Bandon in a Tsunami

[Don Tappan]

I read an interesting article today on the massive earthquake zone in the Pacific Northwest. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one


It paints a pretty severe picture of what would happen in various parts of the area due to a seemingly looming earthquake and resultant tsunami. In situations like this, a golf course would be low on the re-building list but I was wondering what the impact would be on a place like Bandon given it is right on the ocean.


I know Mike Keiser sees Bandon as a place to exist for 500 years, but I wonder if this potential impact was thought through in construction. Would it be basically wiped away (course, lodging, clubhouses)? Or is it high enough on the land to not be affected?

[Jon Cavalier]

I thought about this a lot at Bandon this March. I think I even annoyed my group with several discussions of it.

In my opinion, Bandon likely survives. Those cliffs are 110 feet high on average, and the wave resulting from even the largest undersea earthquake maxes out at a height well below that (for example, the largest part of the 2004 Indian Ocean wave resulting from a 9.1 quake was about 50 feet - to go beyond that, you need either a bolide impact (think Deep Impact), a landslide (Lituya Bay, Alaska in 1958  was 1500 feet) or an volcanic explosion (Krakatoa). There would be some significant run up after impact with the cliff, and there would probably be a lot of erosion that would cause some of the land to slough off into the sea, but that's about it.

Some parts of The Preserve would probably be washed away, but Pacific Dunes, Old Mac and Bandon Dunes would be largely ok. Trails would be completely fine. The resort buildings, assuming they got through the earthquake, would also likely be fine.

Bandon actually isn't the worst place to be when the big one hits the cascadia. Nearby Coos Bay would be wiped off the map.

(Yes, the fact that I've though about this in detail is weird. I dig the science of earthquakes and tsunamis).

[Pete_Pittock]

Bandon golf courses will survive the tsunami and the earthquake that creates it , but the infrastructure in Oregon will suffer catastrophic damage. Expect roads washed away, bridges gone, tunnels collapsed in the 9. earthquake. Relief will be by air and sea. I don't think that golf courses and golfers will be high on the triage plan of recovery.

A good book reference is "Cascadia's Fault" by Jerry Thompson. I bought it a couple of years ago.

[Jon Cavalier]

There are four reasonably foreseeable natural disasters that have the potential to alter life as we know it in the United States. They are, from worst to least impactful:

1. Eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano (western half of the U.S. erased, nuclear winter for the rest of the world).

2. Collapse of La Palma / Cumbra Viejo in the Canary Islands (massive tsunami potentially hundreds of feet high wipes out the east coast from Maine to Florida).

3. Rupture of the New Madrid fault near St. Louis (last rupture was in 1811-12 - a similar rupture today would completely ruin the entire Midwest, as nearly all unreinforced structures collapse).

4. Cascadia earthquake and tsunami.

Any of the four would be, by far, the most devastating natural disaster in history from a damage standpoint.

Of the four, Cascadia is by far the most likely to happen in our lifetimes.

[BHoover]

I read this article today and also wondered, almost as an afterthought, how this would impact a place like Bandon. Jon makes a good point that the courses themselves could potentially survive a tsunami from a massive Cascadia earthquake. But the likelihood, with many thousands dead, infrastructure (including water and electricity) and a total collapse of the economy in the Pacific NE, is that this would spell the end for resort golf in the region.

The most startling part of the article was that we are well past due for such an event based on the average length of time between events in the past. That was a stark reminder that it's a matter of when, not if, this happens. I think the odds were something like 1 in 3 over the next 50 years, if I remember correctly.

[Craig Sweet]

Who knows?  If you read the article it sounds as if the land drops or sinks from the earthquake. So, Bandon might very well be 50-100 feet lower following a quake and the resulting tsunami could come quite aways inland.

[Tom_Doak]

I can tell you we thought about it.  I remember Mr. Keiser asking me one day, as we were standing on the 4th hole of Pacific Dunes, if I thought it was worth it to purchase tsunami insurance.  [I have no idea what it costs, or what it would cover.]


My response was that if a tsunami big enough to affect the golf course would happen, that the insurer would go underwater, too, and the golf courses were probably the last thing they'd pay out on.  But as long as there was sand up there, we could build a new golf course.

[Wayne_Kozun]

The most startling part of the article was that we are well past due for such an event based on the average length of time between events in the past. That was a stark reminder that it's a matter of when, not if, this happens. I think the odds were something like 1 in 3 over the next 50 years, if I remember correctly.

The scientists have estimated that there were 41 large quakes over 10,000 years which is an average of one every 243 years.  But the story didn't provide any detail on the variance or standard deviation between these quakes.

The last big one was in 1700 so that means that we are currently 70 years beyond the mean.

[BHoover]

I can tell you we thought about it.  I remember Mr. Keiser asking me one day, as we were standing on the 4th hole of Pacific Dunes, if I thought it was worth it to purchase tsunami insurance.  [I have no idea what it costs, or what it would cover.]


My response was that if a tsunami big enough to affect the golf course would happen, that the insurer would go underwater, too, and the golf courses were probably the last thing they'd pay out on.  But as long as there was sand up there, we could build a new golf course.

