Retyping my answer from the center of the green thread, but for strategic golfers, I think it's a legit question.
That is, exactly when is the risk of a bold shot worth it? Yes, Joe H lays out the case for it being just plain fun for some to aim at every flag, and it can be, but for those playing for score, or those down to just a few balls in their bag
, I doubt that idea holds.
I would love to hear from both the stats guys and a wide range of golfers.
Just some random thoughts, but while Mac and others mentioned golfers playing within their skill level and paying the price for exceeding it, I suspect that as we know more about golf statistically, that for average golfers, hitting for the middle (or as far away from trouble as the design allows) is the highest percentage play in almost every case.
I suspect it is for better players, to a lesser degree, i.e., like a football coach rarely going for it on 4th down and 2.
Similarly, would a bold, heroic option on the first hole be as tempting as the same option on 15-18 where a score or match might be decided? I would guess most folks play the first few holes a bit defensively to avoid bogey, and that risk is more tempting later in the round if you are really thinking about it. There is the old philosophy that if you make a bogey, then you need to make two birdies to get to -1.
Intuitively, it makes sense to me that risk holes are better later in the round when you may really need to make up that extra stroke, on par 5 holes, where you have a chance to gain 2 strokes. It also makes sense to think like pros think, and as a gca, plot a random placement of easier holes where taking the risk makes sense, vs harder ones designed so taking a risk doesn't make sense, i.e., reward the player who wisely picks the right spots.
As mentioned, there are probably some stats available now that might shed some light on this, at least for pros, and of course, even good ams would probably benefit from playing more conservatively for best score, but that may vary from skill set to skill set, i.e., good putters might be tempted to play safe and accept longer putts, etc.