Scotland independence and golf

[Wayne_Kozun]

The threat of a Yes vote is already having an effect on the financial markets - the pound is down this month from 1.66 to 1.616.  And shares in Scottish related entities, including RBS, have been selling off.

This may be a good thing for those of us in the ROW who are planning visits in the near term.

[Wayne_Kozun]

The only reason why you would want to have your own currency (i. e. one that you control - although it is questionable how much political control can really be exerted upon a national bank) is that it gives you the ability to make your products cheaper or more expensive in foreign currencies (i. e. foreign countries).

You need to have your own currency in order to have sovereignty over your monetary policy which is a combination of things but especially interest rates and exchange rate.  A weakening currency has a similar stimulus to lower interest rates - if I remember correctly the Bank of Canada assumes that a 1% reduction in the currency is equivalent to an interest rate reduction of 0.25% but that will depend on the size of exports and imports to your economy.

Even having your currency linked to another currency means that you are giving up some control over interest rates.  If there is a Caledonian that is linked to the GBP then any interest rate differential would lead to speculators getting into the carry trade - Borrowing GBP and Buying Caledonians (assuming that Scotland has higher interest rates).  That would then put pressure on your currency to strengthen.  Having lower interest rates than the UK would have the opposite effect.  This is similar to what happened in 1991-2 with the ERM which was broken by (arguably) George Soros' Quantum Fund.

[David_Tepper]

This column, by the former chairmen of the Labour Party in Scotland, is well worth reading:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2f041834-351a-11e4-aa47-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3CjpKQ25m

[Mark Chaplin]

Is it me or is it outrageous that a serving Scottish soldier in the Black Watch or Scots Guards posted to London or overseas for a couple of years DOESN'T get a vote in the future of their country, yet a Polish raspberry picker who is registered to vote does. The SNP who set the rules of the election should hang their heads in shame.

[Ulrich Mayring]

I read today in the German press that "several 10000" Germans get to vote(*), because they currently live in Scotland. They interviewed some of them and most were in the "Yes" camp. One guy said that the English are a bunch of creepy nationalists, whereas the Scots were more open to foreigners and so he is going for independence. Don't ever say again the Germans have no sense of humour, they are lauging their ass off at the English

On a more serious note, the German press seems to overwhelmingly support the voting rules as "a shining example for modern Europe".

Ulrich

(*) maybe a misprint? Several 1000 would seem more realistic, no?

[Mark Chaplin]

13,000 Germans are eligible to vote and 120,000 other EU nationals are eligible to vote. 800,000 Scots living in the rest of the UK have no voice in the matter.

The Germans maybe laughing at the English but we are less likely to come unstuck as a result of a Yes vote than the Scots.

[Ulrich Mayring]

In hindsight our former chancellor Helmut Kohl probably knew something, when he blew off all attempts at suggesting that something or other concerning German reunification should be voted on by the people. He said he knew exactly what Adenauer had in mind for a reunited Germany and who would doubt the old chap.

Anyhow, if the vote comes out as "No", then there will be another vote in ten years or so. If you let people vote on stuff, they will eventually try out all options available.

Ulrich

[Jon Wiggett]

Ulrich,

if there is a 'No' vote I suspect it will be 25 years at least before another would be contemplated.

[Mark Chaplin]

We were in Australia for the 1999 Republic vote, no sign of another and it's been 15 years. I guess it has gone quiet until the Queen passes.

[Carl Johnson]

Strange but true.  At my North Carolina Ross course/club in North Carolina, USA . . . today, when I arrived at the course, someone had hoisted the Scot's blue and white cross flag in place of our N.C. State flag.  But, this was not based on a vote of our members, or anything like that.  It was a random, rogue event, and should not be taken to reflect our members' intrusion into the affairs of Great Britain.

[Sean Walsh]

Mark,

I find it hard to fathom the lack of interest from a majority of my countrymen for a change in either our head of state or our flag. The monarchists did a fine job of splitting the republican vote when they framed the last referendum. There will be no new referendum at least until the passing of the current queen. Our only hope of changing the flag is if Scotland vote yes and what's left of the UK changes theirs, not a likely outcome. 

Poor fellow my country...

[Malcolm Mckinnon]

Carl,

The Scottish flag is called the Saltire or Saint Andrews Cross. Do you belong to a McConnell golf property?

The English have the red and white Saint George's Cross in addition to the Union Jack.

I love this picture I took this August from a fishing village near downtown Edinburgh , New Haven, where the Saltire is ripping with the wind!! In the background across the Fourth River is Fife!

DSCN0373 by macmalc21, on Flickr

[Jon Wiggett]

Malcolm,

the English have only the one flag. The Union Jack (or Flag) is the flag of the UK.


Jon

[Duncan Cheslett]

If Scotland withdraws from the UK, will the blue bit of the Union Jack disappear?

If so, I would consider it an ideal opportunity to include the Welsh on the Union Jack. Maybe a small red dragon in the centre of the St George's cross???  




Or maybe there's been one lurking there all along...   

[Rich Goodale]

Is it me or is it outrageous that a serving Scottish soldier in the Black Watch or Scots Guards posted to London or overseas for a couple of years DOESN'T get a vote in the future of their country, yet a Polish raspberry picker who is registered to vote does. The SNP who set the rules of the election should hang their heads in shame.

