Masters 2021 Predictions - Winner and Score?

[John Kavanaugh]

If you’re not choking you ain’t trying.

[John Kavanaugh]

Isn't the tee shot on 16 to a Sunday pin the easiest shot on the course? If I were to win a lottery where I could choose one hole to play where I won $100,000 for a par or $1,000,000 for a birdie I would choose 16 with that Sunday pin.

[Terry Lavin]

Isn't the tee shot on 16 to a Sunday pin the easiest shot on the course? If I were to win a lottery where I could choose one hole to play where I won $100,000 for a par or $1,000,000 for a birdie I would choose 16 with that Sunday pin.

You’re exactly correct. You have to aim right and hope for lateral Reaganomics: a steady trickledown. XS clearly choked and yanked it at least 30 feet left of the safe line. It happens. Any pro golfer who hasn’t choked hasn’t played in enough tour events.


Shit happened. He will surely learn from it.

[John Kirk]

I still think he hit it fat, which closed down the face and pulled the trajectory left.  I thought it sounded heavy when he hit it, and the divot seemed a bit deep.


The proper term for a fat/heavy/chunked shot is a sclaff, which I should have used in my first comment.  I say he sclaffed it.

JK, I agree with your comment about his composure.  Schauffele and Matsuyama displayed class and dignity all day long.  I don't remember hearing either one talking to his ball or complaining about their shot once.  If I've had one major flaw as a golfer, it's a tendency to broadcast my feelings while my shots are in motion.

[Ira Fishman]

If I have learned one thing in my dozen years of working with and for the best of the best athletes in their sport, it is that not one of us who is not on the playing field can know what really happened on it. Unless you were standing next to him on the tee, you are just enjoying our version of social media.


Ira

[John Kavanaugh]

If I have learned one thing in my dozen years of working with and for the best of the best athletes in their sport, it is that not one of us who is not on the playing field can know what really happened on it. Unless you were standing next to him on the tee, you are just enjoying our version of social media.


Ira

That shot was not an act of God cause the man still got paid.

[Peter Flory]

If Xander said he flushed it and hit a good shot, who are we to question that? ...

Psychologists through their studies have shown that athletes that perform at a high level are liars. I.e., they deny their fault when bad things happen. The article I read used the example of a famous choke by Gary Player on a bunker shot. Afterwards, Gary always claimed he hit a rock with his club. Knowledgeable observers said they heard no rock being hit, and post event examinations of the bunker found no rocks.

Who are we to question? I guess we have to claim to be psychologists.

There may be something to that.  If it was your fault, then you're bound to do it again.  If it wasn't your fault, then it was just bad luck and you're likely to have more success the next time. 

[Gene Greco]

If I have learned one thing in my dozen years of working with and for the best of the best athletes in their sport, it is that not one of us who is not on the playing field can know what really happened on it. Unless you were standing next to him on the tee, you are just enjoying our version of social media.


Ira

He pured it.


They picked the wrong club.


He and his caddie took forever to plan the shot, looked up at all the tree tops six or 7 times.


Most players hit seven iron, he hit eight.

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[jeffwarne]

I still think he hit it fat, which closed down the face and pulled the trajectory left.  I thought it sounded heavy when he hit it, and the divot seemed a bit deep.

it looked and sounded fat to me the moment he hit it
It wasn't even close-offline AND 30 yards short.


Compare the sound and divot on his next wedge-very different

[Garland Bayley]

If Xander said he flushed it and hit a good shot, who are we to question that? ...

Psychologists through their studies have shown that athletes that perform at a high level are liars. I.e., they deny their fault when bad things happen. The article I read used the example of a famous choke by Gary Player on a bunker shot. Afterwards, Gary always claimed he hit a rock with his club. Knowledgeable observers said they heard no rock being hit, and post event examinations of the bunker found no rocks.

Who are we to question? I guess we have to claim to be psychologists.

There may be something to that.  If it was your fault, then you're bound to do it again.  If it wasn't your fault, then it was just bad luck and you're likely to have more success the next time.

That's basically what the psychologists say. If we admit it was our goof, we are likely to do it again. If we don't admit it, we don't have the emotional baggage to cause it to happen again.

[Mark Kiely]

If Xander said he flushed it and hit a good shot, who are we to question that? ...

Psychologists through their studies have shown that athletes that perform at a high level are liars. I.e., they deny their fault when bad things happen. The article I read used the example of a famous choke by Gary Player on a bunker shot. Afterwards, Gary always claimed he hit a rock with his club. Knowledgeable observers said they heard no rock being hit, and post event examinations of the bunker found no rocks.

Who are we to question? I guess we have to claim to be psychologists.

There may be something to that.  If it was your fault, then you're bound to do it again.  If it wasn't your fault, then it was just bad luck and you're likely to have more success the next time.

