International Travel

[Tom_Doak]

Tom,

Isn't that what we're trying to solve with the vaccines?  Getting sick from it and being under the weather for a few days is one thing.  But requiring a trip to the ICU where you might die is an entirely different animal.

As has been mentioned, the goal has never been to eradicate it, its to gain herd immunity and not die from it...

Kalen:


Yes, that's the official American viewpoint.  But for most other countries the question is whether we might be bringing the virus with us to visit, and until their populations are protected by the vaccine, the fact that we are protected from hospitalization is not what's important to them.


Any data right now on whether the vaccine protects from mild infection or from being a carrier would be terribly incomplete, because most of the people have only been vaccinated for a few weeks, and many would not have been exposed to the virus in that time.  As people start to go back to living normally [eating out, going to events, etc.] that would be the acid test for how well the vaccines stop infection, but the CDC has decided they won't trace that.  They like the number that was printed in Michael's news story and want that to be the last word on the subject.

[Craig Disher]

Any data right now on whether the vaccine protects from mild infection or from being a carrier would be terribly incomplete, because most of the people have only been vaccinated for a few weeks, and many would not have been exposed to the virus in that time.  As people start to go back to living normally [eating out, going to events, etc.] that would be the acid test for how well the vaccines stop infection, but the CDC has decided they won't trace that.  They like the number that was printed in Michael's news story and want that to be the last word on the subject.

Sampling the people who were vaccinated as long ago as January shows that the vaccines do what they were intended to do - prevent a serious infection. Studies are ongoing to determine if the virus load a vaccinated person carries is at a level that can infect others. Where did you get the idea that the CDC wants the NYT numbers to be the last word on vaccination and infection? It's just not true. I'm sure they hope the numbers will not get worse but if they do, the CDC will report it and make appropriate recommendations.

[Tom_Doak]

Sampling the people who were vaccinated as long ago as January shows that the vaccines do what they were intended to do - prevent a serious infection. Studies are ongoing to determine if the virus load a vaccinated person carries is at a level that can infect others. Where did you get the idea that the CDC wants the NYT numbers to be the last word on vaccination and infection? It's just not true. I'm sure they hope the numbers will not get worse but if they do, the CDC will report it and make appropriate recommendations.

Hi Craig:


I linked to the CDC's statement a few posts above.  Here it is again:


https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html


The relevant part is right at the top:

As previously announced, CDC is transitioning to reporting only patients with COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection that were hospitalized or died to help maximize the quality of the data collected on cases of greatest clinical and public health importance. That change in reporting will begin on May 14, 2021. In preparation for that transition, the number of reported breakthrough cases will not be updated on May 7, 2021.


So they are not going to announce any more numbers on breakthrough infection unless those patients were hospitalized or died.  I feel like that clouds the picture of whether the vaccines are effective at keeping the virus below the level where one can infect others.

[Kalen Braley]

Sampling the people who were vaccinated as long ago as January shows that the vaccines do what they were intended to do - prevent a serious infection. Studies are ongoing to determine if the virus load a vaccinated person carries is at a level that can infect others. Where did you get the idea that the CDC wants the NYT numbers to be the last word on vaccination and infection? It's just not true. I'm sure they hope the numbers will not get worse but if they do, the CDC will report it and make appropriate recommendations.

Hi Craig:

I linked to the CDC's statement a few posts above.  Here it is again:

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

The relevant part is right at the top:

As previously announced, CDC is transitioning to reporting only patients with COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection that were hospitalized or died to help maximize the quality of the data collected on cases of greatest clinical and public health importance. That change in reporting will begin on May 14, 2021. In preparation for that transition, the number of reported breakthrough cases will not be updated on May 7, 2021.


So they are not going to announce any more numbers on breakthrough infection unless those patients were hospitalized or died.  I feel like that clouds the picture of whether the vaccines are effective at keeping the virus below the level where one can infect others.

Tom I think the answer you may be looking for is right in that statement "greatest clinical and public health importance"

Given we have well over 110+ million people currently vaccinated, its seems its both appropriate and shows wisdom that they are only tracking serious cases of people who have been vaccinated.  Yes, if they had unlimited resources and time, it would be nice to look at everything, but the goal and absolute number 1 priority remains in trying to prevent people from dying, not how many have to use a few sick days because they still contracted it after vaccination.

