What if Tiger Wins The Masters?

[Kalen Braley]

I understand Jacks point here..

,,,but 12 was the hardest hole on the course Sunday in relation to par. Only 6 birdies with 17 scores worse than par and two triples or worse.  Sure you can take more club but going long is no bargain either as it brings the water in play on the 2nd shot, which seems even worse.  Just a tough/penal hole especially with that Sunday pin and swirling wind above the trees.

[Jeff Evagues]

With the greens slower than normal on Sunday the back fringe would not have been that bad.

[Peter Flory]

Hitting in the water is rarely the correct way to play a golf hole. 

[Jim Nugent]

Just saw an interesting stat.  In 1997 Tiger hit 55 greens, or 76.4% GIR.  This year he hit 58 greens, or 81%.  That's despite averaging 29 yards less off the tee (294 vs 323). 

So even though he hit it far shorter this year... had longer clubs into the greens... and was playing a much tighter, longer course, his tee-to-green game looks stronger even than when he blew the field away by 12 strokes (this year he won by 1).  Suggests...

a) he may have struck the ball better than ever, at least at the Masters, and
b) the field is far closer to him now that it was back then.  If so one reason for this is probably the huge increase in driving distance.  In 1997 Tiger led the 2nd-longest hitter by 25 yards per drive.  This year he trailed the leader by about 20 yards.   

Other interesting stat: compared to 1997 we can trace the entire difference in his scoring to the par 5s.  In 1997, he played them 13 under.  This year he played them 8 under.  Play the par 5s in 13 under this year, and he again shoots 270.  Shows the difference when you hit wedges and short irons on your second shots, as he did in '97, against middle irons or even fairway metals, as he did in 2019. 

Looked to me like Tiger repeatedly grazed the cup this year at Augusta.  He seemed to roll the putts well, but tons just didn't quite fall.  Makes me wonder what he might score, if more of those putts start dropping. 

[Jeff Schley]

Just saw an interesting stat.  In 1997 Tiger hit 55 greens, or 76.4% GIR.  This year he hit 58 greens, or 81%.  That's despite averaging 29 yards less off the tee (294 vs 323). 

So even though he hit it far shorter this year... had longer clubs into the greens... and was playing a much tighter, longer course, his tee-to-green game looks stronger even than when he blew the field away by 12 strokes (this year he won by 1).  Suggests...

a) he may have struck the ball better than ever, at least at the Masters, and
b) the field is far closer to him now that it was back then.  If so one reason for this is probably the huge increase in driving distance.  In 1997 Tiger led the 2nd-longest hitter by 25 yards per drive.  This year he trailed the leader by about 20 yards.   

Other interesting stat: compared to 1997 we can trace the entire difference in his scoring to the par 5s.  In 1997, he played them 13 under.  This year he played them 8 under.  Play the par 5s in 13 under this year, and he again shoots 270.  Shows the difference when you hit wedges and short irons on your second shots, as he did in '97, against middle irons or even fairway metals, as he did in 2019. 

Looked to me like Tiger repeatedly grazed the cup this year at Augusta.  He seemed to roll the putts well, but tons just didn't quite fall.  Makes me wonder what he might score, if more of those putts start dropping.

Jim good insights and stat hunting.  Hard to believe he is shorter now with the technology available.  I'm not sure what his swing speed and ball speed was back then, but I'm sure it was much higher.

Because of his driver problems, he is using the 3 wood off the tee quite a bit more, which would account for some of the distance loss and that was needed to find his accuracy. I still believe he is the best iron player on tour and one of the top 10 short games.

If he can use his 3 wood more and on par 5's be able to hit his cut driver for accuracy he will always be around because he will hit his irons to places he has birdie looks and his putter was back in the final couple rounds.

As you pointed out the course is totally different than 1997 and kudos for finding another way to win.

[Niall C]

Jim

No idea of how they compile the stats but let me suggest that perhaps back in 1997 Woods was going full throttle whereas as this time there were occasions when he bunted the ball done the fairway with his recently acquired controlled fade. Would that not partially explain some of the difference in drive lengths ?

