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Philip Hensley

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Re: Torrey Pines and Brandel Chamblee
« Reply #25 on: January 31, 2019, 11:22:26 AM »
Tom Doak's recent post (talking about his conversations with Brooks Koepka) about defending the middle of the green seems like a much more interesting (and successful) way of testing the pros than narrowing fairways and growing up rough.

George Pazin

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Re: Torrey Pines and Brandel Chamblee
« Reply #26 on: February 01, 2019, 02:45:42 PM »
I don't think it's fair to the straight hitters to have wide fairways and short rough. Tournament golf is about testing players to see whose game is the best that week; 50 yard wide fairways with short rough doesn't test a critical part of the game.
I reject that for the game to be "fair" short hitters have to have a good chance to play well. Is Harbour Town unfair because players all bunt the ball to the corners of tiny fairways surrounded by trees equally as "unfair" because it doesn't reward a different segment of golfers very much?

Different setups test different things. The ability to hit the ball far is a skill - speed is a skill in almost every sport (in fact it may be a defining characteristic that separates sports from games, in the opinions of some).

Now, while I fully agree that if you got to a point where you had five-yard wide fairways and unplayable rough on both sides, you'd be testing luck far more than skill, but on any reasonable range of setups, you're testing the abilities of the golfers within a pretty narrow range to "play golf."

The idea that we need to "help" short hitters is bogus and never really flies anyway, because the difference between long hitters and short hitters isn't going to do much. Phil Mickelson, I think, pointed this out at U.S. Opens, thought for years to be better for short hitters because of the penal rough, but Phil said something like "hey, at the U.S. Open, everyone's gonna miss fairways now and then, so I think the higher speed players have an advantage because when they miss, they're not only closer to the green but they're able to swing faster to get the ball out too."

In 2018 on the PGA Tour, the 10th most accurate driver hit 69.91% of his fairways while the tenth least accurate hit 53.58. Let's suppose the less accurate of those players is 25 yards longer than the accurate one… the accurate one hits 9.78 fairways per round out of 14, while the longer one hits 7.5. That's only two fairways per round where they're playing from further back, and I chose pretty extreme accuracy numbers… while on the other 11+ fairways per round they're 25 yards ahead and in the same condition (fairway or rough) as the short/accurate hitter.

So you can dislike courses that favor longer hitters, but it's still golf, and the ability to hit the ball far with accuracy is a golf skill. It's just one that you perhaps think is rewarded too often or something.

Guys now in PGA Tour events hit driver everywhere, partly because there isn't a penalty for missing fairways
That's not true:
https://thesandtrap.com/gallery/image/41-strokes-gained-table-5-2/

From 180 yards out in the fairway, PGA Tour players average 3.08. You have to go all the way up to about 120 yards out in the rough to find their scoring is about the same. The rough presents a 60-70 yard disadvantage over being in the fairway.

It's just that the math like I showed above works out in their favor: the "inaccurate" guys are only missing 1-2 more fairways than the "accurate" guys, but on every fairway they're 20+ yards closer to the hole (or whatever), and often have another club less in because they hit their 8I as far as the accurate (slow) guy hits his 7I.


Erik, I really like this post, particularly the fact that you broke out the actual numbers. I think a lot of people gloss over when they hear 74%, 58%, etc, so it's better to read the actual numbers.


You're obviously a numbers guy, which I respect since I'm a recovering math geek, so I'll ask: how would you set up the course to challenge the pros best? Do you think narrow fairways and deep rough is the way to go? What do your stats say?


Honest questions, not trying to trip you up with anything.
Big drivers and hot balls are the product of golf course design that rewards the hit one far then hit one high strategy.  Shinny showed everyone how to take care of this whole technology dilemma. - Pat Brockwell, 6/24/04

James Brown

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Re: Torrey Pines and Brandel Chamblee
« Reply #27 on: February 02, 2019, 01:02:59 PM »
Tough and interesting are always gonna be at odds at the top of the game.  That’s nothing new.  The first US Open on a 7000 yard course was in 1937 (!) at Oakland Hills and the winner shot 281.  I am sure that course was less fun to play that Torrey Pines was last week!

JMEvensky

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Re: Torrey Pines and Brandel Chamblee
« Reply #28 on: February 02, 2019, 03:24:22 PM »

Erik, I really like this post, particularly the fact that you broke out the actual numbers. I think a lot of people gloss over when they hear 74%, 58%, etc, so it's better to read the actual numbers.


You're obviously a numbers guy, which I respect since I'm a recovering math geek, so I'll ask: how would you set up the course to challenge the pros best? Do you think narrow fairways and deep rough is the way to go? What do your stats say?


Honest questions, not trying to trip you up with anything.




Same question as George.

Erik J. Barzeski

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Re: Torrey Pines and Brandel Chamblee
« Reply #29 on: February 02, 2019, 04:23:53 PM »
Erik, I really like this post, particularly the fact that you broke out the actual numbers. I think a lot of people gloss over when they hear 74%, 58%, etc, so it's better to read the actual numbers.
Thanks. I mostly shared the stats to dispute the claim that being in the rough doesn't mean anything. It means quite a bit - 60 to 70 yards or so. And also, the "straight hitter" isn't hitting a TON more fairways than the "inaccurate" hitter. They're on the PGA Tour - they're all reasonably accurate, and the difference between "straight" and "wild" is often 1 or 2 fairways per round.

