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Jason Topp

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Some data regarding driving distance statistics
« on: February 17, 2017, 11:37:07 AM »
I have always been interested in driving distance debates partially because the data and people's perceptions often seem to be inconsistent.  The latest installment is interesting.

The USGA and R&A released a driving distance report that concludes driving distances have remained relatively consistent.  Geoff Shackelford mocks this conclusion and notes a number of pieces of evidence that are more anecdotal.  http://www.geoffshackelford.com/homepage/2017/2/15/usga-ra-declare-distance-gains-not-happening-and-positively.html

Here is a link to the report:  http://www.usga.org/content/dam/usga/pdf/Equipment/2016%20Distance%20Report.pdf

Is the USGA correct or is Shackelford? 

The PGA Tour radar statistics are available going back to 2007 and I spent some time comparing the 2007 stats to the 2017 stats and found some interesting differences.  In order to get rid of the outliers, I just looked at the 100th ranked player each year.

Driving distances:   2017-292.4   2007- 288.5  - a slight increase but generally consistent with the USGA's views

Carry distances:      2017 - 277   2007 - 266 - I find this one interesting.  Carry distance has increased much more than driving distance.  This suggests that the average drive rolls 15 yards today compared to 22 yards in 2007.

Clubhead speed:  2017 - 116.75   2007 - 112.7 - this is a big jump in clubhead speed that is consistent with the 10 yards extra carry that players have achieved during this time frame (around 2.5 yards per mph of clubhead speed).  Carry efficiency has also gone up during this time period from 2.37 to 2.45 yards per miler per hour of club head speed.  However ball speed has increased less than 3 mph from 165.8 to 168.5.

Launch conditions:  Average launch conditions seem to have improved.  The 100th ranked launch angle has increased slightly from 10.8 to 11.1 and the 100th ranked spin rate has decreased from 2816 to 2500. 

So we have players swinging 4 mph faster, increasing ball speed just less than 3 mph, carrying the ball 11 yards farther but only hitting the ball an extra 4 yards despite hitting the ball with more optimal launch conditions. 

It does not appear that equipment is more effectively translating clubhead speed into ball speed but improved launch conditions are better translating ball speed into carry distance.

Nonetheless, the increased carry distance is not translating into increased total driving distance.  Players are carrying the ball 11 yards farther but only achieving 4 extra yards of distance. 

Obviously, the reason driving distance has not increased as much as carry distance is because the ball rolls less. 

I have come up with three potential explanations.

1.  More 3 woods are being used today.  The stats report seems to pretty effectively rebut that theory.

2.  Less roll could be caused by a different descent angle.  I have a hard time believing such an angle could reduce roll by 25% and the impact of angle should be mitigated by the fact balls are being hit with less spin.

3.  Fairways that do not roll as much - either because they are softer or grain slows the ball down. 

I think door number 3 is the correct answer.  The numbers could be skewed a bit because 2017 is a partial season, but the 100th place stats for the full 2016 season show the same 15 yards distance between average carry distance and average driving distance.   
« Last Edit: February 23, 2017, 11:29:28 AM by Jason Topp »

JESII

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2017, 12:10:10 PM »
Good stuff Jason, thank you.


I think it's easy enough to assume the gradual increase is the result of replacing older guys that lose their status with young guys that have grown up with all the optimization assets.


Someone asked on Shackelfords blog how the USGA could release that report when TM is selling 20 new yards every year...and I think they were serious...

Alex Miller

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #2 on: February 17, 2017, 01:15:49 PM »
Thanks Jason. FWIW I do think option 2 is a contributing factor - low shots roll more. I've seen't it!

Tom_Doak

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #3 on: February 17, 2017, 01:57:35 PM »
Jason:


Thanks for your analysis.  Personally I don't think the equipment has changed a whole lot since they let the cat out of the bag 15 years ago ... they just set their benchmark too late.  But for some reason the static state of equipment has not stopped everyone in the golf business [architects, green committees, Mike Davis, Peter Dawson, et al.] from continuing to insist that courses need to be made tougher before any championship or even for daily member use.


The one thing I noted from your stats was that clubhead speed is 116 mph but ball speed is 168 mph.  How do the physics of that work?  Is the spring effect of the drivers that much?

