[David_Tepper]

This is not good news:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-21/boris-johnson-signals-u-k-virus-lockdown-could-last-into-summer?cmpid=BBD012221_MKT&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=210122&utm_campaign=markets

[Thomas Dai]

Anyone read-up or researched the severity of the Spanish Flu pandemic that swept the World for a few years from towards the end of WW1, the numbers effected and how long it continued for? Fingers crossed.
Atb

[Tony_Muldoon]

There is a belief growing (effective government PR?) That Boris has learned to underpromiss and start delivering.  The roll out of the vacinations is going well, at least compared to our neighbours.


Blair loved to say how terrible things were but then he'd pull a rabbit out...He was a master at getting re-elected,which is really the game Boris wants to play.


I'm afraid we'll all have to wait and not put too much weight on what today's politicians tell us.

[Mark Pearce]

There is a belief growing (effective government PR?) That Boris has learned to underpromiss and start delivering. 

Not in our household, there isn't.

[Jeff Schley]

Planning to be in Scotland highlands end fo May right now and before the UK variant was certainly confident it would go considering the vaccine is being rolled out. However, that could be in doubt as will the vaccine be effective against the new variant as time goes by?  Will they require a vaccine to travel to the UK etc.?  Who knows, we can only pray for the priorities in our lives ([size=78%]heath and family) are taking up our requests to God as opposed to being able to golf.[/size]

[Jerry Kluger]

The vaccines are 95% effective but that does not mean that 5% of the population will get the virus.  That 5% was individuals who were intentionally exposed to the virus is some form - I don't know what it was but it was done in a way where scientists were agreed that the exposure would be sufficient to establish the validity of the study.  In the real world  people can avoid being exposed to the virus by wearing masks, social distancing, etc. so there is no necessary expectation that 5% will be infected. I just watched a doctor from Johns Hopkins say that he expects things to be dramatically changed by April and he saw no medical reason why California had been shut down the way it was and the openings in California ordered by the governor today were the right thing to do.  Outdoor activities like golf are not likely at all to spread the virus and sometimes governments just like to flex their muscles even if no one is impressed or agrees.

[James Reader]

The vaccines are 95% effective but that does not mean that 5% of the population will get the virus.  That 5% was individuals who were intentionally exposed to the virus is some form - I don't know what it was but it was done in a way where scientists were agreed that the exposure would be sufficient to establish the validity of the study.  In the real world  people can avoid being exposed to the virus by wearing masks, social distancing, etc. so there is no necessary expectation that 5% will be infected. I just watched a doctor from Johns Hopkins say that he expects things to be dramatically changed by April and he saw no medical reason why California had been shut down the way it was and the openings in California ordered by the governor today were the right thing to do.  Outdoor activities like golf are not likely at all to spread the virus and sometimes governments just like to flex their muscles even if no one is impressed or agrees.

It certainly doesn’t mean that 5% of the population will get the virus having been vaccinated, but no one was “intentionally exposed” to the virus as part of the vaccine testing programme! 


95% effective means that, for example, for every 100 people who caught the virus after having been given the placebo in the trial, only 5 caught it having been given the real vaccine.  Of the 44,000 people in the Pfizer/Biontech trial only 170 caught the virus - 8 of the 22,000 given the vaccine and 162 of the 22,000 given the placebo (8/162=5%).

[Bryan Izatt]

The vaccines are 95% effective but that does not mean that 5% of the population will get the virus.  That 5% was individuals who were intentionally exposed to the virus is some form - I don't know what it was but it was done in a way where scientists were agreed that the exposure would be sufficient to establish the validity of the study.  In the real world  people can avoid being exposed to the virus by wearing masks, social distancing, etc. so there is no necessary expectation that 5% will be infected. I just watched a doctor from Johns Hopkins say that he expects things to be dramatically changed by April and he saw no medical reason why California had been shut down the way it was and the openings in California ordered by the governor today were the right thing to do.  Outdoor activities like golf are not likely at all to spread the virus and sometimes governments just like to flex their muscles even if no one is impressed or agrees.

Re your first statements, there were NO "human challenge trials" for the currently approved vaccines.  Nobody was "intentionally exposed" to the virus as part of the trials.  The UK was supposed to be considering human challenge trials for healthy young people in January 2021 but I don't know where that is at.     

The 95% efficacy means as follows:  For example, Pfizer/BioNTech reported an efficacy of 95% for the COVID-19 vaccine. This means a 95% reduction in new cases of the disease in the vaccine group compared with the placebo group.

