Par Breaker Roll Call

[Mike Hendren]

The interesting thread on the removal of par form the scorecard of classic courses has me wondering:  Who among the 1500 here have broken 70 this year on a course exceeding 6,300 yards?  I don't believe this is off-topic, but rather will shed some light on a false underlying premise here.

Thanks for participating.

Mike

[Ian Mackenzie]

Yes...twice at my par 72 home course.
Once from 6550 and once from 6950.

[Rob Marshall]

3 times at my home course which is 6400 from the white tees. Par is 71

[Thomas Dai]

Assume 6,300 yds par 72. No wind. Flat holes. Average roll.
4 x par-3's at say 140, 155, 170, 185 = 650 yds
4 x par-5's at say 480, 480, 490, 500 = 1,950 yds
10 x par-4's at 5x340, 5x400 = 3,700 yds


Assume a player hits a driver 250 yds and a 5-iron 170. This player is able to reach every green in regulation so a par round is possible without any up-n-downs.


Now assume a player of equal ball striking ability but one who hits a driver only yds 200 and a 5-iron 140 yds. And yes there are players who do this. Older ones and those of limited strength/physique etc. This player cannot reach every green in regulation so without some up-n-downs or a round with few putts a par round is not possible.


Okay you can have variable conclusions with variable assumptions but I remain to be convinced that the following is not the case - once a reasonable level of skill has been achieved then the key element in gross scoring is how far the indivual is physically able to hit the ball.


Atb

[Adam Warren]

A couple times at my home course with the lowest being 67 from 6700 yards.  Also, a round of 66 at a course that was once my home course, but that was around 6000 yards I believe that day.

[JESII]

Thomas Dai,


Why would you not assume a player should 1 putt on occasion?

[Thomas Dai]

Thomas Dai,


Why would you not assume a player should 1 putt on occasion?

[Thomas Dai]

Because it's an unreasonable assumption. How often do players 1 putt after their shot to the green was hit with clubs like fairway metals, hybrids, long irons, even mid irons? Not many I venture to suggest.
Atb

[Brad Tufts]

Twice at Tedesco, 6450 par 70...a 67 and a 68.

[Steve Fekety]

Once this year.  69 and bogey free at Tatum Ranch approximately 6400. YTD, 5 other sub par rounds, but not sub 70.  I break 70 a time or two a year.  Lowest was 66 at Pumpkin Ridge - Ghost Creek (par 71 at 6450).

[Andy Stamm]

69 last week on the Old. 6721 yards, par 72, SS 73. That's my only competition round in the 60s this year. Very little wind and very soft for this time of year.

[JESII]

Because it's an unreasonable assumption. How often do players 1 putt after their shot to the green was hit with clubs like fairway metals, hybrids, long irons, even mid irons? Not many I venture to suggest.
Atb

Thomas,


Am I understanding your position correctly? Are you saying the player that hits their driver and 5 iron 340 yards is an equal hitter of the ball to the player that hits those same two clubs 420 yards? I believe you've equalized their quality of strike with the phrase "once a reasonable level of skill has been achieved".


If this is your position, I'll have to ask you how you think Jordan Spieth won The Open Championship last month...

[JESII]

The play on and around the greens is more important to ones final result than anything that happens before. You're eliminating it entirely from an evaluation of competing players...

[Joe_Tucholski]

Once in the last year, ending a 10 year streak since the last time I was in the 60's.


What is the premise?

[Thomas Dai]

Jim,

A couple of points.

The quality of ball striking can be equal for a short hitter or a longer hitting. The pureness of strike from the face of the club. A shot hit to the same standard, the same quality of strike, by a physically stronger person will go further than for a physically weaker player.

The closer the player is to the green the easier the next shot becomes....and closer depends on how far the tee shot has travelled, which depends on how physically strong the player is when equal quality ball striking occurs.

