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Rick Lane

  • Karma: +0/-0
Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« on: September 27, 2017, 09:25:55 AM »
Sometimes, my friends and I muse about the effect weather (rain/wind mostly) has on the difficulty of the course that day.   We opine that maybe there should be  a system, run by the local pro and sanctioned by the local association, of assigning a "1" for normal day, and "2" for difficult day, where the course rating and slope are increased because of the weather.    For sure, our scoring is higher on those days, and if there is a month of more than a little bad weather, it would drive everyones handicap up, which would seem not fair as we travel?   What do you all think?

Ed Brzezowski

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2017, 09:39:45 AM »
We already adjust for altitude and seasonal winds..

I believe it would be impossible to rate for rain. They do not in Scotland and lord knows that is the home of crappy weather.
We have a pool and a pond, the pond would be good for you.

David_Tepper

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2017, 09:43:10 AM »
Rick -

Score posted in competitions for handicap calculation purposes in Britain are adjusted to reflect the weather conditions, based on what the field shoots relative to par on that day.

DT

Ed Brzezowski

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2017, 09:53:31 AM »
Rick -

Score posted in competitions for handicap calculation purposes in Britain are adjusted to reflect the weather conditions, based on what the field shoots relative to par on that day.

DT

But that will probably change when the " one world handicap" program is adopted    correct?
We have a pool and a pond, the pond would be good for you.

Sean_A

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2017, 09:58:28 AM »
Rick -

Score posted in competitions for handicap calculation purposes in Britain are adjusted to reflect the weather conditions, based on what the field shoots relative to par on that day.

DT

But that will probably change when the " one world handicap" program is adopted    correct?

It would be a shocker should any new system not take into account weather for comps.  You will see UK handicaps rise 1-3 shots...when folks in the US already think their handicaps are too high!  I know folks around here like to wax poetically about 30, 40 & 50 mph winds, but in truth a 15 mph wind is enough to destroy a card.

Ciao
« Last Edit: September 27, 2017, 10:09:46 AM by Sean_A »
New plays planned for 2024: Nothing

Rick Lane

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2017, 10:35:23 AM »
Rick -

Score posted in competitions for handicap calculation purposes in Britain are adjusted to reflect the weather conditions, based on what the field shoots relative to par on that day.

DT

Poking around the internet, there seems to be some rumor that the new system will use the slope/rating system PLUS, a daily system of adjustment as you mention above?    If so, it would capture weather for sure, but there would have to be a daily calculation at every course in the world of scores that day, which seems possible?

Jason Topp

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2017, 10:41:35 AM »
Theoretically the US System takes weather into account in setting a course rating but the system does not work all that well on exposed courses that experience highly variable weather.  There are days on my course where I know it is extremely unlikely I will shoot my handicap and others where shooting my handicap is a mediocre score.  Supposedly for that reason, some clubs have declined to have their courses rated and one may not post scores for handicap purposes at such courses. 


However, beyond weather, there are all sorts of variables that impact how difficult a course plays.  Scores in tournament play, particularly stroke play tournaments, tend to be higher because the greens are firmer, the pin positions are trickier and everyone is putting out on every hole.  In my area, the grass is much thicker in June due to something about that stage in its growing cycle.  In the fall, the un-mowed areas on my course are basically out of bounds because bluestem plants grow to shoulder height by that time of the year.  In July - the course is often soft due to soaking rains that make the course play much longer but make it much easier to hold a green on approach shots.
I have always favored eliminating the current method for rating courses which is based on length adjusted for a number of difficulty factors as applied to a hypothetical scratch player who hits the ball 250 yards off the tee (I cannot think of many scratch players that come close to meeting that description) in favor of a rating based on scoring statistics.  Even that approach, however, will not account for day to day variation and I am unsure how you could make such an adjustment on a statistically valid basis or whether such an effort would be worthwhile.

Overall I think it all comes out in the wash.

Joe Schackman

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2017, 10:46:16 AM »
I get the sentiment but I think this is one of those things that is smoothed out in larger sample sizes.

If you play 1 round a year then the weather/course conditions will have an exorbitant impact on your handicap.

If you play 100 rounds in a year then that stuff is smoothed out (for every "hard" day there is enough "easy" days to offset it).

Not sure there is a fair/objective way to build in those types of conditions.

Edit: The "one round" comment is meant to be illustrative. I realize handicap takes into account a # of scores and drops high rounds, etc.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2017, 10:49:10 AM by Joe Schackman »

Sean_A

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2017, 11:19:37 AM »
I beg to differ.  In the UK we have basically two seasons...spring and fall  8)   At my club, when the rough is down in the winter, the wind often comes from directions (north and east) which make the course play very difficult...plus distance is cut way down.  In the summer the prevailing winds of south and west come more into play, but the rough is well up.  If the weather was taken out of the picture the course rating would have to jump from the current SSS of 72 (par 71) off the daily tee.   

