[Randy Thompson]

Reading the thread about golf fashion got me to thnking. During the period from 1975 to 2005 when gof development was living the good life with 350 golf openings per year, what percentage of these courses targeted affordble and accessible golf? It seems to me, the big fish are at the top of the lake and most of these courses were targeted to catch the big fish and today even though the US has dropped to somewhere around 15 new opening per year, all seem to be still targeted towards the big fish. There are alot more fish deeper in the lake but smaller in size for sure and nobody seems to care or wants their name to be assocated with these smaller projects. The majority of us were introduced to golf via muncipal or a basic mom and pop golf operations, all acessible and affordable! Have the Joe Lee´s of golf course architecture disappeared? He seemed to fish much deeper in the lake or at least somewhere other then the top! If most of us established our passion for golf playing less then perfect design and playing on surfaces something less then perfect. Are we paying the price and suffering the consequence because it harder and harder to find these affordable courses and therefore were not developing new golfers as in the past Is this a good example of, you harvest what you seed and were not seeding as we should be? I understand there are a lot fo factors associated with golf decline but it seems to me this also a valid factor.

[Jeff Bergeron]

It's the land value. 150+acre  parcels of land have so much value in most urban areas that a golf course is rarely the highest and best use. Even if it was, using conventional wisdom you need to spend big $$$ to justify using the land for a golf course.
That being said I live in Detroit. Wouldn't it be great if we could string together some parcels of abandoned land, grade it, plant fescue and native and give the kids some clubs and say 'have at it'.
Back to the future.

[Patrick_Mucci]

It's the ECONOMY and........... the ECONOMY and............ the ECONOMY

[Tom_Doak]

Randy:

In a market economy [which was not the golf business we grew up in], the most affordable courses are the ones that are about to go bankrupt, or be sold off for housing.

Which, hopefully, does not include any of the new courses we are building.

[Randy Thompson]

Tom,
Agreed, failed projects where somebody made mistakes or soemthing went wrong and there aree hundred ways to do that, but most were top watering fishing to begin with. How many projects have there been that start out targeting a low or middle income or young player?. What percent of total Americans play golf. Whatever that number is, divide by five or ten and you will come close to what percent play in S.A. Now, what percent of the population plays in Scottland. I remember you commenting in a post about while in Sciottland or England, over hearing a couple of college girls or late high school schools talking about what they were going to for the afternoon and they decided to go play golf and it kinda of flabergasted you! That tells me, they have done something right and the rest of the world could and should try to learn from it. I think it had a lot to with the enviromental factors, rain fall, gradual movement of the land, soil compisition, made it posible to maintain a course inexpensively, thus low greens fees could be established and the investor or owner could still make a profit. Also expectations were never so high, where player freak out when seeing some dandilions!

Pat,
What economy? The US numbers of new course openings have hindered around as low as in depression years. Do you think the economy is similar to that now? In my life time I have never heard anybody speak about that we are currently in a pretty good economy, its laways been bad but when I return to the US, I see a strong economy. Go spend some time in Argentina or Venezuela for a couple of months but don´t bring any dollars with you, just your credit card and experience what is a bad economy! The US has one of the biggest middle classes in the world and there are golfers in that market but we have not invested enough in cultivating that market! The IRR were just to attractive if one fished top wáter. But that market is currently saturated or approaching saturation IMO!

[BCowan]

Randy,

Many US towns/cities have had jr golf programs for the longest time.  Many courses in the US are affordable For kids.  One by the house I grew up with is like $9 to play.  Many courses I see in the Midwest are being bought up and fixed up incrementally.  Which I find wonderful.  there is no need for lots of courses built. 

Ur comments about our economy are off the mark.  Plus ur comparing us to a communist country and another one that prints fiat money like a press, only problem is they aren't the world reserve currency exporting their debt like us.  our  middle class is Debt.

Ps-  In a market economy, a market would set interest rates.  We have a controlled market.

[Jon Wiggett]

I wonder if the golf industry really is in crisis. Even in boom times courses still closed for various reasons. The difference in the last few years is that less are being built most of which I suspect you can put down to the lack of new house building with associated golf course.

