Scotland independence and golf

[Carl Johnson]

Carl,

The Scottish flag is called the Saltire or Saint Andrews Cross. Do you belong to a McConnell golf property?

The English have the red and white Saint George's Cross in addition to the Union Jack.

I love this picture I took this August from a fishing village near downtown Edinburgh , New Haven, where the Saltire is ripping with the wind!! In the background across the Fourth River is Fife!

DSCN0373 by macmalc21, on Flickr

Malcolm, yes it was the Saint Andrews Cross flag.  No, we are a private member-owned club, not a McConnell property.  A couple of guys "accused" me of running the Saltire up, because I have a history with our club's flag poles, but in fact it was not I this time.  I know not who the prankster was.

[Rich Goodale]

I would take the concerns noted in the link below very seriously. In short, if what is happening with the Euro worries you, what will happen to an independent Scotland should worry you even more.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/09/10/even-more-on-scotland/?_php=true&_type=blogs&module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body&_r=0

Bob

Bob

The EU (and even Greece) are doing quite nicely now.  I wouldn't put any great faith in Krugman these days, since he's been gently shown the door at Princeton.  You can look it up....

Rich

[Rich Goodale]

Rich,

are you still pushing Eire as an example for Scotland? Just like earlier in the thread when it did what you are claiming is simply not true. Eire had the Punt which it backed with its own lender of last resort. I like Mark am curious as to why yu have not got the vote having lived here so long.

Jon

Jon

Eire was without a lender of last resort (except England) until 20+ years after independence.  Look it up.

Rich

[Jon Wiggett]

Rich,

are you still pushing Eire as an example for Scotland? Just like earlier in the thread when it did what you are claiming is simply not true. Eire had the Punt which it backed with its own lender of last resort. I like Mark am curious as to why yu have not got the vote having lived here so long.

Jon

Jon

Eire was without a lender of last resort (except England) until 20+ years after independence.  Look it up.

Rich

Yes Rich this is true and I do not dispute it is possible to do this but you have pushed it as a good example to follow. If this were so then why did they change?

It is all good and well to produce examples to prove a narrow point and try to sell them as a rounded view point but it also important to be able to show that such examples stand up to examination. Your examples unfortunately do not. Ignore answering questions where you know full well the answer will undermine your claims does not legitimise them but rather shows even you know them to be folly.

As I have said before it is also interesting to note the questions you do not answer and what this says.

Jon

[Mark Chaplin]

Rich I trust "Greece doing quite well" isn't a model for Scottish success?

Greece;

GDP growth -0.3%
Inflation -0.3%
Population below poverty line 36.4%
Unemployment 27%

The UK;

GDP growth 0.8%
Inflation 1.6%
Population below poverty line 5.6%
Unemployment 6.4%

[Frank Pont]

Rich I trust "Greece doing quite well" isn't a model for Scottish success?

Greece;

GDP growth -0.3%
Inflation -0.3%
Population below poverty line 36.4%
Unemployment 27%

The UK;

GDP growth 0.8%
Inflation 1.6%
Population below poverty line 5.6%
Unemployment 6.4%

I recently heard that the UK without London is at par with parts of the Czech Republic. That would gel with what I see driving around the UK.

[Rich Goodale]

Rich I trust "Greece doing quite well" isn't a model for Scottish success?

Greece;

GDP growth -0.3%
Inflation -0.3%
Population below poverty line 36.4%
Unemployment 27%

The UK;

GDP growth 0.8%
Inflation 1.6%
Population below poverty line 5.6%
Unemployment 6.4%

What's the time frame, Mark?  Without context, numbers are irrelevant.

[Rich Goodale]

Rich,

are you still pushing Eire as an example for Scotland? Just like earlier in the thread when it did what you are claiming is simply not true. Eire had the Punt which it backed with its own lender of last resort. I like Mark am curious as to why yu have not got the vote having lived here so long.

Jon

Jon

Eire was without a lender of last resort (except England) until 20+ years after independence.  Look it up.

Rich

Yes Rich this is true and I do not dispute it is possible to do this but you have pushed it as a good example to follow. If this were so then why did they change?