You're obviously a numbers guy, which I respect since I'm a recovering math geek, so I'll ask: how would you set up the course to challenge the pros best? Do you think narrow fairways and deep rough is the way to go? What do your stats say?
Well, it'd depend on the course itself, of course.

Narrow fairways with deep rough just, like Phil Mickelson said, actually give an advantage to the long hitters, because even the "accurate" guys are gonna be in the rough often enough, and they're going to be 30 or whatever yards back on EVERY tee shot.

So I don't know if I can answer the question. I'd likely cut the fairways right to the edges of bunkers, so that players had to worry about the run-out. I'd probably go wider fairways. I'd have rough that's long enough to affect things but tempts players to try recovery shots - so, ultimately not that long. I'd furrow bunkers. I wish Jack had been able to do what he tried years back at The Memorial. The rough would be thickest around the greens.

I'd likely set up a lot of half-par type holes, too, where I could. Holes where players were tempted to hit driver, or where the dogleg came into play.

But yeah, it'd really depend mostly on the course itself.

Two things, though, as to why this opinion carries almost no weight: a) I'm not an architect, and b) I've not set up a tournament for PGA Tour level play. Just a few D3 college events. :D
Erik J. Barzeski @iacas
Author, Lowest Score Wins, Instructor/Coach, and Lifetime Student of the Game.

I generally ignore Rob, Tim, Garland, and Chris.

Kalen Braley

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Re: Torrey Pines and Brandel Chamblee
« Reply #30 on: February 02, 2019, 04:35:54 PM »
Erik,

I'm not trying to rain on your parade, but I don't understand the "not much difference" bit.  I just checked the stats for 2019 and there is a quite a big difference between best and last.

Jim Furyk leads at 85.7%, while Normal Xiong is last at 39.2%.  Based on an average of 14 fairways per course that's a difference of 12 for the best, and 5.5 for the worst guy.  Over a 4 round tourney, that's (12-5.5) * 4 = 26 fairways,  Are you claiming hitting 26 more fairways in a tournament isn't a huge advantage?

Even when comparing the median guy at 61.9% or 8.5 fairways per round would still hit 12-14 less fairways per tournament.

https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.102.html

Erik J. Barzeski

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Re: Torrey Pines and Brandel Chamblee
« Reply #31 on: February 02, 2019, 07:56:18 PM »
I'm not trying to rain on your parade, but I don't understand the "not much difference" bit.  I just checked the stats for 2019 and there is a quite a big difference between best and last.
Small sample size. I used the 2018 (full year) stats up above. In 2018, the average of the top 5 is 72.878%. The average of the bottom 5 is 51.376. That's a difference of 21%, or 3 fairways per round. And that's comparing the very top versus the very bottom.

At 15th from both ends, you're looking at 54.79% and 67.90% - fewer than two fairways per round.

And again, fairways vs. rough accounts for about the equivalent of a 60-yard difference in expected score.
Erik J. Barzeski @iacas
Author, Lowest Score Wins, Instructor/Coach, and Lifetime Student of the Game.

I generally ignore Rob, Tim, Garland, and Chris.

George Pazin

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Re: Torrey Pines and Brandel Chamblee
« Reply #32 on: February 03, 2019, 03:25:21 PM »
Thanks for the thoughtful response, Erik. I’ve always thought the opinion espoused by Chamblee (in this instance) of “narrow the fairways and deepen the rough” was really a poorly thought out, knee jerk type of response to the “problem” of long hitters dominating. There are so many examples to the contrary throughout the entire history of golf, and all narrow deep rough does is make things more boring, imho.


Set up is always a tough thing, so dependent on the architecture of the course and the nature of the competitors/competition.


I haven’t had the pleasure of playing TP, but I will say, high def tv has improved the enjoyment I get from watching it on tv. Well, that plus it is snowy and freezing in the Burgh at that time of the year.....
Big drivers and hot balls are the product of golf course design that rewards the hit one far then hit one high strategy.  Shinny showed everyone how to take care of this whole technology dilemma. - Pat Brockwell, 6/24/04

JESII

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Re: Torrey Pines and Brandel Chamblee
« Reply #33 on: February 04, 2019, 12:55:36 PM »
In my opinion, there's no way to build a course that's at once challenging for the Tour guys and enjoyable/interesting for the everyday player.


So we should stop that dual pursuit...


But...since the issue really is converting an everyday course to Tour use the focus of preparation should be on finding out who controls their ball the best. Erik's point that the spread from accurate to inaccurate is not all that great and we know the short hitters are really not all that short so how do we give everyone a fair chance at shining?


Rock hard greens...when the ball won't stop from the rough, angles matter which means position matters. This weekend's greens looked rock hard for 3 days and the leaderboard seemed to reflect a wide range of players with Rickie, at his best, really being an amalgamation of all. Length with control and a strategic approach and great execution.

Niall C

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Re: Torrey Pines and Brandel Chamblee
« Reply #34 on: February 04, 2019, 01:06:18 PM »
In my opinion, there's no way to build a course that's at once challenging for the Tour guys and enjoyable/interesting for the everyday player.



Jim

I fundamentally disagree but then I'd caveat that by saying that challenging the tour pro doesn't necessarily mean stopping them break par.

Niall

JESII

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Re: Torrey Pines and Brandel Chamblee
« Reply #35 on: February 04, 2019, 01:24:44 PM »
But can they shoot 24+ under par?