Randy,

here in the UK things have been a little tight in recent years but most courses have just put their heads down and got on with it. It seems to me that in the US a few started prophesising doom and everyone there went hysterical, the end of the world is nigh.

Jon

[Josh Stevens]

I fear affordability is also perhaps at times related to the model that the top end clubs in the US tends to follow - that is, having very few members.

There seems to be this desire to be a member of a club with no more than 300 members where one can wander out and play at any time in splendid isolation.  This is in contrast to the UK model of being busy, bustling and sociable.  This is their choice of course but it comes at a cost.

Royal Melbourne has perhaps 3000 members while Cypress Point has 300 (ok its only 18 holes). So you are effectively adding a zero to the end of the fees.  Imagine what golf in the US would be like if these top end clubs had 3-5 times as many members as they currently do.

[Mark_F]

Royal Melbourne has perhaps 3000 members while Cypress Point has 300 (ok its only 18 holes). So you are effectively adding a zero to the end of the fees.  Imagine what golf in the US would be like if these top end clubs had 3-5 times as many members as they currently do.

It is the Sandbelt model that has problems, not the USA.

Maybe as many as half of the Sandbelt members play less than 7 or 8 times a year.  That makes the model susceptible to people leaving because spending $4000 a year for that few games isn't justifiable.

[Mike_Young]

Randy,
I think there is a market for the type you describe but they have to be in the right location.  One of the problems I see is in the "conversion".  So many of the clubs built as top end clubs cannot convert to the average "small town" club easily because the "built in" maintenance cost of so many of them here in the US.  Clubs built for that purpose seem to be fine if located in the right place.  Don't you think so?

[Brent Hutto]

I think there's a more general path dependency problem than the one Mike just mentioned. Yes, it's hard to repurpose a high-$$$ facility with heavy maintenance, land and staff costs into a bare-bones operation. But it's also hard to build a low-end, efficient operation in an area that already has half a dozen failing or near-failing courses trying to eke out an existence at that same low-$$$ end of the market (come to think of it Mike mentioned that earlier, too).

Overseas there may be plenty of areas which are NOT 3x overbuilt with failed real estate development courses and where land can be acquired cheaply enough to make chasing $20 green fees a valid business plan. But most places I know of in USA there's not really a clear path that leads from the status quo where the low end of the market consists of a bunch of mediocre, real-estate courses that were built 20, 30, 40 years ago and have been through three or four bankruptcies.

No way you can buy a million dollar plus piece of land and build even the most minimal, efficient, bare-bones new golf course and compete with those guys just trying to grab a few bucks and stave off their closing and conversion into strip malls for one more year.

[Ian Mackenzie]

Great topic.
Speaking solely from a US perspective, I see this as yet another concrete example - and metaphor -  of the growing bifurcation of the economy, culture and social hierarchy of modern day America.

The hotly debated "wealth gap" that is on the tip of the tongues of myriad POTUS candidates is, in fact, very real. Wages of middle class Americans have stagnated while cost of living has increased. It is very logical that luxury discretionary spending - like golf equipment and tee times - has been reduced in favor of life's essentials.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, all is well. In fact, it's VERY good. So, high end courses may continue to open as their client base is the top 1 to 0.5%. Sure, many private clubs are still struggling as they took on debt to finance costly projects.

But as the original thread points out, the "big fish" have cash and are willing to shell out more of it. Golf isnt the only area where this is the case. The stratification of society continues and golf is the least of the problems.

"Ain't that America...."

[Mike_Young]

Good greens and cold beer are the main ingredients in surviving $25 golf...all else is luxury....if one has to spend dollars on the rest of the place then it doesn't work....

[Jud_T]

Anything that takes 160 acres of property near a major metropolitan area ain't going to be cheap.  Perhaps those that think sub 6500 yard courses and 9-holers, not to mention greens running below 11 and perfectly manicured green grass, isn't "real" golf should take a long hard look in the mirror.

[Brent Hutto]

Good greens and cold beer are the main ingredients in surviving $25 golf...all else is luxury....if one has to spend dollars on the rest of the place then it doesn't work....

Succinctly put.