People in the trial lived their normal lives and got infected or not like any of the rest of us.

As for doctors and opinions on lockdowns or not or public policy in general, you can find lots of people online who will espouse totally opposite views.  We're locked down here and will be for the foreseeable future (with a conservative Premier).  The vaccine rollout appears chaotic and quite variable across different jurisdictions.  Even us old people here are not likely to get vaccine before April at the earliest.  Time to wait and see what happens.

[Jerry Kluger]

I guess I misunderstood some of the testing.  Were all of those in the trials given specific instructions to follow recommended preventive measures such as mask use, social distancing, etc.?

[Daryl David]

I guess I misunderstood some of the testing.  Were all of those in the trials given specific instructions to follow recommended preventive measures such as mask use, social distancing, etc.?

Yes

[Mark Pearce]

The vaccines are 95% effective but that does not mean that 5% of the population will get the virus.  That 5% was individuals who were intentionally exposed to the virus is some form - I don't know what it was but it was done in a way where scientists were agreed that the exposure would be sufficient to establish the validity of the study.  In the real world  people can avoid being exposed to the virus by wearing masks, social distancing, etc. so there is no necessary expectation that 5% will be infected. I just watched a doctor from Johns Hopkins say that he expects things to be dramatically changed by April and he saw no medical reason why California had been shut down the way it was and the openings in California ordered by the governor today were the right thing to do.  Outdoor activities like golf are not likely at all to spread the virus and sometimes governments just like to flex their muscles even if no one is impressed or agrees.

That is not how a clinical trial works.  Where the hell did you get that from?

[David_Tepper]

Not encouraging at all:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-04/put-away-the-suitcase-vaccines-won-t-bring-back-overseas-travel

[Adam Lawrence]

Not encouraging at all:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-04/put-away-the-suitcase-vaccines-won-t-bring-back-overseas-travel

I wouldn't like to put any dates on travel returning to anything like normality, but in contradiction of this story, there is clear evidence from a new piece of research that the vaccine can slow transmission.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55910964


Possibly because it is a beautifully mild, sunny day here today, but I'm in a tolerably optimistic mood for the first time in a long while.

[Jerry Kluger]

Mark: You're a little late - I admitted 2 weeks ago that I was mistaken as to how the trials are conducted. 

[Niall C]

Jerry

Mark responded a couple of weeks ago as well although after your post so he was indeed a little late.

Adam

It might be lovely down south but it is a horrible wet day up north so hard to look on the sunny side. However I think you are basically correct. Things are likely to start opening up in a couple of months time however I think you would still be optimistic to book travel in or out of the country for before late summer.

Niall

[Adam Lawrence]

Jerry

Mark responded a couple of weeks ago as well although after your post so he was indeed a little late.

Adam

It might be lovely down south but it is a horrible wet day up north so hard to look on the sunny side. However I think you are basically correct. Things are likely to start opening up in a couple of months time however I think you would still be optimistic to book travel in or out of the country for before late summer.

Niall

Niall, one thing I learned a long time ago is that one doesn't live in Scotland for the weather.

[David_Tepper]

Some encouraging news!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-03/u-k-says-10-million-people-have-received-coronavirus-vaccine

[Jay Mickle]

Having received my 2 shots of Pfizer vaccine, I am hopeful that the card I now carry and/or the North Carolina DHHS website attesting to my vaccination completion may open a path to international travel. I am not booking flights just yet but am ready when the time comes. Now if the US passport agency would just get my renewed passport back to me.

[Charles Lund]

Here are links to a recent discussion of Vaccination passports:
https://news.yahoo.com/coming-soon-vaccine-passport-195441490.html


https://www.ibtimes.com/covid-vaccine-passport-travel-all-important-details-you-need-know-3138596

The first includes a recent article in the New York Times. 

I've traveled to play golf in multiple countries and and on different continents since 2007.  There are a lot of issues related to Vaccination Passports and a lot of questions about what the vaccination will achieve over time in various countries and whether protection provided by vaccination means the individual who is protected is or is not at risk for passing on the virus somehow. 

I have been grounded as far as international travel for close to a year.  I returned from a month in Asia on February 9th, 2020.  I had three additional trips lined up for 2020, including two to Australia, which became unworkable. 

It seems to me that travelers from countries which have a high rate of transmission are likely to be denied entry into other countries regardless of vaccination and test status until the overall spread in the country of origin is below some low threshold for an extended period of time.