It is all good and well to produce examples to prove a narrow point and try to sell them as a rounded view point but it also important to be able to show that such examples stand up to examination. Your examples unfortunately do not. Ignore answering questions where you know full well the answer will undermine your claims does not legitimise them but rather shows even you know them to be folly.

As I have said before it is also interesting to note the questions you do not answer and what this says.

Jon

Jon

I am only pointing out that there is a Home Countries example of living within a shared currency.

Please remind me of any questions I have not answered to your satisfaction.

Slainte

Rich

[BCrosby]

Rich -

The EU is doing quite badly. Essentially no growth over last five years after the crash with an ever increasing threat of deflation. Even Germany has slowed to a crawl. A performance worse than Europe coming out of the Great Depression in the 1930's. This depression wasn't as deep, but the recovery has been much slower.

The problem EU faces is their use of a common currency whose value is not determined by a common fiscal policy. The EU experience says that doesn't work. But that is exactly what Scotland wants to replicate by staying on the pound.

You been reading too much National Review these days re Princeton? As to the actual merits of his commentary, Krugman has been remarkably prescient about the Great Recession. Test: if you took bond and/or currency positions against him over the last several years, you lost a bundle. Given his priors, I see no reason to think he (and many others) are wrong about Scotland.

Bob

[Rich Goodale]

Rich -

The EU is doing quite badly. Essentially no growth over last five years after the crash with an ever increasing threat of deflation. Even Germany has slowed to a crawl. A performance worse than Europe coming out of the Great Depression in the 1930's. This depression wasn't as deep, but the recovery has been much slower.

The problem EU faces is their use of a common currency whose value is not determined by a common fiscal policy. The EU experience says that doesn't work. But that is exactly what Scotland wants to replicate by staying on the pound.

You been reading too much National Review these days re Princeton? As to the actual merits of his commentary, Krugman has been remarkably prescient about the Great Recession. Test: if you took bond and/or currency positions against him over the last several years, you lost a bundle. Giveanbd don't assumken his priors, I see no reason to think he (and many others) are wrong about Scotland.

Bob

Bob

I rarely read the National Review, but I do more occasionally read the Guardian along with other publications of note.  Check this out, and don't be so foolish as to assume that the main stream media in the USA have a clue as what is really happening over her in the real world.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/03/greece-tourism-template-economic-recovery

Alll the best

Rich

PS--as to Kriugman/Princeton my source is Ferguson/Harvard.  You choose as which one to believe.

PPS--speculating in bonds and/or currencies at our age?  You must be kidding?

[BCrosby]

More from Krugman:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/09/12/maastricht-in-a-kilt/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body

Look, you might not like Krugman because he is a liberal. That's fine. But this is not a matter of the usual left/right political thing.

Scotland's independence folks are trying to chart a path that flies in the face of Econ 101. This experiment has been tried. It doesn't work for well-understood reasons. With all we now know about such things, it's nuts to try to run the experiment one more time.

Bob

[David_Tepper]

"PS--as to Kriugman/Princeton my source is Ferguson/Harvard.  You choose as which one to believe."

Rich -

Given that Krugman has been very much right and Ferguson has been very much wrong over the past 3-5, I know who I put greater faith in at this point. But, then again, almost all economists are right until they are wrong.

By the way, has Ferguson offered an opinion on "the Vote?"

DT

P.S. If anyone is looking for an appreciation of just how dismal a science economics really is, I highly recommend reading Money, Blood and Revolution by George Cooper.

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21598650-does-economics-need-rethink-revolutionary-fervour

 

[Rich Goodale]

More from Krugman:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/09/12/maastricht-in-a-kilt/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body

Look, you might not like Krugman because he is a liberal. That's fine. But this is not a matter of the usual left/right political thing.

Scotland's independence folks are trying to chart a path that flies in the face of Econ 101. This experiment has been tried. It doesn't work for well-understood reasons. With all we now know about such things, it's nuts to try to run the experiment one more time.