And I suspect as long as there a couple of $25 courses with good greens and cold beer in an area, you've got to move up to a much higher price point if you want to build another course.

[Mike_Young]

Good greens and cold beer are the main ingredients in surviving $25 golf...all else is luxury....if one has to spend dollars on the rest of the place then it doesn't work....

Succinctly put.

And I suspect as long as there a couple of $25 courses with good greens and cold beer in an area, you've got to move up to a much higher price point if you want to build another course.

yep...

[Mike_Young]

Brent,
Try this formula:  at 40,000 rounds you could spend $1 mill for each $10 you could charge for green fee.  At 20,000 rounds it would be $20 for every mill.....problem is a lot of people were told they would have 40,000 rounds and it never happened...

[Andrew Buck]

Ur comments about our economy are off the mark.  Plus ur comparing us to a communist country and another one that prints fiat money like a press, only problem is they aren't the world reserve currency exporting their debt like us.  our  middle class is Debt.

Ps-  In a market economy, a market would set interest rates.  We have a controlled market.

Regardless of economic debate, I refuse to believe the MAIN driver of golf's downturn in the US are related to macroeconomic changes over the past 15 years.  I'm sure that the changes on tax deductions have impacted private clubs greatly, but I'm not so sure it's impacted total rounds much.

I know dozens of guys in there late 30's and early 40's who LOVE golf, and have the means to join clubs or play regularly.  Yet, I can think of only a couple of us that belong to clubs, or play regularly.  Many of the guys I'm thinking of, grew up in a household where their father played every Tuesday, Saturday and Sunday, and had drinks after at the club, despite having a young family.  My dad and all his friends did this as well.  Societal changes in family dynamics and kids activities have quite simply changed drastically *AND* families have started later, prolonging the age where family time commitments start to decrease. 

Sure, the economy has had a negative impact on many people, but there are still no shortage of people buying luxury cars, attendance at sports events with astronomical prices and other entertainment activities are fetching top dollar (even if people are borrowing to do so).  Unless society drastically changes again, or junior golf hooks enough players for families to take on the pursuit together at a greater clip, I have a hard time seeing a drastic change. 

That doesn't mean there won't be plenty of golfers, just that courses will continue to hurt until enough close to right size with demand.   

[Andrew Buck]

Great topic.
Speaking solely from a US perspective, I see this as yet another concrete example - and metaphor -  of the growing bifurcation of the economy, culture and social hierarchy of modern day America.

The hotly debated "wealth gap" that is on the tip of the tongues of myriad POTUS candidates is, in fact, very real. Wages of middle class Americans have stagnated while cost of living has increased. It is very logical that luxury discretionary spending - like golf equipment and tee times - has been reduced in favor of life's essentials.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, all is well. In fact, it's VERY good. So, high end courses may continue to open as their client base is the top 1 to 0.5%. Sure, many private clubs are still struggling as they took on debt to finance costly projects.

But as the original thread points out, the "big fish" have cash and are willing to shell out more of it. Golf isnt the only area where this is the case. The stratification of society continues and golf is the least of the problems.

"Ain't that America...."

Maybe it's my upbringing, but I'm having a hard time believing the game of golf is more bifurcated today than it was in the 80's and early 90's.  If it is, it seems that the number of options have improved for the middle or lower middle class (of which I firmly grew up) since that time.

That's not to make light of a true growing wealth gap or dozens of other issues, just pointing out that Golf's history, unlike other areas, probably isn't being effected by this as strongly as suggested here, as the game has always skewed heavily toward those with greater incomes, because there has never been a time with as many affordable options as have existed in the last 15 years.

[jeffwarne]

I've heard enough about the economy. Sure clubs that overspend got burned but there is affordable golf out there for those who want to join a club.
The middle class has $300 cell phone and $300 + cable bills but somehow can't find the money for a modest golf membership.
Here in the Hamptons I know of two courses withing 5 miles of my home I can join ANNUALLY for less than my MONTHLY cell and cable bill combined.
It's all about priorities.