It's easier to hit say a 9-iron as the second shot to a 400 yd par-4 than to hit a 3-wood. 9-iron second shots usually mean easy pars and some birdies. 3-wood second shots on par-4's usually mean a missed green and the need for an up-n-done to even achieve par. Birdies on par-4's when a 3-wood has been used for the second shot are pretty rare.

Single putts come from chipping and pitching and bunker play and short irons. They are rarely from shots with anything longer than a short iron.

If a player is physically capable of hitting the ball further they will be hitting less long clubs and more short clubs into greens and this means less misses and the likelihood of more single putts.

As to The Open last week, whilst the winner may not be super long he isn't exactly short and there is a big difference between a competition over one 18-hole round and 72-holes played over 4 days.

Many years ago I played regularly with two blokes one if whom played off 1 and was a very long hitter and the other guy played off 5 but was a notably short hitter. Both hit the ball, the quality of ball strike, about the same and were equally good on and around the greens. The 5 hccpper was regularly peeved that he couldn't beat the 1 hccpper on gross score. The 1 hcpper however, always said the 5 hccpper was actually the better player because he had to hit much longer clubs into all the greens.

To kind of summerise, if the player is a short hitter, irrespective of how good the quality of their ball striking is, they are unlikely to break par on the yardage of course mentioned in the first post and broken down into more specifics by my post. Drop the yardage and the odds increase. Next question though is how far do you drop the yardage?

Atb

[Mark Pearce]

Jim,


You're being kind of obtuse.  I'm a 12 handicapper and I'm very disappointed if, on average, I'm not closer to the hole with a 9 iron than with a 3 wood.  Now if I was a really good player, I'd be even more upset if that wasn't the case.  Of course for players who hit the ball as well as each other, the longer hitter will be the better player, if their short game is the same.  To argue that long hitting isn't an advantage is perverse.  There's nothing wrong with that, by the way.  There's no reason at all that power should not be an advantage in golf, just as it is in most (all?) sports.  And of course, sometimes a freakishly good short game can more than compensate for length (but please don't pretend Jordan Spieth is a short hitter, he isn't).  On average, however, the longer hitter is the lower handicap and for good reason.

[Mark Pearce]

Spieth averages 294 off the tee.  Only 20 yards behind Dustin Johnson, who is first and pretty much in the middle of the field.  I know 20 yards is a decent distance.  But his short game is freakishly good and 294 yards is a long way.  He is not a good choice of player to demonstrate anything because he is so far from the norm, as is DJ.

[Steve Lang]

   Bogey,


Does 20 years ago count on a 6700 yd course?


Just wondering

[JESII]

My objection to Thomas' comments is that he takes distance out of the equation that computes ball striking quality.


I happily admit and agree that there are plenty of good (great) ball strikers who don't hit it as far as some. I'm sorry, but if two players each hit the ball square and straight and the correct distance but one hits it 20% - 25% further, that one is a superior ball striker. It is so because, as you say, the rest of the game becomes easier for him. On the driving range, we can call it a draw.


Jordan Speith came into it because he's an example of something that happens at all levels of golf. Thomas suggested one putting doesn't matter in a conversation about ones ability, or likelihood, of breaking par. He says scoring is all about distance. I didn't suggest Speith was short among the worlds golf population but among those he beat at Birkdale, he is both short and crooked.


Success against relatively equal overall golfers...say, the B flight in a club competition sorted by handicap, or The Open Championship is about getting the ball in the hole quickly for your caliber. This might mean two putting where others three putt.

[A.G._Crockett]

The play on and around the greens is more important to ones final result than anything that happens before. You're eliminating it entirely from an evaluation of competing players...

Jim,
With all due respect, this is not correct.  Mark Broadie's research, which is unlike anything that has preceded it, shows beyond a doubt that the single largest factor in scoring differences at any level of golf is proximity of approach, not putting.  It's true on Tour, it's true among highly skilled amateurs, and it's true at the local muni.  And, of course, the link between hitting the ball farther (and thus hitting shorter clubs into greens) is critical to proximity of approach. 