[Craig Disher]

Hi Craig:


I linked to the CDC's statement a few posts above.  Here it is again:


https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html


The relevant part is right at the top:

As previously announced, CDC is transitioning to reporting only patients with COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection that were hospitalized or died to help maximize the quality of the data collected on cases of greatest clinical and public health importance. That change in reporting will begin on May 14, 2021. In preparation for that transition, the number of reported breakthrough cases will not be updated on May 7, 2021.


So they are not going to announce any more numbers on breakthrough infection unless those patients were hospitalized or died.  I feel like that clouds the picture of whether the vaccines are effective at keeping the virus below the level where one can infect others.

Tom - Thanks for the reference. Sometimes it's not wise to jump into the middle of threads. The change in counting does give a more accurate statistic. Including everyone with covid symptoms without testing them for the virus would make the statistic less clear - it could include those with flu, alergies, etc. Determining whether a vaccine prevents the spreading the infection seems like a more difficult task that would require contact chaining and personal follow-up. Perhaps other countries with more centralized health care systems are trying to answer that question. In the meantime, masks do a geat job of limiting the spread.

[Mike Sweeney]

In the meantime, masks do a geat job of limiting the spread.

Craig,

These blanket statements really don't work in Covid era. I wore a mask yesterday on the NYC Subway, and will do so for the near future. Central Park, not so much.

Texas had been all over the place:

[Craig Disher]

Mike,I don't mean to slip over into politics but it's generally accepted in the medical community that a mask mandate beginning in early 2020 would have saved tens of thousands of lives. Mask protocols varied so much from state to state and even from community to community that it's risky to draw any conclusions about their effectiveness from infection rates. All I'm saying is that wearing a mask is a good thing until the pandemic is over.

[Mike Sweeney]

Craig,


Please stop with "generally accepted". That is a bureaucrats tool.

I work on the Threefold Community campus which is 200 acres in Rockland County, NY and on campus we have:

• 150 Residents in a regulated Assisted Living Facility
• 200 Students in a traditional K-12 school
• 25 Students in a Special Needs School
• 25 Participants in Work Program for mainly Autistics who all have many sensory, diet, and medical issues. My son is in this program.
• We are surrounded by a strong Hasidic population that tend to shy away from vaccines and outside "medical experts".

I have absolutely no interest in what any Politician of any party has to say about some national or state data. We are a Military Family with my son serving under a third Commander in Chief. They all have strengths and weaknesses.


I do work closely with our "on the ground" Medical team from the Assistive Living Facility. We make, change, and adjust decisions based on real world outcomes. Sure the Medical team looks at data and consul from Albany and Washington, but that is a small piece of a complicated process.


Sorry for the call out, but we need to allow people to make decisions for themselves and their local communities and families. Trying to tie everything into one package simply does not work.

[David_Tepper]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/major-airline-ceos-call-summit-speed-uk-us-travel-2021-05-11/

[Charles Lund]

As of today, I read that Ireland is now opening up to Inter-County travel.


On the other hand, the State Department STEP program sent this link related to the UK:


https://uk.usembassy.gov/covid-19-coronavirus-information/

Charles Lund

[Charles Lund]

Why are the links not included?


Charles Lund

[David_Tepper]

Charles -

Here is your link:

https://uk.usembassy.gov/covid-19-coronavirus-information/

DT

[Charles Lund]

Dave,

Thanks.  There was another link from the NYT I tried to post that showed vaccination rates by country.


What it illustrated was that many countries have low vaccination rates for a variety of reasons.  For some, there has been a low per capita case rate, also for different reasons, including early border control, lockdowns, limits on interstate travel or interprefecture travel, rapid testing and quarantine rules for positive test cases, contact tracing, and innovative mobile apps in some cases to track hotspots.


For those of us in the U.S., we were definitely in need of widespread vaccination, given the high case rates and our cultural reluctance to defer to our best public health recommendations at the time.  It appears we are going to be saddled with an unacceptably  high spread rate due to subpopulations unwilling to be vaccinated.

My sense is the problem of unvaccinated persons and media celebrities supporting vaccination avoidance would evoke a chill in people encountering overseas tourists from the U.S.  Canada still is not allowing border crossings, as I understand it.

I have as many as four destinations I would travel to overseas. I recognize the reluctance of various countries admitting U.S. residents, given the struggles and sometimes draconian interventions in some countries.  I am trying to balance realism and optimism for the next 18 months.

Charles Lund

[Dan_Callahan]

Well … maybe a bunch of people in the US will refuse to get vaccinated, but even so, today was the first day in almost a year that Massachusetts had zero covid deaths. Still a long way to go, but we’re trending in the right direction.

