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RKoehn

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Winning Score Predictions
« on: June 17, 2015, 09:57:26 AM »
Interested to hear people's thoughts.


I'll start with my highly contrarian prediction of -11. 


I think they water the heck out of the greens, put the pins in easy basin spots and push the tees up, which Davis has shown he is willing to do.  With wide, fast fairways, the course will play much easier than the pundits predict.  The USGA doesn't like criticism.
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Tommy Williamsen

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2015, 10:31:35 AM »
I have been wondering about winning score as well. I think it is impossible to determine because we don't know how Mike Davis will set up the course. That said, I think the best scoring will come Thirsday and Friday because they need to get 156 players around the course before dark. I would not be surprised that by Friday afternoon a number of players are under par, but I think if someone is even par for the weekend he will be in the hunt. -5?
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Jon Wiggett

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2015, 11:44:26 AM »
A nailed on -1 ;D
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Greg Taylor

Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2015, 11:46:11 AM »
3 over... too firm and fast...!
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BHoover

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2015, 11:49:41 AM »
I'll go with -2. I think they'll be some good scores Thursday and Friday, but the USGA cuts off the water and ramps up the hole locations over the weekend.
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Jason Topp

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2015, 11:51:49 AM »
Quote from: Brian Hoover on June 17, 2015, 11:49:41 AM
I'll go with -2. I think they'll be some good scores Thursday and Friday, but the USGA cuts off the water and ramps up the hole locations over the weekend.

I will go with -3 so Hoover is surrounded.  I am thinking the USGA will be a bit conservative with setup to avoid too many complaints and that the winning number could be lower.
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BHoover

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2015, 11:54:44 AM »
Quote from: Jason Topp on June 17, 2015, 11:51:49 AM
Quote from: Brian Hoover on June 17, 2015, 11:49:41 AM
I'll go with -2. I think they'll be some good scores Thursday and Friday, but the USGA cuts off the water and ramps up the hole locations over the weekend.

I will go with -3 so Hoover is surrounded.  I am thinking the USGA will be a bit conservative with setup to avoid too many complaints and that the winning number could be lower.

You watched a lot of The Price is Right, I see? That's a pro move.
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PCCraig

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2015, 11:56:52 AM »
I'll take -15.
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H.P.S.

Andrew Buck

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #8 on: June 17, 2015, 11:58:18 AM »
Quote from: PCraig on June 17, 2015, 11:56:52 AM
I'll take -15.

Put me down for -13, with record numbers under par

and that's a good thing.
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Donovan Childers

Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2015, 01:45:19 PM »
I have heard everything from 6 under to 8 over. I don't mind watching pro's struggle, but I will give them some credit 1 under.
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Benjamin Litman

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2015, 02:16:23 PM »
No idea as to the score, but I have an idea as to the winner. Since Mike Davis began setting up courses for the U.S. Open, every single winner has been a "name" player, with the possible exceptions of Lucas Glover, Geoff Ogilvy, and Webb Simpson. More impressive is the list of runners-up, which, with only two exceptions (Mediate and Havret), have been definite future Hall of Famers or at least borderline Hall of Famers. In short, you can expect at least two big-name players in the top three at the end of the week.


2006 Winged Foot: Geoff Ogilvy (Furyk, Mickelson, Montgomery)
2007 Oakmont: Angel Cabrera (Woods, Furyk)
2008 Torrey Pines: Tiger Woods (Mediate)
2009 Bethpage Black: Lucas Glover (Mickelson, Duval, Barnes)
2010 Pebble Beach: Graeme McDowell (Havret, with Els 3rd and Mickelson and Woods T4)
2011 Congressional: Rory McIlroy (Day)
2012 Olympic: Webb Simpson (McDowell, Thompson)
2013 Merion: Justin Rose (Day, Mickelson)
2014 Pinehurst: Martin Kaymer (Fowler, Compton)
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Carl Nichols

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Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #11 on: June 17, 2015, 02:52:13 PM »
-6
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Craig Sweet

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Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2015, 02:58:44 PM »
+3....to +5
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Gary Sato

Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #13 on: June 17, 2015, 03:18:39 PM »
-3 and is won by an international player.
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Anthony Butler

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #14 on: June 17, 2015, 03:24:19 PM »
Quote from: Gary Sato on June 17, 2015, 03:18:39 PM
-3 and is won by an international player.
+1 on your -3 with International winner.

