The Myth: “Topped shot” bunkers that are offset to the target line but short enough of the target itself to be generally out of play still affect play by subconsciously pushing golfers away from the hazard. See, for example, the 10th hole at Lawsonia as discussed by Ran in the Lawsonia course profile.
This bunker 60 yards short of the 10th green makes the golfer want to cheat to the left and as a result…
…the seven foot deep left greenside bunker gets plenty of play.
This is a technique that a lot of Golden Age architects used. Langford employed it with regularity, as the par 3 with an offset bunker well short of the putting surface is seen on several of his courses. The “study” in this thread centers on the 6th hole at Clovernook, a hole virtually identical to the 10th at Lawsonia aside from its being 60 yards shorter.
If the myth is true, then shots hit from the 6th tee at Clovernook should show a tendency to end up left of the target, the result of a pull from a golfer who subconsciously steered his shot away from the gaping hazard that dominates the view from the tee but is generally out of play for any decently struck shot. If this indeed proves to be the case, it’s a cunning piece of design as the 6th green tilts considerably from left to right, making the right side the preferred miss.
The StudyThe 6th hole at Clovernook is located next to a practice green, which makes it an easy place to observe play. I watched 82 golfers play the hole since April, and tracked where their tee shots ended up. Here’s a breakdown (rounding accounts for why this totals to 101%):
% of players to hit the green: 32%
% of players online with the green but short of the putting surface: 15%
% of players who miss the green left: 22%
% of players who missed the green right: 32%
% of players whose shot finished within 10 yards of being online with the flag: 27%
% of players whose shot finished 10+ yards left of the flag: 37%
% of players whose shot finished 10+ yards right of the flag: 37%
ConclusionAs you can see, more players actually missed the green to the right than to the left. Yet, dispersion on each side of the pin was identical, with the pin more frequently placed on the right side of the green than the left during the days that I observed. It is worth noting that only one player ended up in the bunker.
Of course, this is a small sample size and there’s no control group. To really see whether players are more likely to miss to the left on Clovernook’s 6th than they would be if the topped shot bunker were to be eliminated, a similar observation would need to be done on a same-length hole with similar playing qualities but no such bunker. Another thing that may be worth noting is that, as a private course, most of the people I observed are intimately familiar with the hole. They may have learned over repeat plays that the ideal miss is to the right and thus learned to ignore the topped shot bunker.
Qualitatively, though, it certainly appeared that any subconscious effect the bunker has on a player is completely overridden by the conscious and subconscious desire to get as close to the pin as possible. In general, it was quite clear that shot dispersal followed the location of the pin. I’m not smart enough to quantify that beyond the data posted above, but it was easy to notice when watching players hit.
The myth isn’t busted, but it’s close. After watching 82 rounds, I would be willing to wager that players on a “control” hole with no topped shot bunker will show a similar dispersal that reflects the line to the pin is the ultimate driver of where their shots finish.