Since we're doing bored speculation about bored speculation, here's mine:
1. There will be no Masters this year. Those guys do things their way and don't need the money, and I just don't see them competing against football (if there's football...) AND the possibility that the course won't look the way they want it to.
2. There won't be a PGA this year, though I am less certain about this one.
3. There won't be a British Open this year because I don't think that bringing lots of folks on airplanes to hotels located on islands while we are (hopefully) winding down from a pandemic AND hoping to avoid a fall second wave, as in 1918) will be viewed as sensible.
4. Of the 4, the US Open seems to me to be the most likely to happen, because I have the least confidence in the USGA to make good decisions about this stuff AND because I think those guys are the opposite of the guys that run ANGC in terms of pursuing money and being willing to put people at risk to do it.
I think lots of sporting events will go the way of March Madness this year, if only because of the uncertainty of the current situation and the possibility of a second wave in the fall. It's possible that there will be some things played in empty arenas, but even that doesn't address the liability issues for the the people that would be putting athletes at risk thru travel and lodging and contact.
I think a lot of folks in the sports industry are going to have to do the same thing that several million servers have had to do in the restaurant/bar industry, among many others; bite the bullet. Their advantage, of course, is that they actually can afford a bullet to bite.
IF there is only one major played, it will be The Masters.
It wa splayed in 1942 on the heels of the December attack in Dec 1942.
their infrastructure is mostly permanant, and they don't have a knucklehead committee like the USGA, who clearly are afraid of lawyers.
And while they don't need the money, they are acutely aware of their financial impact on a small city like Augusta(compared to SF or NYC)
As you said, IF there is a football season...The competition against football is laughable as the week's big college games can be easily moved to evening (as they often are) and anyone that would choose a meaningless(in te fight to go .500 and make the playoff tournament) NFL game that time of year for The Masters, shouldn't be considered.
They don't have any commercials and CBS doesn't pay them much for the rights so it's not like they're killing CBS revenue.(other than football)
Jeff,
A couple of rebuttal points:
1. It is going to a long time before people, even those with Masters badges, are going to feel good about travel, lodging, and especially crowds. Which sets up the possibility of a completely different market for badges, AND a completely different group of "patrons". I can sort of imagine the toonamint being played with no patrons before I can imagine the ANGC powers allowing a free-for-all black market for badges.
2. If you're a Southerner, then we'll just have to agree to disagree about the football thing. If you're not a Southerner, and haven't spent a football season in SEC country, there is literally NO way for me to overstate the role that college football plays on Saturdays in the fall. IMO, if The Masters is on TV against college football on NBC, ABC, and ESPN, The Masters gets its a** kicked in the Saturday ratings, and it would be even worse on Sunday against the NFL; NFL ratings dwarf every other sport on TV. In 2018, the final round of the Masters had 13 million viewers; there were over 25 NFL regular season games that drew more. The Masters doesn't make the top SEVENTY; it came in just ahead of the Belmont Stakes for 75th! And that's going against only baseball in the first couple of weeks of the season; there wasn't a single baseball game, including the WS, in the top 50 in 2018.
I just can't imagine guys like the ones who run that club letting themselves in for those sorts of things. The USGA might, but ANGC? I would think they would look to build interest for the next year, with Tiger still as the defending champ in April of 2021.