts, or warms, so that it evaporates more easily, then this water or water vapor becomes part of the water that is now available to increase the sea level.

perhaps the greater effect on sea level is that liquids expand when their temperture increases.

[ian]

The biggest problem with the model that predicts global warming, and the ramifications you suggest, is that once again the science used to create the model has come into question.

Only a few weeks ago an independent audit of the Koyoto models proved that there was imput errors and incorrect assumptions before 1850 (accurate data was recorded after that date). Whta it did was create a massive end spike, that when corrected looks more like a drunken but level line. While we are up in current times, we still do not match an incredibly warmer spell more that a 100 years ago. The result of this audit (by science not industry I might add), was that the model Koyoto was based upon was inaccurate; and that current assumptions of global warming can not be currently proved.

I do believe we will pay for our enviornmental choices, I'm just not as convinced on the truth of global warming. So don't sweat the seaside courses disappearing in 100 years.

Ian

[RJ_Daley]

I predict that in 100 years there will be many more golf courses seaside than there are today.  I believe we may loose a few of them, like Pebble Beach to seawall failures.  In that case, I believe the loss will be mitigated by them tearing down homes or some such to move the lost affected holes more inland.  However, as a global proposition, I worry not one bit that we will have anywhere near a net loss of golf courses on the ocean.  As proof of this trend, I can't really think of one loss of an oceanside course that is links, dunesland, tidewater basin or any such.  However, I can think of many new ones that have been developed that are on (or within a driver distance from the ocean).  For starters, Friars Head, Bandon-Pacific dunes, Cape Kidnappers, coming soon, Barnbougle, Doonbeg, Kingsbarnes, Kiawah, The Bridge, Atlantic Club, Half Moon Bay Ocean, Ocean Trails, yada yada yada.  Granted one of them slipped into the drink , but it is still a net gain...

[Steve_ Shaffer]

I just purchased a nice oceanfront lot in Scottsdale!

[paul cowley]

...derek
of all the links courses i am familar with ,a two ft rise in the oceans level would have no or little effect....maybe pebbles 17 and 18 ,but to raise them two ft to compensate would not be prohibitive.....the principles of soil erosion would be the same ,regardless of global warming...haven't played the ocean course at kiawah,but a seawall might suffice.
most coastal courses built in the us are at a minimum elevation of 6 to 7 ft above sea level..............i would be more worried about venice.

[George_Bahto]

damn - should have dug those bunker drain lines deeper

guess i should get the plumber in to dig the a deeper sump pump hole in the cellar

hey - i'm selling and moving to higher ground

[A_Clay_Man]

Sorry my memory is so flawed but there was a thread a few years ago that mentioned some unusually wet conditions and speculated if this was a sign of GW. Maybe Sandwich?? I just don't remember. Tony Ristola will remember and hopefully will have a follow-up??

The links will be where the first signs of rising oceans should be felt, if at all.

But I was serious, Didn't anybody see Nova this week? The polarity of the earth is shifting.

[Daryl "Turboe" Boe]

Dan,

Let me answer your question as well:

The theory is that the earth is warming due in large part to man's increased release of so-called greenhouse gases (CO2, methane, etc.)  into the atmosphere.

Alex,

You are right, however what you may want to do about it instead of trying to shut down business or taking my SUV is just call Terminex.

"The single largest source of greenhouse my well be termites, whose digestive activities are responsible for about 50 Billion tons of CO2 and Methane annually.  This is 10 times more than the the present world production of CO2 from burning of all fossil fuels."

Of course I didnt mention that behind termites one of the biggest offenders is that same digestion and flatulence only this time from cows.  I didnt mention it because most of the same people that want to take away my SUV also would probably prefer that they take away my steak also.

[peter_p]

A bigger worry is the effect that melting of sea ice, glaciers, etc has on changing salinity levels in the oceans and that impact on major currents such as the gulf stream.  

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