JESII

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #4 on: February 17, 2017, 02:16:34 PM »
Any chance the mismatch in club head speed increase to ball speed increase is softer golf balls?

Jason Topp

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2017, 02:34:45 PM »
Jason:

Thanks for your analysis.  Personally I don't think the equipment has changed a whole lot since they let the cat out of the bag 15 years ago ... they just set their benchmark too late.  But for some reason the static state of equipment has not stopped everyone in the golf business [architects, green committees, Mike Davis, Peter Dawson, et al.] from continuing to insist that courses need to be made tougher before any championship or even for daily member use.

The one thing I noted from your stats was that clubhead speed is 116 mph but ball speed is 168 mph.  How do the physics of that work?  Is the spring effect of the drivers that much?

Tom:

The theoretical maximum ratio of clubhead speed to ball speed is 1.5 (although some people exceed that slightly).  Thus, at a 116 mph clubhead speed, someone who hit it flush every time would get a ball speed of 174.   

I agree that equipment has not made much of a difference over the last 10 years.  Prior to the explosion in distance in the late 90's and early 2000's driving distance increased by about a yard a year with some yearly variation.  I think those changes and the changes in the last 10 years are due to more athletic players with better swings.   

Jason Topp

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2017, 02:36:12 PM »
Thanks Jason. FWIW I do think option 2 is a contributing factor - low shots roll more. I've seen't it!

Alex - but if you look at the data, the difference in launch angle is extremely low (10.8 vs. 11.1) and spin used to be higher.  I would think those factors would more than cancel out each other.

Jason Topp

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #7 on: February 17, 2017, 02:40:04 PM »
Any chance the mismatch in club head speed increase to ball speed increase is softer golf balls?

Maybe.  I do not claim to know much in that area.  It seems unlikely, however, that the golf ball companies would be willing to sacrifice ball speed with their premium offerings.

Jeff_Brauer

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #8 on: February 17, 2017, 03:55:32 PM »

Probably doesn't add much to the discussion, but I recall asking Notah Begay III (in 2009) about carry and roll.  He said typical roll was about 9.  I asked yards or percent? (Because in the old days, we used to figure 10% roll) and it was yards.  His typical tee shot was 281 yards - 272 carry and 9 yards roll.


I recall it came up when figuring out the design for a 540 yard par 5 from the tips.  I had covered the front of the green, but he wanted an opening to roll on one. His 281 drive and 260 or so 3 Wood put him right on the edge of reaching greens.  Even the 300/270 guys don't reach the long par 5 holes in 2.  Yet, on TV, we see 620 yards holes reached.


I think they should add what % of drives of each length are seen on TV to those stats to get an idea of whether our perceptions are skewed by "fake news" golf division.  Certainly the long bombs get replayed on ESPN more at night, and we probably see long hitters on TV more often.


I think the USGA is right on the averages, and Geoff S is right that at the top of the food chain, there have been bigger gains for the top 1% of the top 1% of golfers who play near PGA Tour level.


The design debate is who to design for?  Certainly, IMHO, the average PGA Tour drive of about 290 makes sense as the max.  There will always be a very few who will overpower the course.


Maybe the average senior tour drives of 275 probably fairly represent the low handicap club player.  But, alas, the study also measures those and shows the 6 hndp player only averages 245!


While I have heard some architects to 900 ft/300 yards for their dogleg points, and I have used 875 ft/291 yards, I think the 850/283 and or 800/267 dog legs are more than enough to design for back tee hazards coming into play, if we consider the actual players who play these courses.


Why worry about the so few 300 yard drivers out there at the expense of all other golfers?
Jeff Brauer, ASGCA Director of Outreach

Jason Topp

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #9 on: February 17, 2017, 04:15:04 PM »

I asked yards or percent? (Because in the old days, we used to figure 10% roll) and it was yards.  His typical tee shot was 281 yards - 272 carry and 9 yards roll.

PGA Tour website lists a 281 average for measured drives in 2009.  Unfortunately, I cannot find a carry number. 

jeffwarne

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #10 on: February 17, 2017, 04:56:50 PM »
One day "measured drives" will be "measured drivers"
Until then it's all relatively irrelavant.