Very interesting, Tom. Out of curiosity, did any of the planning for your courses at Bandon involve studying potential inundation areas?

You are also probably right that the course could be rebuilt following a tsunami. But that might be the least of anyone's concerns, based on the potential impact highlighted in the article.

[Pete_Pittock]

The article implied that the drop would be about 6 feet, since that is the amount of tension uplift.

[Mike Bowen]

If the cliffs were to erode non-uniform way the 4th at PD could become a nice cape hole. 

[Ryan Coles]

Gotta love golfers. A description of complete devastation, the end of civilisation for millions and our thoughts are 'hey Bill, will Bandon be ok?' 'This will do wonders for our tree removal programme'.

[Stephen Davis]

My very good friend did his Master's work at Oregon State on this exact subject. He is now employed by the state and is doing an analysis on every bridge in Oregon. It is something that they are very aware of and are definitely concerned about.

[Tom_Doak]

Out of curiosity, did any of the planning for your courses at Bandon involve studying potential inundation areas?

The subject didn't come up until we were almost finished with Pacific Dunes; and I didn't bring it up again when we started Old Macdonald.  As you say, the state of the golf course would be the least of concerns for people in the Pacific Northwest should the big tsunami ever occur.  Having just read the article, it sounds like it would be years before the roads would be repaired well enough to reopen the place.  I guess it's a good thing Mr. Keiser is diversifying.

[Paul Stockert]

For anyone interested in more, after the article there was an ama (ask me anything) on Reddit with some earthquake scientists. Pretty interesting and link is below.  They mention Bandon the town which sounds like it would be pretty bad off.  They also mention the tsunami indundation maps available online.  Also linked below.  Bandon Dunes is I believe shown in the Bullard Beach map of which I only looked at the preview. But even with the small preview pic it appears that the golf courses mostly survive.  As someone pointed out, that survival would be centered in unreal carnage...but while the cleanup is happening maybe people can take a break to go get a round in to clear their minds.   Gotta think hosting tourists will be the least of their worries tho.  - PJ

https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about

http://www.oregongeology.org/pubs/tim/p-TIM-Coos-12.htm

[BCrosby]

You have to think that the devastation to Coos Bay and the town of Bandon would be beyond description. Which would pretty much cut-off access to Bandon Dunes. My guess is that BD too would take huge hits, elevation notwithstanding.


Bob

[William_G]

The New Yorker article is outstanding!

Anyone who lives on the west coast, "knows" about earthquakes, eg. David Tepper,, as well as the beauty of the Ring of Fire, the Pacific Rim.

Anyday, the big one could happen and the science and research of predictability and severity are ongoing, and will continue forever, eg. Stephen Davis's friend.

Will history repeat itself??

Nature is a force that will dominate whatever humans throw at it and we will adapt.

Yet, despite the force of nature, human made problems dominate our daily lives!

[Mark Bourgeois]

Yet, despite the force of nature, human made problems dominate our daily lives!

Earthquakes don't kill people, buildings do.

[Ben Sims]

There are existing plans for aerial insertion (airdrop) of food, water, and equipment to geographically separated areas. This is forecast to continue for weeks following the event.


It's pretty simple to see the issues that could be created based on the number of bridges alone in the Pac NW. Another issue being partially ignored in the case of a quake is the potential for massive mudflows off the large volcanoes.


In short, living in the northwest...Positives: everything. Negatives: largest quake in US history fundamentally altering geography and human life in the region.

[Peter Pallotta]

Call me superstitous, but I find myself hoping that there are 10 righteous people around, for the sake of whom the PNW will be spared these predicated calamities. The good news is that, while I don't qualify personally, I'm pretty sure I've met a least 5 really special people over the years, so maybe the odds are good that there are 5 more here and there. We've somehow got to get George Pazin out there to Bandon, and Joe Hancock too. David Tepper is close by, so that's good, and maybe Benjamin Litman and Shelly Solow can head out together.
 
Peter

[Sven Nilsen]

With the legalization of weed out here, I don't think anyone would notice.

[Mark Bourgeois]

Call me superstitous, but I find myself hoping that there are 10 righteous people around, for the sake of whom the PNW will be spared these predicated calamities. The good news is that, while I don't qualify personally, I'm pretty sure I've met a least 5 really special people over the years, so maybe the odds are good that there are 5 more here and there. We've somehow got to get George Pazin out there to Bandon, and Joe Hancock too. David Tepper is close by, so that's good, and maybe Benjamin Litman and Shelly Solow can head out together.
 
Peter

Congrats on getting it down to 10. We should have had you on the Iran nuke negotiating team!

[Peter Pallotta]

I can't take the credit, Mark. That was Abraham's doing, quite a long time ago (6,000 years ago, I think). He must've had a lot of guts, but by pushing his luck he got it all the way down from 50 to 10! I'm counting on the reports being historical and not merely symbolic or allegorical.
 
Peter

[Mark Bourgeois]

Let's assume historical -- pending further information, please hold any plans to hack your first born into pieces.

[William_G]

Yet, despite the force of nature, human made problems dominate our daily lives!

Earthquakes don't kill people, buildings do.

+1 LOL