If you haven't read "Every Shot Counts", I'd recommend it highly; it is groundbreaking research.

That does NOT mean that for a single player in a single round, long putts aren't made.  But the distance at which Tour pros exceed 50% of putts made is less than 10'; hitting it close is where they make their money.  And, not surprisingly, the driving stats correspond to the money list MUCH more closely than the putting stats year in and year out.  (BTW, the putting stat where the pros ARE great is three putt avoidance.)

[A.G._Crockett]

My objection to Thomas' comments is that he takes distance out of the equation that computes ball striking quality.


I happily admit and agree that there are plenty of good (great) ball strikers who don't hit it as far as some. I'm sorry, but if two players each hit the ball square and straight and the correct distance but one hits it 20% - 25% further, that one is a superior ball striker. It is so because, as you say, the rest of the game becomes easier for him. On the driving range, we can call it a draw.


Jordan Speith came into it because he's an example of something that happens at all levels of golf. Thomas suggested one putting doesn't matter in a conversation about ones ability, or likelihood, of breaking par. He says scoring is all about distance. I didn't suggest Speith was short among the worlds golf population but among those he beat at Birkdale, he is both short and crooked.


Success against relatively equal overall golfers...say, the B flight in a club competition sorted by handicap, or The Open Championship is about getting the ball in the hole quickly for your caliber. This might mean two putting where others three putt.

I think you should reread what Thomas wrote.  I read it exactly the opposite way; that once one is able to make consistent, solid contact and hit the ball reasonably straight, then distance becomes really critical.  And so if you're hitting long clubs into greens because you are short off the tee, you won't be close enough to make very many putts, and you won't break par.

Am I reading him incorrectly?

[Jason Thurman]

I, for one, am interested in seeing where this thread is going. It would be great if the guys who are posting off-topic bullshit in response to off-topic bullshit could move to PM or something. Given that my low score on the year is a 75, I'll be doing the same.

[Peter Pallotta]

Jason - it was clear where this thread was going even before anyone posted.
AG - next Broadie will be suggesting the average golfer lay up on every par 4 and come in with a wedge....

[Garland Bayley]

Because it's an unreasonable assumption. How often do players 1 putt after their shot to the green was hit with clubs like fairway metals, hybrids, long irons, even mid irons? Not many I venture to suggest.
Atb

Thomas,


Am I understanding your position correctly? Are you saying the player that hits their driver and 5 iron 340 yards is an equal hitter of the ball to the player that hits those same two clubs 420 yards? I believe you've equalized their quality of strike with the phrase "once a reasonable level of skill has been achieved".


If this is your position, I'll have to ask you how you think Jordan Spieth won The Open Championship last month...

Equal hitter yes. Older hitter too.

[JESII]

AG,


In reply #3, Thomas equated the ball striking skills of two players that hit the ball 20% - 25% different distances but of the same quality of strike. I disagree with that notion.


In a conversation about breaking par, he said it was unreasonable to ask the shorter hitter to one-putt a few times if they were going to break par.


Clearly the communication here is not flowing and I'm happy to take the blame but we are talking about breaking par and I'm quite clear on how it can be done by just about any distance hitter.


Maybe we should figure out what he meant by "once a reasonable level of skill has been achieved" and what you mean by "once one is able to make consistent, solid contact and hit the ball reasonably straight, then distance becomes really critical"


There are scratch players that hit the ball like a 10 handicap and chip and putt like a +6 and the inverse type player.
I'm kind of confused about what I'm misunderstanding.




Jason,

Bogey disagrees with the concept that par matters...and several posts or threads recently have discussed it. He's wondering just how many of us actually flirt with par. I imagine it was not an accident that he asked about a full round as opposed to a single hole...which is really where the concept of par impacts a players mindset.

How many people have made a birdie this year?


Edited to try to fix font issue...