[Carl Rogers]

Maybe another equation is in order....
- 15 minutes between tee times (only so many golfers on the course) equals revenue
- then a real hard super critical look at the experience - design - maintenace practice - cost side
- charge the golfers what it takes to comeout in the black 15% over and above the cost ... then see if you have a viable operation

the Mercedes-Benz motto, "the best or nothing", is modified to "the best within possible cost reality"

My own prejudice is that the ultimate golf luxury is not waiting on every shot ... I probably would not appreciate Pebble Beach (from what I hear)

[Tommy Williamsen]

Ur comments about our economy are off the mark.  Plus ur comparing us to a communist country and another one that prints fiat money like a press, only problem is they aren't the world reserve currency exporting their debt like us.  our  middle class is Debt.

Ps-  In a market economy, a market would set interest rates.  We have a controlled market.

Regardless of economic debate, I refuse to believe the MAIN driver of golf's downturn in the US are related to macroeconomic changes over the past 15 years.  I'm sure that the changes on tax deductions have impacted private clubs greatly, but I'm not so sure it's impacted total rounds much.

I know dozens of guys in there late 30's and early 40's who LOVE golf, and have the means to join clubs or play regularly.  Yet, I can think of only a couple of us that belong to clubs, or play regularly.  Many of the guys I'm thinking of, grew up in a household where their father played every Tuesday, Saturday and Sunday, and had drinks after at the club, despite having a young family.  My dad and all his friends did this as well.  Societal changes in family dynamics and kids activities have quite simply changed drastically *AND* families have started later, prolonging the age where family time commitments start to decrease. 

Sure, the economy has had a negative impact on many people, but there are still no shortage of people buying luxury cars, attendance at sports events with astronomical prices and other entertainment activities are fetching top dollar (even if people are borrowing to do so).  Unless society drastically changes again, or junior golf hooks enough players for families to take on the pursuit together at a greater clip, I have a hard time seeing a drastic change. 

That doesn't mean there won't be plenty of golfers, just that courses will continue to hurt until enough close to right size with demand.   

Andrew, I agree that younger Dads just don't play as often as their parents did.  I am 68 with a 39 year old son.  I played at least three times a week.  Often I would take my son with me for a quick nine after work and before night meetings. When he was at home we belonged to three different private clubs. Vacations always included golf at some point.  My son is a single digit player who no longer belongs to a club and plays once or twice a month.  I felt as though is was there for my son.  I helped coach little league and attended most events in which he parciptated.   My wife also plays and we would make golf a family event. My son's wife does not play but does encourage him to play, yet he doesn't play that much.  He doesn't ski that much either, even though he moved to Denver to be closer to skiing, which might be his first love.  He just doesn't play anything as much as I do.  My guess is that he has decided to spend his free time differently than I do.  I don't think he is alone in that either.  I hear the same thing from most of my friends.

[Andrew Buck]

I've heard enough about the economy. Sure clubs that overspend got burned but there is affordable golf out there for those who want to join a club.
The middle class has $300 cell phone and $300 + cable bills but somehow can't find the money for a modest golf membership.
Here in the Hamptons I know of two courses withing 5 miles of my home I can join ANNUALLY for less than my MONTHLY cell and cable bill combined.
It's all about priorities.

Agree Jeff, this is the heart of my thoughts on the matter.

The economy may have inherent weaknesses that will be exposed over the next several decades.  There may be a healthy debate about the current and future consequences of the expanding "wealth gap".  It's very likely we all know individuals who's livelihoods have been negatively impacted by changes in macroeconomic principals in this country.

That said, there are very many affordable golf options, many with decent quality, and there are many areas of the current economy where record amounts of "disposable" income are being spent.  The population does not prioritize golf as much today as it did at some utopic time in the past.  Some of those reasons can be addressed by "the game" collectively, and some simply can't.

[Carl Rogers]

Look at the Sacred Nine thread.  What is the cost structure of that track? .... tiny it would seem to me.

[cary lichtenstein]

It's a very complex and complicated problem. I sell houses in different gated golf communities and everyone has an initation fee in excess of $100,000 to $200,000 and the inventory is scarce, about a 5 months supply of homes. We could use another golf course development here. The 45-65 age group is looking for gated communities with amenities, not neighborhoods BUT there is no land to develop.

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