Bob

Bob

I'm a lifelong Democrat who only criticizes the party when they are too right wing (which includes both Clinton and Obama),

As for Econ 101, it is relatively useless in these days, 40-50years since we last read it.  However, just in case I am wrong, please advise me as to how many of these "experiments" there have been, failed and why.  I can think of at least one counter example, USA 1776.  WE haven't used the pound for a long time, no?

rfg

[Rich Goodale]

David (and Bob) have you read Ferguson's evisceration of Krugman on Huffington Post?  If not, please do.

Rich

[BCrosby]

Rich -

I missed your Ferguson/Krugman footnote. Is that a serious choice? Isn't Ferguson the guy that predicted (a) runaway inflation and currency devaluation in 2009 and (b) that Keynes and his theories should be dismissed because he was gay? (JMK died, btw, a happily married man.)

Ferguson has long since forfeited his right to be taken seriously as an economist. His history is not terribly impressive either, but less baldly wrong than his notions about macroeconomics.

If a man offers advice about economics, surely his track record should have a bearing, no?

Bob

[David_Tepper]

Speaking of Niall Ferguson, he is totally opposed to Scottish independence!

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/harvard-professor-predicts-independence-would-trigger-recession-and-exodus.1410464869

Mr Ferguson said the move would be necessary because his country, Scotland within the United Kingdom, would be "dead".

Mr Ferguson made his comments during a lecture tonight at a speech at Glasgow University, entitled "Kicking the life back into a dying mutual friend: A letter from America".

He told an assembled audience of more than 200: "(If Scotland votes for independence) my first act will be to apply for a US passport.

"Because my country, Scotland in Great Britain, will have been condemned to death."

He said that independence would lead to a "self-inflicted recession" which would trigger spending cuts and see immigration and Scotland's overall population both fall.

"Independence without monetary independence is no independence at all," he said, "as the eurozone crisis has shown us".

"I see Alex Salmond's economic plans as rather reminiscent of the plans that David Murray had for Rangers when he was at that great club".

Finally, something on which Krugman & Ferguson agree.

[BCrosby]

Rich -

I did read his 'eviseration' and Krugman responded. I can't find the PK response, but he shreds Ferguson. Ferguson has no business talking about economics with real economists. He is out of his league. He should stick to his counter-factual histories of World War I.

Bob

[Rich Goodale]

Rich -

I did read his 'eviseration' and Krugman responded. I can't find the PK response, but he shreds Ferguson. Ferguson has no business talking about economics with real economists. He is out of his league. He should stick to his counter-factual histories of World War I.

Bob

Bpb

Please forward a reference to these responses, as I haven't seen them.  I've always thought that Krugman was out of his league when it comes to writing complete sentences, but his responses to Ferguson may prove me wrong!

David

[Rich Goodale]

Speaking of Niall Ferguson, he is totally opposed to Scottish independence!

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/harvard-professor-predicts-independence-would-trigger-recession-and-exodus.1410464869

Mr Ferguson said the move would be necessary because his country, Scotland within the United Kingdom, would be "dead".

Mr Ferguson made his comments during a lecture tonight at a speech at Glasgow University, entitled "Kicking the life back into a dying mutual friend: A letter from America".

He told an assembled audience of more than 200: "(If Scotland votes for independence) my first act will be to apply for a US passport.

"Because my country, Scotland in Great Britain, will have been condemned to death."

He said that independence would lead to a "self-inflicted recession" which would trigger spending cuts and see immigration and Scotland's overall population both fall.

"Independence without monetary independence is no independence at all," he said, "as the eurozone crisis has shown us".

"I see Alex Salmond's economic plans as rather reminiscent of the plans that David Murray had for Rangers when he was at that great club".

Finally, something on which Krugman & Ferguson agree.

Weak argument from Ferguson too.  Where is Adam Smith when we need him!

[David_Tepper]

Rich -

Three posts ago, Ferguson was your authoritative source. Now he isn't? I hope your trust in Mr. Salmond's judgement is not that shallow.

It appears that everyone who disagrees with you offers weak arguments, opinions, is part of a cabal(?) or is out of touch. My advice to you is be careful what you wish for. You just might get it.