[Bryan Izatt]

Charles,


Yes, the Canadian land border is still theoretically closed to Americans amongst others.  You can apparently cross and get tested and quarantine for 14 days, but I believe you have to walk across the border.  I believe you could fly in and quarantine in a hotel at your expense, although it's discouraged to come at all.  Downside of the quarantine is that there are two outbreaks at quarantine hotels at the moment.  All in all it's one confused mess.


In any event golf in Ontario is closed down, stupidly, by our provincial government for probably another month as we stay-at-home ourselves out of a pretty bad third wave.


P.S. Your links are not missing, they are just so small you can't read them.  GCA often adds silly formatting to things that are copied and pasted in.  It's easily fixed if you edit the posting and press the "Toggle View" button on the far right of the second row of buttons and delete the formatting codes in the square brackets.




Dan,


Massachusetts is one of the leading states in vaccinations with 62% having received at least one dose.  Mississippi is the worst at 32%, so quite a variation amongst the states.  Interestingly the worst states are all Republican and the best states are all Democratic.  Given how the whole pandemic was politicized maybe this state of affairs is not surprising.


Perhaps the reason that most states seem to be doing relatively well in the current case counts, hospitalizations and deaths is that the US had so many cases in the second wave that a lot of people have some immunity through having had the disease.  Add those people to the vaccination numbers and the % of people protected is probably substantially higher than the vaccination rates would suggest.  Survival of the fittest seems to work although a lot of people died to get to where you are now.




Mike W,


Re your comment about vaccinated people getting a break on international travel, that would depend on some kind on international agreement on a vaccine passport.  That could take a long time and could be tough for you guys since some States, Florida comes to mind, have said that there is no way they are going to have such passports - an infringement on freedoms and privacy etc.

[Scott Warren]

In the meantime, masks do a geat job of limiting the spread.

Craig,

These blanket statements really don't work in Covid era.

I have read a lot of absurd things on this website in the last 12 years. From
The Merion threads to anything Pat Mucci posted in green ink, but this is gold medal stuff.


Fact: masks do a great job of limiting the spread of Covid.


Sincerely, from a city of five million that embraced legislated mask use and social distancing early on and is currently at 5,300 total cases (including all those in returned overseas travellers) and a grand total of 56 deaths in the 16 months since the pandemic began.


I understand and accept the US’s obsession with the idea of freedom and not being told what to do, but I can’t sit here with a straight face when people try to argue that this is also best practice for public health management.

[Kevin Pallier]

In the meantime, masks do a geat job of limiting the spread.

Craig,

These blanket statements really don't work in Covid era.

Fact: masks do a great job of limiting the spread of Covid.

Sincerely, from a city of five million that embraced legislated mask use and social distancing early on and is currently at 5,300 total cases (including all those in returned overseas travellers) and a grand total of 56 deaths in the 16 months since the pandemic began.


I understand and accept the US’s obsession with the idea of freedom and not being told what to do, but I can’t sit here with a straight face when people try to argue that this is also best practice for public health management.

Scott


Of those 5,300 cases in NSW -  close to 3,200 or 60% were sourced from International travel.


Masks help to limit the spread.

[Charles Lund]

From Bryan Izatt

"P.S. Your links are not missing, they are just so small you can't read them.  GCA often adds silly formatting to things that are copied and pasted in.  It's easily fixed if you edit the posting and press the "Toggle View" button on the far right of the second row of buttons and delete the formatting codes in the square brackets."
Thanks for the help.  I corrected on the original post.  Hope things open up in Canada and border crossing resumes. I have NEXUS and would like to see more courses in Canada.




Charles Lund

[Ally Mcintosh]

RTE news today saying there may be a chance that Ireland travel opens up to EU member states by the end of the summer but US could be 2022.


As to something Kalen said, the intent actually was to try and eradicate the disease by gaining herd immunity through vaccination. Hence why we are still referring to it as a pandemic rather than endemic.


However, because cases weren’t brought under control, more variants have been allowed to generate. The more infectious ones (e.g. The “British” variant) are the ones that become more dominant. The more infectious a variant, the higher the percentage of the population that needs to become immune to gain herd immunity and eradicate the disease. Herd immunity was expected to be reached at 60-70% with the original variant. That figure is now at around 80% because of the British variant. 80% of people (especially in the US) will not get vaccinated. Hence we will have an Endemic disease.


