Predictions for the Womens US Open at Olympic

[Joel_Stewart]

Given that only 4 men have broken par at Olympic during the 4 US Opens, what's your prediction for the Women?


Course is going to play at around 6,500 yards.


Weather is going to cool, in the 50s and 60s.


There is no graduated rough.


My guess is 5 over par with multiple rounds in the 80s and even a 90 or so if they don't WD.


https://www.golfdigest.com/story/uswomensopen2021-setup-rough-angela-stanford-olympic-club

[Tim Passalacqua]

Given that only 4 men have broken par at Olympic during the 4 US Opens, what's your prediction for the Women?


Course is going to play at around 6,500 yards.


Weather is going to cool, in the 50s and 60s.


There is no graduated rough.


My guess is 5 over par with multiple rounds in the 80s and even a 90 or so if they don't WD.


https://www.golfdigest.com/story/uswomensopen2021-setup-rough-angela-stanford-olympic-club

I like this guess, especially with the cool weather.  It’s real Daly City weather for this time of year.  I’ll never forget in 2012, the guys had great weather, maybe a few days in the 70s.....in June.  That rarely happens.

[Joe Bausch]

Angela Stanford on the challenge:


https://www.golfdigest.com/story/uswomensopen2021-setup-rough-angela-stanford-olympic-club

[David_Tepper]

"There is no graduated rough."

While there is no "first cut," according to the tablet the walking scorers will be using there are two levels of rough.

[David_Tepper]

Here are some comments about the course from Brian Thompson, a former assistant pro at Olympic. I heard he will be caddying for Amari Avery this week.

https://btplayingthru.substack.com/p/us-womens-open-preview?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo3NjA0ODE1LCJwb3N0X2lkIjozNzEyNjIxMSwiXyI6Imx6ZkpDIiwiaWF0IjoxNjIyNjc3MDA0LCJleHAiOjE2MjI2ODA2MDQsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0zMjc2NjUiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.HqURBIjDLQfvaMAqFXLo7fSjk8zryjCl2ahq_3KzGZs

At one time Brian was a very good player and finished runner-up to Xander Schauffele by a couple of shots in the Cal State Open.

[Tom_Doak]

It sounds like they are trying to show off Olympic for what I think of it. 


Unfortunately, that's not good!

[Tim Leahy]

Only one fairway trap is going to help the straight hitting LPGA pros. I can see them surprising everyone and having multiple under par scorers.

[Mark_Fine]

The winning score will be over par!  I would take +4 now if given and watch everyone struggle. 

[Peter Pallotta]

Maybe the writer got it wrong, but in a recent Golf Digest article it notes that amateur phenom and 1st year Stanford great Rachel Heck will play in the U.S. Women’s Open at The Olympic Club outside San Francisco, "where earlier this month she shot a 66 to win the U.S. Open Collegiate Invitational."

Is that simply incorrect information, or can a USGA 'set up' make such a big difference, ie from 66s to 76s and beyond?

And if so, more to the point, why? I'd love to see Olympic play in way that makes room for the best in the world to shoot a 66.

[David_Tepper]

Only 4 men have broken par over 5 US Opens.

Peter P. -

Yes, Rachel Heck shot 66. I also heard she chipped in 3 times during that round. How often is that going to happen?

I remember a college golfer (Isiah Salinda, I think) shot 61 (or maybe it was a 62) in a major amateur tournament there a few years ago.

Yes, I think the USGA set-up (deeper rough, firmer & faster greens, tougher pin positions, etc.) plus the pressure of playing in a major can make a big difference in the scores.

We will find out soon enough.

DT

[Tim Passalacqua]

Maybe the writer got it wrong, but in a recent Golf Digest article it notes that amateur phenom and 1st year Stanford great Rachel Heck will play in the U.S. Women’s Open at The Olympic Club outside San Francisco, "where earlier this month she shot a 66 to win the U.S. Open Collegiate Invitational."

Is that simply incorrect information, or can a USGA 'set up' make such a big difference, ie from 66s to 76s and beyond?

And if so, more to the point, why? I'd love to see Olympic play in way that makes room for the best in the world to shoot a 66.

Yes.  Not just the rough, but the firm greens.  One interesting element that people don’t mention are the approach shots on the holes that head south.  On these approach shots, the summer wind is down and moving left, the slope of the greens is to the left, and chances are the ball is above your feet.  On these firm greens, you are really going to want to work the ball into the wind and slope of the green.  It’s the only way to control it when it lands.  Also, the firmness and speed of the greens make it crucial to get the ball on the low side and leave a putt or chip up the hill.   A lot of the time, you want to be on the low side of the fairway working your approach up and into the slopes.  Rough, firm & fast greens, and the coastal breeze will be a huge difference.  Even under normal conditions, I am shocked to see people go low.  I could never believe Jim Gallagher’s 63 at the Tour Championship!

