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David_Tepper

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #25 on: September 18, 2020, 01:04:23 PM »
The scores are certainly coming in higher so far today. Looks like Bubba Watson's 69 is the only sub-par completed round at this point. It will be interesting to see how the guys in the afternoon wave do.

At the moment, the projected cut is +7!

« Last Edit: September 18, 2020, 01:09:57 PM by David_Tepper »

Bruce Katona

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #26 on: September 18, 2020, 01:40:13 PM »
The swill and spit men from Far Hills could not have bee happy with Day 1 results as there were birdies to be made with several  receptive pin positions.  Lat night's wine flight pairing must have come from Barefoot or Franzia (in the box) as punishment.


Today the temperature is just a bit cooler but there is a breeze blowing, drying out the greens and makin the fairways a bit tougher to hit......only a handful who went out in the AM are under par for the round.......the afternoon won't be any easier.  The blazers will begin uncorking the Caymus (we're not quite ready to bill the USGA for Screaming Eagle yet) as the defense of par is in full bloom.


Someone earlier posted a projected cut line of +7.  If that's the case, and the conditions remain dry; I'm handicapping +5 to be in the mix come late on Sunday.  At par +5 strokes the Screaming Eagle will be uncorked and begin to breather as par (as opposed to the ball, which is the elephant in the room) will have been defended for 2020.

Tim Martin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #27 on: September 18, 2020, 03:24:17 PM »
WFW is showing its teeth today as David Tepper mentioned. I though Morikawa was out after yesterday’s round but is on track to slip under the tag. Someone talked about getting a really good look at the golf course without all the fans and that is bearing out. The home hole with the Wendehack clubhouse behind looks terrific .

cary lichtenstein

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #28 on: September 18, 2020, 03:43:12 PM »
Great US Open, great condition, terrific TV coverage, I love it
Live Jupiter, Fl, was  4 handicap, played top 100 US, top 75 World. Great memories, no longer play, 4 back surgeries. I don't miss a lot of things about golf, life is simpler with out it. I miss my 60 degree wedge shots, don't miss nasty weather, icing, back spasms. Last course I played was Augusta

Ian Mackenzie

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #29 on: September 18, 2020, 04:00:31 PM »
WFW is showing its teeth today as David Tepper mentioned. I though Morikawa was out after yesterday’s round but is on track to slip under the tag. Someone talked about getting a really good look at the golf course without all the fans and that is bearing out. The home hole with the Wendehack clubhouse behind looks terrific .


Morikawa just hit driver/PW on a 503 yard par 4....uh...ok...364 off the tee and 149 in...blew it past Tiger by 32 yards.

Tim Martin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #30 on: September 18, 2020, 05:12:54 PM »
WFW is showing its teeth today as David Tepper mentioned. I though Morikawa was out after yesterday’s round but is on track to slip under the tag. Someone talked about getting a really good look at the golf course without all the fans and that is bearing out. The home hole with the Wendehack clubhouse behind looks terrific .


Morikawa just hit driver/PW on a 503 yard par 4....uh...ok...364 off the tee and 149 in...blew it past Tiger by 32 yards.


Ian-He really wasn’t on my radar until the PGA which is on me. Since then I’ve been paying attention and he is a terrific young player whose off course earning potential seems almost limitless.

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +2/-1
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #31 on: September 19, 2020, 12:25:31 AM »
But he won't make any $ this week as the cut came at +6

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +2/-1
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #32 on: September 19, 2020, 12:28:45 AM »
I saw that my friend Erik Lang posted a couple of days sgo that Steve Rabideau (the superintendent at WF) has vowed to resign if anybody breaks par this week.  :o   Not sure if that's true or if it's a good thing, but I will wager that he remains the superintendent in 2021. 😉

Peter Pallotta

Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #33 on: September 19, 2020, 12:55:06 AM »
You guys know/understand these things better than I do, but there may be one thing that will lead to at least one player finishing under par, ie
what in the old days used to be called 'bomb and gouge' but is now more respectfully known as 'analytic strategy'.
[Sort of like 'greed' is now a 'highly succesfully investment approach'.]
Someone just might keep hitting driver as long and (only rarely) straight as humanly possible, thus taking wind and fairway firmness and green contours out of the equation and making thick rough merely the accepted cost of doing business.
In other words, Winged Foot will produce as many/more bogeys as usual -- but may also allow for more birdies than anyone ever before thought possible.


