Dave-As a scratch or better player that hits it between 235-250(you wrote that somewhere) how would you have fared on Thursday? If you like mental exhaustion I believe you would have had your fill. 
Tim, you asked! ;-)
I definitely would have had my fill, no doubt.
Forgive me for the long, drawn-out response, below, but if I just post my “score range,” without context, plenty of people will think I’m a fool, and I’m not – when it comes to golf. Other things, including golf architecture, yes. Golf itself, no.
This longwinded response is born out of years of discussing this kind of stuff on other golf forums. It’s one that interests me and one that I have plenty of “tangential” and even semi-direct experience with and evidence for, so I’m passionate about it.
“What would a scratch golfer shoot?” questions arouse so much passion on golf forums, it's crazy. The truth of the matter is that it's relatively easy to predict what I, or any scratch/below am
with an honest handicap would shoot on any course in the world where you can derive a rating and a slope. And whenever you have pros playing a course, you can do that -- with some margin for error, of course.
It’s certainly not an exact science to derive a perfect rating and slope from the pros playing a course, because we don’t know exactly how firm the greens are (certainly very firm the first two days!) and exactly how difficult it is to negotiate the thick, deep rough – especially around the greens -- but it’s not like it’s even close to impossible. We can get definitely get close.
This used to be a much more difficult question to answer, as there was very little direct evidence, but the whole question has been demystified because there's enough data, now that we’ve had several years of true amateurs playing in actual U.S. Open conditions in the "U.S. Open Challenge." Guys like Justin Timberlake, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Michael Jordan, etc. have played in true U.S. Open conditions at two absolute beasts, Torrey Pines South and Bethpage Black. And we now
know that it was nowhere near as bad as some, cocksure, jackwagons ... errrr ... people … thought it would be.
I've literally had people (yes, more than one) tell me that I
couldn't break 100 in “true U.S. Open conditions” for instance. Puh. Leeze. Justin Timberlake is a nice golfer. I’ve played with/against him in a tournament. He was a 6(!) when he shot 88 at Bethpage Black in U.S. Open conditions. I believe he’s since down to about a 3 or 4. And Roethlisberger, no better than a 3 to 5 index, shot 81.
We can reasonably estimate scores at Players Championship-shape Sawgrass (or any course) for anyone with a USGA index -- it's just that the further away from a true scratch player you move, the larger the variability in scores will be, so it becomes silly. To wit:
At The Players, a male, 22.0 USGA index golfer, for instance, would be playing to a course handicap north of 40(!) assuming a slope of 165 (which isn't even possible to input on the USGA Course Handicap Calculator!). I input a rating of 78.5 and a slope of 155 (the max), and that would give a 22.0 index a course handicap of 38! Notch that up to a slope 165 (my estimate of the slope at Sawgrass) and the 22 index has a course handicap of 40+. But there’s even more to it: Because the slope is so high, variability is going to be off the charts for a 22 at a course like this weekend’s. A 22 index could shoot as low as probably 105 (if he’s making everything), but as high as 140+ (water ball after water ball after water ball).
But before I answer what I would shoot (the question at hand) the "What would a scratch player shoot" threads are always a hoot, because no one ever defines the golfer in question or the specific question itself. The "What would a scratch golfer shoot at The Masters???" thread goes on for page after page after page after page over on GolfWRX, mostly because the terms of the discussion are never agreed on and everyone constantly moves the goal posts.
First, what is a "scratch golfer"? Is it someone who once in the year got their index to 0.2, but who lives in the 1 to 3 range all year and averages 2.3? Is that a scratch golfer? Without any context, most people would say, "Yes, that's a scratch golfer." Many/most guys like that consider themselves scratch golfers, in fact. Everyone has a story of their “scratch golfer buddy” who got beat by a Tour pro by 21 shots and so, therefore, a Tour Pro is at least 21 shots better than a “scratch golfer.” It’s just … silly. It’s like people give themselves a lobotomy before the talk about stuff like this – and then they have the nerve to be cocksure about it. Sigh ….
But I digress. So, if Sawgrass is playing to a rating of 78 or 79 and a slope of 160 to 165, now we have a starting point, our first “given” (assuming it’s agreed on). At 7,160 yards (the total yardage on day 1 of the tournament) it’s not at all an unplayable distance for any scratch golfer -- even a super-short one like me. Assuming my back is healthy, as it was this summer, in 70+ degree weather, I carry driver 230 to 235. Firm, Tour fairways, and my total distance is 250 to 265. As a low-ball hitter with driver, I get more roll than most, so I would benefit a bit more than usual. Also, as far as I can tell, there are no forced carries of over 225(?) yards, so I should be able to -- at the very least -- finish my round. ;-)
Next, we have to define that the only way that anyone should ever talk about scores in these types of debates is as a
range – because literally every golfer has a range of scores. More precisely, every golfer has a
range of differentials that they shoot against the course rating/slope. Once you commit to answering as a range, it becomes quite easy to answer -- but no one wants to listen to reason, they want to argue. Or they will want to quibble about the low end of the range and how often that low end could happen, etc. Sure. Fine. Okay.