As the ball goes further for a multitude of reasons including increased power and skill,...... and course setup measures are taken to mitigate that-bunkers, rough, firmer faster fairways that run off....etc.
player simly respond by hitting less drivers
"Let's slow the damned greens down a bit, not take the character out of them." Tom Doak
"Take their focus off the grass and put it squarely on interesting golf." Don Mahaffey

Jason Topp

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #11 on: February 17, 2017, 09:50:22 PM »
One day "measured drives" will be "measured drivers"
Until then it's all relatively irrelavant.


As the ball goes further for a multitude of reasons including increased power and skill,...... and course setup measures are taken to mitigate that-bunkers, rough, firmer faster fairways that run off....etc.
player simly respond by hitting less drivers


Jeff - I encourage you to read the report.  They tracked the percentage of time drivers were used and it is around 95%.  I do not think the numbers are that far off. 

Pat Burke

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #12 on: February 20, 2017, 12:38:29 PM »
Geoff beats the drum constantly about the ball, at times, in my oversensitive opinion, to the exclusion of the improvement the players themselves make in taking advantage of the opportunities to pick up yards.At different times since 1997 in my narrow experiences of my own game.1997  with no equipment change.  I hired a trainer, busted my ass, and in a window of mid mArch to the end of August, I picked up a full club in distance and 8-10 yards carry with my driver before injuring my wrist in a bush and losing three years.
When I came back from injury in 2000, I had all the same equipment and went to Callaway to update my driver and fairway woods.  In three hours, I learned that there were new launch ideals, higher/less spin.  I started the day carrying the ball just over 250 and left Carlsbad right back on my 260 carry goal.  Almost three degrees different in launch, and an uncomfortable lack of spin for me that I had to adjust to.
I retired in 2001 due to health issues, and basically stopped playing.  8-10 times a year at most.
At 49 my members convinced me to try again.  I went to Tylor Made.  As a teacher now, knew that launch conditions and equipment had changed again, just due to my own fittings I did as a coach.I was hitting a three year old Callaway when I went there.  I was carrying, on average about 245.  Not bad for an overweight non playing guy.  When I left, I once again had picked up 10+ yards of carry in one day.  Longer/lighter shaft (15 grams lighter one inch longer, less torque), almost 11 degrees loft, 2000-2500 rpm.  Down about 500 rpm.
I do. Or spin the ball well and naturally flightbthe ball too low for today's ideals.  Two years ago I went back to David Leadbetter to try to get my launch numbers up and some more spin.  I was able to add 25+ feet of height to my irons, and a little more with my driver.  Added distance was not the goal, but I was able to turn my loft down on the driver,mand all of a sudden was carrying the driver 265 on average, which is enormous.
Every player improves, mostly in what we learn, and at the Tour level, the ability to make adjustments to the incredible access to data that coaches, equipment companies, and the tour is impressive.
Someone should write a players perspective story on what they have learned and adjusted to over the past the years.  The gains in distance, a definite concern as a golf course junky, are such a stew of causes that beating the drum on one portion starts to sound hollow to many.

Jeff_Brauer

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2017, 01:53:25 PM »
Pat, I think you just did, no?
Jeff Brauer, ASGCA Director of Outreach

George Pazin

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2017, 02:00:33 PM »

The answer to all questions regarding distance increase is simply yes. It doesn't matter what the question is, the answer is yes. :)


In reality, all factors weigh in, to some varying degree for everyone. But my guess is the bulk of the increase is due to: 1) the switch in balls (you used to have to choose between spin and distance, the ball circa 2000 changed that equation); 2) optimization (people used to wonder why X hit it further than Y - now the launch monitors tell us why, and we adjust variables accordingly); and 3) more forgiving drivers (which allow people to swing away - in the past, golfers understood they couldn't swing for the fences for fear of mishits that would really hurt them; now mishits only kind of hurt them).


My gut says 1) was a big factor for all, and 2) and 3) are what allowed the younger generation(s) to really change the game, or at least how it is played.


Does any of this really matter? Well, people are still ripping up classic proven courses because so and so hit a short iron into this long par 4 or short par 5, so I guess that's partly the answer. It would be nice if the owners of a course could be strong enough to resist, but few are.

I think they should add what % of drives of each length are seen on TV to those stats to get an idea of whether our perceptions are skewed by "fake news" golf division.  Certainly the long bombs get replayed on ESPN more at night, and we probably see long hitters on TV more often.