We are still not learning. Because Britain did not close its borders early enough to travel from India, cases are now rising again, a bigger percentage of which are attributed to the Indian Variant. This in itself indicates that it could be more transmissible than the currently dominant British variant. That 80% will rise.


This is why you all cannot and should not be travelling.


Mike W, no doubt taking numbers at face value make things look a lot scarier than they are. But you are also pulling random stats that do an equally poor job of being informative at the other end of the scale.


I stand by what I said earlier. There’s a few road bumps to go with this thing yet. I don’t envy any government that needs to find the right balance over the next year or two.

[Mike Sweeney]

I understand and accept the US’s obsession with the idea of freedom and not being told what to do, but I can’t sit here with a straight face when people try to argue that this is also best practice for public health management.

I agree. That freedom in the USA is a real problem in terms of obesity and its relation to Covid deaths. We love fast food and such here in the USA. There is an 80% correlation between Obesity and Covid deaths:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2021/03/08/cdc-overweight-and-obese-americans-make-up-vast-majority-of-coronavirus-hospitalizations/?sh=2dfc4b23d1fe


"Nearly 8 in 10 people who were hospitalized for coronavirus were either overweight or obese, according to a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study released Monday, which also found a higher body mass index is associated with serious coronavirus outcomes, such as hospitalization, being placed on a ventilator and even death."

Nobody ever talks about obesity as a HUGE problem with Covid. Modern medicine seems to have an inability to talk about Obesity. As someone who took a hard look at myself in 2015, I realized I needed to make a lifestyle change. I was still working out at the same levels, but I realized my diet could not stay the same.

With a BMI of 24.2 today, I am pretty close to gluten-free, wheat-free, dairy-free, mainly plant, fish, and some organic chicken.... Not perfect, still too much red wine, but I really have put in the effort. I have not been in a golf cart for 5+ years other than the occasional charity outing.

The human body is an amazing thing, but we really do poison it with modern processed food. Scott, if I see your pics, you are in amazing shape, so I am not calling you out in any way. We just need to have real conversations about what is going on, and obesity is not going away.

https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/08/17/15/10/obesity-and-mortality-among-patients

Obesity seems to be a little better in Oz - https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-health/overweight-and-obesity

I got rid of a doctor who told me he had "fat cells" and could not lose weight. I genuinely believe we have a Chronic condition with Obesity. Sure, Covid was bad. I live in NYC and we were the center of everything - international travel, intense spreading, insanely high death rates for 2-3 months. But it does seem to be at levels now that are manageable, and the fast food nation of the USA carries on.

Covid was an opportunity to have real conversations about health... Maybe that will change in the coming months.

[Kalen Braley]

Well that's an odd statistic Mike given that 7.3 in 10 Americans are overweight or obese, its almost like people are affected at the same rate. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/obesity-adult-17-18/obesity-adult.htm

If there was an easy quick fix to being overweight I would certainly like to know as a large person myself, as opposed to say the Covid pandemic in getting the damn vaccine.

P.S.  India's obesity rates are a tiny fraction compared to people the US, but they are dropping like flies...hmm.

[Ally Mcintosh]

Confirmation tonight that the UK expect the Indian variant to become the dominant strain there. Which will mean the same in Ireland and likely the US.

[John Mayhugh]

80% of people (especially in the US) will not get vaccinated. Hence we will have an Endemic disease.

Ally,
I don't understand your comment.

If the US CDC can be believed, 35.8% of the total US population has been fully vaccinated. While that's far less than the 80% target that you mentioned, not sure why you singled out the US for failing to comply? It seems that the US rate is presently well ahead of Canada, the UK, the EU, and most of the rest of the world.

[Thomas Dai]

Hows about we all do everyone including ourselves a great big favour by not travelling outside of our own country this year? Is that really too much to ask even of the most selfish, self centred, self obsessed ........*

Atb


* insert favourite derogatory word.

[Ally Mcintosh]

80% of people (especially in the US) will not get vaccinated. Hence we will have an Endemic disease.

Ally,
I don't understand your comment.

If the US CDC can be believed, 35.8% of the total US population has been fully vaccinated. While that's far less than the 80% target that you mentioned, not sure why you singled out the US for failing to comply? It seems that the US rate is presently well ahead of Canada, the UK, the EU, and most of the rest of the world.

Perhaps I shouldn’t have singled it out. My understanding is that the US has a particular issue with certain sections of society and conspiracy theorists who are anti-vaxers. But I don’t actually know if it is any worse than any other country.


How many are vaccinated so far (in comparison to other countries) is to do with supply, not who is willing to take the vaccine