Finally, we have to truly define the player/player type. A “scratch golfer” whose best index in their life is 0.2 and who mostly hovers between 1.0 and 3.3 and rarely plays away from his home course and plays few tournaments other than the club championship, is a very, very different golfer than even a 2nd tier competitive 50+ amateur like me. My tournament index (counting only competitive rounds) is +1, and has been as low as +2 to +3 when I was younger and hit it considerably farther. Meaning I shoot exactly the same (actually slightly better) in competition (regional events, city championships, etc.) than I do in “casual” rounds. I have averaged 8 – 12 legit tournaments a year for 20 years, and I turn in every single score, whether it’s an 86 in 40mph winds in a qualifier at Rustic Canyon, or a 64 on my easy, 6500-yard home course.
But at my current age, I’m actually a
true “scratch golfer,” not a legit + handicap guy. My LI was +2.0 this year, but my average for the whole year was, once again, barely into + territory at about +0.3, I think. For comparison’s sake, Matt Cohn, on this board, lives in the +3 to +5 range all year, if I’m not mistaken. He is not a “scratch golfer,” he’s an elite mid-am who is capable of breaking par at The Players. I bet he could shoot 67 on one of his better days, in fact. He’s also capable of shooting 83, and would probably have a tough time making a cut if he played the tournament 20 times (although I believe he would a couple/few times, for sure). I think he’d agree with all/most of that.
I'm a different player than Matt, though I can definitely compete with guys like him on the right kind of course. I’m also a very different player than the first guy I mentioned. I play guys like that all the time (the 1 - 3 index guys), and when I’m healthy – and especially in a tournament -- they almost never beat me scratch. They may beat me net, in Interclub Team play. And they may fire a 72 on a day I play poorly and shoot 74 and get me scratch, for one round, but it’s rare when I’m healthy. And I’m just a “scratch” golfer – albeit a tournament-tested one.
Lastly, before answering, I’ll say this: If the question turns into a one-time bet type of thing, that’s a completely different animal. And if it ever veers into the “What would someone shoot ‘in the actual tournament,’ with crowds, pressure, etc.?” then that’s just silly because that will never happen -- and if it did, you can bet that everyone would steadily get better and better the more times they did it. All golfers have a learning curve for dealing with “new” types of pressure, whether that’s playing in the club championship for the first time, or moving from the Korn Ferry to the Big Tour or playing in your first major, etc. The first time I played with a legit PGA Tour pro, I was, uhhhh, not at my best. But now they are just another match to me when I'm fortunate enough to play with/against them.
So here’s the answer: Assuming Thursday/Friday conditions (today seems to be playing easier?), I would expect my scores to range thusly:
73 to 84 with an average score of 78 to 80, with my scores mostly concentrated between 76 and 80. But some high rounds bringing up the true average.Assuming the 79/165 rating/slope is close, 8 scores averaging 78 on that course makes me a +0.6 Sounds about right. Definitely will shoot some rounds lower than that. Definitely will shoot some rounds higher than that, although my short game and putting tend to limit me from ever going crazy high.
If I had any confidence, I would say I could still break par there (or even a couple under) on my very best day, but I just don’t know that I could – not at this age and as out of shape as I am. In my 30’s, without question I could have, but my average score would have been about what it would be today, because I was an inexperienced tournament player back then. Made too many dumb mistakes and was too one-dimensional as a player.
Keep in mind that as a very short-hitting competitive player, I don’t hit the ball too far off-line when I’m healthy (back issues can make driving … “interesting”). I would negotiate the water just fine. I would certainly have to play several par-4’s as par 5’s if I missed the fairway -- and a couple even if I hit the fairway! But then I’d just smartly choose my next shot and play to my strength. From 80 to 140, I can golf my ball. I can access left pin, right-pins, front pins, flight it to back pins, low, high, etc. And I know where and how to play to spots on firm greens in order to maximize birdie chances when they present themselves and avoid disaster when the shot is a difficult one for me (say, even slightly downwind to a front pin fronted by trouble or water). I would just take my medicine and accept that 35 - 45-feet past the hole (or more!) is the best I can do on that, particular shot.
I’ve said a lot here, obviously, but there’s even more to say on this subject. I haven’t even gotten into the whole Jeff Knox situation at The Masters or my buddy Robert making the cut at the U.S. Senior Open in back-to-back years as an amateur – a guy I’ve competed with and against for 15+ years. I’ve also played several matches against pros where I get to play their drive, and I’m 2 – 1 in those matches, and all three were close. There’s just no substitute for length, and I don’t have any. At all. Hard to play this game from 50 to 100 yards behind even a reasonably long tour pro on virtually every long hole out there even if my game inside 150 is pretty darn good.
Now … let the arguing begin!