[Peter Pallotta]

Thanks, David. (And thanks much Tim, just saw your post now)

I asked not to focus on the 66 per se (ie she would have shot a good score even without the chip ins) but because like the vast majority of golfers, I only know Olympic through a 'USGA championship lens'. And that's a shame, ie that a course I find so interesting for its canted San Francisco aesthetics and unique challenges is -- championship after championship and decade after decade -- reduced to being a sheer torture test for the world's best.

It's a bummer that the championship committees continue to be so static and one dimensional in their thinking. If there are good scores to be shot at Olympic, at least occasionally, then let the best try to shoot them.

I'd like to see what the course is like under those conditions, and it's not like anyone/the field is going to shoot lights out over 4 rounds anyway.

[David_Tepper]

Peter P. -

Here are all the scores from the Pacific Coast Amateur held at Olympic in 2018. Isaiah Salinda won with 272 (-12). He shot 62 (not 61) in the 3rd round. He also had a 71 and a 72. Collin Morikawa was T5 with 278 (-6).


https://pcga-2018pacificcoastamateurchampionship.golfgenius.com/pages/4428007064459022135 


DT

[Tim Passalacqua]

Thanks, David. (And thanks much Tim, just saw your post now)

I asked not to focus on the 66 per se (ie she would have shot a good score even without the chip ins) but because like the vast majority of golfers, I only know Olympic through a 'USGA championship lens'. And that's a shame, ie that a course I find so interesting for its canted San Francisco aesthetics and unique challenges is -- championship after championship and decade after decade -- reduced to being a sheer torture test for the world's best.

It's a bummer that the championship committees continue to be so static and one dimensional in their thinking. If there are good scores to be shot at Olympic, at least occasionally, then let the best try to shoot them.

I'd like to see what the course is like under those conditions, and it's not like anyone/the field is going to shoot lights out over 4 rounds anyway.

You are right.  Too many people know it only through a USGA lens.  On a regular basis, the Lake is a treat.  Fairways are 35+ yards wide.  The rough is kept really short and playable.....1-1 1/2 inches.  The playing corridors are plenty wide.  TV makes it look ridiculously tight.  I just played it 3 days in a row and only had to hit 1 shot from the trees.  I have always thought the Lake never gets enough credit.  It is on a wonderful piece of hilly property.  The routing is one of the most unique in the game.  The way the Lake works across the hill is fantastic, instead of having holes that are just uphill and downhill.  It presents it own feel and challenge......and there is nothing like it in golf.  Just play it up tee from what you normally would.  Most guys probably play blues at 6600 (which probably plays closer to 7000) and get a little beat up.  Play the whites and have a blast. It’s just great place to spend a day on the course!

[Terry Lavin]

-4

[Jeff Schley]

Only played it once, but it will be a brutal test for the ladies. I'm predicting -1, as these ladies are very good.

[Jason Thurman]

On a regular basis, the Lake is a treat.  Fairways are 35+ yards wide.  The rough is kept really short and playable.....1-1 1/2 inches.  The playing corridors are plenty wide.  TV makes it look ridiculously tight.  I just played it 3 days in a row and only had to hit 1 shot from the trees.  I have always thought the Lake never gets enough credit.  It is on a wonderful piece of hilly property.  The routing is one of the most unique in the game.  The way the Lake works across the hill is fantastic, instead of having holes that are just uphill and downhill.  It presents it own feel and challenge......and there is nothing like it in golf.  Just play it up tee from what you normally would.  Most guys probably play blues at 6600 (which probably plays closer to 7000) and get a little beat up.  Play the whites and have a blast. It’s just great place to spend a day on the course!

THIS gets at a little of what I remember from 2012 (my only real exposure to Olympic). Architecturally, I had low expectations for that Open since it came in the middle of what was otherwise a who's who of courses I really wanted to see pros tackle, and I just didn't know anything about Olympic by comparison. But the course really had character! I remember really loving the way it used its topography to create funky tests of driving and approach accuracy.


I didn't totally know what to think of all of it, but that's the great thing about great courses, right? The way they capture your interest and keep you thinking. I don't suspect I'd love absolutely everything about Olympic, but where I didn't expect to be compelled by the 2012 men's Open, I very much look forward to watching the women play this week.