That's basically what the psychologists say. If we admit it was our goof, we are likely to do it again. If we don't admit it, we don't have the emotional baggage to cause it to happen again.

Seems Bryson may have adopted this approach. In the last couple months I recall him saying things to the effect of "I hit that so perfectly" after shots that ended up in trouble. Basically absolving himself of responsibility for having made a poor swing or decision.

[Gene Greco]

Now we are pyschoanalyzing the poor guy?
Sound of the divots?


Ira said “Unless you were standing right next to the guy..”


I was.


The ghoulish cameraman focusing in on Xander’s fascial expressions after the shot had his elbow jammed into my sternum.


I watched two hours worth of tee balls hit on 16.


I LISTENED to him and his caddie confer with one another for much longer than other caddie/players playing previously, still indecisive upon teeing the ball.


It wasn’t offline and wasn’t miss hit. We all cried “go in” it looked so good.


Schaufelle said during interviews he hit the shot he wanted to hit.


Why the incredulousness?

[Niall C]

Gene

Good on you for being in the thick of the action. However you ask why everyone is incredulous (I prefer the term sceptical) about him puring his first tee shot. I may be misremembering this but I'm fairly sure that the UK commentator/analyst said he caught it heavy even as the ball was still in the air. Some of the experts on here, notably Jeff, are of the view he caught it heavy. I'd also agree with John that he hit it off-line. With that pin position to me the attacking shot and the percentage shot is to play for it to go up the slope and back down. Sure you might overdo it and end up sticking at the top of the slope but at least that's better than erring the other way, and if he does get it right he has a chance of going in (a small chance) but more likely he will likely end up below the hole and have a better chance for birdie. Personally, and yes I am a hacker, I can't see the merit of going straight at it with that pin position.

A final thought about Schaufelle and that is that whatever excitement there was on Sunday it came from the pressure he exerted on Hideki. Of the four birdies in a row, 3 of them could have been eagles. It's just a shame the wheels came off as they did because it could have been a hell of a finish.

Niall

[Sean_A]

He said he flushed it. The direction was perfect. What more can he do? He got unlucky with a gust of wind.
Obviously, he could have hit 7 iron to the right like Hideki - only that he was two back with three to play and had to attack.

The shot LOOKED and sounded fat-not sure I buy that.
Besides if flushing the ball was all that's required, there'd be a lot of great players.
Pretty sure he flushed his next wedge as well.
A ton of skill in flighting shots, gauging wind-far easier with the modern ball.
It's not like he was hitting a 1980's spinny balata ball.
He either hit the wrong club, the wrong shot or mishit it, or all three.
That is one of the least demanding shots down the stretch on a Masters Sunday-with several ways to access the pin.
The proper shot, solidly struck would've a least somewhat mitigated the effect of the supposed wind gust.(it really wasn't close)
and I had him at 22-1...

No, negative, false...;-)


You can gauge a shot perfectly in THAT moment then strike it purely only to have an unforeseen gust of wind knock it down.
Has happened 100 times on #12.


Did you hear Judy Rankin?
She said you could hear the rush of wind pick up just after he hit the shot.
He was going flag hunting and a wind gust f**ked him.


No more. no less, no choke, bad luck.
Sure, ho couldve done what Hideki did...who carded a 4 on the hole after a 3-jack from top tier.

You can hit a bad shot and have bad luck.

Ciao

[Sean_A]

I still think he hit it fat, which closed down the face and pulled the trajectory left.  I thought it sounded heavy when he hit it, and the divot seemed a bit deep.

it looked and sounded fat to me the moment he hit it
It wasn't even close-offline AND 30 yards short.


Compare the sound and divot on his next wedge-very different

I have no idea if he fatted it, but coming up 30 yards short wasn't due to wind. Are folks really saying wind held the ball up 30 yards? Seems far fetched to me.

Ciao

[Ian Mackenzie]

I still think he hit it fat, which closed down the face and pulled the trajectory left.  I thought it sounded heavy when he hit it, and the divot seemed a bit deep.

it looked and sounded fat to me the moment he hit it
It wasn't even close-offline AND 30 yards short.


Compare the sound and divot on his next wedge-very different

I have no idea if he flatted it, but coming up 30 yards short wasn't due to wind. Are folks really saying wind held the ball up 30 yard? Seems far fetched to me.

Ciao

30 yards?
No. Maybe 10 yards.
It didnt go into H20 on the fly; it found land then bounced in barley short of the bunker.


Like I said before, the announcer said specifically that she could HEAR the wind pick up strongly as soon as he hit the shot.


https://www.golfdigest.com/story/masters-2021-xander-schauffele-on-disastrous-shot-that-ended-the-masters-i-flushed-it


Masters 2021: Xander Schauffele on the disastrous shot that ended the Masters: 'I flushed it'

[John Kirk]

I went back and watched the video of the shot and result twice more.