I wonder if this doesn't produce more change than we'd like... I recall visiting a Senior Tour event (back when it was called the Senior Tour...) here in the Burgh. I noticed more than once that they'd list a par 3 at a certain distance from the tips on the plaque at the tee - but it was quite obvious they weren't playing that tee. Do they adjust for this on TV? Sometimes, but certainly not always. Combine that with cutting off doglegs, etc., and you have "fake news" on a golf course. And, sadly, I think it does get people to alter golf courses, which is all I personally care about.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2017, 02:04:58 PM by George Pazin »
Big drivers and hot balls are the product of golf course design that rewards the hit one far then hit one high strategy.  Shinny showed everyone how to take care of this whole technology dilemma. - Pat Brockwell, 6/24/04

JESII

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2017, 02:02:24 PM »
He didn't repeatedly beat the drum, Jeff, he told of his relevant experiences...once so far.


Geoff tells of what he thinks is happening because TaylorMade is selling the idea of 20 yards every year...and he talks about it once a week.


Two wholly different things.

Pat Burke

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #16 on: February 20, 2017, 02:18:36 PM »
Pat, I think you just did, no?


Haha yes, but I meant a number of players from young through old.
It's really interesting as a player and a coach what optimizing equipment can do, and him much it has evolved

Jon Wiggett

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2017, 02:11:10 AM »
It is great to know all this stuff and Pat's post was a real eyeopener but in the end knowing what has contributed to the problem is great and clearly it is good to understand it correctly but more important is knowing what the solution is which in its most simple form is shortening the golf ball for the tour pros.


Jon

Don Jordan

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #18 on: February 21, 2017, 03:34:16 AM »
Pat, I think you just did, no?


Haha yes, but I meant a number of players from young through old.
It's really interesting as a player and a coach what optimizing equipment can do, and him much it has evolved

I'm 41 and just had a chunk of long service leave which allowed me to play some of the best golf I have ever played. I picked up a club in length from practice and regular play and do most years over summer. The bit I find about equipment now is that you can have it all, with optimised spin rates you can hit it high and still get through the wind. I find that unless it is blowing 40mph like it was at Port Fairy when I played I can hit hard, high and not be bothered too much by wind. The current generation of drivers compared to my 3 year old technology that was fitted for me by a master club fitter picked up 20 metres carry and 15 metres in peak height and that is off the rack.

Trackman and fitness are the reason behind the jumps in the last few years IMO. Optimisation and increased professionalism are massive contributors. I back Shaks opinion, just watch the Masters each year - in 2005 Tiger hit Driver 9 iron to 15, Bubba did the same in his win in 2012 however the hole had been lengthened 50 yards in the interim. Something needs to change...

Ronald Montesano

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2017, 05:57:15 AM »
Why do we care?


Simply, think about it. Why do we care?


Are your religion, your politics, your daily wage, the health of your loved ones, impacted by a longer golf ball?


Are you in any way, connected to the discrepancy between how far this gal and how far that guy once hit it?


How many of you have been impacted personally by the decision of the very few Tour courses to lengthen?


If your club has chosen to lengthen, was it the decision of one or of many?
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Tim Gavrich

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #20 on: February 21, 2017, 06:12:47 AM »
I back Shaks opinion, just watch the Masters each year - in 2005 Tiger hit Driver 9 iron to 15, Bubba did the same in his win in 2012 however the hole had been lengthened 50 yards in the interim. Something needs to change...
Don--


Re: Bubba's short-iron approach in 2012, it's important to remember that he took kind of an insanely risky line off the tee that day, and it paid off. 90% or more of the field is hitting a long iron into that green, or laying up. Taking an extreme outlier as proof of the problem suggests the vast majority of data points may not be backing up the conclusion you're arguing for.


If a player is going to take on the crazy risk of that sort of shot and he pulls it off, why shouldn't he get a big reward? I've always thought that's part of what makes ANGC #13 such an incredible golf hole.


In every other major sport, fans marvel at the physical feats regularly performed by the best practitioners in the world of said sport. In golfers, those physical feats are seen as evidence of a flaw in the game. Could you imagine how silly it would look if basketball fans saw Stephen Curry make 10 three-pointers in a game and their reaction was to demand that the hoop be made smaller? Or if they saw LeBron James posterize some hapless defender and reacted by demanding the hoop be placed two feet higher?