Countries like Australia had Electronic Travel Authorization, good for one year, for travelers from the U.S. and passports were checked against the ETA data by airlines and someone without ETA was not allowed to board the flight.  As cautious as a country like Australia is, my guess is that they will require some kind of linkage to a passport for vaccination data and without it, they will deny entry or require two week monitored hotel quarantine on arrival, at traveler expense.

Preflight test negative test results only show you didn't have the virus at the time of testing. 

It is hard to say what the UK or Ireland might do.  Ireland has constraints on play in that country.  For example, a club I get information about in Donegal has limited play to only members who reside in that county, but I think it might be closed to play now.  I suspect that other counties have similar limits when clubs are open for play.

I have a hard time being optimistic about overseas golf travel or any other type of overseas travel within the next 12 to 18 months.  Having a 25 percent share of the world's Covid-19 cases doesn't make a very compelling argument for opening up a country to American passport holders for tourism.

Charles Lund

Charles Lund

[Ally Mcintosh]

Charles,


Overseas visitors should assume no travel to Ireland this summer. Everything is closed for now. Restriction lifting will happen small bit by small bit and we have already been told it will be at least September until some restrictions are removed.


For most of the last year, we have not been able to move outside our home county (right now it is 5km) and the government is currently tightening up on incoming travel by introducing mandatory quarantine in central hotels for certain travel types.


As for Scotland, I am already in the process of postponing a golf trip at the beginning of June. And I can get there by land and sea through the North if I really want to.

[Jeff Schley]

Charles,
As you know you were not alone in delaying golf trips, or just travel in general. I would have taken no less than 13 trips for business outside of vacation that were obviously canceled or delayed. Any government restrictions supersedes any visa/ETA for good reason.

I am cozying up to the idea of 2022 golf trips, with the 3 I tentatively had rescheduled this year (1 to Highlands) probably more than 50% likely of being postponed again. Albeit with good reason and during this transition time we all have to be a little flexible.

[Charles Lund]

I hope to buy a 10 round senior punch card that I can use to play Gold Mountain Olympic and a Doak 5 course near my rural house in the Pacific Northwest where there is a low spread rate.  I get my second vaccination later this month and a week later will travel with mask and face shield by air to San Diego for about a month.   I hope to get in enough rounds to keep some version of a golf swing for a trip to Iowa in September, so being in San Diego in late winter will help.


I am fairly comfortable with solo travel in general and solo golf travel in particular.  This translated into doing social isolation and social distancing at home fairly well.  I have landscaping and gardening interests which are outdoors and require limited social contact.


Ally's comment leads me to conclude my thinking about overseas golf travel is realistic.  I had found myself thinking about a flight to Glasgow and a three week road trip in more optimistic moments. 


As many countries have success with widespread vaccination, there is less risk of spread within the country, so surges are less likely.  I don't imagine countries will have a cavalier attitude about tourists coming from other countries where spread is an ongoing problem. So I hope widespread vaccination here and sound public health approaches for containment will give credibility to the idea that American passport holders can be welcomed as visitors in other countries.


I have to be grateful for more than a decade of fabulous overseas golf travel.  I didn't pass up many opportunities.


Charles Lund

[Ally Mcintosh]

I can’t help but think that countries will be far more conservative this summer than they were in summer 2020 (July - Sept) when folks erroneously thought that the worst was over... The real test will come in winter 21/22...


I know there will be a temptation in the summer to believe that the large decrease in cases will all be down to vaccinations, neglecting the fact that lockdowns, warmer weather and the cyclical nature of the virus will have had just as much to do with it. Only next winter will the true effectiveness of the vaccines become clear, I would think...

[Duncan Cheslett]

I can’t help but think that countries will be far more conservative this summer than they were in summer 2020 (July - Sept) when folks erroneously thought that the worst was over... The real test will come in winter 21/22...


I know there will be a temptation in the summer to believe that the large decrease in cases will all be down to vaccinations, neglecting the fact that lockdowns, warmer weather and the cyclical nature of the virus will have had just as much to do with it. Only next winter will the true effectiveness of the vaccines become clear, I would think...

I wouldn’t rule out a return to some kind of lockdown next winter.


Golf clubs would probably be advised to make contingency plans for another 3 month closure. The weather’s been so bad this year that I genuinely think a lot of golfers are beginning to go off the idea of winter golf anyway after being forced to abstain in the warmth and comfort of their homes!


A nine month golf season would benefit courses and probably the financial health of clubs, too.

[David_Tepper]

A little off topic, but worth reading if you have gotten or soon will get vaccinated:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/03/health/after-covid-19-vaccine-safety-wellness/index.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab 

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