Not true about the overseas soldiers, Mark:

http://www.yesscotland.net/answers/who-can-vote-referendum-scottish-independence

Also, I  pretty sure that all the rules were agreed to by the UK government.

[Ulrich Mayring]

No matter how the vote goes, it will be close - I think we can agree on that. So if roughly half of the country will be dissatisfied with the result, it is very hard to believe that there won't be a politician looking to make a career out of getting in front of the disappointed half.

Ulrich

[David_Tepper]

"much cost, little benefit"

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/72f3c5a4-2e07-11e4-b330-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3DBbxf5ka

[Rich Goodale]

David

The Scottish Research Society (from which you get your quote) is a shill for the pro-Union cabal, even agreed to by the strongly pro-Union BBC.  See below:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28660833

As to the FT article itself, it is just a piece of journalistic puff, with absolutely no substance of relevance that I can see, just sound bites.

As for the recent decline in the $/£ relationship, as JP Morgan wisely said in regard to future values in financial markets:  "They will fluctuate."  To elaborate:

I have lived in Scotland for the great majority of the past 25 years, with most of my sources of income residing in the USA, and have never worried about exchnage rates, becase I have had bank accounts in the UK since 1981, 10 year before I moved here and over that whole 35 year period I have experienced flucutations in the exchange rate from nearly $1.00/£ to over £2.00/£, and it hasn't bothered me a whit, because I know from my expereince that there is an equilibrium and it is ~1.60/£.  Before the financial crisis of 2007+, the rate was <2.00/$, and shortly after (2009) it dropped to ~1.40/pound.  Was that Scotland's fault?  Since then it was very stable in the 2010-2013 ( between 1.55-1.60/£) and then had a "spike" early this year to between 1.551.70/£.  Tha fact it has recenlty gone into the 1.60-1.65/£ range is just "noise" even though the "No!" campaign keeps using the phrase "catastrophic."  They are too clueless for any of us to believe their words, as the attack dogs of NO are people such as Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling each of whom defines the word "clueless" given their culpabilty in the financial crash of 2008.

OK, I do know that the currency effects of separation rather than union are different, but one telling example in the real world that we have is Eire, which separated from the UK not by democratic means but through armed struggle, winning their freedom ifrom "Great Britain and Ireland" in 1922.  They adopted and shadowed the pound for the next 50 years, without any catastophe.  Scotland will neither need nor desire 50 years to sort out it's currency options, and the sonner the better applies to both an Independent Scotland and an Independent RUK.

Are you going to sell your condo if the vote is "NO"?  Hope not, as if so, Dornoch will have to find a new member.

Rich

[Mark Chaplin]

"Service/Crown personnel serving in the UK or overseas in the Armed Forces or with Her Majesty’s Government who are registered to vote in Scotland."

Rich if you are living in the UK you have to be registered to vote where you live. Soldiers based in England are on the local voters register. An Argyle and Sutherland Highlander based at Canterbury, would be registered to vote there. If they went overseas Canterbury would be where they are registered to vote not Scotland. 

[Rich Goodale]

"Service/Crown personnel serving in the UK or overseas in the Armed Forces or with Her Majesty’s Government who are registered to vote in Scotland."

Rich if you are living in the UK you have to be registered to vote where you live. Soldiers based in England are on the local voters register. An Argyle and Sutherland Highlander based at Canterbury, would be registered to vote there. If they went overseas Canterbury would be where they are registered to vote not Scotland. 

Mark

Yes, but I am certain that a significant majority of Scottish soldiers, particularly those that are deployed overseas, will have retained their residence in Scotland and are eligible to vote.  As for the Jock solder that moved from Scotland 10-20 years ago and has been voting from there since then, no, he has no vote, any more than the Jock Hedge Fund Manager with similar residence/voting patterns.  And, agbain, this was agreed to by the UK government.  Take your beef to them, please.

Rich

[Peter Pallotta]

Been thinking about this for a while. And then, when I put out of my mind all the pros and cons (for both "yes" and "no") and the talking heads and the so-called expert analysis and news, I concluded that, either way after the 18th:

All will be well, and all will be well, and all manner of things will be well.

[Rich Goodale]

Been thinking about this for a while. And then, when I put out of my mind all the pros and cons (for both "yes" and "no") and the talking heads and the so-called expert analysis and news, I concluded that, either way after the 18th:

All will be well, and all will be well, and all manner of things will be well.

I fully agree, Peter.

Rich

[Mark Chaplin]

Westminster expecting a firm No rolled over and let the SNP dictate their terms, now it will be a weak No.

[BCrosby]

I would take the concerns noted in the link below very seriously. In short, if what is happening with the Euro worries you, what will happen to an independent Scotland should worry you even more.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/09/10/even-more-on-scotland/?_php=true&_type=blogs&module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body&_r=0

Bob

[Jon Wiggett]

Rich,

are you still pushing Eire as an example for Scotland? Just like earlier in the thread when it did what you are claiming is simply not true. Eire had the Punt which it backed with its own lender of last resort. I like Mark am curious as to why yu have not got the vote having lived here so long.

Jon