[Tommy Williamsen]

+2

[Joel_Stewart]

I walked Olympic today during the first round.


My initial thought was the rough in the fairways isn't that bad. I saw a friend of mine who is on the executive committee of the USGA and he said they had to cut it down in length.  You definitely can advance the ball but do these women have the club speed and strength to advance the ball to the green?  The rough around the greens seemed higher and more difficult.


The greens are running 12-13 and I thought the pin placements were very fair.


The tees.  They really do play the ladies tees.  On certain holes they could not move the tees any further forward. Olympic has 4 and 5 sets of tees and they played it up. Only on the 1st hole was it all the way back. 18 which has a small tee, it was placed in the middle.


The bunkers at Olympic are terrible in shape and depth.  (I really hope Gil Hanse restores these.)  With that said, these women are great bunker players and the few bunker shots I saw they got it up and down.


The USGA puts on a great event. With the limited attendance, free parking on the Ocean course, no corporate tents, it was great to get around.

[Garland Bayley]

-4

I'm thinking this is a good estimate. So I will take -5.

[jeffwarne]

Am I the only one who enjoys watching Olympic on TV?
I also enjoyed it the one time I played it nearly 30 years ago.
I know Olympic has had its(Open Dr.) renovation issues, but it comes across far better than the homogenous week in week out images we get from the PGA Tour.
I'm sure it can and will get better in the future.


I'm also enjoying seeing less of the overdone "chipping areas' we see so much of these days.
Contrary to popular belief, there is skill identification in judging and playing shots from greenside rough, rather than watching endless putters or hybrids(no problem with variety, I just feel the pendulum has swung too far)
Nostalgia perhaps.
As someone who has been critical of many USGA setups, it's nice to see them playing on grass that isn't on the edge of death, and the balls not wobbling plinkolike on the greens.


Certainly the TV experience is far better than watching MV, which always screams "sterile,"fair", monochromatic color,modern look(as in 1970's) and agronomy "advances" at me.

[David_Tepper]

This afternoon I was "inside the ropes" as a walking scorer for the group of Celine Boutier, Meghan Kang and Mi Jung Hur. They teed off on #9 at 1:36pm.

As Joel S. has noted, the tees were up on a number of holes and the rough, at least the rough that was inside the ropes, was not too severe at all. The pin positions were fairly accessible.
Most of the fairways were cut wider than I expected. In general, the playing corridors on the Lake at Olympic are far wider than they look on TV. I think the tall trees that line the holes make the corridors look narrower than they really are.

I doubt the course will play any easier than it did today. Yet only 15 players broke par. I will be surprised if anyone is under par after 4 rounds.

It should be noted that the rough outside the ropes can be brutal in spots. Ms. Boutier was -3 after the first 10 holes. Playing the par-5 1st hole (as her 11th hole of the round), her tee shot landed 15-20 yards right of the ropes in some very deep rough. She took 2 swings with her wedge and advanced the ball less than a yard. She then took a penalty drop and wound up making 9! To her credit, she parred the next 7 holes to finish the round +1.   

 

[Joel_Stewart]

This afternoon I was "inside the ropes" as a walking scorer for the group of Celine Boutier, Meghan Kang and Mi Jung Hur. They teed off on #9 at 1:36pm.


It should be noted that the rough outside the ropes can be brutal in spots. Ms. Boutier was -3 after the first 10 holes. Playing the par-5 1st hole (as her 11th hole of the round), her tee shot landed 15-20 yards right of the ropes in some very deep rough. She took 2 swings with her wedge and advanced the ball less than a yard. She then took a penalty drop and wound up making 9! To her credit, she parred the next 7 holes to finish the round +1.

So as the walking scorer, do you ask her what she scored? That's a little awkward asking if she made a 9.

[David_Tepper]

"So as the walking scorer, do you ask her what she scored? That's a little awkward asking if she made a 9."

Joel S. -

A little awkward indeed!

I was pretty close to Boutier while she was struggling in the rough, so I was confident that 9 was the number. I did not ask Ms. Boutier or her caddy for confirm that. Walking off the next tee I did ask Mi Jung Hur, who was keeping Boutier's card, to confirm that 9 was correct. Within a minute of that, someone from the Golf Channel came up to me and asked me to confirm that Boutier made 9. Then I got a call on the walkie-talkie from Scoring Control asking me to walk them thru all 9 shots.

DT

[David_Tepper]

After 2 rounds there are only 11 players under par.