DT

[Mark Bourgeois]

Well, this is entertaining. Okay, Rich, how bout knocking down Martin Wolf and Neil Irwin?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/scottish-independence-could-mean-the-unraveling-of-spain--martin-wolf-203224982.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/10/upshot/why-does-scotland-want-independence-its-culture-vs-economics.html?abt=0002&abg=0

(Full disclosure: previously undecided, I am now siding with Krugman, Ferguson, Wolf, and Irwin. Where do I vote?)

As for Southern Europe, here are unemployment rates in July:

Greece 27 percent
Spain 24.47 percent
UK 6.4 percent (June data)

Youth unemployment
Greece 53.1 percent (May data)
Spain 53.5 percent
UK 17.9 percent

[Mark Chaplin]

Rich 2014 figures

Frank where is the Czech Republic without Prague? Or indeed Scotland without Edinburgh?

[Ulrich Mayring]

With all due respect, but these figures are misleading. You can't compare Greece and the UK, these are totally different countries economically, culturally and in laws and taxation and living circumstances. I don't mean to say that Greece is doing well, they're not. But not at the rate that these figures suggest. And nothing has a bearing on Scotland, independent or not.

How about comparing the UK to Germany? Is that sensible? I think not. Germany has a very strong industrial background, whereas the UK is very strong in the finance sector. You will get different numbers for differently structured economies. You can argue that the UK has outsourced all industrial production to the Far East, putting themselves at their mercy. A financial empire can much more easily crumble than one based on brick and mortar. But you can also argue that Germany has been left behind, they're still basking in yesterday's success. In the age of globalisation you just cannot produce at reasonable cost in a country like Germany anymore, what with its high wages and high standards of social security. Germany should have invested in brains, not machines.

Coming back to what Scotland should do: you need to consider a whole range of issues, not just a few isolated numbers. This task is more complex than the average voter and probably the average politician can handle. People are going to vote with their hearts, because that is all they're qualified to do. No one really knows how Scottish independence will turn out in the long run and better yet: no one will know in hindsight how the downvoted alternative would have worked out.

One thing is for sure: it's a 50% bet, so half the economists are going to be right and boast that they knew it all along. Best to ignore the lot of them, vote to the best of your ability and be open to reverting the result of the vote down the road, if need be.

The worst idea would be to deprive yourself of future options by casting the result of the vote in stone. That would be completely undemocratic. Yes, democracy isn't always very efficient, but it is very good at correcting glaring mistakes.

Ulrich

[Bob_Huntley]

 I must say that I have heard some very good arguments from both sides of the debate, but what surprises me is that Pat Mucci has not called for a return to  the  discussion golf architecture.

Bob

Bob

[Peter Pallotta]

This will no doubt say more about me than it will about most of you:

You're treating the 'financial markets' and 'economists' and 'political think tanks' as if (respectively) they abided by fundamental universal laws instead of simply being ever-changing tools for ever-changing clients with ever-changing wants; they were rigorous and dis-interested scientists and mathematicians instead of the doctrine-bound theologians and self-serving magicians that actually are; they stood outside and above the financial markets and economic theories like angelic and omniscient titans, when in fact they are not only influenced by but are often at the service of the very forces they pretend to understand.    

What will happen after a yes vote (or a no vote)? Let me tell you: for the vast majority of folks -- not including of course the economists, journalists, think tankers, and financiers -- life will go on exactly as it always has, with some doing better (financially) than others, with some healthier and/or happier and some much less so, marrying, meeting friends for a pint, retiring, shopping, divorcing, starting a family, gardening, complaining about the euro, making fun of the French, visiting the doctor, trudging off to work, travelling, playing golf (or not), window-shopping, day dreaming, taking their children to school, making dinner, glued to their i-phones, taking weekends in Paris, drinking coffee and visiting the Louvre, donating to charity, getting hammered/plastered/legless, watching the Premier League, praying, buying a house, flirting with a co-worker, moving to the country, watching porn, worrying about death or about life, designing golf courses (or not), renting a flat in London, loving and being loved, crying, laughing, comforting those who mourn, and making ends meet.

Peter