This is one more reason why I don't believe daily scores should be used for handicapping.  Using comp scores is a controlled environment and a much better measure.

Ciao
New plays planned for 2024: Nothing

SL_Solow

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2017, 12:09:13 PM »
The word is that an algorithm has been developed and will be tested prior to the implementation of the one world system.  The premise is that all scores at a given course each day will be matched against handicaps and a determination will be made whether there is sufficient variance to adjust the rating/slope for that day.  Presumably, all of this will be done by computer so that the adjustments will be reflected on a daily basis.  Given past performance, I suggest that there is substantial execution risk.

Matthew Essig

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2017, 12:19:30 PM »
I can say with 100% confidence that a couple of my home courses that experience 15-25mph winds on about half the days they are open do not have rating/slopes that factor this nearly daily wind in.


To be fair, one of the courses wasn't even BUILT with the wind in mind, so that shows how much, in general, people care I guess.
"Good GCA should offer an interesting golfing challenge to the golfer not a difficult golfing challenge." Jon Wiggett

Jim Hoak

  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2017, 01:00:15 PM »
Stay tuned.  As I understand it, the new system being developed will do this.

Kalen Braley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2017, 01:17:24 PM »
I'll be interested in how they try to account for this at a place like Bandon where the prevailing winds are one direction half the year and a completely different one the other half...

Rick Lane

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2017, 02:18:20 PM »
The word is that an algorithm has been developed and will be tested prior to the implementation of the one world system.  The premise is that all scores at a given course each day will be matched against handicaps and a determination will be made whether there is sufficient variance to adjust the rating/slope for that day.  Presumably, all of this will be done by computer so that the adjustments will be reflected on a daily basis.  Given past performance, I suggest that there is substantial execution risk.

I see things online that also point to this sort of solution, which would at the end of each day (EVERY DAY!) modify the course rating and/or slope based on the total golfers performance that day relative to their handicaps.  A mix of the British system and the US system.  I think there are six systems worldwide now.  So a system like GHIN would have to grind away each night at each club to determine what the rating was the previous day, therefore what each golfers hcp index was that day at that course.  Its only one more variable, and if using distributed computer power, not that much CPU effort?

Jim Hoak

  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2017, 07:19:22 PM »
The algorithm will be set up to pick up all scores from a defined geographic area for that day.  It won't be perfect, but it will be better than what we have now.

Ken Moum

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2017, 08:40:47 PM »
Because i think that the GHIN system is broken beyond repair, when I was recently in Scotland for seven weeks I talked to a number of Scots about the fact that our system requires posting every score you make, the reactions were interesting.


Not one of them could understand why on earth a handicap system would include scores from what they call bounce rounds.


When I told them there was a movement afoot to create a one world handicap based on our system every single one of them had the same reaction.... "They better not!"


IMHO it's going to be interesting when this gets floated among the people actually playing golf at the club level in Scotland.


FWIW, I believe that any system that uses scores made in casual rounds for establishing handicaps is complete and utter BS. 


IF the goal of a handicap is to allow players of disparate ability to compete on a RELATIVELY equal basis then using casual rounds almost completely ignores one of the primary skills in golf... that skill is the ability to play well when you want to.


And that doesn't even address the fact that the slope system is so poorly applied that it fails to do what it purports to do. Every golfer knows that players whose scores are made on a course with a 140+ slope have a huge edge over players whose scores are made a course with a slope around 120.


And that's exactly what Slope is supposed to do....


Aw nevermind, I've given up on this issue.


K
Over time, the guy in the ideal position derives an advantage, and delivering him further  advantage is not worth making the rest of the players suffer at the expense of fun, variety, and ultimately cost -- Jeff Warne, 12-08-2010

Sean_A

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2017, 09:48:16 PM »
There is no way I am going to start carrying a card for friendlies then post a fake score based on assumptions.  I didn't do that in the US...only posted scores when I holed out and had a witness.  For the system to really work it has to focus on players who actually play in a controlled environment where scores can be validated.  In the US this is a very small percentage of golfers.  Trying to provide caps for the casual golfer who rarely if ever plays comps...which begs the question of why a cap is then needed...is simply not viable nor necessary. 

Ciao
New plays planned for 2024: Nothing

Tom_Doak

  • Karma: +3/-1
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2017, 05:05:50 AM »
The word is that an algorithm has been developed and will be tested prior to the implementation of the one world system.  The premise is that all scores at a given course each day will be matched against handicaps and a determination will be made whether there is sufficient variance to adjust the rating/slope for that day.  Presumably, all of this will be done by computer so that the adjustments will be reflected on a daily basis.  Given past performance, I suggest that there is substantial execution risk.