« Last Edit: September 19, 2020, 01:01:45 AM by Peter Pallotta »

Tim Martin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #34 on: September 19, 2020, 05:40:02 AM »
But he won't make any $ this week as the cut came at +6


I guess saying that he would make the cut was the kiss of death. On this course with this setup all bets are off.

Steve Lapper

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #35 on: September 19, 2020, 06:09:52 AM »
I saw that my friend Erik Lang posted a couple of days sgo that Steve Rabideau (the superintendent at WF) has vowed to resign if anybody breaks par this week.  :o   Not sure if that's true or if it's a good thing, but I will wager that he remains the superintendent in 2021. 😉




I will be happy to take the other side of that and wager with you!!!
The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful job of thinking."--John Kenneth Galbraith

JESII

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #36 on: September 19, 2020, 07:04:53 AM »
I saw that my friend Erik Lang posted a couple of days sgo that Steve Rabideau (the superintendent at WF) has vowed to resign if anybody breaks par this week.  :o   Not sure if that's true or if it's a good thing, but I will wager that he remains the superintendent in 2021. 😉




I will be happy to take the other side of that and wager with you!!!




Makes me think you saw the water meter at the club spinning like a top overnight...

archie_struthers

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #37 on: September 19, 2020, 07:07:55 AM »
 8)


the sub-air system is going to get all of  us that thought under par was achievable after day 1.


It's been wet in the northeast the last couple weeks and I thought that it was soft enough to let  them bomb and gouge away. But if they suck all the water out of the greens with the sub/air we are looking at really high scores the next couple days.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2020, 07:10:40 AM by archie_struthers »

Bruce Katona

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #38 on: September 19, 2020, 10:39:57 AM »
The swirl, aerate and spit guys wearing the blue blazers were not happy on Thursday Slapper; the golf looked like a chance for the best to show their skills; not bow to the defense of par.


Perhaps it may have been smarter (but who really looks at the weather forecast in setting up a golf course) to reverse days of the tougher and easier pin locations?


The Friday pins on Thursday would have raised the scores but the greens still held some moisture.  Thursday's locations were attackable and may have offered more scoring chances yesterday in the breezy and slightly cooler conditions.


The breeze is fresh again today and its cool out.  The blazers may have their revenge since there may just be 1-2 at or below par at the end of todays carnage.

Carl Rogers

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #39 on: September 19, 2020, 01:57:23 PM »
1:55 Saturday. .... 7 under will win
I decline to accept the end of man. ... William Faulkner

Kalen Braley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #40 on: September 19, 2020, 02:13:07 PM »
1:55 Saturday. .... 7 under will win


So will Even par!  ;D

Carl Rogers

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #41 on: September 19, 2020, 03:01:18 PM »
1:55 Saturday. .... 7 under will win


So will Even par!  ;D
Why make a "safe" prediction?
I decline to accept the end of man. ... William Faulkner

Kalen Braley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #42 on: September 19, 2020, 03:06:57 PM »
Quite the dilemma.. watch Reed and Bryson Dedouchebag slap it around WFW? or tune in to watch the old boys play Pebble? Decisions, decisions...

Peter Pallotta

Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #43 on: September 19, 2020, 07:58:04 PM »
Matthew W hit 14% of his fairways and shot -5 to take the lead. Bryson D hit 21% of the fairways on his way to an even par round and 2nd place. How do you predict winning scores when the US Open world has been turned upside down?

Tim Leahy

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #44 on: September 19, 2020, 08:05:40 PM »
I would love to see an 18 hole playoff between  Brison the pride of Fresno and the Wolffman. I am retired and have nothing else to do on Monday. ;D
I love golf, the fightin irish, and beautiful women depending on the season and availability.