I think your general conclusion is correct though, in that he's no longer the only big hitter out there. In that regard Molinari's performance was perhaps the most remarkable given how relatively short he is compared to the others.

Niall

[jeffwarne]

Just saw an interesting stat.  In 1997 Tiger hit 55 greens, or 76.4% GIR.  This year he hit 58 greens, or 81%.  That's despite averaging 29 yards less off the tee (294 vs 323). 

So even though he hit it far shorter this year... had longer clubs into the greens... and was playing a much tighter, longer course, his tee-to-green game looks stronger even than when he blew the field away by 12 strokes (this year he won by 1).  Suggests...

a) he may have struck the ball better than ever, at least at the Masters, and
b) the field is far closer to him now that it was back then.  If so one reason for this is probably the huge increase in driving distance.  In 1997 Tiger led the 2nd-longest hitter by 25 yards per drive.  This year he trailed the leader by about 20 yards.   

Other interesting stat: compared to 1997 we can trace the entire difference in his scoring to the par 5s.  In 1997, he played them 13 under.  This year he played them 8 under.  Play the par 5s in 13 under this year, and he again shoots 270.  Shows the difference when you hit wedges and short irons on your second shots, as he did in '97, against middle irons or even fairway metals, as he did in 2019. 

Looked to me like Tiger repeatedly grazed the cup this year at Augusta.  He seemed to roll the putts well, but tons just didn't quite fall.  Makes me wonder what he might score, if more of those putts start dropping.

Jim good insights and stat hunting.  Hard to believe he is shorter now with the technology available.  I'm not sure what his swing speed and ball speed was back then, but I'm sure it was much higher.

Because of his driver problems, he is using the 3 wood off the tee quite a bit more, which would account for some of the distance loss and that was needed to find his accuracy. I still believe he is the best iron player on tour and one of the top 10 short games.

If he can use his 3 wood more and on par 5's be able to hit his cut driver for accuracy he will always be around because he will hit his irons to places he has birdie looks and his putter was back in the final couple rounds.

As you pointed out the course is totally different than 1997 and kudos for finding another way to win.

Nice stats Jim and nice commentary Jeff.


The differences in this year and '97 were that 97 was playing firm and fast in the fairways (with firmer greens as well)
AND
The firmer greens in '97, combined with Tiger's 25 yard distance advantage are how he separated himself from the field.
In '97 after a 40 on the front nine(at which point I quit following him) he never missed another putt inside 9 feet for the remaining 63 holes.


This year it POURED on Monday afternoon and Tuesday , and rained hard at least 2 other days/nights, and was very sticky and humid all week.
Tiger certainly hits it as far now as he did in '97, but he wasn't getting 50-60 yards of roll as he got by carrying onto firm downslopes in 97, and those downslopes are further out now.


He obviously hit it great this year and putted well, but did not DOMINATE in distance AND putting as he did in '97.
Additionally, this year he had to contend with the increased competition/athleticism he inspired and the impotent USGA have further enabled.

[Steve Kline]

You may not be able to find them if your aren't a member of BirdieFire, but Scott Fawcett put together three excellent videos on Tiger's ball striking, mental focus, and putting that helped him when the Masters.


On ball striking, Tiger had perfect strategy. He almost always kept it on the fat side of the green. He routinely aimed there and let the percentages work in his favor to hit it close.


On putting, Tiger had perfect speed control almost all four rounds. Almost every putt stopped within 1-2 feet of the hole. He didn't try to make putts. He simply let the hole get in the way.


On mental focus, what is there really to say other than Tiger has supreme mental control. Fawcett played the last few holes of Tiger's shots without audio. You can see the crowd going wild, but Tiger's face is stone cold. Even when he hit it to a foot at 16, Tiger didn't even smirk. On 18, once he put to a foot, his face was that of a stone cold killer. Tiger never reacted emotionally to any shot. He just accepted everything.


He is still far and away the best iron player in the game. His driving is now acceptable. He is a threat every tournament now. If he has a hot putting week he will win fairly easily. With an average putting week, he will threaten to win.