I'd be willing to say it may go to -5 depending if Mike Davis feels a little " ..easy like Sunday Morning"

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Next!

Alex Miller

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #15 on: June 17, 2015, 03:24:44 PM »
-5
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Jud_T

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #16 on: June 17, 2015, 04:02:44 PM »
I could care less about the score.  All I know is I have Bubba at 35-1 and Kuchar at 40-1 to win.  Also Noren at 18-1 to make the top 5, not to mention several of those million dollar slates at Draft Kings.  With a bit of luck and some f&f golf I may be able to actually stay awake for the entire thing.
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Carl Rogers

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #17 on: June 17, 2015, 04:37:27 PM »
A function of the Par 3 set-ups..... if they are reasonably playable then -8, if easy then -12,  if very hard then -2.
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cary lichtenstein

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #18 on: June 17, 2015, 05:59:16 PM »
+3
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Adrian_Stiff

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #19 on: June 17, 2015, 06:24:21 PM »
-10 I think the USGA would be likely to defend it if it looks like going weak and if it is tough they will set it up easier.
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Richard Choi

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Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #20 on: June 17, 2015, 06:34:11 PM »
I might as well get this over with...


I believe the score will be something similar to what you saw last year, as I expect it is going to play very similar. If somebody gets really hot, you can go 8 or even 10 under. I suspect someone (probably morning on Thu and afternoon on Fri, based on current weather reports) will go low early (like 66 then 68) and will hang on for dear life through the weekend. Around 5 under is probably the safest bet.


As to who is going to win it, I have always maintained that it has to be a high/long hitter with creativity around the green. An extensive experience playing links golf (or fescue) is a major plus.


This is a second shot golf course and how well you control your long irons will be key to winning here.


There are a few guys who fit this description the best.


Justin Rose grew up playing overseas and is a very good long iron player. I like him a lot.


Bubba is an obvious choice and I believe he will do very well at Chambers. If his putter gets hot, he will win.


Rory, if the greens are receptive like they are right now, will win this for sure. But I am guessing it will get firmer by weekend.


Spieth, I am afraid, does not have the length to win this event. The firmer this course plays, it will be better for him.


You have to give some consideration to Sergio. Nobody hits his long irons better. He just needs to control his lag putts.


Tiger? I have no idea. This course will not force him to play driver or require exact control. If he can hit is long irons well, he will be in it come Sunday.


But I like Phil's chances. He had a very good week last week and I believe he knows this course well enough to win. It will certainly make a great story. I will be rooting for him.


If you want dark horses, I like Koepka and Ahn. Both played here for US Am and know how firm and fast this course can play under tournament condition. They can make some noise.
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Jonathan Mallard

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #21 on: June 17, 2015, 08:09:57 PM »
To thread jack...


Is 18 a 4 or 5 on Sunday?


Do they want an exciting finish, or a more difficult 'par' to 'earn' the title?
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RKoehn

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #22 on: June 18, 2015, 07:27:47 AM »
Mike Davis says "a few better than par" but I am also guessing he wouldn't have predicted -9 at Pinehurst or -16 at Congressional.


Interesting that Richard Choi below says the greens are "receptive" - if that is the case then maybe those of predicting double digits will end up looking pretty good.


http://www.foxsports.com/golf/usga/story/u-s-open-fox-sports-usga-chambers-bay-061815
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Terry Lavin

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #23 on: June 18, 2015, 12:46:46 PM »
4 under par
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David Ober

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Winning Score Predictions
« Reply #24 on: June 18, 2015, 01:34:19 PM »
-10
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