Tim_Cronin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #45 on: September 19, 2020, 08:22:01 PM »
I would love to see an 18 hole playoff between  Brison the pride of Fresno and the Wolffman. I am retired and have nothing else to do on Monday. ;D


The U.S. Open is now a two-hole playoff followed by sudden-death if needed.
The website: www.illinoisgolfer.net
On Twitter: @illinoisgolfer

Craig Sweet

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #46 on: September 19, 2020, 08:40:17 PM »
Boring...
No one is above the law. LOCK HIM UP!!!

JLahrman

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #47 on: September 19, 2020, 11:49:34 PM »
what in the old days used to be called 'bomb and gouge' but is now more respectfully known as 'analytic strategy'.



Analytic golf: drivers and wedges
Analytic baseball: home runs, strikeouts, and walks
Analytic basketball: three-pointers, layups, and free throws


Boring and monotonous, but it's what is effective. Thanks, data science!

Ulrich Mayring

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #48 on: September 20, 2020, 04:53:14 AM »
I predict that narrow fairways and deep rough - once the staple of how to make a US Open - are going out. These guys can hit any green from any rough, provided they are reasonably close and no trees are in the way. You CAN play WFW out of the rough - none of the leaders have hit any fairways to speak of.

Note that the whispy brown stuff or the yellow gorse we find on some links courses or the purple heather are still as terrible as ever. But for the juicy, green stuff that we have at US Open sites time is running out.
Golf Course Exposé (300+ courses reviewed), Golf CV (how I keep track of 'em)

jeffwarne

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Maybe OT: Winning score at Winged Foot...?
« Reply #49 on: September 20, 2020, 08:37:55 AM »
Matthew W hit 14% of his fairways and shot -5 to take the lead. Bryson D hit 21% of the fairways on his way to an even par round and 2nd place. How do you predict winning scores when the US Open world has been turned upside down?


and Wolff's 65 Saturday, with 2 fairways hit, is the lowest score ever shot at Winged Foot in an Open(ties JT's Thursday round).
The field is averaging 40% fairways, which is less than 6 per round.


The scale of the elite game is gone, and the winners will become more random.
If drives are going to run 30-70 yards, and travel 380 yards in total everything should be enlarged.


It's not about "protecting par"
If par 4's are 500 yards and the fairways are 24 yards wide, that makes the width less than 5% of the length.
That's just an entirely different game than the Golden Age architcts envisioned and built, and absolutely mitigates the effect of angles, which are now only obtained randomly due to distance the ball travels,turf speeds and narrowed fairways .
Angles ARE often gained on pitch out shots.


Look at any old Golden age photo and the fairways about triple that 5% or nearly 15%(as a percentage of their length on a long par 4)


There are many bombers on tour, and occasionally one catches fire with the driver (Rory),
but when the fairways get this hard to hit, it becomes far more random(somebody's gotta win) as they all are in the rough.
Bombing driver(or 3 wood on hook tee shots) is absolutely the best strategy.
Hit it, Go find it.
The deep rough only encourages it as that Gap wedge from 160 is  easier than that 3 iron from 240(and infinitely easier than 240 from the rough) , and the odds are about even that either club off the tee will find the fairway, exponentially increasing the odds of a birdie chance for the player hitting driver.Another reason to hit driver is that the bunkers have been "modernized" to occur most often somewhere in the driver landing/rolling zone, which is a far better outcome than 5 inch rough.






Strategy as we know it is dead on classic courses.(not really dead, just different)
Equipment has a lot to do with this, but analytics, conditioning and skill sets do as well.


All that said, I'm enjoying this US Open a lot.
Also, it's great to see interesting greens with lots of slope and tilt, and "arcing putts" as Azinger keeps calling them.
Big difference in speed between uphill, downhill and sidehill putts.
The green design and hole placements are the challenge, not some USGA induced superfast bumpy, stressed plinko.
If these greens had less slope, Wolff would've shot in the 50's yesterday, as he missed multiple putts inside 10 feet(which were tough putts due to green design).
« Last Edit: September 20, 2020, 11:08:15 AM by jeffwarne »
"Let's slow the damned greens down a bit, not take the character out of them." Tom Doak
"Take their focus off the grass and put it squarely on interesting golf." Don Mahaffey

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