In the era of big data, the slope rating as calculated today should become meaningless ... if you record all scores by players on each given day and you know what the handicaps of the players are, then it's just a bit of math to determine the daily "slope" rating and what adjustments should be made for higher handicappers, including presumably more on windy days.  [On a windy day at Crystal Downs, you might as well just throw out all the scores, as almost nobody is going to post one of their ten lowest scores in such conditions.]


Of course, if they keep going with the liberalization of the Rules, we may get to the point where you can just take a drop when you feel like it and post any score you please  ;)

Erik J. Barzeski

  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2017, 09:58:13 PM »
The word is that an algorithm has been developed and will be tested prior to the implementation of the one world system.  The premise is that all scores at a given course each day will be matched against handicaps and a determination will be made whether there is sufficient variance to adjust the rating/slope for that day.  Presumably, all of this will be done by computer so that the adjustments will be reflected on a daily basis.  Given past performance, I suggest that there is substantial execution risk.
This is basically what they're going to do. With the idea that if anything is suspect (not a statistically significant enough number of rounds that day, not enough of a change, etc.) that they will do nothing to the CR/Slope for that day.

It's just some basic math. Shouldn't be too difficult.
Erik J. Barzeski @iacas
Author, Lowest Score Wins, Instructor/Coach, and Lifetime Student of the Game.

I generally ignore Rob, Tim, Garland, and Chris.

Jerry Kluger

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2017, 07:43:48 AM »
My question with respect to slope is the severity of the green contours.  When I played Pinehurst #2 one of my reactions was how low the slope ratings are with those greens and green complexes.

Jason Connor

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2017, 08:02:39 AM »
OP, you're absolutely correct.  But it's not just weather, it's wind, it's rough, it's whatever.


As a PhD statistician / golfer, I don't believe we should have ratings done by people.


Rather everyone turns in their cards & at the end of the month you get your new handicap.  basically let the computer identify whether the course was hard that day and adjust accordingly.
We discovered that in good company there is no such thing as a bad golf course.  - James Dodson

Jim Nugent

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2017, 02:42:03 PM »
OP, you're absolutely correct.  But it's not just weather, it's wind, it's rough, it's whatever.


As a PhD statistician / golfer, I don't believe we should have ratings done by people.


Rather everyone turns in their cards & at the end of the month you get your new handicap.  basically let the computer identify whether the course was hard that day and adjust accordingly.

Jason, how do you establish a baseline to calculate handicap? 

Kalen Braley

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #22 on: September 29, 2017, 02:47:57 PM »
OP, you're absolutely correct.  But it's not just weather, it's wind, it's rough, it's whatever.


As a PhD statistician / golfer, I don't believe we should have ratings done by people.


Rather everyone turns in their cards & at the end of the month you get your new handicap.  basically let the computer identify whether the course was hard that day and adjust accordingly.

Jason, how do you establish a baseline to calculate handicap?


And thats just the start Jim, how do you account for the 17 capper who shoots 87 one day and 95 the next on the exact same course in similar conditions?  There's far too much variability in the medium to high cappers games to rely just on scores...

Ulrich Mayring

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #23 on: September 30, 2017, 08:45:54 PM »
We had a system like that in Germany and it was so unpopular with golfers that it was abolished after two seasons. The main pain point was that golfers wanted to know their result after the completion of their round. And not after the completion of everyone's round plus the time it takes to input the scores and have the computer do the calculations (basically an all-day thing).

Frequently golfers would go home after their round and not know their new handicap. Also, it would happen occasionally that someone improved his handicap (by his calculation after the round) and rejoiced, but then the computer determined that results had to be adjusted and he would not improve his handicap. Golfers felt like their good result was stolen by the computer.

"I've signed for 38 stableford points and now you're telling me I only get 36??"

"I came to the club today and learned that the computer changed my handicap last week!"

Lesson learned: results are results, don't change them after the fact.

Ulrich
Golf Course Exposé (300+ courses reviewed), Golf CV (how I keep track of 'em)

Sean_A

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Course Rating/Slope and Weather
« Reply #24 on: October 01, 2017, 04:52:43 AM »
We had a system like that in Germany and it was so unpopular with golfers that it was abolished after two seasons. The main pain point was that golfers wanted to know their result after the completion of their round. And not after the completion of everyone's round plus the time it takes to input the scores and have the computer do the calculations (basically an all-day thing).

Frequently golfers would go home after their round and not know their new handicap. Also, it would happen occasionally that someone improved his handicap (by his calculation after the round) and rejoiced, but then the computer determined that results had to be adjusted and he would not improve his handicap. Golfers felt like their good result was stolen by the computer.

"I've signed for 38 stableford points and now you're telling me I only get 36??"

"I came to the club today and learned that the computer changed my handicap last week!"

Lesson learned: results are results, don't change them after the fact.

Ulrich


Ulrich


In the UK nobody is sure of their new handicap until all scores are in just as you don't know the results until all scores are in.  You have completely lost me with your point. 


Ciao
New plays planned for 2024: Nothing