Just as Shackelford theorizes that golf's governing bodies are conspiring to sell him and other golf minds a bill of goods by misusing data, he does the same thing with regard to the excerpt from Will Gray's article, which observes that there are more players who are averaging ~300 yards off the tee:


“A whopping 27 players cracked the 300-yard average last season on Tour, 15 more than the 2010 season and 18 more than in 2003. Individual drives over 300 yards, which made up just 26.56 percent of tee shots in 2003, accounted for 31.14 percent last season.”

Shackelford wants to lay this entirely at the dimples of the golf ball, but the reality is more complex. Golf course selections and setups, particularly at the lower-tour levels and, heck, all the way down to college and junior golf, tend to be friendlier to the bomb-and-gouge set than the straighter-hitting set. This stems from a sentiment that I think most of us share: greens are too soft. The softer greens get, the smaller the advantage hitting fairways carries, to the point where, tee to green, power becomes too important and accuracy and strategy cease to be important enough. That trend means that longer, less accurate golfers have more of a shot than they used to, and so it makes perfect sense that big hitters are showing up in greater numbers. If the powers-that-be have been pushed around by anyone, it's elite golfers who have been indulged too long by simplistic course setups, and therefore feel entitled to greens that hold a shot from 100 yards, even out of Tour rough.


It's also about site selection. Courses that require thoughtful shaping and placement of tee shots and approaches will put up more of a challenge to bombers, especially if their greens are tough to hit from off the fairway.


Harbour Town. Pebble Beach. TPC River Highlands. Year in and year out, these courses produce leaderboards featuring diverse groups of players, despite not fitting the lame "All courses need to be 8,000 yards for the pros now!!!" narrative.


In the end, the reality is much more complicated than merely "The ball goes too far." That means there are more, and better solutions than making the pro game less awe-inspiring by punishing pros for having skills that most golfers will never have.
Senior Writer, GolfPass

jeffwarne

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #21 on: February 21, 2017, 07:28:01 AM »
Nothing to see here.
Get a new driver every year-check
Buy a Trackman-check
Hire at least 2 experts at $200/hour to calibrate and optimize our use of both(swing and equipment)-check


and just in case that isn't quite enough-the ball and club manufacturers are spending big$$ and time to find further optimization and "loopholes" in the rules.(unless they were simply lying when they showed me and said exactly that to me a week ago)


Doing such is bit different than Curry knocking down unprecedented numbers of three pointers due to increased skill and practice.(not loopholes and technology)


The fact that you don't hit it any farther doesn't mean the game isn't being changed daily by technology-and your walk as a spectator and player made longer,slower and more expensive(though ironically as more people quit it gets cheaper as a less picky green fee payer).
"Let's slow the damned greens down a bit, not take the character out of them." Tom Doak
"Take their focus off the grass and put it squarely on interesting golf." Don Mahaffey

Jeff_Brauer

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #22 on: February 21, 2017, 07:57:44 AM »

But how would the USGA stop golfers and some entrepreneurs in studying spin, launch angles, etc., and charging golfers to help them max out those areas?  Or legislate fitness or muscle mass?


Seems like they finally limited distance gains owed to the ball in about 2003, and gains have slowed down, but golfers do love their distance, and where the market sees a need, someone rushes in to fill it, no?
Jeff Brauer, ASGCA Director of Outreach

JESII

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #23 on: February 21, 2017, 08:37:24 AM »
Jeff Warne - do you think the primary problem lies in courses adding length? Or in the reduced challenge today's game appears to presentvto the best players?

Brent Gremillion

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Re: Some data regarding why driving distance statistics have not increased
« Reply #24 on: February 21, 2017, 04:45:34 PM »
I've never believed that the real problem was the distance the ball travels. In my opinion the problem lies in the fact that the harder you hit the modern ball the less it spins. For years I've held the opinion that the restrictions placed on equipment should be "spin minimums" rather than "distance maximums".
Balls that don't spin off drivers and still spin off of greens with mid irons and wedges force course set-up into extremes and courses to get longer.
It will take a compelling argument to convince me that the distance problem some are trying to fix would not be resolved with a  ball that spins off the driver and all irons.