I also looked at the official pin sheet for the day.  The pin was 30 yards from the front, and 4 yards from the left edge.

Based on these pieces of information, it appears to me that the ball first bounced about 18 yards short of the hole.

In the cited Golf Digest article, Schauffele says the wind appeared to be "down cut", so he thinks the ball will drift right a bit.  And down breezes can be tricky, as they sometimes knock a shot down.

Let's imagine they were talking about the shot for a long time because the distance was awkward, hard to choose between a 7- or 8-iron.  He feels he needs to make a 2.  They expect the 8-iron will come up 6-10 yards short, but the ball tends to bounce forward on that part of the green.  If the 7-iron goes too far, then you end up with a 15-30 foot putt down to the hole.  In my opinion, very few players make birdie from long/above the hole, while it is much easier to make the putt from short/below the hole.  I think it's much harder to read the break from long.

So they decide that he should hit 8, and instead of the ball landing 6-10 yards short, it lands 18 yards short because of shifting winds.  That seems plausible.

Once again, I was concerned with the shot immediately, mostly because the divot looked a touch deep.  But it was an unusual overhead view of the shot, so maybe it threw me.  However, if he did take a little more turf, then he would have struck the ball a bit high on the club face, which might have affected both the spin and the power of the strike.  Maybe.

That's my detailed second look at the shot.  As a result, I am less confident the result was caused by mishitting the shot.

[Ira Fishman]

Like many of you, I have a big screen HD TV. Gene was standing there. Why is his report not sufficient?


Ira

[John Kirk]

My comments have almost nothing to do with Gene's reportage.  I know Gene a bit, and have played a round or two of golf with him.  The last time I saw him was a chance meeting at a pub in his home town.  He is universally respected here.

I revisited the subject because of the comment that the ball was thirty yards short.  I wanted to see if that was really true, and think this through a bit more.  It seems the ball landed about ten yards short of the intended distance.

In short, I was saying, "OK, maybe you're right." 

[Pat Burke]

Well Nicklaus “never” Missed a short putt on 18 either
So I guess we are ok


He may have hit it well
On television, far from ideal, when he hit it I thought oh crap that’s left.


So, he either hit the wrong shot or club


Or mishit it


With a daughter that is a SDSU grad and having followed Xander for awhile, I was bummed either way

[Niall C]

Like many of you, I have a big screen HD TV. Gene was standing there. Why is his report not sufficient?


Ira

Ira


We all watched it on TV...over and over again. Why is that not sufficient for Gene ?


Niall

[Kalen Braley]

I agree in concept with Niall,

I'm not casting any aspersions on Gene, but reliability issues with "eyewitness accounts" is a very well researched and documented topic.  I have a brother and a brother-in-law and 1 other friend who are police officers, and they have indicated similar when gathering evidence for an incident.

Its a big reason why we have replay and review in pretty much every sport now...

https://www.ncsc.org/trends/monthly-trends-articles/2017/the-trouble-with-eyewitness-identification-testimony-in-criminal-cases#:~:text=Research%20has%20found%20that%20eyewitness%2Didentification%20testimony%20can%20be%20very%20unreliable.&text=Although%20witnesses%20can%20often%20be,most%20unreliable%20forms%20of%20evidence.

[Pete_Pittock]

I agree in concept with Niall,

I'm not casting any aspersions on Gene, but reliability issues with "eyewitness accounts" is a very well researched and documented topic.  I have a brother and a brother-in-law and 1 other friend who are police officers, and they have indicated similar when gathering evidence for an incident.

Its a big reason why we have replay and review in pretty much every sport now...

https://www.ncsc.org/trends/monthly-trends-articles/2017/the-trouble-with-eyewitness-identification-testimony-in-criminal-cases#:~:text=Research%20has%20found%20that%20eyewitness%2Didentification%20testimony%20can%20be%20very%20unreliable.&text=Although%20witnesses%20can%20often%20be,most%20unreliable%20forms%20of%20evidence.

big difference between generally and a specific case.

[Niall C]

Just for clarity, I'm not denigrating Gene's view or opinion, I'm just suggesting that he's giving a different (valuable) perspective but not necessarily one that trumps what we all witnessed on TV. Personally I tend to give more weight to the views of the golf pro/swing coaches on here who are more attuned to identifying bad shots as opposed to the rest of us who merely hit bad shots as a matter of course.


I would say though that if Schauffle merely hit the shot he wanted on the line he wanted and merely under-clubbed then I do think he strategic mistake. However he's been in the mix a few times now and I tend to think it is more about learning to win rather than choking.


Niall

[AChao]

Bear in mind Xander's spin rates aren't as high as many of the others.  He's a relatively low ball - low spin player comparatively.  If he lands the ball three yards right, I don't think he's that far short of the hole given his launch/spin.  I'd guess this is a strategic error or trying too hard to make 1 when he should have hit it 10 feet right and hoped for it to trickle close.