Trump's plans for Turnberry

[Michael Graham]

They had a media event the last couple of days (my colleague Toby was there, I was on holiday in France!) so there'll be quite a lot of Turnberry stuff coming out in the next few days

Adam,


Do you know what your colleague's thoughts on the changes were? So far most of the reviews I've read since the media day earlier this week focused on the photo friendly stretches along the water rather than talk about how the changes affect how the course plays.

[Adam Lawrence]

I haven't talked to Toby about his detailed thoughts, but when I saw the course a month ago, I was looking pretty closely at the inland holes as well as the coastal ones. There's some good things there for sure, for example:


* the restoration of a Mackenzie Ross huge sand scar bunker on the right side of 13
* alterations to the green on 15 enabling them to put a pin on the right side, adjacent to the big drop-off
* new fourteenth green higher up, in the middle of the old ninth fairway
* I think 17 and 18 are both significantly improved holes

[Howard Riefs]

Cause:
“Report indicates Donald Trump's Scottish golf courses have lost more than $30 million”
http://www.golfdigest.com/story/donald-trumps-scottish-golf-courses-have-lost-over-dollar30-million-accounts-reveal-united-states-fec-filing-discrepancies
 
"Turnberry golf course reopens after £200m renovation"
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/14528104.Donald_Trump_s_Turnberry_golf_course_reopens_after___200m_renovation/



Effect:
Trump Turnberry raises The Ailsa course’s greens fees for 2017 prime season (May to October) as much as 30% 
 
Hotel Guest
Mon to Fri: from £195 (2016) to £225 (2017)
Sat & Sun: from £210 (2016) to £250 (2017)
 
Visitor
Mon to Fri: from £250 (2016) to £325 (2017)
Sat & Sun: from £275 (2016) to £350 (2017)

http://www.trumpturnberry.com/golf-green-fees

[BHoover]

Interesting Washington Post article from today — Trump Turnerry lost $4.5mm in 2017, and Trump has sunk over $200mm into it without turning a profit.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-scotland-resort-lost-45-million-in-2017-new-report-says/2018/10/04/3821aa66-c71b-11e8-b2b5-79270f9cce17_story.html

[Lou_Duran]

I suspect that most closely-held corporations tend to report breakeven results or losses.  My only visit to Turnberry showed a nearly full tee sheet and plenty of money being spent.  For the most part, Trump's foray into golf has been opportunistic.  If he is losing money on operations at Turnberry, he is probably more than offsetting it with the appreciation of the property (not too different from sports franchises).

Prior to the Ireland Buda some three years ago, I contacted the Trump Doonbeg course and could not get a tee time.  I asked if it would be possible to play if I stayed at the property and was told that hospitality was also sold out for most of the summer.

The exception to this was a visit to Trump International (Balmedie) where we found the course to be nearly deserted, a wide-open unattended pro shop, and only 10 or so folks in the restaurant.  Like others, I thought that maybe Trump would move to sell it after he leaves office, then someone sent me the following:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/trump-sons-press-ahead-with-near-200-million-investment-for-scottish-.html

Hate him or not, I would not bet against him getting the last laugh.

[Matt Bielawa]

Agreed.  If he/they really invested $200 Million, or something near it, that would create an extremely large annual depreciation/amortization expense, and would be difficult to overcome as far as accounting profit goes.  However, whether it's cash flow positive is a completely different question--I'd surely think so.

I suspect that most closely-held corporations tend to report breakeven results or losses.  My only visit to Turnberry showed a nearly full tee sheet and plenty of money being spent.  For the most part, Trump's foray into golf has been opportunistic.  If he is losing money on operations at Turnberry, he is probably more than offsetting it with the appreciation of the property (not too different from sports franchises).

Prior to the Ireland Buda some three years ago, I contacted the Trump Doonbeg course and could not get a tee time.  I asked if it would be possible to play if I stayed at the property and was told that hospitality was also sold out for most of the summer.

The exception to this was a visit to Trump International (Balmedie) where we found the course to be nearly deserted, a wide-open unattended pro shop, and only 10 or so folks in the restaurant.  Like others, I thought that maybe Trump would move to sell it after he leaves office, then someone sent me the following:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/trump-sons-press-ahead-with-near-200-million-investment-for-scottish-.html

Hate him or not, I would not bet against him getting the last laugh.

[Jeff Schley]

Agreed.  If he/they really invested $200 Million, or something near it, that would create an extremely large annual depreciation/amortization expense, and would be difficult to overcome as far as accounting profit goes.  However, whether it's cash flow positive is a completely different question--I'd surely think so.

I suspect that most closely-held corporations tend to report breakeven results or losses.  My only visit to Turnberry showed a nearly full tee sheet and plenty of money being spent.  For the most part, Trump's foray into golf has been opportunistic.  If he is losing money on operations at Turnberry, he is probably more than offsetting it with the appreciation of the property (not too different from sports franchises).

Prior to the Ireland Buda some three years ago, I contacted the Trump Doonbeg course and could not get a tee time.  I asked if it would be possible to play if I stayed at the property and was told that hospitality was also sold out for most of the summer.

The exception to this was a visit to Trump International (Balmedie) where we found the course to be nearly deserted, a wide-open unattended pro shop, and only 10 or so folks in the restaurant.  Like others, I thought that maybe Trump would move to sell it after he leaves office, then someone sent me the following:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/trump-sons-press-ahead-with-near-200-million-investment-for-scottish-.html

Hate him or not, I would not bet against him getting the last laugh.

Matt, good point.  One would want to check out the Free Cash Flow which would add back in the amortization/depreciation.

[Ben Attwood]

There are more nefarious aspersions regarding the finances of Trump's involvement in Scottish golf

https://www.newyorker.com/news/swamp-chronicles/where-did-donald-trump-get-200-million-dollars-to-buy-his-money-losing-scottish-golf-club

[Rich Goodale]

Trump paid c. $30-50m to the Asian owners that were hemmoraging badly.  He cannot have paid as much as $5m to Mackenzie and Ebert to fix up the course.  Maybe another $10-20m to fix up the hotel (which really needed it).  So.......


.....the New Yorker article was very much fake news.  Shame on them.  William Shawn will be rolling in his grave........

[Mark Fedeli]

Trump paid c. $30-50m to the Asian owners that were hemmoraging badly.  He cannot have paid as much as $5m to Mackenzie and Ebert to fix up the course.  Maybe another $10-20m to fix up the hotel (which really needed it).  So.......


.....the New Yorker article was very much fake news.  Shame on them.  William Shawn will be rolling in his grave........

As mentioned in the article, the 200m number comes directly from the Trump Organization: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-37655823


I'm sure they exaggerated for dramatic effect, but nonetheless, I haven't seen anything that debunks the fact that Trump himself provided that number.

[BHoover]

There are more nefarious aspersions regarding the finances of Trump's involvement in Scottish golf

https://www.newyorker.com/news/swamp-chronicles/where-did-donald-trump-get-200-million-dollars-to-buy-his-money-losing-scottish-golf-club

The organization’s Russian “investors” probably needed some place to put their cash.

[SL_Solow]

I enjoy those who believe that he will come out on top financially.  It belies most of what we accept as a given on other threads about golf course economics.  For those of us who have been on the inside of some of his "successful" bankruptcies, this view also flies in the face of real world experience with his financial acumen.

[JMEvensky]

I enjoy those who believe that he will come out on top financially.  It belies most of what we accept as a given on other threads about golf course economics.  For those of us who have been on the inside of some of his "successful" bankruptcies, this view also flies in the face of real world experience with his financial acumen.

I enjoyed that 3 sentence takedown. Hope you're well.